Have We Hit The Top?

[boilermaker75]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Sad things is Ukraine was a nuclear armed nation in the 90s. Nuclear proliferation ain’t good for the world but it does serve you (an individual nation) well when confronting a bully superpower or regional power. 

 

You'll never see another nation give up nukes after this.

[Gregmal]

@KCLarkin

The threading of politics and investing has been integral to excellent risk/adjusted returns over the past 2 years. The majority of people I know on this board have been able to capitalize on this. How have you done? I would just hate to have people who are bitter about being so disastrously wrong and ultimately part of the reason this current situation has been able to unfold stifle discussion relevant to investing. I mean even a monumental shift in regulatory scope applied to big tech has changed things. Such as with stupid shit like GOOG and FIT or now MSFT and ATVI. Would you suggest we censor talk about that stuff too? Cuz lots of people here are big time dip buyers on big tech...go look at FB....should we go back to the echo chamber? Or eliminate the people who have gotten it right in a big way and have the returns to prove it in leu of appeasing those that simply dont want to read or be accountable to I told you so's?

Edited February 22, 2022 by Gregmal

[KCLarkin]

Greg, we are all just trying to make money here. You trolling the board doesn't help anyone. I shouldn't have to say Parsad three times every time you watch Fox News.

[Gregmal]

Anyhow, to avoid disturbing the peace or having @Parsad inundated with "please silence him" messages from the brittle, I will make this my last post in the thread. The thread fittingly called "the top is coming". After being one of the first folks here to actually call the exact top on the market back in January of last year. Right before the crying crowds got me a ban for calling Cuomo a liar and creep. Ahead of the curve there as well it seems.

 

Cheers.

[fareastwarriors]

Might be Time for new thread:

THE BOTTOM is coming

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Anyhow, to avoid disturbing the peace or having @Parsad inundated with "please silence him" messages from the brittle, I will make this my last post in the thread. The thread fittingly called "the top is coming". After being one of the first folks here to actually call the exact top on the market back in January of last year. Right before the crying crowds got me a ban for calling Cuomo a liar and creep. Ahead of the curve there as well it seems.

 

Cheers.

 

 

 

Why do you say the top of the market was in Jan of 2021? The market is up around 30% after that and is still up 17% since then even with the recent downturn. 

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, stahleyp said:

 

 

 

Why do you say the top of the market was in Jan of 2021? The market is up around 30% after that and is still up 17% since then even with the recent downturn. 

If you’re an index buyer then the last thing in the world you need to be doing is worrying about making macro calls and tops and all the shit. And if you’re a real investor or trader than you know exactly why it was the top.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

If you’re an index buyer then the last thing in the world you need to be doing is worrying about making macro calls and tops and all the shit. And if you’re a real investor or trader than you know exactly why it was the top.

 

Dude...you posted again in the thread! 

 

But seriously, what makes you say that it was the top? 

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, stahleyp said:

 

Dude...you posted again in the thread! 

 

But seriously, what makes you say that it was the top? 

Haha yea I saw the notification on my phone that you quoted me and the question was purely market related so I didn’t notice the thread. But anyway. Answer is the same. If you pay attention to individual stocks it was an obvious top. Scams, fads, spac, COVID beneficiaries, ARKs, meme stock, basically all the darling stuff. On top of all the people who got crushed shorting or who wanted to short but were too chicken shit scared harping on about “you can’t short this market”…That’s where it peaked. Most of those stocks probably never seeing those levels again. I ve never really used or followed the indexes as any sort of reliable indicator of anything. Who cares where they trade? Especially now where they’re all the same shit. If you’re waiting for them to go down some magic % as an indicator to buy…..individual stocks! That’s a poor indicator. 

[Parsad]

Guys, I've deleted like 50+ posts put up in the last few days.  Please move any political discussions of the Russian/Ukraine issue and its ilk to the Politics board.  Cheers!

[muscleman]

On 2/22/2022 at 3:41 AM, gary17 said:

 

It's difficult to be smart during this time i think.   my thinking is during periods of inflation, we want to own assets but stock market would under perform, which suggests perhaps holding cash is better-- which is counter to what one should do in an inflationary period.

 

I disagree that holding cash is better right now. Holding cash is only better when the fed reacts aggressively. Right now they are just chickens. They are no Paul Volckers who are willing to jack up rates to 20% to engineer a recession to cool down inflation. Therefore the only thing that would happen is that another bubble is quickly brewing while the stock bubble is bursting. There is too much cash around earning 0 interest and the cash holders are not going to tolerate this for too long.

If I had to guess, I think commodities and housing is where the hot money will be going. 

[muscleman]

On 2/22/2022 at 12:11 PM, Gregmal said:

Haha yea I saw the notification on my phone that you quoted me and the question was purely market related so I didn’t notice the thread. But anyway. Answer is the same. If you pay attention to individual stocks it was an obvious top. Scams, fads, spac, COVID beneficiaries, ARKs, meme stock, basically all the darling stuff. On top of all the people who got crushed shorting or who wanted to short but were too chicken shit scared harping on about “you can’t short this market”…That’s where it peaked. Most of those stocks probably never seeing those levels again. I ve never really used or followed the indexes as any sort of reliable indicator of anything. Who cares where they trade? Especially now where they’re all the same shit. If you’re waiting for them to go down some magic % as an indicator to buy…..individual stocks! That’s a poor indicator. 

 

I do care about the index because the contrast of still high index vs tanking individual stocks along is a pretty solid topping condition. Just like what happened in 2000.

[Viking]

On 2/22/2022 at 1:12 PM, fareastwarriors said:

Might be Time for new thread:

THE BOTTOM is coming

Well, looks like Biden was right after all…  If futures are any indication, it looks like tomorrow will be another big down day in financial markets. The Nasdaq is already down close to 20% so it will be interesting to see how much lower it goes from here. The Nasdaq is still trading 35% higher than where it was trading in Feb 2020 (2 short years ago) so perhaps there is room for another leg lower. We will see.
 

I will be watching for the ‘indiscriminate’ selling tomorrow. Reviewing/updating my buy list tonight… 

[LC]

Just saw a sponsored ad on yahoo finance “Nostradamus frightening predictions for 2022” 

[Parsad]

28 minutes ago, Viking said:

Well, looks like Biden was right after all…  If futures are any indication, it looks like tomorrow will be another big down day in financial markets. The Nasdaq is already down close to 20% so it will be interesting to see how much lower it goes from here. The Nasdaq is still trading 35% higher than where it was trading in Feb 2020 (2 short years ago) so perhaps there is room for another leg lower. We will see.
 

I will be watching for the ‘indiscriminate’ selling tomorrow. Reviewing/updating my buy list tonight… 

 

According to many on here, my 50% cash hoard that developed over the last 7 months is a burden and blight with inflation.  So much for that theory!  On top of that, like nearly 40% of my entire portfolio is Fairfax who is also sitting on 50% cash.  Christmas is coming very early this year!  Cheers!

[LearningMachine]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Reviewing/updating my buy list tonight… 

 

What's on your buy list?

[Sunrider]

On 2/21/2022 at 10:49 PM, Gregmal said:

Further kinda putting the absurdity into context, look at the map, and then look at the areas in question. Outside of 1) areas basically being pro Russian and a continuation of Russia, you ask 2) how does this concern the US? 

 

I mean these regions are more Russian than Alaska or Hawaii are a US territory but who’s counting?
 

But hey at least now we have an excuse for the high energy prices! Damn darn commies!

 

That argument has been made by some about other European places before … ca 1935 to 1938

 

took the world too long then to learn that appeasement does not work, Putin and his kleptocracy are unlikely to stop in Ukraine

Edited February 24, 2022 by Sunrider

[Viking]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

According to many on here, my 50% cash hoard that developed over the last 7 months is a burden and blight with inflation.  So much for that theory!  On top of that, like nearly 40% of my entire portfolio is Fairfax who is also sitting on 50% cash.  Christmas is coming very early this year!  Cheers!

My list is likely going to be very boring… as board members have likely learned over the years i like to trade around specific companies / sectors that i think i understand well (at the time). Where i like the set up. And to concentrate (less than 10 holdings). And right now, swing for base hits (versus home runs) kind of buys. Here are a few ideas:

 

I really like the set up for lumber companies right now. West Fraser was down 5% today and i re-established a position. If it is down big tomorrow that will be one of my first purchases. If Interfor moves a bunch i might add to my position. I own positions in Resolute and Western FP. (I move around a lot within these 4 names as they all trade somewhat independently.)

 

i also like the set up for Atlas. If it trades down to $13.70ish i will happily re- establish a position. I have been in and out of this company 3 or 4 times over the past year alone buying in the $14 range and selling after it runs into the $15’s for a high single digit gain.

 

i am going to be watching Stelco. They just reported so this adds a little more volatility. If there is a big move down (no idea) i might re-establish a position. I love companies that have significant cash on hand and more coming via strong earnings (and so able to buy back shares that go on sale).

 

Fairfax sub US$480 and i will be adding (already my largest position by far) but happy to add more if the price keeps dropping.

 

I also am considering JPM (an old favourite), Shopify, Paypal…

 

But i need to spend more time on this as there are a bunch of great companies selling at reasonable prices.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

According to many on here, my 50% cash hoard that developed over the last 7 months is a burden and blight with inflation.  So much for that theory!  On top of that, like nearly 40% of my entire portfolio is Fairfax who is also sitting on 50% cash.  Christmas is coming very early this year!  Cheers!

Yes, it cracks me up when people bitch about holding cash. Just because that strategy doesn’t work for them does not mean it doesn’t work for others. Getting defensive at times and holding a higher cash weighting has been one of my most successful strategies over the past 20 years of investing. Moving to cash locks in gains and preserves wealth. (That ‘don’t lose what you got’ thing that Buffet keeps talking about.) And after moving to a high cash weighting within 6-9 months numerous mouth watering opportunities always come along… Every year investors get 3 or 4 great opportunities to put cash to work. The trick is to have the patience to wait. Sanjeev, well done  

—————

i am currently about 45% cash after making a few purchases today.

—————

Liquidity is the key reason i prefer investing in stocks

over investing in real estate. But, hey, we are all wired differently so i applaud those who prefer investing via real estate and are good at it.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Viking

[Paarslaars]

I just use BRK as cash... they are sitting on a ton of it anyway.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Paarslaars

[Parsad]

23 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

I just use BRK as cash... they are sitting on a ton of it anyway.

 

No individual stock is a suitable replacement for cash.  If something happens to Buffett tomorrow or a massive catastrophe hits, the stock drops significantly (yes, temporarily, but it could drop just when you need the cash).  Berkshire insures some of the largest risks that require coverage and Buffett is 91 years old.  Same with Fairfax...Prem is now 71 and we know Fairfax's stock price is volatile with catastrophe losses.  Cash is cash!  You don't want to hold it all the time, but nothing beats it when opportunity presents itself.  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

Blue chip $AMC is green today.

[Pelagic]

20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Blue chip $AMC is green today.

And GME is too now, a major repositioning into high quality names today.

[Gregmal]

I still don’t really get the point being made about cash. There’s plenty that is mighty green on a short or mid duration basis that was both easy and obvious. We talked a bunch about oil or gold futures. Among other things. So why would you pick cash over those things(or other things you fundamentally like)? If down the line big tech or some shit looks compelling to me I’d rather buy some tech with proceeds from multibagger energy trades or double/triple digit irr event driven stuff than cash that’s been yielding zilch and collectively sidelined through the entire opportunity set. I mean weeks ago we were pounding the cash advantage mindset cuz there were big intraday moves in some names. And sure though not long later that proved to be a sucker rally and spending the cash then was for naught. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

46 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I still don’t really get the point being made about cash. There’s plenty that is mighty green on a short or mid duration basis that was both easy and obvious. We talked a bunch about oil or gold futures. Among other things. So why would you pick cash over those things(or other things you fundamentally like)? If down the line big tech or some shit looks compelling to me I’d rather buy some tech with proceeds from multibagger energy trades or double/triple digit irr event driven stuff than cash that’s been yielding zilch and collectively sidelined through the entire opportunity set. I mean weeks ago we were pounding the cash advantage mindset cuz there were big intraday moves in some names. And sure though not long later that proved to be a sucker rally and spending the cash then was for naught. 

 

In a crisis, correlations go to 1. During March 2020 both gold and treasuries we're down fairly substantially at first because thats what people COULD sell for margin calls and etc. 

 

Eventually they recovered and performed as defensive assets should, but there were definitely days they did NOT act as defensive assets and were down where cash would still have been cash.