Liberty Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Forest Trump talking medicine: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1248698754556923904?s=21 I am sorry if it sounds reasonable to you. As we’ve known from the start, and as Rex Tillerson articulated so well, what a moron.
cubsfan Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Another fluke? https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says “A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus,” Chicago City Wire reported Thursday. “Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician, said she tests between 400 and 600 patients on an average day in the parking lot at Roseland Community Hospital. Drive-thru testing is from 9 a.m. to noon and 1 to 4 p.m. each day. However, the hospital has a limited number of tests they can give per day,” the report detailed. “Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease.” https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease. Sumaya Owaynat “A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,” Owaynat told Chicago City Wire.
Spekulatius Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 So does anyone know why is it that after Wuhan was shut down, we didn't see so many other cases in the rest of China? I mean if it was so easy for Europe and the US to get out of control - surely it would have just been as easily for the rest of China to go out of control too... what did the rest of China do that made the cases much lower than Europe / USA? Rest of China had a lockdown too that was more stringent than in Europe or the US. Population is wearing masks and companies go to great length to avoid infection at the work place (I mentioned before that they shut down air circulation systems in factories /offices and vent with fresh air. They possibly are very good at contact tracing too (Big brother state). I also think that the Chinese government is lying about cases to some extend. Now if it were a full fledged epidemics, lying doesn’t work, but a few dozen unreported cases or even death here and there to avoid public unrest seem to be plausible, If not likely... Interesting. So did the rest of China do physical distancing / lockdown like what we are doing in Canada/USA/Europe? I know Wuhan was shut and just opened a few days ago. It seems pretty amazing China managed to keep the rest of the country operating. I think so different parts of China did different things. Some had strict curfews in place. The info I got was from Folks here who work for an US high tech company with operations in China. They try to actively learn from their chinese colleagues how to deal with this specifically at the work place.
mcliu Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 USA Virus: The Chinese Government Has Convinced Its Citizens That the U.S. Army Brought Coronavirus to Wuhan https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wxe9yq/the-chinese-government-has-convinced-its-citizens-that-the-us-army-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan
krazeenyc Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 reinfection? relapse? a bit scary.... https://www.yahoo.com/news/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-161747102.html
gary17 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 USA Virus: The Chinese Government Has Convinced Its Citizens That the U.S. Army Brought Coronavirus to Wuhan https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wxe9yq/the-chinese-government-has-convinced-its-citizens-that-the-us-army-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan but the acronym COVID-19 is clearly standing for China Originated Virus In December 2019...
winjitsu Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 but the acronym COVID-19 is clearly standing for China Originated Virus In December 2019... Actually believe its the Chinese-Originated Viral Infectious Disease #19, meaning there have been 18 before it.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/u-s-now-has-the-world-s-deadliest-coronavirus-outbreak American deaths from the coronavirus passed Italy’s, affirming the U.S.’s spot as the epicenter of the global pandemic. Sure, we have a larger population than most countries, but after being among the last places to get surging cases from this outbreak, this is a tragic failure of leadership--and most of the blame lies at the Federal level (where CDC/FDA could have rolled out testing sooner, stocked up on resources, restricted international/inter-state travel, locked down places with known cases to restrict spread, etc).
Cigarbutt Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Another fluke? https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says “A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus,” Chicago City Wire reported Thursday. “Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician, said she tests between 400 and 600 patients on an average day in the parking lot at Roseland Community Hospital. Drive-thru testing is from 9 a.m. to noon and 1 to 4 p.m. each day. However, the hospital has a limited number of tests they can give per day,” the report detailed. “Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease.” https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease. Sumaya Owaynat “A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,” Owaynat told Chicago City Wire. The power of the data here is very weak but it suggests that the virus is more widespread in low or no symptoms carriers, which is exactly the underlying challenge with this virus. Think of it as an iceberg. The previous CV episodes had a very visible tip and almost no invisible underwater component. This CV (COVID-19) behaves more like influenza with a potential for a much larger invisible underwater component feeding the visible part for future development. Assessing if the wave of transmission is beginning, in the middle or at the end is important. Think of the Trojan Horse being rolled in the city. One could argue that the best scenario would have been to refuse the gift. An intermediate solution would have been to realize it was a mistake and try to mitigate the impact by containing the Horse. Another 'solution' would have been to (knowingly or not) go to sleep. Whatever the exact size of the invisible part of the iceberg (with more tests, we'll know more but present data overall suggest that the invisible part is small to moderate and still has the potential to grow++), what do you think of the visible part (deaths, hospitalizations). Using standardized data such as deaths per one million population, days since 1/1 000 000 person deceased, it looks like the US (still early the game, with a lag) will do better than Spain and Italy, about the same as France, UK, Sweden and worse than many others. Why do you think that's the case?
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Another fluke? https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says “A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus,” Chicago City Wire reported Thursday. “Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician, said she tests between 400 and 600 patients on an average day in the parking lot at Roseland Community Hospital. Drive-thru testing is from 9 a.m. to noon and 1 to 4 p.m. each day. However, the hospital has a limited number of tests they can give per day,” the report detailed. “Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease.” https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease. Sumaya Owaynat “A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,” Owaynat told Chicago City Wire. It says non-randomized. It doesn't say the selection method and provides no info on the false positive rate. 30%-50% isn't surprising if it's the family members of known severe cases or hard hit neighborhoods, you know? I'm not saying throw this data out either. It's to be considered. But it's a data point. No one data point can drive decisions, even if we had sufficient context around it. The most accurate test approved right now should show 4.4% positive rate in a population with 0% infection. We just don't know, but we will in time.
Spekulatius Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 reinfection? relapse? a bit scary.... https://www.yahoo.com/news/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-161747102.html Muscleman mentioned in this thread that his relative died from what seemed like a relapse ore reinfection, but it is hard to know. I think there are 3 distinct strains of COVI around it is possible they immunity to one strain does not guarantee immunity to the other. However, my understanding is that Coronaviruses don’t enough to overcome immunity. It’s all speculation Fauci was asked the same thing on Thursday if I remember correctly and he gave an evasive answer because there is no way of knowing.
cubsfan Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Another fluke? https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says “A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus,” Chicago City Wire reported Thursday. “Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician, said she tests between 400 and 600 patients on an average day in the parking lot at Roseland Community Hospital. Drive-thru testing is from 9 a.m. to noon and 1 to 4 p.m. each day. However, the hospital has a limited number of tests they can give per day,” the report detailed. “Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease.” https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease. Sumaya Owaynat “A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,” Owaynat told Chicago City Wire. The power of the data here is very weak but it suggests that the virus is more widespread in low or no symptoms carriers, which is exactly the underlying challenge with this virus. Think of it as an iceberg. The previous CV episodes had a very visible tip and almost no invisible underwater component. This CV (COVID-19) behaves more like influenza with a potential for a much larger invisible underwater component feeding the visible part for future development. Assessing if the wave of transmission is beginning, in the middle or at the end is important. Think of the Trojan Horse being rolled in the city. One could argue that the best scenario would have been to refuse the gift. An intermediate solution would have been to realize it was a mistake and try to mitigate the impact by containing the Horse. Another 'solution' would have been to (knowingly or not) go to sleep. Whatever the exact size of the invisible part of the iceberg (with more tests, we'll know more but present data overall suggest that the invisible part is small to moderate and still has the potential to grow++), what do you think of the visible part (deaths, hospitalizations). Using standardized data such as deaths per one million population, days since 1/1 000 000 person deceased, it looks like the US (still early the game, with a lag) will do better than Spain and Italy, about the same as France, UK, Sweden and worse than many others. Why do you think that's the case? I post this - because I really just don't know. But I have tremendous respect for some of the minds on CoBF - and certainly yours ranks right at the top. You are always balanced and find a way to explain things without the heat. Thanks for weighing in. Have a nice Easter locked up!
Viking Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 What needs to be done after ‘lock down’ is starting to become clear. The question is when will Trump figure it out? More valuable weeks are being squandered. With limited national direction and lack of funding at the state and local level (to hire needed resources such as armies of contact tracers) then ‘lock down’ will likely need to be in place longer. States that end lock down too early (before having infrastructure set up to test, trace and quarantine) risk seeding new outbreaks. And outbreaks in these states risk spreading virus back to well managed states. It is becoming more clear to me that a national strategy is critical to successfully manage the virus. This also is the quickest solution. But Trump does not want the political heat that will come with this strategy. Looking further out it is also clear that an international strategy is also required. This would get global economy back the quickest. We all know Trump is looking for less international cooperation not more. Bottom line, the next couple of months will be very interesting. Lots of fat tail risks, getting fatter with each passing week. A plan to defeat coronavirus finally emerges, but it’s not from the White House - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/10/contact-tracing-coronavirus-strategy/ A national plan to fight the coronavirus pandemic in the United States and return Americans to jobs and classrooms is emerging — but not from the White House. Instead, a collection of governors, former government officials, disease specialists and nonprofits are pursuing a strategy that relies on the three pillars of disease control: Ramp up testing to identify people who are infected. Find everyone they interact with by deploying contact tracing on a scale America has never attempted before. And focus restrictions more narrowly on the infected and their contacts so the rest of society doesn’t have to stay in permanent lockdown. But there is no evidence yet the White House will pursue such a strategy. Instead, the president and his top advisers have fixated almost exclusively on plans to reopen the U.S. economy by the end of the month, though they haven’t detailed how they will do so without triggering another outbreak. President Trump has been especially focused on creating a second coronavirus task force aimed at combating the economic ramifications of the virus. Administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations, say the White House has made a deliberate political calculation that it will better serve Trump’s interest to put the onus on governors — rather than the federal government — to figure out how to move ahead. “It’s mind-boggling, actually, the degree of disorganization,” said Tom Frieden, former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director. The federal government has already squandered February and March, he noted, committing “epic failures” on testing kits, ventilator supply, protective equipment for health workers and contradictory public health communication. The next failure is already on its way, Frieden said, because “we’re not doing the things we need to be doing in April.”
Spekulatius Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Yeah, I agree with Viking. They should really get an army of contact tracers and testing facilities installed as quickly as possible. Any outbreak will just totally undermine the economy if we start up and get large scale outbreaks again. Outbreaks will happen, so it is important get people confident that can be squashed quickly. Sounds like each state will have to figure out on their own how to do it, unless Trump provides a credible framework. Just uttering 10x in each WH briefing “ we have to open the economy “ is not going to do so. I actually agree we need to open it come May, but it is critical that it is done right.
LongHaul Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 https://masks4all.co/ Totally agree Liberty. Let's look at this analytically. R0 without masks: 2.5 Mask reduction effect on RO: 70% (my assumption) RO with masks: 2.5 * .3 = .75 Essentially an R0 of .75 equals an exponential decline in Covid. This means we kill the virus. FYI - read of a couple that died in my hometown after getting Covid in the supermarket. If you go the market (high risk) then you should definitively wear a mask. I strongly prefer surgical or N95 (if you have them).
Viking Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Yeah, I agree with Viking. They should really get an army of contact tracers and testing facilities installed as quickly as possible. Any outbreak will just totally undermine the economy if we start up and get large scale outbreaks again. Outbreaks will happen, so it is important get people confident that can be squashed quickly. Sounds like each state will have to figure out on their own how to do it, unless Trump provides a credible framework. Just uttering 10x in each WH briefing “ we have to open the economy “ is not going to do so. I actually agree we need to open it come May, but it is critical that it is done right. The crazy thing is we have all these unemployed people. We want to pay them for doing nothing. We also have this virus thing where we need a bunch of people to staff up a bunch of different things (like contact tracing)... Too obvious a fit? I am buying into the suggestion that Trump simply does not want to get involved. Too much personal risk. Better to let States and Municipalities struggle their way through it. Then he can come in after the fact and ‘throw some paper towel rolls to the needy’. Much better to sit in the weeds, let others fight the good fight and then come in as the dust settles with money, lots of ‘i told you so’ and look like the saviour.
LongHaul Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 https://masks4all.co/ If you have not seen this site recently they have really added a lot of data and information. Highly recommend it.
Cigarbutt Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Another fluke? https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says “A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus,” Chicago City Wire reported Thursday. “Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician, said she tests between 400 and 600 patients on an average day in the parking lot at Roseland Community Hospital. Drive-thru testing is from 9 a.m. to noon and 1 to 4 p.m. each day. However, the hospital has a limited number of tests they can give per day,” the report detailed. “Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease.” https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease. Sumaya Owaynat “A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,” Owaynat told Chicago City Wire. ... Have a nice Easter locked up! I guess we all try to wing it somehow. :) Happy Easter too.
ERICOPOLY Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 I didn't realize that ventilators only save 20%. Most Covid-19 patients will die after being placed on ventilators, with the mortality rate reaching up to 80% in intubated coronavirus patients, Smith said. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/nurse-last-words-coronavirus-patient-trnd/index.html
KJP Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Yeah, I agree with Viking. They should really get an army of contact tracers and testing facilities installed as quickly as possible. Any outbreak will just totally undermine the economy if we start up and get large scale outbreaks again. Outbreaks will happen, so it is important get people confident that can be squashed quickly. Sounds like each state will have to figure out on their own how to do it, unless Trump provides a credible framework. Just uttering 10x in each WH briefing “ we have to open the economy “ is not going to do so. I actually agree we need to open it come May, but it is critical that it is done right. The crazy thing is we have all these unemployed people. We want to pay them for doing nothing. We also have this virus thing where we need a bunch of people to staff up a bunch of different things (like contact tracing)... Too obvious a fit? I am buying into the suggestion that Trump simply does not want to get involved. Too much personal risk. Better to let States and Municipalities struggle their way through it. Then he can come in after the fact and ‘throw some paper towel rolls to the needy’. Much better to sit in the weeds, let others fight the good fight and then come in as the dust settles with money, lots of ‘i told you so’ and look like the saviour. We lack the institutional capability to do it through existing institutions. The CDC isn't staffed to do nationwide contact tracing and neither are county departments of health. One would hope the CDC would have already created a set of best practices on testing, contact tracing and isolation of the infected, including, where feasible, isolating infected individuals away from their co-habitants (there are plenty of empty hotel rooms to use!). The responsibility for implementing would then flow down to state, then to county, then to townships/cities, then to individual precincts/wards/neighborhoods/blocks. Based on the desire to help that I've seen among my neighbors, I believe there would be a surplus of volunteers willing to, for example, deliver food to the houses of those required to stay at home because of actual or suspected infection. If the President/Governors were to announce that this level of organization needed to happen, and all of our modern communication tools, including Facebook, were harnessed, I believe many areas would be organized down to the block level within a week. But, to my knowledge, none of this has been asked of us, and nothing of the sort is being organized anywhere in the United States. I don't understand why we haven't been preparing for that, even if we hope never to have to use it.
Liberty Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 He clearly knows a lot about this, even after a few months of daily briefings: Trump: "Antibiotics used to solve every problem and now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten to brilliant that the anti-antibiotic can't keep up with it."
Liberty Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Last night, I spent some quality time with the Apple docs on the new contact tracing protocol and APIs they and Google are preparing. I'm quite optimistic about this effort. Here's why. Thread:
Liberty Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 https://masks4all.co/ If you have not seen this site recently they have really added a lot of data and information. Highly recommend it. This simple design is one I'd probably try, easier than a lot of the sewing patterns that I could never pull off:
Gregmal Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 Why not just go all out? https://www.pinterest.com/pin/228487381080921624/?d=t&mt=login
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