2017 results thread

[rb]

15% in CAD and and 23% in constant currency. CAD really screwed me over this year!

 

Haven't really done much in 2017. Pretty much the same portfolio from 2016 with plenty of cash.

 

I'm glad to see that many board members have had very good results. Congratulations!

[UNF2007]

Looks like return on my IRA, which is indexed was 22.4%

 

Return in my self-managed funds 51%, from a single very concentrated position in CLWY.

[Fat Pitch]

~12,000%

 

1. XRP

2. XMR

3. BCH

4. NEO

 

I was heavily invested in the GSE's pref at the start of the year, but the Perry beat down got me to switch gears. Went full out crypto... Now I have a sizable position back in the GSE prefs since the risk/reward is more favorable.

[frommi]

6% in €, 20% in USD.

Currencies -13%, Puts/Options/Hedges -8% (mainly index puts), Longs +27%. Long side very diversified (~60 holdings at the moment, 50% netnets rest dividend growth stocks/REITs).

 

Learnt a lot about currencies and shorting this year. Going into the year i had a rough idea of a netnet system and a hedging system over the summer with index puts. After the losses in currencies i read a lot and improved my investing process. I did a lot of backtests on portfolio123.com. (somewhere around november, so it didn`t really change results this year).

 

Changes/Improvements:

- improved my international netnet-system, added past 5 year maximum price/ncav and size to my selection criteria.

- startet a currency system based on RPPP, carry, term spread and momentum

- started a dividend growth system based on value, beta and estimated growth in the middle of the year to get cashflow for living expenses and lower drawdowns on the long side during market corrections. (even though it is a diversified, defensive buy and hold system to minimize taxes and fees it unexpectly outperformed the market.)

- started two concentrated shorting systems with put options that are active all the year instead of just the summer

- net long exposure will be a function of CAPE. (learnt from reading hedgefund wizards and thought this is a good idea, maybe i play around with this a bit over the year)

- will concentrate a little more on the long side in the future, started this already with bigger positions in SRG and PBSV.

 

I think i found the way to invest that best fits my personality now and i am really curious what 2018 will teach me.

 

Congratulations to all, the average results in this forum are really impressive!

[Viking]

30% total return; stock picks were up 38% and currency was -8% (as Can$ was up about 8% versus US$).

 

Big US bank stocks were the gift that kept on giving all year; I continue ie to like US banks as we start 2018:

1.) tax reform will materially increase reported earnings (after sizeable one time charges are taken in Q4 2017)

2.) US and Global GDP growth will fuel revenue growth; growth may accelerate in US

3.) Fed tightening in Dec 2017 and 2018 (consensus is 3 increases) will increase net interest income

4.) regulatory environment in US continues to improve; changes in how the rules are interpreted will be beneficial to banks and increase their profitability

5.) all big US banks will likely be approved to return 100% of earnings when CCAR results are announced in June; dividends will also increase materially (there is some talk the Fed may approve dividend payout ratios of 40% Down the road) and buybacks will continue to be large (removing 5-7% of shares outstanding depending on the bank).

 

[valcont]

Probably the first one to report a loss. Down 15%, could have been worse had I not followed Writser's strategy AND ignored his advice of not investing in joke of a company called MRS. Doubled in 3 months. Biggest losers were FELP and OCN.

[SharperDingaan]

47% TWR, mid year repatriation of 60% of capital, all family mortgages retired, year end cash at 23%. Hard to complain.

 

Growing our T-Bill position through the 1st half of the year for a June 30 repatriation, saved our arse.  It kept our o/g and iron positions lower than they would have been, and forced some trims; reducing our losses and enabling repurchases at generally lower prices.

 

Bitcoin was a lucky break. The 700% 2H increase, on a portfolio 40% of its previous size, really goosed results. For us crypto currency has served its educational purpose, & we’re unlikely to return to it anytime soon.

 

We were lucky. Nothing wrong in that, but its not going to be repeatable for quite some time.

 

SD

 

[valcont]

Probably the first one to report a loss. Down 15%, could have been worse had I not followed Writser's strategy AND ignored his advice of not investing in joke of a company called MRS. Doubled in 3 months. Biggest losers were FELP and OCN.

 

 

BTW this wasn't a criticism of writser's strategy. I meant to say I got lucky with this pick. Bad attempt at sarcasm.

[james22]

~10% with 40+% cash.

 

Waiting for a correction.

 

 

[Uccmal]

 

2017: 2.7

2016: 36.8%

2015: -20.1

2014: -2.9

2013: 59

 

13 yr. average: 30.3

 

All after tax except 2017: Pay taxes directly out of my brokerage account.

 

I spent all year repositioning my portfolios for sustainable dividend growth.  Blowups: Aimia prefs,  and other small stuff that got lost in the wash.  Mostly, my stocks did nothing all year except pay their dividends.  Still waiting for the oil relateds to pop..... and waiting.... and waiting. 

 

[kab60]

Wow, some very impressive results around here.

 

I was up 19 pct. ending the year with around 20 pct. of portfolio in cash. Currency was a major headwind (some 12 pct. I think since I'm based in Europe and 85 pct. invested in the US).

 

The year was very volatile. Lost 50 pct. MTM on Aimia prefs and more than 50 pct. on Revlon from top to bottom. Lost around 40 pct. MTM on CBI as well as SVU during the year. Sold both Aimia, Revlon and CBI with more manageable losses around 15 pct. per position while SVU is back in the black.

 

While the first half was pretty bad (to say the least), second half was very good with both Interactive Brokers and Redknee Solutions popping (my two biggest positions). I think my calls on Aimia and CBI were decent, but the results were bad. I was up almost 50 pct. last year, but I made more mistakes that year that this and consider the big difference in returns more a matter of good/bad fortunes.

[compoundvalue]

+42.1% USD pretax. Concentrated portfolio with 8-10 names, low turnover.

CAI +192% and OTEL +105% did most of the heavy lifting. CLMT -22.2% was the worst performer 

[LC]

+44.9% USD pre-tax

 

3M, Philip Morris, Snap-on were all sold mid-year for nice gains which did much of the lifting

 

Cash was redeployed into Berk, Compass Minerals, Citi, Altria, DaVita, which have all increased between 10% (Altria) and 25%(DaVita) since purchases in Q3.

[JRM]

+32% against the S&P of about +20%.  After a couple of underperforming years it was nice to finally outpace the S&P.  Looking for energy to outperform the next 2-3 years.

[beerbaron]

About 13%, sligthly below my benchmark of 50% SP500 / 50% TSX. Due to Canadian FX gaining grounds on the USD, some years it's a tailwind some it's a headwind... makes no difference in the long run tough. Performance was achieved with about 20% cash. All in all, not a bad year considering the limited time I have to do research.

 

BeerBaron

[mrholty]

Ended at 25.4% which tells me I should just index based on the lack of time I can spend on it.

[LightWhale]

15.2% pre tex, 13.5% after tax, trailing my benchmark by 470 basis points (EFV/2+VOO/2)  :'(  and trailing most board members...Well done guys, fantastic returns (12000% by Fat Pitch, wow). 

 

Biggest winners: CK Assets 1113 HK (51%), Plus500 PLUS LN (81%), PBF Energy (66%), Visa (45%) and Tembec >400% but tiny position :(

 

Biggest losers: permanent loss of capital on RTK (B/R) which cost me 6% performance in 2017, and currencies shaved 7% of overall returns, but that's part of the game.  Also down -15% on Antero resources stock, a great company in a saturated market, and hesitating if to double down. Would be glad to hear from other shareholders on this.

 

 

 

 

 

[Liberty]

15.2% pre tex, 13.5% after tax, trailing my benchmark by 470 basis points (EFV/2+VOO/2)  :'(  and trailing most board members...Well done guys, fantastic returns (12000% by Fat Pitch, wow). 

 

Don't beat yourself up, that's a good absolute result, and as long as your long-term results are competitive with indexes (which can mean many things, ie. If you hold more cash, take less risk, etc), then it's fine. A one year period is arbitrary, and you can't always beat indexes or others. A problem night be if you never best them with a strategy that doesn't have other benefits.

 

Also don't assume this thread is representative. There's sample bias where those with good results are more likely to post than those with bad or even average results.

[SafetyinNumbers]

~12,000%

 

1. XRP

2. XMR

3. BCH

4. NEO

 

I was heavily invested in the GSE's pref at the start of the year, but the Perry beat down got me to switch gears. Went full out crypto... Now I have a sizable position back in the GSE prefs since the risk/reward is more favorable.

 

How much has your life changed after a 12000% year?

[thepupil]

Taxable 1:    12.5%, (11.2% annualized since 5/2013), this account runs hedged to a max 20% drawdown (via lots of puts), used to short, and owns puts that hedge taxable 2 so it's a little skewed downward but no excuses lol)

 

Taxable 2:    Whatever unhedged Berkshire did, more or less, no long term performance data, recently opened Fido account

 

IRA:            18.5%  (22.5% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only

 

IRA 2            ~16%, Fido account rolled over last year so no long term performance was a 401k in stable value previously

 

Roth IRA:    16.8%  (17.8% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only

 

 

Spent a lot on hedges and margin interest in my taxable (which is fine because that's the plan, I invest 100% of my paycheck in my taxable and borrow from it to fund living expenditures, basically I buy 100% of my takehome in hedged Berkshire. The IRA's underperformed but they are very lumpy and I'm okay with that.

 

Worst decision was getting rid of ~200 bps of BTC in 2016 "cleaning up portfolio".

[krazeenyc]

Roughly ~9% return  -- first year under 10% since 2008. 75% in cash and 25% in stocks.

[Dynamic]

I clicked 10-20% referring to my native currency GBP.

Would have clicked 20-30% if using USD.

 

Haven't done a full IRR or unitized measurement to reflect the time value or our fairly significant cash added (about 8% of end 2016 value), but simply ran it two ways to get a rough picture:

 

There are two ways I backed out the new cash added, one more conservative than the other when the portfolio is rising and vice versa when falling:

 

((Final value - new cash added) / Initial value) - 1 = 25.86% in USD or 14.68% in GBP.

 

(Final value / (Initial value + new cash added)) - 1 = 23.79% in USD or 13.60% in GBP.

 

Approximate average return = 24.83% in USD, 14.14% in GBP. I'd expect this to reasonably approximate my IRR for the year.

 

For comparison, SP500TR went from 4354.05 to 5212.76 = 19.72% in USD (Total Return Index before taxes). ##modified due to incorrect figure at year end 2016##

For comparison, SP500TR went from 4278.66 to 5212.76 = 21.83% in USD (Total Return Index before taxes).

 

As a UK comparison, ^FTAS went from 3913.55 to 4221.82 = 7.88% in GBP (Capital Index before taxes but excluding dividends).

 

For Total Return, the FTSE100TRI went from 5823.91 to 6519.85 = 11.95% increase in GBP (Total Return Index before taxes) ##This line added since original post##

 

Using the average of the two calculations, I beat the S&P500 Total Return Index by 5.10% and beat FT-All Share Index (excl dividends) by 6.27%. Not as good as 2016, but a pleasing return in a rising market and good even after adverse currency effects.

##modified due to wrong year end figures##

Using the average of the two calculations, I beat the S&P500 Total Return Index by 2.99%, beat FT-All Share Index (excl dividends) by 6.27% and beat the FTSE100 Total Return Index by 2.19%. Not as good as 2016 (+12.20% $ outperformance vs SP500TR, +36.88% £ vs FT All Share, +35.12% £ vs FTSE100TRI), but a pleasing return in a rising market with a little cash drag and only one trade near the end of the year, even after adverse currency effects.

 

Portfolio largely static through the year except for mid December switch from 10.5% cash balance to buy BRK.B at $196 (and wife's ShareSave scheme operating for 3 months at 1% of portfolio value).

 

Started year with 5.35% cash.

 

Year end weightings approx:

Cash: 0.1%

BRK.B: 65.5%

AAPL: 27.3%

WFC: 4.2%

IBM: 0.9%

HPQ: 0.7% (outside tax-free wrapper)

HPE: 0.5% (outside tax-free wrapper)

My Wife's UK Employee ShareSave Options Scheme: 1.0% (having invested for only 3 months at maximum savings rate - helps that they're currently worth 35% more than the cash saved) - outside tax-free wrapper.

 

I use a UK ISA which is exempt from UK taxes including Capital Gains Tax and Tax on UK Dividends. My only tax issue was 30% withholding tax on my US dividends. I might be able to improve to 15% withholding rate by switching broker to one that will process a W-8BEN for me, but likely at the expense of higher fees and worse exchange rates (typ 0.5% commission each way) when trading (because a UK ISA cannot hold currencies other than GBP if I sold, AAPL to buy BRK.B I'd lose 1% on the round trip). I'll keep looking into it, but currently get close to market exchange rates but lose out a bit on US withholding tax.

 

Edit: Update on 2016 figures for comparison (with nearly 18% new cash added compared to start of year GBP valuation) plus Trades made in 2016 and 2017:

 

2016 returns after brokerage and admin costs and 30% withholding tax on US dividends:

Native Currency (GBP): 54.19% return (average of 58.65% and 49.74% to account for new cash added). FT All Share = 17.32% + maybe 2% more for dividends (Outperformance = +36.88%). FTSE100TRI = 19.07% (Outperf = +35.12%)

US Dollars (USD): 24.16% return (average of 25.76% and 22.56%). S&P500 Total Return Index = 19.88% return before withholding tax on dividends (Outperformance = 4.28%)

 

Year End 2016 weightings: Cash(GBP) 5%, BRK.B 62%, AAPL 25%, WFC 5%, IBM 1%, HPQ 1%, HPE 1% (at market prices in same currency). 2% of portfolio outside tax-free ISA wrapper.

 

Year End 2015 weightings: Cash(GBP) 14%, BRK.B 66%, HLMA.L 13%, HPQ+HPE 1%, A 5%, KEYS 2% (at market prices in same currency). 8% of portfolio outside tax-free ISA wrapper.

 

No losing shares all year in 2016, and all new purchases made below both Year Start and Year End prices (in USD). Huge one-time gain from post-Brexit currency swing.

 

Only IBM a loser in 2017 (in USD at least). Slight headwind from exchange rate except for newly added GBP buying more USD than at start of year.

 

Trading history in 2016 and 2017:

13 Jan 2016: Buy more BRK.B @~$127 = rise to 80% weighting, cash to 0%.

03 Feb 2016: Sell all of HLMA.L @808p and Buy more BRK.B @$124.26, bringing BRK.B weighting to about 92%. Value trade.

11 Feb 2016: Buy more BRK.B @$124.56 using new cash subscribed, bringing weighting to about 95%.

24 Feb 2016: Buy 1% position in IBM @$131.70 using new cash (cash weighting reduced to near 0%)

22 Apr 2016: Sell entire A position @ $41.64 and arrange wire transfer into ISA tax-free wrapper (GBP)

17 May 2016: Buy 4-5% position in WFC @$47.72 using new cash and Agilent proceeds (cash weighting reduced to near 0%).

20 May 2016: Sell BRK.B @$142, reducing weighting to 65% and Buy AAPL @$95 - weighting 25% with proceeds. Relative value trade to take maximum AAPL weighting I felt safe with (assuming it had potential to double rapidly but certain technology risks too that might risk permanent capital loss).

Whole portfolio in USD denominated equities prior to Brexit referendum and huge currency swing against GBP very luckily worked hugely in my favour.

Mid Nov 2016: Sell entire KEYS position @~$34-35 and arrange transfer into ISA tax-free wrapper (GBP) increasing cash weighting by about 1-2%

Cash at year end 2016 (including new savings, dividends and KEYS proceeds) 5%.

2017 New cash added + dividends received, reaching 10.5% cash by early Dec 2017 with no trades having been made.

11 Dec 2017: Buy BRK.B @$196.69, increasing BRK.B weighting to 65.5% and reducing cash to near 0%.

Oct-Dec 2017: 3 x monthly additions to wife's employer's 5-year ShareSave option scheme (at year-end market value showing a 35% gain on cash deposited, with no downside if shares sold after the 5-year term).

 

Comments

The period 29 Sep 2015 (increasing BRK.B at $128.28) through to 20 May 2016 (buying AAPL at $95) was an unusually active period of trading for me as a number of decent opportunities at attractive prices came up. Perhaps in hindsight, I should have kept our cash instead of buying WFC and IBM and used it towards my AAPL purchase thereby keeping slightly more BRK.B weighting.

 

2017 was a much more typically inactive year.

 

In 2018, HPE and HPQ are non-core holdings and the market price now offers me enough to consider selling, bringing the proceeds into my tax-free ISA, perhaps increasing my BRK.B position. AAPL could offer me interesting considerations in 2018, e.g. if as some speculate, they repatriate capital to the US, they might issue a special dividend. If it's very sizeable, my 30% withholding tax rate versus zero Capital Gains Tax rate may encourage me to consider my options at such time very closely.

[Dustin T]

28.7%

 

Biggest winner of the year IPGP, IPG Photonics disrupting the laser market one fiber laser at a time.

 

Biggest loser DKS, Dick sporting goods wrapped up in the retail tailspin, but still growing and buying back shares.

[Fat Pitch]

Went from living with my parents to quitting my job and purchasing a beach house with no mortgage. I can now pursue my passion without worry.

 

~12,000%

 

1. XRP

2. XMR

3. BCH

4. NEO

 

I was heavily invested in the GSE's pref at the start of the year, but the Perry beat down got me to switch gears. Went full out crypto... Now I have a sizable position back in the GSE prefs since the risk/reward is more favorable.

 

How much has your life changed after a 12000% year?

[SafetyinNumbers]

Went from living with my parents to quitting my job and purchasing a beach house with no mortgage. I can now pursue my passion without worry.

 

~12,000%

 

1. XRP

2. XMR

3. BCH

4. NEO

 

I was heavily invested in the GSE's pref at the start of the year, but the Perry beat down got me to switch gears. Went full out crypto... Now I have a sizable position back in the GSE prefs since the risk/reward is more favorable.

 

How much has your life changed after a 12000% year?

 

Congrats, that’s awesome.