Political Posts

[dealraker]

4 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

That's just it - I don't estimate or project.  Just call 'em like I see 'em.  And we've seen this all before.

Ya ain't seen Trump in control until now.  Now's when the fun starts.  

[Castanza]

New Dan Carlin just dropped
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/common-sense-with-dan-carlin/id155974141?i=1000700526085
 

Time to take a step back on American Politics folks….the pendulum nightmare we are locked in ain’t working 

 

https://pod.wave.co/podcast/common-sense-with-dan-carlin/show-324-whats-good-for-the-goose-ea24d501
 

Some solid notes on the podcast. Best part is about Bruce Ackermans book and subsequent predictions from 2010.

Edited March 31, 2025 by Castanza

[cubsfan]

31 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Ya ain't seen Trump in control until now.  Now's when the fun starts.  

 

Correct.   Southern Border slammed shut in 2 weeks. Simply amazing.

[73 Reds]

18 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Ya ain't seen Trump in control until now.  Now's when the fun starts.  

Well, if fun includes any of the following, its already begun:

Not telling me what to say, do or think.

Not telling me who to hire outside of long-established definitions of "discrimination".

Not promoting, funding and turning a blind eye to endless wars.

Removing dangerous illegals and deterring future illegals from entering this country.

Promoting merit-based anything rather than quotas.

Strengthening a military whose numbers were diminishing.

Making public statements you may not like but at least you can understand.

Spending my tax dollars more wisely and eliminating a lot of spending I don't support.

Recognizing people for who they are, not what they want to be in some misguided, alternate universe. 

Endorsing equal justice for everyone, including those with whom you disagree and have differences.

Promoting family values that got us here.

 

 

[Gregmal]

That all sounds great but many people had absolutely no problem with the way things were before. That’s why luxury voting became en vogue…

[thepupil]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

That all sounds great but many people had absolutely no problem with the way things were before. That’s why luxury voting became en vogue…

 

what is luxury voting? 

 

are you referring to "luxury beliefs"...as in non-traditional social mores held by the upper class who is often immune from the consequences of the resulting policies or contradicted by the actions of the upper class such as 

 

1. not believing in traditional family structure while getting married, having kids, in a traditional family structure

2. being "soft on crime" while living in crime-less sheltered expensive enclaves 

 

or something else?

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

what is luxury voting? 

 

are you referring to "luxury beliefs"...as in non-traditional social mores held by the upper class who is often immune from the consequences of the resulting policies or contradicted by the actions of the upper class such as 

 

1. not believing in traditional family structure while getting married, having kids, in a traditional family structure

2. being "soft on crime" while living in crime-less sheltered expensive enclaves 

 

or something else?

Luxury voting. Kinda similar to what you describe. Where you’re well off enough that you can knowingly vote for stupid shit like pro tax, pro crime, pro big government policy because casting the vote scratches “other” itches and you’ll likely be OK regardless. 

[thepupil]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Luxury voting. Kinda similar to what you describe. Where you’re well off enough that you can knowingly vote for stupid shit like pro tax, pro crime, pro big government policy because casting the vote scratches “other” itches and you’ll likely be OK regardless. 

as the most liberal of my friends from back home/family and most conservative of my friends in my limousine liberal adopted home, I understand what you are referring to. 

 

 

[Sweet]

15 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Luxury voting. Kinda similar to what you describe. Where you’re well off enough that you can knowingly vote for stupid shit like pro tax, pro crime, pro big government policy because casting the vote scratches “other” itches and you’ll likely be OK regardless. 

100% this.  Hate this bs.

[Sweet]

“China, Japan, South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs, Chinese state media says”
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-japan-south-korea-will-jointly-respond-us-tariffs-chinese-state-media-says-2025-03-31/

Does Trump and his team understand the damage they are doing to their hard fought relationships the US has built over the years?

 

I’m a dumb dumb but if I can see it how can others within that team not.  Heck even the Republicans party more generally.  

[Spooky]

54 minutes ago, Sweet said:

“China, Japan, South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs, Chinese state media says”
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-japan-south-korea-will-jointly-respond-us-tariffs-chinese-state-media-says-2025-03-31/

Does Trump and his team understand the damage they are doing to their hard fought relationships the US has built over the years?

 

I’m a dumb dumb but if I can see it how can others within that team not.  Heck even the Republicans party more generally.  

 

Ya. Globalization and trade will continue, but the flows will be different. Seems more and more that the tariffs are an end in themselves rather than a means to an end or a negotiating tactic.

[dealraker]

3 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Well, if fun includes any of the following, its already begun:

Not telling me what to say, do or think.

Not telling me who to hire outside of long-established definitions of "discrimination".

Not promoting, funding and turning a blind eye to endless wars.

Removing dangerous illegals and deterring future illegals from entering this country.

Promoting merit-based anything rather than quotas.

Strengthening a military whose numbers were diminishing.

Making public statements you may not like but at least you can understand.

Spending my tax dollars more wisely and eliminating a lot of spending I don't support.

Recognizing people for who they are, not what they want to be in some misguided, alternate universe. 

Endorsing equal justice for everyone, including those with whom you disagree and have differences.

Promoting family values that got us here.

 

 

OK, you confused me.  Enough of this subject, I'm off this thread for a while.

 

I'll revisit later as things progress.  

[flesh]

An increase in Better jobs for men will increase the birthrate. Women are hypergamous. The existing citizenry are more productive as a group than a new batch of illegals. Long term, birth rate needs to go up economically. Demographics are important.  

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, flesh said:

An increase in Better jobs for men will increase the birthrate. Women are hypergamous. The existing citizenry are more productive as a group than a new batch of illegals. Long term, birth rate needs to go up economically. Demographics are important.  

 

The Woke regime will fight that tooth & nail. There is no room for the family unit in the socialist society where you worship the institutions - and rat out your family members. Schools won't ever respect parents wishes in regards to pronouns, gender, sex changes, drag queen shows, etc.

 

The family is dead in new progressive socialism.

[John Hjorth]

6 hours ago, Spooky said:

Denmark looking pretty solid!

 

Exactly, @Spooky,

 

And personally I've been thinking about why, not just lately, but actually for quite some time, why it is is so.

 

Naturally, it's about having good businesses having their home here, and to nurse them, so they stay here, in stead them leaving for greener pastures.

 

But on the political side it's also about getting the necessary things done, switfly, when needed, in stead of things [real well meant and honest, sincere, noble  initiatives] getting burried in political spin and *BS*.

 

Still, nothing is near perfect here, but not much is really bad. -Ain't that something?

 

We have such a government by now here in Denmark, where idealogic issues are overshadowed by practical approach to issues and actual execution to get issues solved and to get things done.

 

And then, when I study the United States of America, among other things, based on posts and sources posted here on CofB&F, I get a feeling of a society, divided in two, with no real mutual intentions to get along with each other.

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Exactly, @Spooky,

 

And personally I've been thinking about why, not just lately, but actually for quite some time, why it is is so.

 

Naturally, it's about having good businesses having their home here, and to nurse them, so they stay here, in stead them leaving for greener pastures.

 

But on the political side it's also about getting the necessary things done, switfly, when needed, in stead of things [real well meant and honest, sincere, noble  initiatives] getting burried in political spin and *BS*.

 

Still, nothing is near perfect here, but not much is really bad. -Ain't that something?

 

We have such a government by now here in Denmark, where idealogic issues are overshadowed by practical approach to issues and actual execution to get issues solved and to get things done.

 

And then, when I study the United States of America, among other things, based on posts and sources posted here on CofB&F, I get a feeling of a society, divided in two, with no real mutual intentions to get along with each other.

 

Sounds like I need to visit Denmark, I've never been.

[LC]

Sure - let's just ignore American society's massive wealth inequality and gutting of public educational and medical services.

 

Ignore the 1% who are gutting this country for profit - it's all the pronouns fault!

[beerbaron]

I think we are getting a bit off subject here. I don't think Mr. Pettis mentions wokeness or birth rate and that is a completely different non-macro problem. If you gents don't mind I'm all in for a 1980s civil debate not a 2025 blue VS red one

 

Some aspects that I find weak about it's theory is about German laws that made export cheaper. Yes but, Canada, US and Mexico are trade deficit economies and have very weak labor laws VS Germany.

 

A piece that I'm trying to grasp is how the trade deficit is linked to global US debt. Like it is tighly geared or loosely geared?

 

Let's say it's in the middle in the Geering (IE 1$ of trade deficit brings 50 cents of global US debt). Cutting off trade deficit overnight would explode interest rates (less capital inflows) and start a very nasty deleveraging process. I can't imagine what happens if the US whole debt to GDP ratio has to be shrunk down to 50% of what it is today. We are talking great depression numbers. What are you guy's toughts?

 

Thanks

BeerBaron

[flesh]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Exactly, @Spooky,

 

And personally I've been thinking about why, not just lately, but actually for quite some time, why it is is so.

 

Naturally, it's about having good businesses having their home here, and to nurse them, so they stay here, in stead them leaving for greener pastures.

 

But on the political side it's also about getting the necessary things done, switfly, when needed, in stead of things [real well meant and honest, sincere, noble  initiatives] getting burried in political spin and *BS*.

 

Still, nothing is near perfect here, but not much is really bad. -Ain't that something?

 

We have such a government by now here in Denmark, where idealogic issues are overshadowed by practical approach to issues and actual execution to get issues solved and to get things done.

 

And then, when I study the United States of America, among other things, based on posts and sources posted here on CofB&F, I get a feeling of a society, divided in two, with no real mutual intentions to get along with each other.

Your society is 91% homogenous. That group is generally productive and it’s similar for most of Scandinavia. They are similar culturally as well and less likely to game the welfare system and therefore it’s been relatively stable for now. It’s much easier to maintain a smaller culture, I’d give Utah as an example in USA. As close as you’ll get to the homogeneity levels of Scandinavia. However with your birth rate and it’s trend things are going to change.  Meanwhile Mormons are still ensuring my real estate will do quite well. 
 

Anecdotally all of my Swedish ancestors (axelson) were quite successful wherever they went based on genealogy and listed professions. 

[Spekulatius]

I don’t know if it’s dumb or ignorant or just propaganda. probably all of the above :

 

it’s actually quite simple. SS has nothing to do with being a citizen. As a legal resident, you need to get one to  have a legal job. When I gets my greencard and started my job walked in the local SS admin building and got one right away on my first day. 

[Cigarbutt]

...

It's simple and not-so-simple.

Let's say Cigarbutt (American in this example) buys stuff (goods and services) from beerbaron, beerbaron may tend to accumulate some money (USD) for various (reserve) reasons but will also tend to exchange this money for something that earns a return. In a closed circuit (the world is a closed circuit in a way), beerbaron would buy an asset from me in exchange for this money. beerbaron would negotiate for a debt or equity contract.

For the most part, foreign participants maintain a positive trade balance with the US and maintain a balancing positive balance in the capital account with the US and most of this money going through the capital account is used to buy Treasury debt.

Look at the following recent release (Current account = trade account with some stuff):

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-transactions-4th-quarter-and-year-2024

But it's not so simple because people tend to see a cause and effect from trade to capital but it's also possible to consider the cause and effect from capital to trade (foreign saving glut). Maybe the cause and effect goes both ways and is complicated by 'unfair' practices...

-----

FWIW, i've enjoyed, over the years, reading Mr. Pettis' work on China. It's been helpful to understand (concepts, debt-driven growth, unsustainability etc) but his work does not seem to help with precise foresight.

Concerning the recent publications about global trade, it seems that Mr. Pettis' case for tariffs is weak. He describes a conceptual production subsidy. But that's not really what present tariffs are or will be. The present recipe is equivalent to a subsidy to domestic production competing with importers. The result will likely include higher prices, lower exports, lower demand and lower overall global trade. This would entail a decreased global demand for US public debt but this environment may actually increase (globally and domestically) the appetite for US public debt.

-----

The effects of Smoot-Hawley tariffs have largely been forgotten:

It's been fairly well established that the progressive tarif implementation did not cause the Great De****ion. It just accentuated the economic difficulties that would have likely happened anyways.

-----

What's special about today's environment is that tariffs are implemented in a growing (still) economy with full employment..

[Spekulatius]

The trade deficit and the fiscal deficit are too different things but there is a correlation. A fiscal deficit means more private sector spending (since a deficit brings money in the private sector) which also tends to lead to more imports.

 

I think as a group, legal immigrants are more productive than the existing citizens. The best way to improve economic outcomes is to increase legal immigration, imo.

Birth rates are hard to move upwards. On the hypergamous issue of woman, I think some perceptions will need to change because I can see that within 10 years, the younger cohort women will earn more than comparable men of same age , due to better education. I think better wages will most likely mean better wages for both men and women so that most likely wont solve the problem.

[Spekulatius]

14 hours ago, Spooky said:

Ya. Globalization and trade will continue, but the flows will be different. Seems more and more that the tariffs are an end in themselves rather than a means to an end or a negotiating tactic.

Yes, the tariffs are coming no matter what. It seems to make no sense to even make a deal with Trump because the outcome is the same. I think the trade alliances will form around and without the US. Nothing nefarious about it if the US exits NAFTA, the NAFTA remains and evolves, makes an alliance with the EU, maybe South America.

 

The US become a trade Island with expensive goods compared to world market prices. US soft power around the globe will wane.

Edited April 1, 2025 by Spekulatius

[DooDiligence]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes, the tariffs are coming no matter what. It seems to make no sense to even make a deal with Trump because the outcome is the same. I think the trace alliances will form around and without the US. Nothing nefarious about it if the US exits NAFTA, the NAFTA remains and evolves, makes an alliance with the EU, maybe South America.

 

The US become a trade Island with expensive goods compared to world market prices. US soft power around the globe will wane.

 

The new rallying cry will be

Make America Go Away

and its top promoters are Donnie and Leon

stone walls with crushed glass on top coming soon to neighborhoods near you

 

.

Edited April 1, 2025 by DooDiligence

[Castanza]

On 3/20/2025 at 8:12 AM, SharperDingaan said:

Trump is a melting ice cube, and his only tool is chaos.

This tool can lead to the use of another. Emergency Powers….Presidential power has been growing since Clinton. Executive Orders have grown (Clinton, Bush2, Obama, Trump, Biden and now Trump). Congressional effectiveness has gone down the drain. The Judiciary has been increasingly politicized and packing is seen as an expectation of executive powers. Congress has provided Zero fix for Emergency Powers and made it worse in the 80’s.
 

The problem with Trump is he is a narcissist that has ZERO character or empathy. A big reason I did not vote for him in the last two elections. 
 

“Insurrection Clause” is all he needs. So he’s a melting ice cube until he’s not….Is Trump that guy? 
 

Not sure, but he’s the most likely candidate we’ve seen. America needs to move away from the appeal to Caesar path asap. Both parties are to blame here. 

 

edit: Obviously worst case scenario. But long-term....the US is stacking it's deck to make this move much more likely. I'm not willing to sound the fire alarms yet on that side of the coin...

 

Current policy and tariffs make little sense to anyone....at least we can all mostly be bi-partisan on that. 

Edited April 1, 2025 by Castanza