Coronavirus

[clutch]

If they want to signal things, they should be signaling the correct use of masks.

 

Then there is Biden who pulled down his mask to cough into his hands. (Don't take this as political bashing, just venting about fake virtue signaling)

 

[Cigarbutt]

If they want to signal things, they should be signaling the correct use of masks.

Then there is Biden who pulled down his mask to cough into his hands. (Don't take this as political bashing, just venting about fake virtue signaling)

When observing people wearing masks, the frequency of technical errors is quite high. One has to wonder if that's related to distraction or habit. Pretending to believe in masks may play a role.

Early on in the pandemic, there was this video that is interesting:

@clutch

i can't resist to mention that, by denouncing fake virtue signaling, you are, by definition, virtue signaling yourself.  :)

On this topic, can we say masks are filters and call it a day?

[Investor20]

https://www.who.int/influenza/publications/public_health_measures/publication/en/

G  L  O  B  A  L    I  N  F  L  U  E  N  Z  A    P  R  O  G  R  A  M  M  E

Non-pharmaceuticalpublic health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza

You have to download the PDF document.

 

Quoting from this document: (NPI: Non pharmaceutical intervention)

 

Page 2:

 

"There have been a number of high-quality randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating that personal protective measures such as hand hygiene and face masks have, at best, a small effect on influenza transmission, although higher compliance in a severe pandemic might improve effectiveness."

........

Page 26

OVERALL RESULT OF EVIDENCE ON FACE MASKS: Ten RCTs were included in the meta-analysis, and there was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

 

[clutch]

If they want to signal things, they should be signaling the correct use of masks.

Then there is Biden who pulled down his mask to cough into his hands. (Don't take this as political bashing, just venting about fake virtue signaling)

When observing people wearing masks, the frequency of technical errors is quite high. One has to wonder if that's related to distraction or habit. Pretending to believe in masks may play a role.

Early on in the pandemic, there was this video that is interesting:

@clutch

i can't resist to mention that, by denouncing fake virtue signaling, you are, by definition, virtue signaling yourself.  :)

On this topic, can we say masks are filters and call it a day?

 

Lol I guess we can't resist virtue signaling one way or the other. I'm also all for wearing masks as much as possible BTW.

[KCLarkin]

"There have been a number of high-quality randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating that personal protective measures such as hand hygiene and face masks have, at best, a small effect on influenza transmission, although higher compliance in a severe pandemic might improve effectiveness."

 

The problem with the old, pre-Covid RCTs is compliance. You can give masks to kids in a dorm, but they are unlikely to wear them if the risk is small (e.g. seasonal flu) and there is no culture of mask wearing.

 

But when compliance is high, evidence suggests they are effective. One of the referenced studies:

 

In 154 households in which interventions were implemented within 36 hours of symptom onset in the index patient, transmission of RT-PCR-confirmed infection seemed reduced, an effect attributable to fewer infections among participants using facemasks plus hand hygiene (adjusted odds ratio, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.13 to 0.87]).

 

 

 

[muscleman]

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.

https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study

With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

 

[Cigarbutt]

"There have been a number of high-quality randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating that personal protective measures such as hand hygiene and face masks have, at best, a small effect on influenza transmission, although higher compliance in a severe pandemic might improve effectiveness."

The problem with the old, pre-Covid RCTs is compliance. You can give masks to kids in a dorm, but they are unlikely to wear them if the risk is small (e.g. seasonal flu) and there is no culture of mask wearing.

But when compliance is high, evidence suggests they are effective. One of the referenced studies:

In 154 households in which interventions were implemented within 36 hours of symptom onset in the index patient, transmission of RT-PCR-confirmed infection seemed reduced, an effect attributable to fewer infections among participants using facemasks plus hand hygiene (adjusted odds ratio, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.13 to 0.87]).

There is also the possibility that, on top of lower transmission, the severity of disease transfer is less because of lower viral loads. There are some data and conceptual reasons behind this hypothesis.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

Another data point is the fact that frontline healthcare workers working in high risk areas (concentrated active cases shedding virus and high-risk procedures for droplets and aerosols) and equipped with appropriate for risk equipment did not, at least on a large scale, develop disease as a result of nosocomial transmission.

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.

https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study

With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

i assume your thesis is that there is some kind of conspiracy going on to avoid meeting certain deadlines?

A few observations:

-Moderna is very highly motivated (too much?) to meet deadlines

-Moderna was looking for 30k 'volunteers' by September and adjusted their protocol of selection to better reflect the underlying population

-Without going into controversial issues, there are understandable reasons why certain communities may not volunteer as much because of a deficit in trust

-----

For those interested, concerning the vaccines, health disparities and especially excess mortality, JAMA has recently released (especially the October 12 issues) many interesting and impactful studies and commentaries.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/newonline

[Spekulatius]

^ Interesting papers. The paper below seems to indicate that excess death were somewhat undercounted. Granted Alzheimer victims don’t have a great prognosis anyways, but still:

Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-July 2020

Steven H. Woolf, MD, MPH1; Derek A. Chapman, PhD1; Roy T. Sabo, PhD2; et al

[Spekulatius]

The Swiss Kanton “Schwyz” went from “doing great” to “ Oh crap!” Within 2 weeks. Cause is apparently a super spreader  Jodler event (Swiss folks singing) with 600 attendants. Rapidly rising and constraint hospital capacity are the result. Schwyz is a relatively sparsely populated Kanton in central Switzerland.

 

[Investor20]

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.

https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study

With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

 

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.

Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

 

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html

The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

 

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

 

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "

[beerbaron]

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.

https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study

With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

 

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.

Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

 

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html

The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

 

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

 

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "

 

I'd say warp speed vaccine is something that makes me unwary if that means steps are being skipped. China and Russia are already bragging that they are ahead of the vaccine race. I suspect part of their lead is skipping steps. But what if skipping a step brings death to 0.1% of the population? That's 1.5M death...

 

I'll trust to get a vaccine if all the steps of the stages have been properly respected. Anything else is just rolling dice. Apparently, the FDA is holding their stand toward pressure. Let's hope it stays that way. Trump has little to do with how fast a vaccine gets released... provided he does not force to skip steps. Tests take time and you can't make a baby in one month by making 9 women pregnant. You can however provide funding and make sure the production capacity is ready when it gets approved. But again, any government can calculate the risk/reward over 4T$ deficit VS 10B$ wasted production capacity. I'm sure even Canada, say's to it's pharmaceutical industries, money is no object.

 

BeerBaron

[Investor20]

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.

https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study

With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

 

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.

Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

 

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html

The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

 

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

 

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "

 

I'd say warp speed vaccine is something that makes me unwary if that means steps are being skipped. China and Russia are already bragging that they are ahead of the vaccine race. I suspect part of their lead is skipping steps. But what if skipping a step brings death to 0.1% of the population? That's 1.5M death...

 

I'll trust to get a vaccine if all the steps of the stages have been properly respected. Anything else is just rolling dice. Apparently, the FDA is holding their stand toward pressure. Let's hope it stays that way. Trump has little to do with how fast a vaccine gets released... provided he does not force to skip steps. Tests take time and you can't make a baby in one month by making 9 women pregnant. You can however provide funding and make sure the production capacity is ready when it gets approved. But again, any government can calculate the risk/reward over 4T$ deficit VS 10B$ wasted production capacity. I'm sure even Canada, say's to it's pharmaceutical industries, money is no object.

 

BeerBaron

 

I am not sure if 0.1% (1 in 1000) death rate could be missed with a trial with over 30,000, upto 44000 in phase 3 - even at 1:1 treatment:placebo, that is 15000-22000 who got the vaccine. That would make missing at 0.1% 15 to 22 deaths.

 

And would everyone get it or only older and vulnerable?

 

Anyway 0.1% of 200 million would be 0.2 million.

 

"The companies said in a press release that they would increase the size of the study to 44,000 participants, up from an initial recruitment goal of 30,000 individuals"

https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/12/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-plan-to-expand-covid-19-vaccine-trial/

 

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/30000-volunteers-enroll-in-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-trial/507-a6bfa39a-0822-4575-9667-5a15545667ca

Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trial reaches initial goal of 30,000 volunteers

an additional 14,000 volunteers to expand the diversity of its phase 3 trial for a coronavirus vaccine.

[Gregmal]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

[Spekulatius]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

 

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

 

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

[Viking]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

 

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

 

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

 

Yes. Do stupid things with the virus and let it get out of control and then be forced to brake (eventually) the economy. Where i live (BC) we are seeing a spike in cases due to weddings, funerals and gender reveal parties. People are ignoring the max 50 people limit. Right before flu season. Stupid is as stupid does.

 

North America and Europe are seeing a spike in cases at the worst possible time... up, up and away :-)

[Dalal.Holdings]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

 

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

 

[DocSnowball]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

 

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

 

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

 

Interesting - I had the same feeling and behavior at Costco yesterday, and ended up wondering if it was just me feeling that way or a lot of others. Purely anecdotal and likely biased.

 

Anthony Fauci spoke at the annual ID society meeting yesterday and shared this graph comparing US and Europe's curves to date (attached) - looks ominous. Between the lines, he was very critical of the way US never shut down in a coordinated way and then reopened too hastily. He seemed to be very very concerned about what the next 3-4 weeks will bring. I agree with you it's the hospitalization rates that will drive partial closures. The frightening thing is that the way the US is responding, a large increase in cases and hospitalizations seems inevitable.

 

On the bright side, seems like Moderna's vaccine enrollment is expected to be completed within days and Pfizer's within a few weeks. The trial design is to follow up patients for two months after second dose, but if there is a significant number of cases in the control arm, interim analysis may reveal results sooner. When results come, throw in more time for FDA approval, and some more for rollout. Then wait for two doses 21-28 days apart to be given to be effective, starting with healthcare workers and high risk individuals. Even in this best case, his opinion (which I agree with) was that we are going to have to deal with this wave without the protection of the vaccine kicking in for anyone until Feb 2020 or so.

[orthopa]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

 

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

 

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

 

I never understood this. If you ran out of toilet paper and stuck at home why not just take a shit and hop in the shower worst case?

 

Irrational fear being replaced by irrational fear.

[orthopa]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

 

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

 

 

The summer time Europe cheerleader is back right on cue. Any comments on Europe?

[orthopa]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

 

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

 

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

 

Yes. Do stupid things with the virus and let it get out of control and then be forced to brake (eventually) the economy. Where i live (BC) we are seeing a spike in cases due to weddings, funerals and gender reveal parties. People are ignoring the max 50 people limit. Right before flu season. Stupid is as stupid does.

 

North America and Europe are seeing a spike in cases at the worst possible time... up, up and away :-)

 

There is no way that certain states in the US that are trending down after big spikes early this year are not making mistakes either. If in BC people are not following guidelines and letting their guard down there has to be similar circumstances in other states. Looking at the NY case count if 5 million people in BC cant follow guidelines and let their guard down how the hell are 20 million in NY doing it? I don't think they are as you point out as humans get lazy, let their guard down, get tired of restriction and ignore rules. That being said looking at case count there is a larger force at play.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

The summer time Europe cheerleader is back right on cue. Any comments on Europe?

 

Europe did a good job in the spring leading to a good summer for them and dropped the ball later. Lol

Because I praised them for doing a good job early I am now forever tied to Europe?

 

When the facts change, I change my mind—what do you do?

 

Oh, I know—stick to your guns regardless of new information—it’s been widespread in the USA since January...

[John Hjorth]

... Any comments on Europe?

 

Viking and Spekulatius are right,

 

Unfortunately, it's the concerning and depressing truth about many places. People in general are so incredible dumb with regard to "dancing with the virus" [, phrased well aware of the citizens of some countries do not have living conditions to "dance"].

 

There seem to be empiric evidence in available data for Denmark that the behavior of the youth seems to be the problem right now. My PM Mette Frederiksen will very likely announce new restrictions less than 30 minutes from now.

 

What a screw up.

[muscleman]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

 

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

 

 

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

 

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

 

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

 

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

[DocSnowball]

 

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

 

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

 

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

 

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

 

Let's for a moment assume the herd immunity thesis is broken (we don't know that yet). You're not the only one holding it, there are plenty of others who will realize this as cases and hospitalizations go up, and we anticipate they could go up fast. My question is, can one make money from this understanding? If yes, where are the opportunities to make money if a significant third wave hits?

 

Edit: this question is based on the realization that cases and markets have not correlated much in the last 6 months