Political Posts

[Castanza]

10 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Can the answer be lot more straightforward? Ukraine is struggling to reclaim its territory and just needs nastier weapons to make progress. Russia is well dug in and more importantly, had adapted to be more effective. Mines, helicopters, lancets - are all things that Russia has perfected and it's now causing Ukarine major headaches. Just my 2 cents. 

Nothing wrong with that view if you’re primarily interested in battlefield analysis. 

[lnofeisone]

20 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Certainly. That said we are just having conversations, shooting different scenarios, challenging different points of views, going down the rabbit hole for the hell of it etc. 

 

if you want to be absolutely factual, than 90% of what has been said in this thread is mostly speculation and “what ifs” and throwing in stuff from recent and past history. 
 

I dare say, this thread itself is a piece of history in some ways, capturing the different points of view, different biases, etc as events unfolded over now 450+ or so days. 

100% agree. We are all sharing opinions and opinions changed as the war evolved (e.g., west involvement, weapons upgrades, the weather). 

 

@Castanza - I think the battlefield will decide the outcome of this situation. It's clear Ukraine is committed but so is Putin. Something's gotta give. 

[Ulti]

excellent podcast 

[John Hjorth]

Just some educational info here [without the intent to appear condecending towards fellow board members posting in this topic, or for that matter any CoBF member] :

 

North Atlantic Treaty Organization - Press Release [July 7^th 2023] : Defence Expenditures of NATO Countries (2014-2023).

Full document in PDF with data tables and charts.

 

Whose war is it : The war belongs Russia and Ukraine.

Whose problem is the war? : To me, it's primairily a problem held and owned by Europe, because the war is going on in Europe and destabilizes Europe in a material way. ['Europe' here includes both  Russia and Ukraine.]

In the end it's an issue for every state in the western world, where societal values are based on democracy and freedom.

 

I have no problem with understanding the stances of @cubsfan and @Castanza about USAs participation in the financing of the war. As a Dane, I'm actually embarrased by the Danish part of the data in the above mentioned material.

Edited July 10, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Parsad]

On 7/7/2023 at 1:17 PM, Spekulatius said:

Generally, you don't use a biological weapon in your own country. It is always advisable to do away with complicated conspiracy theories when mere incompetence suffices to explain the facts at hand reasonably well.

 

+1!  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg [July 10^th 2023] : Erdogan Links Sweden’s NATO Entry to Turkey’s EU Bid.

 

The man is an intellectual pygmy. The legal framework for EU has nothing to do with the legal framework for NATO.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, Ulti said:

excellent podcast 

Agreed - just managed to listen to it. It's interesting to look at the differences and similarities of japan 1990 vs China 2023. i did not know that Japan had better demographics in 1990 than China does now. The population in japan started to declined in 2009 and China has to deal with this issue right now. Construction sector in China is 36% of GDP vs ~20% in Japan at the peak in the late 1980's. Seems like the leaders in China are keenly aware of the problem unlike Japan in 1990.

Anyways, worth listening too.

[Ulti]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Agreed - just managed to listen to it. It's interesting to look at the differences and similarities of japan 1990 vs China 2023. i did not know that Japan had better demographics in 1990 than China does now. The population in japan started to declined in 2009 and China has to deal with this issue right now. Construction sector in China is 36% of GDP vs ~20% in Japan at the peak in the late 1980's. Seems like the leaders in China are keenly aware of the problem unlike Japan in 1990.

Anyways, worth listening too.

I took away a few things ( maybe misinterpreted)

deglobalization combined with regional debt and a move to a service economy is going to kick Chinas ass for several years.

 

best thing the federal government of China can do is to continue their infrastructure buildout… … Owning Rio

their opinion:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-tinto-says-china-economy-040203828.html

[Sweet]

economy must not be doing so well

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

economy must not be doing so well

The 10 year Chinese government bond trades at ~2.6% yield. US 10 year bond yield trades at 4%.

[cubsfan]

10 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Just some educational info here [without the intent to appear condecending towards fellow board members posting in this topic, or for that matter any CoBF member] :

 

North Atlantic Treaty Organization - Press Release [July 7^th 2023] : Defence Expenditures of NATO Countries (2014-2023).

Full document in PDF with data tables and charts.

 

Whose war is it : The war belongs Russia and Ukraine.

Whose problem is the war? : To me, it's primairily a problem held and owned by Europe, because the war is going on in Europe and destabilizes Europe in a material way. ['Europe' here includes both  Russia and Ukraine.]

In the end it's an issue for every state in the western world, where societal values are based on democracy and freedom.

 

I have no problem with understanding the stances of @cubsfan and @Castanza about USAs participation in the financing of the war. As a Dane, I'm actually embarrased by the Danish part of the data in the above mentioned material.

Yes, the war is primarily a serious problem for Europe- which is exactly why it’s a large problem for the USA. Unless you want every country in the world nuking up - you’re going to have to have a serious Western world alliance (Europe & USA).

 The pacifist in both spheres need to go. Only then is Putin and President Xi going to understand this alliance can NEVER be defeated- and these wars of aggression will eventually be met with defeat.

 

Its not at all about spreading democracy and that nonsense. It’s about living alongside each other and benefiting from free trade - as the post WWII period has brought us.

 

Extremely weak world leaders have brought us to this moment.

[John Hjorth]

KAL cartoon [July 6^th 2023] in The Economist. [Perhaps needless to say, but I like it [  ], especially on a day where there will be a solution for a roadmap for  Swedens NATO membership, and thereby for the NATO members in Northern Europe in the Baltics and Nordics.]

 

[Spekulatius]

WSJ story on EV’s and  foreign car makers (which have been losing market share rapidly)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rise-of-chinas-ev-makers-puts-end-to-wests-local-dominance-775d0811?mod=business_major_pos7

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

WSJ story on EV’s and  foreign car makers (which have been losing market share rapidly)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rise-of-chinas-ev-makers-puts-end-to-wests-local-dominance-775d0811?mod=business_major_pos7

The Illusion of "free market capitalism" is bursting. Every system, both US/West and China have had state capitalism all along, industries like TSMC or Airplane manufacturing only exist due to state backing. China of course with a tighter grip, US due to monopoly position of course in a looser grip, preaching IP protection and the state doing the minimum. Well, China can do it too and successfuly, now "adhering to the free market" becomes important for the industries to be disrupted. Exciting times.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

US capital definitely behind the slandering of China, pushing the media both domestic but also in europe to publish more and more "china danger" articles. 

 

https://youtu.be/DjjND_ky6t4

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, Luca said:

US capital definitely behind the slandering of China, pushing the media both domestic but also in europe to publish more and more "china danger" articles. 

 

https://youtu.be/DjjND_ky6t4

That has got to be the dumbest political analysis I’ve ever heard. What an old fool Chomsky is…

 

He asks the question “Why would China be a threat?” - then runs his mouth about a litany of bullshit - totally avoiding ANY mention of a Taiwan invasion or the COVID coverup/disaster.

 

Yet , then he even goes onto accuse Israel of actively poisoning 1M Palestinian children.

 

The guy is a total loon that refuses to even talk about the truth.

[rogermunibond]

On 7/7/2023 at 11:16 AM, John Hjorth said:

 

It would be nice to getting back to sharing facts.

 

Amen to that.  This thread is rapidly devolving not unlike the Disney thread.

[changegonnacome]

Ukraine's 'fast path' to NATO membership......feels a little like kabuki theatre.........its been 'given' to Ukraine by NATO members such that they can give it away in peace talks with Russia (potentially later this year)......not sure of the accuracy of reports but certainly the very early sketches of a peace deal Zelensky offered to Russia at the outset of the conflict had NATO neutrality as its tent pole feature.

[Xerxes]

Any talk of NATO membership (and with it the coveted Article 5 clause) for Ukraine, in current state (or even in a cease-fire scenario), can potentially be dilutive to Article 5 itself, and what it represents.  

 

Kremlin’ red line were shown to be phantom lines, NATO’ vaunted Article 5 should not (must not) turn out to be a phantom. A premature induction of a war-torn Ukraine could easily dilute that if turn out to be a phantom or a dud.   

There was a time and place to do that, like decades ago. Whether it was right to do it then or wrong, that is water under the bridge. Today however it is a mistake. 

[Spekulatius]

Ukraine's NATO membership is not going to happen until there is a piece deal. NATO has never admitted any nation with an open conflict. More likely than not, Ukraine's NATO membership is going to be part of  (or a side deal) of a peace deal with Russia.

 

FWIW, one of the reasons why Russia kept the stale war in the Donbas going from 2014 to 2022 is to prevent Ukraine joining the NATO, knowing too well the unwritten rule about open conflict.

[fareastwarriors]

China’s youth left behind as jobs crisis mounts

[changegonnacome]

 

Back to earlier questions of NATO encroachment as contributory factor to Russia's decision to invade Ukraine check out this recent interview with Biden from the weekend.

 

Where Biden 1m28secs into the interview recounts how his first meeting with Putin as president two years ago in Geneva (June 2021) had at its core a demand from Russia/Putin that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO....Biden it seems in that meeting reiterated the NATO trope which is that it has an 'open door' policy and would not rule out Ukraine joining. This from a President who's son was on the board of Ukranian gas company......and where the former president had called up the Ukranian president to have a political rival investigated.

 

As the old ad used to say - Heineken doesn't do US puppet regimes....but if they did 2020/2021 Ukraine sure would be a one of the best in the world.

 

Part of your intelligence apparatus job is to figure out your opponents red line issues........the foreign policy establishments failure in Washington to identify and classify Ukraine correctly as a red line issue for Russia.....to correctly identify a point of escalation that would have negative & sub-optimal consequences...is a great failing of the modern foreign relations class inside the beltway........ Putin is to blame too of course.....he invaded......but did it really advance the Ukrainian nations interest to encourage them and support them to pivot so completely to the West....there's literally 1000's of young men in trenches paying for that hubris and its turned out to be in nobody's interest not least the Ukrainians.

 

Sometimes in international relations......countries say what they mean and mean what they say......no 4D chess or gamesmanship involved.....Putin the expansionary imperialist remains one of the great myths in our culture.......it's really Putin the insecure existentialist which rings truest when one looks at the pattern of events and ignores the stories.....and meetings recounted by Biden such as this as recently as June 2021 + many other examples of Putin at every juncture demanding Ukrainian neutrality point to that.

 

As I've pointed out many times before as matter of quantitative fact rather than a qualitative theory (which can always be argued).... 185,000 invading troops is the not the army of a wannabe imperialist....for an imperialist this would simply be a division of ay invading army one of 20 or 30 perhaps for an invasion plan that covered a territory as vast as Ukranians.

 

 

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Back to earlier questions of NATO encroachment as contributory factor to Russia's decision to invade Ukraine check out this recent interview with Biden from the weekend.

 

Where Biden 1m28secs into the interview recounts how his first meeting with Putin as president two years ago in Geneva (June 2021) had at its core a demand from Russia/Putin that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO....Biden it seems in that meeting reiterated the NATO trope which is that it has an 'open door' policy and would not rule out Ukraine joining. This from a President who's son was on the board of Ukranian gas company......and where the former president had called up the Ukranian president to have a political rival investigated.

 

As the old ad used to say - Heineken doesn't do US puppet regimes....but if they did 2020/2021 Ukraine sure would be a one of the best in the world.

 

Part of your intelligence apparatus job is to figure out your opponents red line issues........the foreign policy establishments failure in Washington to identify and classify Ukraine correctly as a red line issue for Russia.....to correctly identify a point of escalation that would have negative & sub-optimal consequences...is a great failing of the modern foreign relations class inside the beltway........ Putin is to blame too of course.....he invaded......but did it really advance the Ukrainian nations interest to encourage them and support them to pivot so completely to the West....there's literally 1000's of young men in trenches paying for that hubris and its turned out to be in nobody's interest not least the Ukrainians.

 

Sometimes in international relations......countries say what they mean and mean what they say......no 4D chess or gamesmanship involved.....Putin the expansionary imperialist remains one of the great myths in our culture.......it's really Putin the insecure existentialist which rings truest when one looks at the pattern of events and ignores the stories.....and meetings recounted by Biden such as this as recently as June 2021 + many other examples of Putin at every juncture demanding Ukrainian neutrality point to that.

 

As I've pointed out many times before as matter of quantitative fact rather than a qualitative theory (which can always be argued).... 185,000 invading troops is the not the army of a wannabe imperialist....for an imperialist this would simply be a division of ay invading army one of 20 or 30 perhaps for an invasion plan that covered a territory as vast as Ukranians.

 

 

lets not forget that Putin earlier said he would have no issues with the Ukraine joining NATO and even considered having Russia join.

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

lets not forget that Putin earlier said he would have no issues with the Ukraine joining NATO and even considered having Russia join.

Not sure what that’s got to do with anything….what you reference is the early musing (brain farts) of Putin who was yet to be President of Russia….and was making come on eyes at the west…..that was about 21yrs ago! 

 

Since at least 2006 Putin has been crystal clear that Ukranian neutrality was a redline security issue for Russia akin to the Monroe Doctrine that the US has made crystal clear for about a 100yrs.

 

What’s come out in recent past via the Biden interview above, some interviews/talks Boris Johnson has done collecting speaking fees and Macron has alliuded too…..Putin since 2008 has at every bilateral engagement with Western leaders and with increasing frequency/urgency over time made Ukranian neutrality non-membership of NATO clear as a Russia redline…..I don’t agree with a policy of appeasement with Russia…..their maneuvers and strategic plays around the globe should be met with toe to toe by the West….in regard to Ukraine there was a serious failure of judgement on the part of the US and it’s allies….a failure to fully identify Ukraine’s strategic importance to Russia….it’s this failure which is the sin oft repeated by US diplomacy overseas….(1) the idea that nation building is even possible  (Ukraine/Afghanistan/Iraq) & (2) failing to assess your opponents red lines (Russia/Ukraine) and failure to identify your opponents resolve and staying power is ultimately much higher than yours (Afghanistan/Iraq/Ukraine/Vietnam+++++++).

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, ValueArb said:

lets not forget that Putin earlier said he would have no issues with the Ukraine joining NATO and even considered having Russia join.

so. People flip flop all the time. 

 

Rumsfeld and Bush were kissing Iraqi asses before flipping on them. 
 

Saddam was kissing Saudi asses before flipping on them. 
 

Hitler was in bed with Stalin before flipping. 
 

I wanted to be a doctor before I flipped into engineering 
 

Italians flipped in both world wars. God may have mercy on their souls !