orthopa

He/she doesnt, best to ignore going forward.

So with Preferred being wiped out they are going to put them in receivership? Then what? IPO them out of receivership? What are you even talking about lol. If he was going to give them the heads up he should have told Paulson back last summer when they were starting to work on FnF that. Hey John I know you bankrolled by campaign 3 times but we are going to work on FnF for 2 years straight, get everyone confirmed that we need to take them public then at the last minute bend you over so you dont get paid. Oh and you could have been Treasury secretary but I lied to you and Im going to fuck you at the last minute after Bessent and Pulte go all over the media talking out taking them public just to get your hopes up!!! lol Jesus Christ, that statement alone tells me you don't have a grip on the current situation. And no Sr Preferred does not get forgiven. Thus stay out of common.

I do. For whatever gain Trump would get out of this Biden would have also. Why didnt his admin do it? The path of least resistance with these investments has been the status quo. If Paulson dies today yes it still goes through. Cant stop the train now. If Paulson dies in late 2023 or Summer of 2024 Im out of the trade completely. Its unknown what Paulson holds but its safe to say "at least" Billions of face value of preferred. How does Trump benefit from this when the PSPA is restructured and the JPS fate is determined. Legacy? Maybe...but I would take Billions over legacy any day.

The whole reason this is being done is Paulson. Paulson has bankrolled 3 of Trumps presidential runs. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-campaign-says-fifty-million-haul-palm-beach-paulson-fundraiser-doubled-biden-1887679 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/election-2024-john-paulson-is-raising-43-million-for-trump?embedded-checkout=true https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ex-soros-star-scott-bessent-jockeys-with-john-paulson-to-run-trump-s-treasury-78130.html Do a little reading, its not hard to figure out why this is happening. https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/11/12/congress/paulson-withdraws-from-treasury-contention-00189010 “Although various media outlets have mentioned me as a candidate for Secretary of the Treasury, my complex financial obligations would prevent me from holding an official position in President Trump’s administration at this time,” Paulson said in a statement. Complicated for sure when you need the treasury secretary to sign off on a PSPA agreement to recap FNF.

Which Lawsuits are you referring to? In Lamberth preferred holders got a pittance compared to what they could get in a recap scenario and is being paid by Fannie and Freddie anyway which would hurt the recap math. They have already reserved the $$ for payout but collecting on them as a shareholder does nothing with an IPO option. Gov will appeal(cant remember if they did already) and threaten to drag out for years more. Who wins in that scenario? Shareholders want their money and gov wants 30Billion. I believe there is one other lawsuit that is DOA about the common and current PSPA allows for up to 5B of lawsuit damages in a recap scenario. Lawsuits are not going to stop this. That ship has sailed. Essentially shareholder rights to pre sweep $$$ is gone. Everyone's eye is on the $$$ to be made going forward.

I agree with nearly everything here. Ive made it easily mentally on myself and thought that Paulson will do whats best for Paulson. Trump as you mention is a direct extension of that. Paulson(preferred) will sneak out ahead under the guise of a huge 30B (and billions more in the future) windfall for the gov. I think all options are on the table for treatment of the preferred. Do they call the high div preferred and keep the low div? FNMAS has to be called by 12/31/2025, if not its 5 more years and that's the highest div rate. Do they convert based on div rate % wise ie more shares for higher div etc. Citi did this in 2008 I belive. Do they just turn the divs on? Current preferred rates not too out of line of current TBTF bank div rates. This would allow many of the higher div preferred trade well above par. Its probably not worth the mental gymnastics to try to nail down a specific scenario as everything on the table IMO. Id love divs to be turned on, that would essentially give me retirement level annual income. If converted to common and the float is low and FNF grow over time it will be a mulitple of the conversion price hopefully with a div. At this point I feel like if its heads I win, tails I win too.

I think for the reasons you discuss staying in preferred is still the safest way to go with this. Common under a dollar or whatever was worth the risk for some, ~10 bucks not so sure. I think the simplest way to think about this is when holding the preferred you aligned with Paulson. I don't expect either share class to 2-3x etc from here but the one to get hurt the least will certainly be preferred. 2 not horrible things are likely in store for the preferred. Div turn on, or conversion to common. Conversion to common will likely come with some sweetener to grease the skids. There has been some talk that if gov takes a haircut on their stake preferred should too. Im not sure gov should or will take a haircut. Why should they? Pulte already said gov will maximize their investment in Fnf and what is common to do about it if they do? Banks will be clamoring to sell the shares and one would have to believe in the Billionaire circles that many in the admin including Paulson have lined up money otherwise. One of commons argument's is who would invest in new shares if older shares got screwed. I got news for ya, both common and preferred have gotten screwed. Not a div or claim on earnings for 16-17 years and we are talking about a 30B IPO in a couple months. New money doesn't care about old money and preferred had the biggest advocate of all standing behind Trump during the inauguration. Im not trying to make it any harder then it already is. Just own the preferred like Paulson and let it ride. There is one reason and one reason only why this is a first year priority for Trump. The gov also has some interesting options with their investment too. Gov has multiple bites at the apple here, warrants, SPS and Liquidation preference all of which could translate into common equity, maybe traded for debt, all of which or a portion of could go into a SWF or be sold to the public. Maybe the gov sells the warrants to the public? Next step is the PSPA announcement I believe which hopefully is in a couple of weeks. With the way things have gone so far no reason to not believe on a Nov/Dec time frame for this all to go down. Ive added another large tranche of preferred as a trade into year end.

We need to remember that ALOT of people who are poor are so by their own doing. Who is not? The retarded, the handicapped, the truly disabled. We live in a country where prek-12 schooling is free, the transportation there is free, breakfast and lunch are free. Sports and afterschool programs are available after school. Then if needed daycare, housing, monthly stipend for food, healthcare are paid for etc. college is more accessible then ever for those in need. Even if you grow up poor, your parents are poor etc individuals in this country are given plenty of opportunity to not be "poor". Maybe its about time we ask why these people keep making poor decisions or understand that they make the decisions they make because they want to forego opportunity for better in exchange for guaranteed resources. Sometimes people who are "poor" are ok with subsidized housing, food stamps and minimum wage jobs. Its the others projecting their dissatisfaction that think its bad they are poor. People are upset by people being poor should be very upset by the decisions and culture that leads to poverty. Put your energy towards that. You will get tired eventually, throw your hands up and walk away too.

I find it interesting for anyone to call Trump a king when and if they supported Kamala as the pick for the democrats. The "king" in power then nominated the "queen" to be "king". No primary. Not a single person in smallville USA voted for her as the nominee and the democrats took it all the way to the election. Did we forget that? Are we really concerned about kings and queens and loss of democracy or just don't like what hes doing?

Yield spreads between mortgages and US treasuries have been in the same range for a while, no meaningful change yet. https://www.longtermtrends.net/bond-yield-credit-spreads/

https://x.com/pulte/status/1928089429211484425 Lots a bullish tidbits in these, listen and decide.

Pulte did 3 interviews yesterday, Fox, Bloomberg and Newmax. I bet these as well as trumps tweets have been trial balloons to test the water. The market is pretty efficient. If there was worry you could think this chatter would cause some movement.

Im sure there are. Other thoughts are consent decree to essentially keep companies in conservatorship but allow price discovery of common after capital structure is corrected. Capital structure has to be corrected first. That should instantly let all share classes know their fate as gov deals with SPS and liquidation preference. Pulte seems to be conflating public and privatize but maybe purposely so. Fannie never had an explicit guarantee so MBS spreads shouldn't widen too much and with an ongoing investment in FNF or paid for guarantee even more of a reason for no change. Either way looks like a busy couple of weeks maybe coming up.

Is it happening? we will see, Chuck thinks it is. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5321688-schumer-trump-plan-privatize-fannie-mae-freddie-mac/

There for sure is a plan. Pulte isnt going to tell you the plan. He already told you its up to President Trump multiple times now. You need to ask the POTUS the plan. Something of this magnitude will 100% go under the credit of President Trump. Interesting the court case he references. Notes FHFA and Treasury both serve at the pleasure of the President. This is 100%Trumps deal and decision. Pay attention to what he says