Political Posts

[alpha]

So the markets are up based on news of 125% tariffs on China... unreal

[frommi]

10% tariffs except china for all is what i read . Which is still a lot of tariffs?

[Castanza]

4 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

The former Citigroup chief executive infamously said in July 2007, referring to the firm's leveraged lending practices: “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing.”

- NYT

 

[Blake Hampton]

Oh also, the 10% flat rate is $290 billion on $2.9 trillion of good imports from countries besides China. That is $290 B + $550 B = $840 B of tariffs coming, around $6,300 per U.S. household.

Maybe better geopolitically, but essentially a nothing-burger when considering tariffs.

 

Edit: these are based on 2024 import figures. 2025 is likely to be more.

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

Just now, Castanza said:

 

 

You seem upset.

[LC]

This may just be recency bias, but I think one of the best investing lessons from Warren & Charlie is that it pays more to focus on the micro versus the macro.

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, LC said:

This may just be recency bias, but I think one of the best investing lessons from Warren & Charlie is that it pays more to focus on the micro versus the macro.

That's true when the micro exists in a rational macro. How do you analyze the micro for a car company or a pharma company when you have no idea what the macro will be for you in 30 days or 3 years. 

[Simba]

This is just ridiculous- this is a spin the wheel- where the wheel seems to be shifting pretty frequently

 

Now tariffs are paused up to 10% for 90 days? What comes in 89 days ? 

[Castanza]

1 minute ago, Simba said:

What comes in 89 days ?

 

Hopefully more volatility 

[gary17]

I have a hard time undertsanding his English.  So no tarrifs for 90 days. And after that 10% tarrifs  ?  

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, gary17 said:

I have a hard time undertsanding his English.  So no tarrifs for 90 days. And after that 10% tarrifs  ?  

 

Reciprocal tariffs on all countries besides China paused for 90 days. 10% tariffs for all countries stick, China now has a tariff of 125%.

[Red Lion]

51 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

And we get to do it all over again in 90 days. 

 

Who wants to bet the admin released a preview to selected friends a couple of hours in advance?

 

And if so would the insider trading be somehow protected by executive privilege under the Trump v. United States Supreme Court decision? It certainly seems plausible, particularly if Trump was trading on this in his individual capacity. 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Red Lion

[Blake Hampton]

"In a strange turn of events, the president seems to have added another 10 percent tariff to Canada and Mexico. Asked earlier if the 10 percent tariff extended to those countries, Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, said that it did. And a White House official clarified for me just now that that was the case. Previously, Canada and Mexico had been exempted from this round of “reciprocal” tariffs, though they still faced a 25 percent tariff on many of their goods that the president imposed last month."

 

Nice.

[Dalal.Holdings]

90 days of negotiations. I doubt the friends get their rates jacked up if they comply. China remains in the doghouse ?

 

Does EU get 10% or are they ineligible due to their retaliation today? Those guys in Brussels are really clueless

[Red Lion]

Interesting to see the monster rally in the stock markets, but the 10 year yield is still up another 15 basis point. 

[Blake Hampton]

Does anybody need any more evidence that the stock market is stupid?

 

Short-term anyway right?

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Dalal.Holdings]

Quote

Bloomberg reporting -- and that of other outlets -- had suggested that Navarro played an outsize role in the bigger-than-expected tariff hikes, and that Bessent had appeared not to have carried the day. 

 

Now that the pause is in, Navarro is saying the administration’s all on the same page and this has unfolded just as it ought to have. I suspect questions will remain.

 

Navarro definitely pushing the quack economics...now overruled

[gfp]

5 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Does anybody need any more evidence that the stock market is stupid.

 

Short-term anyway right?

 

You aren't going to get too many invitations to the pie counter Blake!  Make sure to take a full helping when you get yours

[gary17]

14 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

Reciprocal tariffs on all countries besides China paused for 90 days. 10% tariffs for all countries stick, China now has a tariff of 125%.

i thoguht the 10% base line tarrifs is part of the reciprocal.   anyway i am sure whatever the market reaction, they figured out how good or bad it is.  i can't keep up with the different tarrifs, specific industry ones, the exemptions for USMCA, and then the reciprocal,  too complicated.

[Gregmal]

Man I really need to trademark the COBF Hallmark Buy Signal index. Works every time. 

[73 Reds]

Just now, Gregmal said:

Man I really need to trademark the COBF Hallmark Buy Signal index. Works every time. 

LOL, Trump did it for you this morning.

[Longtermlens]

Exactly right Greg -  every single time you call it, it hits. Remarkable consistency. Your ability to stay unemotional when everyone else is losing their heads continues to impress. Mad respect.

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Man I really need to trademark the COBF Hallmark Buy Signal index. Works every time. 

 

Oh shit, that's funny.

[villainx]

11 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Does anybody need any more evidence that the stock market is stupid.

 

Short-term anyway right?

 

Counting or weighing?

[mcliu]

So this whole thing was a set-up to put massive tariffs on China?