Political Posts

[boilermaker75]

7 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

putin had said: “there is no reason for the world to exist if there is no Russia” At some point Zelensky has in turn to decide if “there is no reason for the world to exist if there is no Ukraine”. Very sad.  

 

I think if you asked Putin, "When will the world end," his response would be, "With my death." 

 

That is why this is scary. If it gets to the point there is no way out for him he will try to take everyone out.

Edited March 4, 2022 by boilermaker75

[Xerxes]

4 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

I think if you asked Putin, "When will the world end," his response would be, "With my death." 

 

That is why this is scary. If it gets to the point there is no way out for him he will try to take everyone out.

 In the other thread in the political section I alluded to Nixon’s Mad Man theory. For the threat of mutually assured destruction to be credible, one must appear credibly out of hinge and irrational. Or we can hope. 

 

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 In the other thread in the political section I alluded to Nixon’s Mad Man theory. For the threat of mutually assured destruction to be credible, one must appear credibly out of hinge and irrational. Or we can hope. 

 

That’s IMO what kept things in check with Trump. He just might have been crazy enough to hit the red button if Kim Jung got out of hand. And that had to be considered. And the majority of Americans agree, even amongst democrats, that Putin would not have pulled this if Brandon hadn’t been elected. Not coincidentally, the last time he did this was….under who’s watch? The establishment politicians have no surprise factor. You know exactly what they’ll do and respond and to a mad man that works in their favor.

 

Some get why they voted for, and others just have to live with it unfortunately.

[SharperDingaan]

The reality is that the USSR used to be a super-power. Now it's just Russia, and its the junior in what are now three super-powers.

The powers that be recognize they have little remaining time at the top, and want their 'glory' days back! Gaming wise they have little to lose - whether death by misadventure, or death by dementia/failing health, death is still very near.

 

The world has moved on, whereas these individuals were not able to.

THE big takeaway from 1945, was that an early and successful assassination would have saved millions of lives. The SECOND takeaway was that population/infrastructure replacement will touch off a long and sustainable economic boom. Putin in a box, as an economic policy; wars exist because it was not possible to reach a political solution.

 

Lot of direct investment opportunities presenting themselves, but expect to lose everything invested.

The reality is that trying to predict outcome on the other side of a difficult regime change is impossible. In the meantime try to take in as many Ukrainians as you can, get them to safety, support them in a fresh start, and get out of their way. Stand up to be counted when it mattered, and you will reap the rewards for DECADES to come.

 

SD

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Viking]

58 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

That’s the whole thing, you can pretend to forget what you are but you can’t reasonably put yourself in the shoes of something you know nothing about. As much as you may want to envision living in Ukraine or Russia you can’t. Nor can you envision living in South Africa and a black person, or a white person, and trust me, there’s a huge difference there too. Your “vision” will still be skewed by western bias. Plenty of Eastern Europeans who come to America love it, and still keep ties to their home countries. And it’s not cuz they’re forced to. Interesting side note a friend of mine was looking at Ilya Kovalchuks old NJ mansion which is current up for sale; an absolutely breathtaking place. But that’s besides the point. Kovalchuk has been in the US since a teenager. His family has homes in NJ, and CA, in addition to back in Russia. They in fact, prefer to have their kids go to school in Russia. By choice! Imagine that. There’s different ways of life and cultural values and it all doesn’t fit in a box. War is an unfortunate and ugly part of life. But it’s known to the inhabitants of those areas as a possibility. They can stay or leave or whatever. It sucks, but the people make choices. As others have mentioned, the US and EU have done tons to destabilize Ukraine. They deserve lots of criticism. But hey, now Brandon has his excuse for higher gas prices and fucking up the economy! Great success! Poke the bear enough and eventually the bear creates a gigantic mess. Then euthanize the bear and say it was cuz he was a violent threat. The western way.

@Gregmal The whole reason we are discussing this top is to share ideas, better understand the situation and hopefully learn something new along the way. 
- ‘walk in someone else's shoes’ is a mental model i have used for years for lots of different situations. I find it useful. Clearly you don’t. Just because it doesn’t work for you doesn’t mean it doesn’t work for others. Of course, i have no idea how ordinary Ukrainians are feeling right now - they are living real time though a human catastrophe. But i will TRY to understand.
- if a stud Hockey player of Russian descent want to raise his family in Russia that is great. Back to that self determination thing. My comments previously about Russia are referencing the Russian state - not the Russian people.

- Russia does not have a right (legal or moral) to invade a sovereign country and bomb and kill its inhabitants. Because it was ‘poked’ by Europe/US? Seriously? Even if true, it does not justify his actions. Is that the new threshold for war? 
- Putin told us exactly why he went into Ukraine. Well he keeps updating the list of reasons. The latest is he is liberating the country: ‘de-Nazification’. Not the ‘poke’ thing you mention… got to prevent the genocide… his words. 

————-

As Russian bombs pound Ukraine, and its soldiers pour into Ukrainian territory, the question on everyone’s mind is: Why? What does Russia hope to accomplish with a massive invasion?

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave his version of an answer in his televised speech Wednesday night, announcing a “special military operation” whose “goal is to protect people who have been abused by the genocide of the Kyiv regime for eight years.” Ultimately: “We will strive for the demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians.”

 

- https://www.vox.com/2022/2/24/22948944/putin-ukraine-nazi-russia-speech-declare-war

Edited March 4, 2022 by Viking

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Viking said:

‘walk in someone else's shoes’ is a mental model i have used for years for lots of different situations. I find it useful. Clearly you don’t.

I use it when it can be applied. I dont when trying to do so will just give me a false sense of understanding and arrogance. 

 

Imagine what its like not to be able to afford groceries. I can put myself in those shoes.

 

Imagine being black and gay and living in Saudi Arabia. I cant do that. Being honest with yourself and your limitations is crucial to anything. Saying I could do the later would be arrogant and disrespectful to the people really in that situation. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Gregmal

[Dinar]

Guys, I do not have an answer for you, but a number of my friends happen to be either Russians from Russia proper, or Ukrainians from Russia proper, all of whom live in the US.  While everything that Gregmal says is true - we did poke the bear, the real problem in their eyes is the fact that Putin cannot tolerate a prosperous Ukraine next to Russia.  Same people (ethnically/culturally) thriving while people under his rule are doing very poorly.  Are my friends/acquaintances correct?  I do not know, but that is one theory.  Another, much scarier theory that they expressed is that he has gone crazy.  A third one is that he just miscalculated - surrounded by sycophants who told me that Ukrainians would welcome him with open arms and Crimean campaign - a military success would be repeated again.  I do think that we are making a mistake.  We need to find a way for Putin to save face and claim victory (without actually winning), otherwise I am afraid this bloodshed and destruction will only continue to increase.  Russia cannot win this war, but it can cause hundreds of thousands of deaths.  

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

We need to find a way for Putin to save face and claim victory (without actually winning), otherwise I am afraid this bloodshed and destruction will only continue to increase.  Russia cannot win this war, but it can cause hundreds of thousands of deaths.  

Exactly. I was having a discussion the other day with some folks about this. Putin is very much like Trump where his ego leads him to constantly and compulsively "call and raise". He doesnt have a winning hand here and the only real way out, peacefully is for someone to recognize this. Not keep calling his bluff because that will end badly. 

[ValueArb]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

 

"1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or

political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;

3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind;"

 

Putins invasion goal was to install a puppet government so he could control the Ukraine. That seemed doable before the invasion, now it seems audacious. He may have pivoted to trying to wreck the Ukraine's economy to make it less able to withstand Russian coercion and interventions. 

 

What's likely going to happen is he'll eventually take Kyiv and most of the eastern part of Ukraine at a very heavy loss in Russian military equipment and lives. He'll try to install a fake government over essentially "The Republic of Eastern Ukraine" supported by Russian troops, but it will still suffer heavily from guerrilla attacks and assassinations. I think eventually he'll be forced to withdraw Russian forces back to Crimea and Donbas, the puppet regime will fail, and that the US, Britain and EU will use seized Russian reserves to rebuild Ukraine.

 

The alternative is regime change in Moscow, which would quickly lead to withdrawal of troops, a peace agreement and probably collapse of the Donbas as I think the new Russian leaders won't want any of Putin's bloody ulcer.

Edited March 4, 2022 by ValueArb

[CorpRaider]

From what I've read, Ukraine is like 5 WW1 sopwith camels with machine guns away from just absolutely decimating those russian columns.  I wonder if those migs from the eastern european countries (that the US is going to replace with good jets have arrived yet).

Edited March 4, 2022 by CorpRaider

[changegonnacome]

Listen we can talk all day about how we got here - it’s only useful in terms of what happens next.
 

Forget the mad man theory - if he is mad it’s no use anyway in trying to predict what happens next.

 

Lets presume for the purposes of an investment discussion, he’s rational.

 

if he’s rational - I think the aim is to wreck Ukraine so that nobody can “have it” - West or East. Buffer restored & the West doesn’t poke the bear again as @Gregmal rightly says. He will have thought the West he may be a declining state but one that makes credible threats when it feels it’s sovereignty or sphere of influence is encroached upon (save it for another thread on whether you think he’s right or wrong).

 

If the above is the case this is a regional conflict that ends in Ukraine in tatters and kind of frozen conflict.

 

The two big errors I see are (1) that politicians in the US & EU, driven by public support for Zelinsky/Ukraine, to please their public put boots on the ground and get into a fight with a Putin/Russia who have way less to loose than we have….all Vladimir’s nightmares of being the Tzar in charge when Russia itself collapsed to Western forces would appear before his eyes and we aren’t in Kansas anymore  (2) Ukrainian forces in an attempt to draw the West into the fight concoct some circumstance to precipitate an entry by NATO. For example steal some Russian weaponry & launch it at Poland. Why wouldn’t they? They would argue they’ve spent the last 10 years being told by NATO/USA/EU that they ‘stand’ with the Ukrainian people and democracy & freedom……but have found out everyone is an idealist till they get punched in the face….and now nobody is showing up to help at the darkest hour…..we send our sympathies & money & weapons….and do everything to help, short of helping.
 

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by changegonnacome

[ValueArb]

4 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Listen we can talk all day about how we got here - it’s only useful in terms of what happens next.
 

Forget the mad man theory - if he is mad it’s no use anyway in trying to predict what happens next.

 

Lets presume for the purposes of an investment discussion, he’s rational.

 

if he’s rational - I think the aim is to wreck Ukraine so that nobody can “have it” - West or East. Buffer restored & the West doesn’t poke the bear again as @Gregmal rightly says. He will have thought the West he may be a declining state but one that makes credible threats when it feels it’s sovereignty or sphere of influence is encroached upon (save it for another thread on whether you think he’s right or wrong).

 

If the above is the case this is a regional conflict that ends in Ukraine in tatters and kind of frozen conflict.

 

The two big errors I see are (1) that politicians in the US & EU, driven by public support for Zelinsky/Ukraine, to please their public put boots on the ground and get into a fight with a Putin/Russia who have way less to loose than we have….all Vladimir’s nightmares of being the Tzar in charge when Russia itself collapsed to Western forces would appear before his eyes and we aren’t in Kansas anymore  (2) Ukrainian forces in an attempt to draw the West into the fight concoct some circumstance to precipitate an entry by NATO. For example steal some Russian weaponry & launch it at Poland. Why wouldn’t they? They would argue they’ve spent the last 10 years being told by NATO/USA/EU that they ‘stand’ with the Ukrainian people and democracy & freedom……but have found out everyone is an idealist till they get punched in the face….and now nobody is showing up to help at the darkest hour…..we send our sympathies & money & weapons….and do everything to help, short of helping.
 

 

 

NATO, the US and the EU aren't putting troops into this conflict, they are doing a lot to help the Ukraine but they refuse to enforce a no fly zone or do anything that could provoke a confrontation with the little bear cub. I mean right now they won't even sell used MIGs to the Ukraine.

 

Ukraine isn't going to attack Poland to provoke a wider war, Poland is front and center doing the most to help them and is their most important ally. Maybe if the Ukrainian government would disintegrate and the war devolves into a bunch of regional guerrilla fights. Then maybe radical Ukrainian freedom fighting group would pull some whacky stunt but I think they would be far more motivated for a terrorist attack on Moscow than on a friend that is probably still supplying them. And it wouldn't work anyways.

 

This is Putins Vietnam. The Ukrainians are never going to surrender, even if the government is wiped out and replaced, they will be fighting across the Ukraine for as many years as it takes to eject the Russians and restore their government, and they'll be way better supplied and unified than the Vietnamese ever were.

[CorpRaider]

End game is he stops at the river to save face, best case scenario.  More likely he gets whacked or deposed because of all the Russian body bags and pissed off starving oligarchs (and Xi).  No man is an island.  I mean they can't even take mariopol which is like RIGHT on the border of crimea.

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by CorpRaider

[Parsad]

Putin will win this unless his generals step up and replace him.  Why?

 

1)  Ukraine is not part of the European Union or NATO...so they will continue to only get limited support from outside, otherwise we risk a World War in Europe again.

2)  Putin wants to protect his border and prevent any further progress of NATO or democracy...so if he gives up Ukraine, he will want major concessions...if he does not get them, he will take over Ukraine after all of the bluster from NATO.

3)  Putin has some sort of illness or knows he may be deposed...this is the scenario I don't want to think of...the f**k you to the World after I'm gone scenario.  In this case, his generals have to stop him.

 

The comparison to Vietnam is a good one, but probably won't last nearly as long.  If they take over cities fairly quickly, I think the World/UN will have to accept Ukraine becoming part of Russia fairly quickly, and the Russian people will have to suffer for 5-10 years as sanctions remain in effect and economic prosperity will continue to elude them...the price you pay for Putin remaining leader.  Cheers!

[mcliu]

This showed up on my YouTube. Not sure if this is fake news, but Ukraine uses actual neo-nazi units in their military? What the actual fuck?

 

[mcliu]

2 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

End game is he stops at the river to save face, best case scenario.  More likely he gets whacked or deposed because of all the Russian body bags and pissed off starving oligarchs (and Xi).  No man is an island.  I mean they can't even take mariopol which is like RIGHT on the border of crimea.

 

It's not conclusive that if Putin is going, he'll be replaced by a pro-West democratic govt.

Isn't there possibility that someone even worse comes along?

 

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Exactly. I was having a discussion the other day with some folks about this. Putin is very much like Trump where his ego leads him to constantly and compulsively "call and raise". He doesnt have a winning hand here and the only real way out, peacefully is for someone to recognize this. Not keep calling his bluff because that will end badly. 

This is the way.

[Dinar]

17 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Putin will win this unless his generals step up and replace him.  Why?

 

1)  Ukraine is not part of the European Union or NATO...so they will continue to only get limited support from outside, otherwise we risk a World War in Europe again.

2)  Putin wants to protect his border and prevent any further progress of NATO or democracy...so if he gives up Ukraine, he will want major concessions...if he does not get them, he will take over Ukraine after all of the bluster from NATO.

3)  Putin has some sort of illness or knows he may be deposed...this is the scenario I don't want to think of...the f**k you to the World after I'm gone scenario.  In this case, his generals have to stop him.

 

The comparison to Vietnam is a good one, but probably won't last nearly as long.  If they take over cities fairly quickly, I think the World/UN will have to accept Ukraine becoming part of Russia fairly quickly, and the Russian people will have to suffer for 5-10 years as sanctions remain in effect and economic prosperity will continue to elude them...the price you pay for Putin remaining leader.  Cheers!

Parsad, there was Ukrainian guerrilla warfare for nearly a decade after the end of WW2 against the Soviet Union; the USSR with its battle tested army could not finish the Bandera guerrillas for a decade.  Russia will defeat Ukraine, I am highly confident of that, but there is zero chance in hell that it will be able to control the territory.  If it does win, it will need a local puppet government, not actual Russian control - they will not be able to achieve control.  

[Parsad]

56 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Parsad, there was Ukrainian guerrilla warfare for nearly a decade after the end of WW2 against the Soviet Union; the USSR with its battle tested army could not finish the Bandera guerrillas for a decade.  Russia will defeat Ukraine, I am highly confident of that, but there is zero chance in hell that it will be able to control the territory.  If it does win, it will need a local puppet government, not actual Russian control - they will not be able to achieve control.  

 

I agree with that, but he will essentially get control or concessions from the West...via puppet regime or directly.  The point is, the Ukrainian people are in for a world of hurt and deprivation for a decade...the West essentially cannot intervene without the war spreading to NATO countries.  Cheers!

[mcliu]

It’s unfortunate NATO keeps sending weapons to Ukraine knowing it’ll become a meat grinder as Russia reverts back to more traditional military doctrine, especially when a guarantee of Ukraine neutrality might have prevented war.

 

The unintended consequence of sanctions might be high inflation driving Europe into a recession causing existing govts to fall in upcoming elections. Ironically, Putin might outlast the elected officials currently in charge of certain European/NATO countries. 

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, mcliu said:

NATO keeps sending weapons to Ukraine knowing it’ll become a meat grinder

 
We in the West will keep sending weapons and encouragement and instagram/twitter likes to Ukraine till every male between 16 & 60 is dead………Russia at a certain point will dispense with the boots on the ground & mechanized attack once the body bags heading back to Moscow become a PR problem domestically….and Putin will simply resort to carpet bombing & leveling the Ukrainian cities to the ground. This requires, what is happening right now, which is civilians to flee those cities to Western Ukraine or the EU leaving only soldiers/resistance fighters behind…..then he will level those cities. NATO/the west will watch on in horror but do nothing. 

 

Ukranian’s will return to whatever is left of their country and it will take decades to ‘get back’ to anywhere close to their level of prosperity they had prior to Feb 2022…..from Putin’s point of view it will be mission accomplished & Russian sovereignty & security will be restored & the NATO buffer restored & NATO expansion West finished for a generation. 
 

The USA will returns to where it’s security focus should be which is in Asia -  not a side hustle freedom & democracy project in Eastern Europe that has turned into a boondoggle. Think, for a second, of the mental overhead in DC that has been consumed by Ukraine in the last 5 years…& for what strategic goal?…….it got the last president impeached , a former vice presidents Presidential campaign nearly got derailed cause his son was on the board of a gas company there & lost his laptop and now it’s going to completely bury the democrats in the Mid-terms & as @mcliu says it could change materially the EU political map in unexpected ways as inflations and millions of refugees flood into neighboring states.

 

Its very sad but this is the way it plays out IMO barring any policy errors or missteps.

Edited March 5, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

We will see. My thinking is that as long as the Ukrainian are willing to fight, we should help them. It’s not that anyone really will put his life on the line, because he gets encouragement from someone else on TV. Yes, maybe Putin can declare territorial victory of some sorts, but I think Russia swallowed a brick and sanctions will have the economy set back for a decade and they become another Iran.

 

As for Refugees, I am going to flip this around and state that this is a great opportunity for any demographically challenge European countries try to replenish ranks and get a lot of hard working people that are way easier to integrate than the million of Syrians.

Edited March 5, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Peregrine]

The most balanced take I've seen on this yet. From MSNBC no less.

 

This quote was on point: "It may sound cruel to suggest that Ukraine could be barred, either temporarily or permanently, from entering a military alliance it wants to be in. But what’s more cruel is that Ukrainians might be paying with their lives for the United States’ reckless flirtation with Ukraine as a future NATO member without ever committing to its defense."

 

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/russia-s-ukraine-invasion-may-have-been-preventable-n1290831

[cubsfan]

^^ Yeah, the West, NATO, and US had years to address this threat somehow.  

Too late to put the genie back in the bottle. An awful lot of fools for politicians.

[Pelagic]

Interesting discussion on the last week of fighting in Ukraine. Long and pretty in depth: 

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

Good piece from MSNBC….I’m shocked they could actually write something that might contradict the prevailing narrative/views of their audience. In zero sum journalism,as it exists today, telling your audience things they might not like to hear risks them all too easily changing channel/website.

 

Geography is destiny……& regardless of the buffer zone theory of European security architecture being somewhat contrived by policy wonks & academics ….……simple common sense says in life that wherever possible we should try to have good relations with our neighbors…..pivoting as Ukraine did so strongly to the US/EU while taking such a hardline with the Russian’s was naive in the extreme, especially given the ethno-demography in West Ukraine………I think a mature & pragmatic political leadership in Ukraine, could have in a sense played both the Russians & the EU/USA (for aid, for economic development etc etc.) which could have been to the benefit of the Ukrainian people and the economy. Ukraine fell for the pretty girl from the West batting its eye lashes at it (who lets face it high tails it at the first sign of real trouble). We’ll never know or indeed we might find out when whatever is left of Ukraine emerges from the Ashes they might have learned this lesson…….….that geography is destiny & pragmatic realism (not idealism) is in the best interest of Ukraine in the long term when it sits with the EU/NATO to the West and Russia to East. One example you dont need to join the EU (& piss of Russia) to enjoy its economic benefits (ask the UK/Switzerland) - you sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). 

Edited March 5, 2022 by changegonnacome