Investor20 Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 "Like, your expectation would be if you isolate people into groups of 4 and never let them have any sort of contact with any other group, your death rate from COVID-19 would be higher than allowing everyone to intermix to their heart's content?" I dont think there is enough understanding to answer affirmatively. But it is possible if most of the infections are caused in close proximity in closed environments. Yeah, I don't think it's possible, and think that this is pretty much to the last hypothesis than anyone should actually test because it makes no sense. But it would be fun to write a science fiction story where this was the case. (Like some sort of scenario where everyone is infected by a disease, and the only way to avoid death is to interact frequently with people who have different genetics--all the people with type A genetics have to interact with types B, C, D, E, and F at least once a week or they die, etc. Figuring that out for the first time would be a bitch.) Again, I dont think theoretically its easy to come up with answers. What I am trying to do is look at it empirically. Empiricism is good, but you are much more efficient and maximize the value if you include some reasonable thought as well. (E.g. why wasn't your theory that infection rates are based on the number of letters in the name of each country's capital city? Or the per-capita number of people in the country who have one leg?) That said, analysis unsupported by data is as pointless as data without reason, so I like your dedication to empiricism. "why wasn't your theory that infection rates are based on the number of letters in the name of each country's capital city? Or the per-capita number of people in the country who have one leg?" Because aerosol transmission for Covid is now recognized as important way to transmit Because recognition of substantial asymptomatic people who can produce these aerosol just by talking - no need to sneeze or cough This transmission is most efficient in closed and close environment. I provided a video of Japanese researchers in this thread to show how it works. Why two people talking close to each other in a closed room is worse. Why the small droplets can hang over in a closed environment for prolonged period raising chances of infection. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/commentary-covid-19-transmission-messages-should-hinge-science Some pointers for your education (for talking rudely to me I have to use similar language. We can either make it a pleasant discussion or a rude argument) Underlying the CDC and WHO statements about transmission is this: Inhalation of particles near the source may be an important mode of transmission. Droplet transmission is probably much less important for most respiratory infectious diseases than is short-range aerosol transmission by inhalation. Aerosol particles are not all large, and they do not all immediately fall to the ground. It is rare for coughs or sneezes to be propelled into nearby mouths or noses. An increasing number of studies with animals and in human settings indicate that close-range aerosol transmission by inhalation is important for influenza.
Liberty Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 Japanese study on micro-droplets that hang in the air as a potential infection vector:
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 NY has 26X as many deaths as CA - yet the California coast is densely populated. You also have thousands living in filthy tent cities and no out break. In CA you have hospitals full of illegal immigrants - perhaps not overwhelmed yet... The social policies with both governors were implemented within days of each other. You had thousands of Chinese per day flying into NYC, LA, SF - more than any areas of the country. It all looks pretty similar.. There is an awfully lot of guessing going on here, that's for sure. Can't possibly be herd immunity, could it? Keep an open mind.
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 ^ I would say that NYC is still different than SF or LA in that most people use public transportation in NYC which is not to the same extend the case in SF or LA. If you ever took the subway or the LIRR (in my case) in NYC you knows how got of a transmission vector this might be. Boston also has significant public transportation for commute and is a hot spot as well. Likely other reasons like SF being really proactive (shelter in place on February 25) or perhaps the warmer weather might be factor too. That’s the thing with exponential growth models , a couple of seemingly small factors can make a huge difference in the end. So if this is true - NYC and Boston, and a few others have public transportation spreading the disease - the rest of the country, including rural America needs to be on total lockdown?
Liberty Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 NY has 26X as many deaths as CA - yet the California coast is densely populated. You also have thousands living in filthy tent cities and no out break. In CA you have hospitals full of illegal immigrants - perhaps not overwhelmed yet... The social policies with both governors were implemented within days of each other. You had thousands of Chinese per day flying into NYC, LA, SF - more than any areas of the country. It all looks pretty similar.. There is an awfully lot of guessing going on here, that's for sure. Can't possibly be herd immunity, could it? Keep an open mind. Nice peak into your mental model of what different places look like. NYC has very widely used public transportation, lots of international travel and close proximity living, making it more likely to have a higher R0 and so to emerge first. California would emerge latter in any case unless it got unlucky, because the conditions aren't as favorable to the virus as NYC. It can't be herd immunity, because to get to herd immunity with a disease with a R0 between 2-5 you need maybe 40-80% of the population to be infected. But if we already had herd immunity this quick, the R0 would have had to have been much higher, like measles or pertussis, right? But with a R0 of 12 or more, you need over 90% of the population to be infected before you get herd immunity. If 90% of california had SARS-CoV-2, believe me, it wouldn't have happened without anyone noticing it. So in short, your theory doesn't make sense. Not to mention that so far, testing in random population samples seems to give results closer to 1% for antibodies, nowhere near enough for herd immunity.
Liberty Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 So if this is true - NYC and Boston, and a few others have public transportation spreading the disease - the rest of the country, including rural America needs to be on total lockdown? You don't understand exponential growth and R0. Places that are set up in a way that R0 is higher emerge first. Other places take longer, but they still get there. Remember how in exponential curves it looks like nothing happens for the longest time and then it all happens in a very short amount of time? Rural places still get colds and the flu, right? In fact, they can potentially be hit harder per capita than big cities because their healthcare isn't as advanced and their populations tend to be less healthy (more obesity, diabetes, etc).
krazeenyc Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 NY has 26X as many deaths as CA - yet the California coast is densely populated. You also have thousands living in filthy tent cities and no out break. In CA you have hospitals full of illegal immigrants - perhaps not overwhelmed yet... The social policies with both governors were implemented within days of each other. You had thousands of Chinese per day flying into NYC, LA, SF - more than any areas of the country. It all looks pretty similar.. There is an awfully lot of guessing going on here, that's for sure. Can't possibly be herd immunity, could it? Keep an open mind. California coast not nearly as dense as NYC. According to the NYT, the the majority of New York cases are European in origin. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html Keep and open mind.
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 NY has 26X as many deaths as CA - yet the California coast is densely populated. You also have thousands living in filthy tent cities and no out break. In CA you have hospitals full of illegal immigrants - perhaps not overwhelmed yet... The social policies with both governors were implemented within days of each other. You had thousands of Chinese per day flying into NYC, LA, SF - more than any areas of the country. It all looks pretty similar.. There is an awfully lot of guessing going on here, that's for sure. Can't possibly be herd immunity, could it? Keep an open mind. California coast not nearly as dense as NYC. According to the NYT, the the majority of New York cases are European in origin. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html Keep and open mind. I am keeping an open mind, I'm wondering why these brilliant epidemiologists from Stanford are wasting their time looking at the herd immunity issue. Good thing they are not on this thread - since they don't understand exponential growth and R0 !
Liberty Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I am keeping an open mind, I'm wondering why these brilliant epidemiologists from Stanford are wasting their time looking at the herd immunity issue. Good thing they are not on this thread - since they don't understand exponential growth and R0 ! You know what they say. Keeping an open mind is good. But don't have it so open that your brain falls out... Herd immunity could be an end state if we can't suppress and contain it long enough for a vaccine. It's actually not unlikely, sadly. That's different from saying that California already has herd immunity because it has fewer deaths than NYC. It's also very useful to do serum tests for antibodies to random samples of the population to try to better nail down the R0 and CFR of the disease, but I don't think anyone seriously expects that we're already at herd immunity and we just don't know it yet.
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 So if I understand this - lack of outbreak in CA is due to no subways and crowded public transportation and because it supposedly arrived in NYC from Europe from someone that was in Wuhan. Maybe I should also assume that CA doesn't have crowded elevators, shopping malls, restaurants , sporting events, etc. Nope - COVID19 is now a disease of the subway. Not to mention those direct daily flights into CA from Wuhan - I guess those planes are just not crowded enough - even given CA has the largest Chinese continent in the country. Why are these guys wasting their time.
Mephistopheles Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I posted this link previously but the “BCG helps” theory does a curiously good job fitting several cross country/region differences in how things are going: https://www.jsatonotes.com/2020/03/if-i-were-north-americaneuropeanaustral.html Could be just a coincidence but interesting nonetheless. A controlled experiment is underway in Australia and we should know the results in a few months. Some conflicting data - France and Spain are not doing well. Spain is actually worse than Italy right now. Spain and France both habe BCG vaccination.Also, Portugal, which has no BCG vaccination and is poorer does much better than Spain, it’s direct and richer neighbor which does have BCG vaccination. So quite a few countries run counter this trend eventhough they are otherwise comparable. You've got it backwards. Portugal has mandatory BCG vaccine and Spain does not. France had BCG vaccine only for school children up until 2007 and for healthcare workers until 2010.
ERICOPOLY Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I still think it pays to be humble given the unknowns. There is a lot we still don't understand. Why are these guys wasting their time.
Liberty Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 So if I understand this - lack of outbreak in CA is due to no subways and crowded public transportation and because it supposedly arrived in NYC from Europe from someone that was in Wuhan. Maybe I should also assume that CA doesn't have crowded elevators, shopping malls, restaurants , sporting events, etc. Nope - COVID19 is now a disease of the subway. Not to mention those direct daily flights into CA from Wuhan - I guess those planes are just not crowded enough - even given CA has the largest Chinese continent in the country. Why are these guys wasting their time. Are you actually trying to be this obtuse just for the sake of arguing every single obvious point, or it just comes naturally?
Santayana Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 So if I understand this - lack of outbreak in CA is due to no subways and crowded public transportation and because it supposedly arrived in NYC from Europe from someone that was in Wuhan. Maybe I should also assume that CA doesn't have crowded elevators, shopping malls, restaurants , sporting events, etc. Nope - COVID19 is now a disease of the subway. Not to mention those direct daily flights into CA from Wuhan - I guess those planes are just not crowded enough - even given CA has the largest Chinese continent in the country. Why are these guys wasting their time. Are you actually trying to be this obtuse just for the sake of arguing every single obvious point, or it just comes naturally? I read that post and thought is he really trying to compare the density of NYC to California as a whole? I'm guessing he's never made it west of Chicago.
Liberty Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I read that post and thought is he really trying to compare the density of NYC to California as a whole? I'm guessing he's never made it west of Chicago. He may still be looking for the exit to his parents' basement, who knows? Both places have elevators, right? Visa and Sears both have revenues, basically the same company.
Liberty Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/04/trump-admin-pulls-funding-for-drive-through-covid-19-testing/ The feds will stop covering the tab for most community testing sites as of Friday (tomorrow), April 10, NPR reports. The funding program originally included 41 testing sites nationwide, representatives with FEMA and the Department of Health and Human Services told NPR. Some, such as the site in Montgomery County, as well as in nearby Philadelphia, will close when the money dries up. Others will be "transitioning to state-managed sites," HHS told NPR. While many of those locations will close or change hands, however, local media in Texas report that two Dallas locations have received extended funding through May 30.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 So if this is true - NYC and Boston, and a few others have public transportation spreading the disease - the rest of the country, including rural America needs to be on total lockdown? You don't understand exponential growth and R0. Places that are set up in a way that R0 is higher emerge first. Other places take longer, but they still get there. Remember how in exponential curves it looks like nothing happens for the longest time and then it all happens in a very short amount of time? Rural places still get colds and the flu, right? In fact, they can potentially be hit harder per capita than big cities because their healthcare isn't as advanced and their populations tend to be less healthy (more obesity, diabetes, etc). Only a cesspool urban dweller would try to rationalize disease spread in dense areas with fancy terms like R0... These places are not “real America” anyway (though we’ll take their disproportionate GDP output) Japan shows how this grows in urban places (Tokyo, Osaka): https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/1782780/embed
arcube Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I still think it pays to be humble given the unknowns. There is a lot we still don't understand. Why are these guys wasting their time. Very subtle.
Liberty Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fxoxti/coronavirus_deaths_vs_other_epidemics_from_day_of/ Day 1 to 100 of various epidemics from the past 20 years.
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 https://www.dailywire.com/news/nyt-calls-out-de-blasio-cuomo-for-coronavirus-failures-readers-thanks-for-finally-saying-something NYT Calls Out De Blasio, Cuomo For Coronavirus Failures; Readers: Thanks For Finally Saying Something My gosh, this just can't be - must be fake news - not Cuomo!
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 https://www.dailywire.com/news/nyt-calls-out-de-blasio-cuomo-for-coronavirus-failures-readers-thanks-for-finally-saying-something NYT Calls Out De Blasio, Cuomo For Coronavirus Failures; Readers: Thanks For Finally Saying Something My gosh, this just can't be - must be fake news - not Cuomo! “Omg the libtards actually hold their own leaders accountable for their shortcomings...wonder what that’s like...” Maybe Cuomo will start trying to pass the buck to WHO or a NYC councilman in Queens... Glad the NYT doesn’t emulate the Hannity model of “journalism”...
Spekulatius Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I dont think there is enough understanding to answer affirmatively. But it is possible if most of the infections are caused in close proximity in closed environments. Regarding microdroplets transmission in enclosed environments, the Chinese turned off all air circulation systems during the quarantine in buildings. Likely due to experiences with SARS.
Castanza Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 I dont think there is enough understanding to answer affirmatively. But it is possible if most of the infections are caused in close proximity in closed environments. Regarding microdroplets transmission in enclosed environments, the Chinese turned off all air circulation systems during the quarantine in buildings. Likely due to experiences with SARS. Do that during warm weather and your sure to end up with millions of dollars tied up in mold damage. My hometown built a new HS and to save costs they turned off the HVAC systems over the summer because the building wasn’t in use. Well when school came around they weren’t to happy to see their brand new building filled with mold costing hundreds of thousands of dollars to treat while also pretty much guaranteeing more issues down the line. Investment angle? Idk perhaps a lot of these commercial office space companies will likewise implement similar measures to cut costs unwillingly knowing what they’re doing.
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/04/coronavirus-new-stanford-research-reveals-if-youve-been-exposed/ The 2,500 test slots on Friday and Saturday filled up within hours, as news of the project — the first large scale study of its type in the U.S. — spread quickly through the county. The test detects protective antibodies to the virus rather than the virus itself. This gives scientists a snapshot of how many people in the county have already been infected, but weren’t seriously sick and didn’t realize it. And it tells residents whether they carry potentially protective antibodies – so may be immune to future infection. “This is critical information,” said principal investigator Dr. Eran Bendavid, an infectious disease specialist and professor of medicine with Stanford Health Policy.
cubsfan Posted April 9, 2020 Posted April 9, 2020 https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/09/jobless-claims-top-6-million-united-states-coronavirus-batters-economy-tech-retail-restaurant-hotel-supermarket/ 1 in 9 California workers have filed for unemployment as coronavirus batters state’s economy
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