Political Posts

[backtothebeach]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Why would the Europeans lift sanctions? The sanction impair Russians economy which finances Russians war efforts. Lifting them makes only sense if the war is over with a satisfactory outcome for  Europe. Giving the Russian more money is the last thing that makes sense at this point.

“Research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) - an independent organisation - suggests the European Union’s 27 member states purchased more than €205 billion in Russian fossil fuels, including oil, coal and gas, since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.”

 

“EU members Belgium, France and Spain continue to be major entry points for Russian LNG.”

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/05/has-europe-spent-more-on-russian-oil-and-gas-than-aid-to-ukraine-as-trump-claims

Edited March 28, 2025 by backtothebeach

[changegonnacome]

Putin Tests How Far Trump Will Go Against Europe on Sanctions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-28/putin-tests-how-far-trump-will-go-against-europe-on-sanctions

 

Very interesting to see how Trump feels when his Nobel peace prize is being blocked by the same Europe he derides - in fact perhaps Europe’s best tariff negotiating position now (jokingly) is that it simply won’t play ball with the Trump/Putin peace bromance by dropping sanctions….till the US’s ‘sanctions’ on Europe i.e. tariffs are lifted in a comprehensive deal

 

What a strange new adversarial tit-for-tat world Captain Chaos has opened up. The post-WWII era of multilateralism, cooperation across allies will be looked back on fondly….the bull case IMO is that Captain Chaos messes things up so profoundly in the next 18 months that the electorate in the mid-terms and then the next Presidential race put a centrist, dare I say it, globalist back in power who just unwinds this stuff with the stroke of pen ( cause remember all this stuff all sits under executive orders).
 

In some respects I’m routing for Trump to go buck wild and create an economic mess….getting this US isolationist, mercantilist mind virus out of the system quickly might be the best outcome longer term.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

13 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

They didn't want to bring big balls around? 

 

Probably doing damage control at Tesla to defend the pay package that is more than the cumulative profits across Tesla's entire history. 

 

Shareholders cant' be happy...

[cubsfan]

54 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Putin Tests How Far Trump Will Go Against Europe on Sanctions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-28/putin-tests-how-far-trump-will-go-against-europe-on-sanctions

 

Very interesting to see how Trump feels when his Nobel peace prize is being blocked by the same Europe he derides - in fact perhaps Europe’s best tariff negotiating position now (jokingly) is that it simply won’t play ball with the Trump/Putin peace bromance by dropping sanctions….till the US’s ‘sanctions’ on Europe i.e. tariffs are lifted in a comprehensive deal

 

What a strange new adversarial tit-for-tat world Captain Chaos has opened up. The post-WWII era of multilateralism, cooperation across allies will be looked back on fondly….the bull case IMO is that Captain Chaos messes things up so profoundly in the next 18 months that the electorate in the mid-terms and then the next Presidential race put a centrist, dare I say it, globalist back in power who just unwinds this stuff with the stroke of pen ( cause remember all this stuff all sits under executive orders).
 

In some respects I’m routing for Trump to go buck wild and create an economic mess….getting this US isolationist, mercantilist mind virus out of the system quickly might be the best outcome longer term.

 

Keep your fingers crossed. Maybe he'll get impeached?  Maybe he'll get shot?

 

Shit!    Been there, done that!

[SharperDingaan]

39 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Probably doing damage control at Tesla to defend the pay package that is more than the cumulative profits across Tesla's entire history. 

 

Shareholders cant' be happy...

 

Probably also figuring out how to fire him for cause, and claw back some of the pay package; as he now hasn't worked for them for 3 months, and has also single-handedly destroyed much of the brand .... near impossible to sell a swasticar right now, and tesla 'apology' bumper stickers are selling like hotcakes.

 

https://www.redbubble.com/i/sticker/Tesla-sticker-for-owners-that-want-to-express-their-dislike-for-Elon-Musk-White-and-black-version-by-CasbenShop/168731769.EJUG5?country_code=CA&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwkZm_BhDrARIsAAEbX1FvxyepIMYCTfilZ1I8w53yZWZE-37hN3t0rk8iY2iqA4nzZ1DI96AaAtcYEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

 

Make a lot of shareholders very happy ...

 

SD

 

[Mephistopheles]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

In some respects I’m routing for Trump to go buck wild and create an economic mess….getting this US isolationist, mercantilist mind virus out of the system quickly might be the best outcome longer term.

 

Yes probably. What I don't get is, why are Congressional Republicans willing to support him on every step in this tariff lunacy? What does this mean for the '26 midterms? Surely if we get into a recession the House will flip and depending on how bad it is perhaps the GOP loses the Senate too. Then it is game over for the fascist... 

Edited March 28, 2025 by Mephistopheles

[changegonnacome]

28 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Keep your fingers crossed. Maybe he'll get impeached?  Maybe he'll get shot?

 

Shit!    Been there, done that!

 

No way @cubsfan you know my posts.....I was critical of the last President too..I'm not some blind partisan hack......wouldn't wish ill on him.....he's the President.....in fact I'm a big supporter of his DOGE initiative and deregulation agenda...(while recognizing reality which is in $2T deficit DOGE is not going to change the math enough)...but its good they are being tackled....so I'll give him his due on that stuff.....much needed and he has the balls to tackle it.

 

My issue with Trump - is that his economic plan (re-industrialization via tariff's) is poorly thought out and doomed IMO to failure and 2nd/3rd order effects are yet to be seen. I'd go as far to say they are crazy. Let's see - I stand ready to be wrong.

 

As it pertains to foreign policy well you know my thoughts. I hated the idealistic liberal foreign policy that helped get Ukraine wrecked......and I despised the hubristic doubling down Biden did post-March 2022......I applaud Trump for trying to end the pointless conflict....but I've issues with the skills of a negotiator who concedes every point to his opponent before even getting to the table. It is not in America's long term national security interest to roll over so quickly to get its belly tickled. JD Vance spoke about deterrence in Signal-gate......capitulating in a proxy war to an enemy so easily is not a good deterrence 'look'. I want Trump to end the war in Ukraine.....but the correct posture was to escalate to de-escalate....to ensure the best deal is being got at the table. I saw none of that which was poor policy. 

 

Finally - as I've articulated before the benign alliance regime the US had up until recently in NATO and Asia.....cost a few lousy hundred billion dollars a year....but its dominance in trade, reserve currency status and global affairs was re-paid ten fold for that investment.......not to the mention the hard reality.....that every nation in the international system should seek to maximize its relaitive power....the era of the American empire (the hidden empire - https://www.amazon.com/How-Hide-Empire-History-Greater/dp/0374172145) best maximized this.

 

So what is Trump doing......big picture.....cause he's unwilling to tackle social security/medicare.....he putting on tariff's and dismantling the American Empire.....for what? To save a few bucks....so they can keep sending the same cheques to retirees down in the Villages in Florida so the Margarteville parties can continue uninterrupted.

 

Its the final boomer betrayal - to pretend like we're broke (when we aren't).....and to dismantle the post-WWII economic & alliance system (the American Empire) that gave those same boomers like Trump a lifetime of economic opportunity and peace. 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2025 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

Awesome response !!!

 

By any chance have you watched the extended interview with Howard Lutnick that @flesh posted?  I think the economic plan is underestimated. Reshoring jobs, etc. 

 

With Ukraine - we know very little about the outcome. Putin will be harsh to deal with, no doubt.

But Putin does hold the cards. Ukraine will have to make great sacrifices to end this war.

And no one is coming to their aid to fight. It's a very tough situation for Ukraine.

 

American's national security focus needs to be on Mexico, Panama Canal (big win), Middle East (Red Sea access), and of course China. Europe can handle (and should Ukraine).

So we can argue about best tactics to end Ukraine War, I'll be happy to be wrong if Europe decides to take Russia down, in order to put Ukraine in a better negotiating position - I just don't see it.

Your point is well taken.

[changegonnacome]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

By any chance have you watched the extended interview with Howard Lutnick that @flesh posted?  I think the economic plan is underestimated. Reshoring jobs, etc. 

 

Yep I watched it - listen these guys hearts (Trump/Lutnick/Bessent) are in the right place.....Lutnick is a patriot.....what he did post-9/11 for Cantor and the families left behind is beyond admirable. He's a hero for what he did.

 

But honestly believe this economic nationalism/isolationism is not the way to go.......as I've said before...even if you believe that it makes sense (big picture - I dont....nobody IMO benefits more from globalization and free trade more than the United States).......but the political timeline (2-4yrs) does not align with the economic timeline......my base case is its going to be a tonne of chaos for the next 2-4yrs.....higher inflation, higher unemployment, lower trend GDP growth...which means the deficit actually gets worse......and the next guy or gal voted in to the WH will be put there to undo it all and go back to something like the 2024 world.

 

I get what they are going for re: Joe Sixpack- I liked Bessents line about "let them eat flat screen TV's" as not being an economic agenda......but really.....its kind of lazy and short-sighted to try to pull back low value industries......stemming the tide of illegal migrants to drive down wage bargaining alone is going to help alot......but you really dont want America's workforce sucked into low value added manufacturing when they are a scarce resource....single digit operating margin crap like autos?......christ almighty you want Joe Sixpack out there building houses that we need....that's a solid 20% margin business when done right. Get Joe Sixpack into genuine federal subsidized vocational programs......plumbers, electricians, carpenters......give em tax breaks......thats how you revitalize Akron, Ohio....you dont make 'USA Corp' that is a high margin, high RoE business better by diversifying it into low margin, low RoE panel bashing. There's a better way.

[cubsfan]

Well - you have some great ideas there. Like get the trades going - great jobs. I say defund the Universities that crank out worthless degrees..

 

The realignment is going to be tough and challenging. Hope they have the runway.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Probably also figuring out how to fire him for cause, and claw back some of the pay package; as he now hasn't worked for them for 3 months, and has also single-handedly destroyed much of the brand .... near impossible to sell a swasticar right now, and tesla 'apology' bumper stickers are selling like hotcakes.

 

https://www.redbubble.com/i/sticker/Tesla-sticker-for-owners-that-want-to-express-their-dislike-for-Elon-Musk-White-and-black-version-by-CasbenShop/168731769.EJUG5?country_code=CA&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwkZm_BhDrARIsAAEbX1FvxyepIMYCTfilZ1I8w53yZWZE-37hN3t0rk8iY2iqA4nzZ1DI96AaAtcYEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

 

Make a lot of shareholders very happy ...

 

SD

 

80% of Teslas value related to Elon Musk and the project he promised ( self autonomy, Optimismus robots). This is what the bulls think.

Without Musk, Tesla is just a car company that would trade for 10-15x earnings, maybe less. His job is safe.

[Spekulatius]

Maybe the Trump administration will give us adjusted inflation, GDP growth and unemployment numbers, as if Trump wasn't elected.

[Gregmal]

Plus I mean all the noise and sore puss gotchas but Tesla stock is…basically flat from when the election happened and up 50% over the past year. Contrary to naysayers, we don’t only get to cherry pick success and failures based just on the occasional stock market drawdowns that last I checked…are just part of the game.

[beerbaron]

I recently listened a video from Michael Pettis that was recorded 11 months ago that discusses trade imbalances and tarifs. The author makes a cases that sustained trade deficits brings an ever rising debt level at the deficit country over time if the economy is mature because the deficit country cannot invest massively in infrastructure. This seems to align a bit with Trump's view that a trade imbalance is bad for the US in the long term. The depth of it's analysis is, of course, way deeper that Trumps P&L view but. might be the basis for the policies coming soon.

 

Here are the key takeaways that I get from the video:

-Trade imbalances could be solved from Tarifs, Capital Controls, Or international concerted efforts for penalize consistant current account surplus countries.

-Solving the issues with tarifs should be done over 5-10 years.

-The trade deficit has to translate into an increase of the debt levels

 

Mr. Petti's view seems quite contrary to most economist in regards to comparative advantage. Stating countries like China and Germany supppress their wages in order to fuel their industrial base. I would agree with China, but the argument seem weak with Germany.

 

I would like to hear your views about this in terms of flaws in it's analysis but also, if 30Y of trade deficit has created huge amounts of debts what does it mean in term of deleverage if we reverse course in 4 years. 

 

Toughht

BeerBaron

 

 

 

 

[Sweet]

Yeh but Tesla is not a company valued as a car company, it’s a Musk brand with a fat multiple divorced from its underlying economics.  Many of the naysayers have been right about the fundamentals but wrong about the stock price - which is a feature primarily of the cult of Musk.  Not exactly something you can value, and something that can be destroyed.

[nsx5200]

48 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Maybe the Trump administration will give us adjusted inflation, GDP growth and unemployment numbers, as if Trump wasn't elected.

The way it's trending, I'd be happy if the government can continue to provide trustworthy economic data.  On the flip side, we seem to be getting more insight into really accurate non-classified battle plans that we didn't get with the previous administrations.  Trade-offs.

[Gregmal]

Not to mention also coming off a 4 year span where fake jobs numbers and crime statistics were met with raucous…silence from todays concerned citizens. 

[Sweet]

 

 

Will be interesting to see if this is true.  I have reasons to doubt it, the budget for the national parks is less than 5 billion, I suspect even the most incompetent administrators would flag a 1 billion survey.

 

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Like get the trades going

 

The way Trump goes on you'd swear there was 15% unemployment. Endless activities need doing.....for example.....endless amount of roles coming up in eldercare.....high margin, capital light....its really nuts to go back to panel beating.....when some overseas dummy can do it for you and all the better they take paper printed benjamins in our reserve currency. Sure i get national security concerns - keep a prudent amount of steel making etc.

 

But back to the Ukraine-Russia thing......I think a useful analogy for the American Empire (1945 - 2023 RIP)....was that it was brutal but occasionally kind mob boss that ran the world....it ran a kind of benign protection racket.....and it was handsomely rewarded for it in treasure and control.....and that is being dismantled by Trump.....what mob family gives up its territory as Trump is doing?......doesn't Trump realize how wealthy, safe and powerful its made the USA telling the European's, Asian's what to do because they outsourced their strategic autonomy to us?

 

This approach is a mistake.......acting broke and burning the furniture to stay warm.....when you've got a treasure chest in the basement (social security/medicare) is the height of lunacy. The boomers are going to go down as the sociopath generation - they got fabulously wealthy, had life of pretty much only upward sloping net worth and when push came to shove and the country needed to save a few bucks they kept voting themselves cheques so that in their retirement they had the cash flow to keep feeding the slot machines in Vegas or keep the tequilas flowing at Margaritaville into their 80’s (even though they have assets (their homes/stocks) that have appreciated to an ungodly level during their lifetime.

 

I'm being hyperbolic of course - but you get my point - Trump is rolling the dice on a high risk economic strategy & shrinking the US power and influence overseas to fix the finances at home…..when they aren’t broke .......cause he and his spineless pals in congress on all sides of the isle can't muster the courage to do something truly patriotic - tell their own generation to pull the chair away from the US banquet table and leave some cheese and honey for their kids and their grandkids. Stan Druckenmiller had it precisely right nearly a decade ago.......what your looking at is a sort of generational theft from the young to the old and Trump/Biden as old men enabled that theft to continue.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2025 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

9 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Will be interesting to see if this is true.  I have reasons to doubt it, the budget for the national parks is less than 5 billion, I suspect even the most incompetent administrators would flag a 1 billion survey.

 

I think that is right. We're all skeptical. And I'd love to see where it went, what were the actual deliverables, etc.

 

 

[LC]

32 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Will be interesting to see if this is true.  I have reasons to doubt it, the budget for the national parks is less than 5 billion, I suspect even the most incompetent administrators would flag a 1 billion survey.

 

Saw this headline yesterday and tried to research anything about it. Found nothing at all.

My guess, given Elon is untrustworthy - is that his claim is a very generous stretching of the truth. If not outright nonsense. Just plausible enough to deflect under oath.

"Well it's actually a 10M/year expense but  if we assume they renew it for 100 years..."

That kind of crap.

 

So then I went down the rabbit hole a bit and looked at the DOGE website where they "show the receipts" and its pretty much just them cancelling  various government contracts  - nothing showing waste/fraud.

https://doge.gov/savings

 

A ton of USAID being cancelled, a ton of "grants" to the 50 states for things like health services. Don't get sick in Texas, people!

 

Here is their biggest 'saving', of 1.9B for this:

https://www.fpds.gov/ezsearch/jsp/viewLinkController.jsp?agencyID=2050&PIID=2032H524A00020&modNumber=P00001&idvAgencyID=&idvPIID=47QRAA18D00C6&contractType=IDV

 

Which looks like a contract extending thru 2031 to provide services to the IRS. All the info says is:

ENTERPRISE PROGRAM, PROJECT, INTEGRATION SERVICES (EPPIS)

My guess is some IT integration service contract, probably to maintain the systems which the IRS uses to automate tax processing and auditing.

No idea what the "waste" here is. Maybe Elon and Trump don't like the CEO/senior mgmt?

https://www.centennialtechnologies.com/about-who-we-are/

 

Edited March 28, 2025 by LC

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

80% of Teslas value related to Elon Musk and the project he promised ( self autonomy, Optimismus robots). This is what the bulls think.

Without Musk, Tesla is just a car company that would trade for 10-15x earnings, maybe less. His job is safe.

 

With him, Tesla may not have earnings again? We'll see. Maybe they gotta head back to pre-revenue days to be cool

 

 

 

26 minutes ago, LC said:

Which looks like a contract extending thru 2031 to provide services to the IRS. All the info says is:

ENTERPRISE PROGRAM, PROJECT, INTEGRATION SERVICES (EPPIS)

My guess is some IT integration service contract, probably to maintain the systems which the IRS uses to automate tax processing and auditing.

No idea what the "waste" here is. Maybe Elon and Trump don't like the CEO/senior mgmt?

https://www.centennialtechnologies.com/about-who-we-are/

 

 

Everyone knows there is waste in the government. But to allege that a significant portion of government expenditures are outright fraud? It's a very big leap AND would require Republicans to believe that THEY were also part of the fraud seeing as each admin simply builds on the spending of the last....

 

but they'll never admit that, they'll never find the fraud, but it won't stop them from lying that they did...

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

80% of Teslas value related to Elon Musk and the project he promised ( self autonomy, Optimismus robots). This is what the bulls think.

Without Musk, Tesla is just a car company that would trade for 10-15x earnings, maybe less. His job is safe.

 

Not so sure ...

Most all the institutional shareholders would put a long straddle on Musk being fired. If the stock drops as a result of no more Elon ... they do very well. If the stock pops because the liability is gone ... they also do well.

 

But nothing happens unless Elon is out; and there's a high payoff for his eviction. Money whispers .... Elon just yaps

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/tech/musk-merges-his-ai-company-with-x-claiming-combined-valuation-of-113-billion-4a8f2263

 

Musk Merges His AI Company With X, Claiming Combined Valuation of $113 Billion

Elon Musk’s artificial-intelligence startup xAI has acquired X, the social-media platform he also owns, in an all-stock transaction, he said. 

[lnofeisone]

47 minutes ago, Hektor said:

https://www.wsj.com/tech/musk-merges-his-ai-company-with-x-claiming-combined-valuation-of-113-billion-4a8f2263

 

Musk Merges His AI Company With X, Claiming Combined Valuation of $113 Billion

Elon Musk’s artificial-intelligence startup xAI has acquired X, the social-media platform he also owns, in an all-stock transaction, he said. 

Bad headline. xAi is acquiring X. xAi investors are now hosed by elon's X purchase. I'm guessing elon is experiencing some financial stresses and we are probably months away from seeing him step away from govt or tesla. Let's see what he chooses (thisbis rhetorical).