Political Posts

[Dinar]

18 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

It's not so black and white.  There are options for escalation between current support and some type of direct NATO-RU conflict.  That is what we are witnessing in fact.  Increased supply and more sophisticated weapons can be delivered to Ukraine.  Some type of private military, a parallel to Wagner could be employed, it already is to a very limited extent by virtue of volunteers.  Drones play a significant role and can be upscaled by western donors.

Who is going to pay for all of this?  Ukraine needs $50bn per year to fight and probably a trillion for reconstruction.  There is not a chance in hell the US will come up with $25bn per year for the next five years.  

[Xerxes]

https://youtu.be/dDoiqH66DLM?feature=shared

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Who is going to pay for all of this?  Ukraine needs $50bn per year to fight and probably a trillion for reconstruction.  There is not a chance in hell the US will come up with $25bn per year for the next five years.  

Probably some combination of Ukraine, US, EU.  It's really peanuts compared to alternatives such as handing over the region to RF.   Keep in mind the US is spending somewhere around $800B per year on their military and I don't think that includes everything either.   Spending on the Iraq wars, I have seen that pegged at over $1T (off top of my head).  These are in fact sustainable numbers but of course it would be better to just have some kind of peace agreement.

[John Hjorth]

8 hours ago, ValueArb said:

I think there is a great detail of doubt. Accidental explosions produce similar damage as intentional explosions. No one has any credible motivation to sabotage the pipelines, Gazprom has a long history of similar accidental pipeline explosions due to its incompetence, there is little incentive for investigators to say it wasn’t sabotage, and I haven’t seen any evidence they investigated the possibility of an accident or even had the proper industry tech experts involved.

 

The above is not correct.

 

Wikipedia : 2022 Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage.

[UK]

11 hours ago, ValueArb said:

I think there is a great detail of doubt. Accidental explosions produce similar damage as intentional explosions. No one has any credible motivation to sabotage the pipelines, Gazprom has a long history of similar accidental pipeline explosions due to its incompetence, there is little incentive for investigators to say it wasn’t sabotage, and I haven’t seen any evidence they investigated the possibility of an accident or even had the proper industry tech experts involved.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-sabotage-probe-turns-to-clues-inside-poland-4ed20422

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

[UK]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

Who is going to pay for all of this?  Ukraine needs $50bn per year to fight and probably a trillion for reconstruction.  There is not a chance in hell the US will come up with $25bn per year for the next five years.  

 

Since I am entitled to a different opinion...:)

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/09/12/the-annual-cost-of-the-war-in-afghanistan-since-2001-infographic/

 

If US spent almost 1T or 50 B per year in this case for God knows what reasons, I would argue it would be almost no brainer to spend half of this sum yearly for some time in Ukraine for a many good reasons. Not least that the large part of the current support is via older military equipment, due for replacement, but more importantly, because fighting in this case is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by almost 90 per cent of its population. Europe in general and Germany in particular should bear more of the financial burden though. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by UK

[John Hjorth]

I'm reading Roger Lowenstein : "When genius failed" about the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management as leisure reading by now. I have to say it's awesome! 

 

From the very start of Chapter 1 with the title : 'Meriwether' :

 

Quote

If there is one article of faith that John Meriwether discovered at Salomon Brothers, it was to ride your losses until they turned into gains. ...

 

 - It fits this situation perfectly, too! Once you have spent as much as just a few dollars as a state or institution on supporting Ukraine in this situation, you are beyond the point of no return, you are bound and forced to continue to average in on the situation.

 

It's not like Asterix in Britain at tea time :

 

 

Youtube : Asterix in Britain: it's tea time!.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Quite evident to me that it feels worrying, disturbing and upsetting for members of CoBF to think about this!

Edited September 20, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Luke]

43 minutes ago, UK said:

Not least that the large part of the current support is via older military equipment, due for replacement, but more importantly, because fighting in this case is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by almost 90 per cent of its population. Europe in general and Germany in particular should bear more of the financial burden though. 

"Fighting is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by 90% of its population". 

 

Where do you have the data from to make these conclusions? As far as I am aware, they are FORCING men to kill or damage themselves for this war. (https://www.zeit.de/zeit-magazin/leben/2022-03/ukraine-russland-krieg-maenner-widerstand-flucht). They are picking up men straight from the streets, forcing them to fight, the exact thing Russia is doing to their citizens. Are the 90% of the population who are for the war safe in germany and don't have to fight? (women). How are they now doing research about the state of this country when there is maximum chaos?

 

 

Why should Germans bear more of the financial burden than say other European countries? Top 10% of taxpayers already payed 5000€ per person last year if you calculate current costs for this war. Russia has nuclear weapons, ukraine wont win and we also wont win a nuclear war. We should stop sending all these weapons to an aggressive Ukrainian nationalist leader and let russia and ukraine figure it out. 

 

 

Everything is so damn well orchestrated that as a passive spectator you can not not cheer for ukraine, of course you only see the heroic moves from ukraine and the evil moves from putin and its soldiers. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Luca

[UK]

24 minutes ago, Luca said:

"Fighting is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by 90% of its population". 

 

Where do you have the data from to make these conclusions? As far as I am aware, they are FORCING men to kill or damage themselves for this war. (https://www.zeit.de/zeit-magazin/leben/2022-03/ukraine-russland-krieg-maenner-widerstand-flucht). They are picking up men straight from the streets, forcing them to fight, the exact thing Russia is doing to their citizens. Are the 90% of the population who are for the war safe in germany and don't have to fight? (women). How are they now doing research about the state of this country when there is maximum chaos?

 

 

Why should Germans bear more of the financial burden than say other European countries? Top 10% of taxpayers already payed 5000€ per person last year if you calculate current costs for this war. Russia has nuclear weapons, ukraine wont win and we also wont win a nuclear war. We should stop sending all these weapons to an aggressive Ukrainian nationalist leader and let russia and ukraine figure it out. 

 

 

Everything is so damn well orchestrated that as a passive spectator you can not not cheer for ukraine, of course you only see the heroic moves from ukraine and the evil moves from putin and its soldiers. 

 

Luca, I really suggest you to read or believe less of the propaganda by Russia or China!

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nearly-90-ukrainians-oppose-territorial-concessions-russia-poll-2022-09-15/

 

I knew it was not good idea to point a finger:), but maybe because Germany still does not spend even 2 per cent from GDP as per NATO requirement, while Poland is already on its way up to 4 per cent? Not to mention, that the whole damned situation was also perhaps encouraged quite substantially by the policies of Germany (and former US administration) in the last 10 years. But I beg you not to ask elaborate me further, this was bad idea already:). In general I love and wish success for Germany as much as US!. Also looking forward to see permanently stationed German brigade in my country as soon as possible:)

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by UK

[Luke]

9 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Luca, I really suggest you to read or believe less of the propaganda by Russia or China!

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nearly-90-ukrainians-oppose-territorial-concessions-russia-poll-2022-09-15/

Where did i read or believed russian propaganda? I sent you an article by one of the biggest respected newspaper agencies that talks about the absolute horrific moves by the ukrainian government picking up young men to force them killing themselves in this war. They dont even want to but are forced!  (same as in russa btw). I dont believe everything the russians say but i also dont blindly copy the "western party line". 

 

 

"canvassed the views of 2,000 people on Sept. 7-13", conducted by the country that is fighting this war and has strong interests in all the weapons they can get...you tell me how reliable that is to ask 2000 people....

 

Its is simple: Ukraine has different interests than we do and thats a very important point of the debate. Selensky doesnt want deescalation. 

9 minutes ago, UK said:

I knew t it was not good idea to point finger:), but maybe because Germany still does not spend even 2 per cent from GDP as per NATO requirement, while Poland is already on its way up to 4 per cent?

What does that have to do with anything? This is not our war to begin with so there should no finger pointing to begin with.

9 minutes ago, UK said:

Not to mention, that the whole damned situation was also perhaps encouraged quite substantially by the policies of Germany (and former US administration) of the last 10 years.

Yes, there should have never been any discussion at all about ukraine with european union/nato etc but that doesnt make it smart to give ukraine all these weapons now and escalate the situation further together.

9 minutes ago, UK said:

But I beg you not to ask elaborate me further, this was bad idea already:). In general I love and wish success for Germany as much as US!. And also looking forward to see permanently stationed German brigade in my country as soon as possible:)

 

Yes, same!

Edited September 20, 2023 by Luca

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-tactics-put-russia-on-the-defensive-in-the-black-sea-4d3f492d?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

Commercial vessels have entered Ukraine’s main port of Odesa without asking permission from Russia for the first time since the war began—showing just how much the balance of power has changed in the Black Sea. By imposing an asymmetrical war that relies on domestically produced naval drones and missiles, and that targets Russians ships in their own home bases, Ukraine has eroded much of Russia’s vaunted naval superiority. Now, it is taking the battle to Russia itself.

[Dinar]

@UK, @no_free_lunch, there has not been a poll done in at least a year of US citizens asking whether or not they would be willing to pay $100 per person per year to support the war in Ukraine.  You may think $25bn per annum is a small price to pay, but US citizens think otherwise.   Also, nobody is talking about handing the region over to Russia.  However, it is NOT the job of US taxpayers to support Ukraine.  It is the job of Ukrainians.  

Yes, we are obligated to defend Poland and the Baltics due to treaty obligations.

 

Meanwhile, let's not forget, Ukraine has never existed as a country.  Western Ukraine was part of Austro-Hungarian empire for centuries, and eastern Ukraine was called Little Russia for centuries, and part of Russian empire, and was Russian speaking.  Hell, Kiev was called the mother of Russian cities.  

 

[Luke]

 

Sadly, we have really the most incompetent people in our government, can't be more dissatisfied with our foreign minister that tries everything to make German relations with other countries more difficult and continues to escalate tensions to higher and higher levels.

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Luca

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

@UK, @no_free_lunch, there has not been a poll done in at least a year of US citizens asking whether or not they would be willing to pay $100 per person per year to support the war in Ukraine.  You may think $25bn per annum is a small price to pay, but US citizens think otherwise.   Also, nobody is talking about handing the region over to Russia.  However, it is NOT the job of US taxpayers to support Ukraine.  It is the job of Ukrainians.  

Yes, we are obligated to defend Poland and the Baltics due to treaty obligations.

 

Meanwhile, let's not forget, Ukraine has never existed as a country.  Western Ukraine was part of Austro-Hungarian empire for centuries, and eastern Ukraine was called Little Russia for centuries, and part of Russian empire, and was Russian speaking.  Hell, Kiev was called the mother of Russian cities.  

 

Oh well, actually it has existed for centuries and in fact, it's now a sovereign country.  If Russia wants it in it's sphere better ways to do it than at gun point but I know that's how Russia rolls. 

 

Here they even made a wikipedia page to help clear things up for you.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Oh well, actually it has existed for centuries and in fact, it's now a sovereign country.  If Russia wants it in it's sphere better ways to do it than at gun point but I know that's how Russia rolls. 

 

Here they even made a wikipedia page to help clear things up for you.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

 

I coulden't have phrased it better than @no_free_lunch above.

 

Also : 

 

Wikipedia : Ukraine - Declaration of Independence.

 

Please also here note which countries were among the first three contries to recognize this on December 2^nd 1991 : Poland, Canada and ? ... Russia!.

[tnp20]

This is a bit off topic but last comment. There is a bit of politics here as it relates to leadership so be forewarned. 

 

Will China take over USA as number 1 economy in the globe ?

 

It all depends on the leadership of both countries in the coming years.

 

Xi has changed the course of China that has made it less attractive for foreign investors and foreign entrepreneurs and brilliant innovators around the world. If this direction continues, China is unlikely to take over USA (and USA led order), however Xi has at most another 10 years and of course China can course correct back on the old path (before Xi ) but by then demographics starts acting as a head wind so it becomes more difficult. Even with perfect execution and more reasonable Xi, the odds are low except if USA really screws the pooch, which by the way is not out of question on the current trends in USA.

 

The current state of leadership and politics in USA is loosing friends all over the world. The MAGA crowd and nutty republicans in house  and nutty left is doing a great job in threatening our democracy and constitutional way of life and also scaring important foreigners and allies  with the crazy rhetoric. It could be a phase and USA has always got its act together when faced with a real challenge (China currently) and perhaps it bounces back and gets back on right track but for USA to continue to beat China, it needs 3 things: (i) Trust of important allies ..Japan, Germany, India, France, Indonesia, Brazil ( support for dollar and support for US led world order/miltary) and (ii) Continued full force immigration and attraction of the best talent and entrepreneurs in the world (iii) Open society and free markets.

 

None of this is a given, and the thread of history can go in many directions. My best guess is despite the worst of leadership in the USA, there are enough entrenched advantages that we can take a lot of damage before we start loosing on the 3 important things above and give China an opening.

 

But the investment case for China, and Chinese companies is not if its number 1 GDP, but its the case of despite negatives modelled into the narrative, how will these companies perform. Many great Chinese companies are so undervalued that even if China grows without being number 1, these companies do well and investment in them produce good returns. Many US companies are so over valued that despite USA remaining number 1 GDP these companies many not do as well because it has to work off the over-valuation.

 

Tencents and BABA have the (i) E-payments business (ii) Cloud/digitazation business and (iii) AI business which will have tail wind for many years to come.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by tnp20

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

... Sadly, we have really the most incompetent people in our government, can't be more dissatisfied with our foreign minister that tries everything to make German relations with other countries more difficult and continues to escalate tensions to higher and higher levels.

 

Be careful with what you are posting, @Luca! If you were mentioning the name you would likely be at risk for being called severely biased, based on your personal misogyny. 

 

It's great to a place to steam out here, right!? 

[Spekulatius]

25 minutes ago, tnp20 said:

Will China take over USA as number 1 economy in the globe ?

For Chinese stocks to work, 6% GDP growth or taking over the USA as the largest economy is not needed and I would argue even that looking at these things is mostly irrelevant.

 

For Chinese stocks to work, XI needs to leave the economy alone more and let it do what it (or the people) wants to do. Whether it growth by 3% or 6% does not matter all that much, especially if the extra 3% growth may come from prestige projects with very little economic utility.

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Oh well, actually it has existed for centuries and in fact, it's now a sovereign country.  If Russia wants it in it's sphere better ways to do it than at gun point but I know that's how Russia rolls. 

 

Here they even made a wikipedia page to help clear things up for you.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

When has Ukraine existed for centuries?  Your own link shows that it was not an independent country before 1991.  In any case, you can argue whatever you want, but the point is there is no support on the American street for helping Ukraine.   

[Luke]

45 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Be careful with what you are posting, @Luca! If you were mentioning the name you would likely be at risk for being called severely biased, based on your personal misogyny. 

 

It's great to a place to steam out here, right!? 

Hahaha, i dont even do that anymore. I also defended her about the 7000€ a month hair stylist budget but whenever i hear her talk with that broken english, harming relations with the biggest trading partners, i get a crisis. Its great to steam yes

Edited September 20, 2023 by Luca

[no_free_lunch]

34 minutes ago, Dinar said:

When has Ukraine existed for centuries?  Your own link shows that it was not an independent country before 1991.  In any case, you can argue whatever you want, but the point is there is no support on the American street for helping Ukraine.   

I never said as a sovereign.  Always under different yokes.  Poland and Russia in particular.  However, they were always independent culturally and this is what led to the creation of the country, like so many others, post Soviet breakup.

 

The US will support Ukraine, I believe, not because man on the street wants it to too but because the politicians know there is no real choice.  It really comes down to fighting your enemy for a fraction of the cost.  The US knows Russia is their enemy, Russia constantly reminds us of this when they threaten nuclear holocaust.  So to counteract them for $25B, is really nothing.  It's about 3% of the US defense budget.   Contain Russia so the US is free to fight China, if needed, that is I think the US thought process.

[cubsfan]

35 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I never said as a sovereign.  Always under different yokes.  Poland and Russia in particular.  However, they were always independent culturally and this is what led to the creation of the country, like so many others, post Soviet breakup.

 

The US will support Ukraine, I believe, not because man on the street wants it to too but because the politicians know there is no real choice.  It really comes down to fighting your enemy for a fraction of the cost.  The US knows Russia is their enemy, Russia constantly reminds us of this when they threaten nuclear holocaust.  So to counteract them for $25B, is really nothing.  It's about 3% of the US defense budget.   Contain Russia so the US is free to fight China, if needed, that is I think the US thought process.

yeah, exactly the point. Protect Western Europe. Protect the South China Sea and Allies. The galvanizing of NATO was long overdue. That’s the real silver lining on this war, regardless if Ukraine territory is lost. 
 

China is watching Europe and the US closely.

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

I never said as a sovereign.  Always under different yokes.  Poland and Russia in particular.  However, they were always independent culturally and this is what led to the creation of the country, like so many others, post Soviet breakup.

 

The US will support Ukraine, I believe, not because man on the street wants it to too but because the politicians know there is no real choice.  It really comes down to fighting your enemy for a fraction of the cost.  The US knows Russia is their enemy, Russia constantly reminds us of this when they threaten nuclear holocaust.  So to counteract them for $25B, is really nothing.  It's about 3% of the US defense budget.   Contain Russia so the US is free to fight China, if needed, that is I think the US thought process.

Politicians have to respond to voters.  There is a choice, not to support Ukraine, and let the Europeans pay for it.  Russia is NOT our enemy, and has never been one.  We fought two wars against Germany, two against England, one against Japan, and not one against Russia.  

In any case, it is irrelevant what you and I think.  What matters is what man on the street in US wants, and he wants nothing to do with Ukraine.  Let the Germans & the French and the Lithuanians/Latvians/Estonians/Danes/Czechs and company for this is.  This is their problem, not ours.

[John Hjorth]

17 minutes ago, Dinar said:

In any case, it is irrelevant what you and I think.  What matters is what man on the street in US wants, and he wants nothing to do with Ukraine.  Let the Germans & the French and the Lithuanians/Latvians/Estonians/Danes/Czechs and company for this is.  This is their problem, not ours.

 

No it's not. What matters is this below [, and all here on CoBF know it, and by the way, all here on CoBF also know, that you also know it]  :

 

Quote

Article 1

The Parties undertake, as set forth in the Charter of the United Nations, to settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.

Article 2

The Parties will contribute toward the further development of peaceful and friendly international relations by strengthening their free institutions, by bringing about a better understanding of the principles upon which these institutions are founded, and by promoting conditions of stability and well-being. They will seek to eliminate conflict in their international economic policies and will encourage economic collaboration between any or all of them.

Article 3

In order more effectively to achieve the objectives of this Treaty, the Parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, will maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack.

Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

Article 6 ¹

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

• on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France ², on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
• on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

Article 7

This Treaty does not affect, and shall not be interpreted as affecting in any way the rights and obligations under the Charter of the Parties which are members of the United Nations, or the primary responsibility of the Security Council for the maintenance of international peace and security.

 

[Dinar]

@John Hjorth, Ukraine is NOT part of NATO, so what is your point?