Jump to content

2017 results thread


writser
 Share

2017 results?  

524 members have voted

  1. 1. 2017 results?

    • -10% - 0%
    • 0% - 10%
    • 10% - 20%
    • 20% - 30%
    • 30% - 40%
    • > 40%


Recommended Posts

What's this, no 2017 results thread yet? Did we all underperform? Still a hangover from Christmas? I'll kick off things.

 

My result: up 23% in EUR (37% in USD). Currencies were a huge headwind, most notably EUR/USD but also the pound had a negative effect due to a large merger position. I don't really mind, currencies should even out over the long term. Destination Maternity was a trainwreck this year that ended up costing me close to 4%. Positive contributors were Retail Holdings, my Japan basket, Italian real estate and Conduril, but most notably my corporate actions basket. Sapec was an exceptional opportunity but lots of other deals added small gains over the year that really add up. STRP, FWP, ESSX, CAB, KZ, PERFQ, QUSA, SWC are a few that closed this year. I also participated in a boatload of microcap US bank deals.

 

As always I'm lagging significantly behind my personal benchmark but I'm getting used to that.

 

My stated results are probably too conservative. I generated a huge tax deductible with the Sapec deal this year that I value at last traded price but it is worth significantly more. I also have positions in non-traded warrants (PRMW) and CVR's valued at zero that should pay out next year (Safeway) or where at the very least fair value increased significantly (DYAX). I expect a significant cheque from the BINDQ liquidating trust soon (also valued at zero) and from Tejoori (marked at last price). All this stuff should add another 5%-7% over the next year or so. With all the exotic non-traded securities, CVR's, tax reclaims and tax deductibles I'm collecting determining performance becomes more and more an art rather than a science. I only manage my own money so I don't really care about super-exact performance numbers y/y. Long term CAGR is the most important to me - that's now ~22% for the six years I've been doing this more or less full-time.

 

Probably even more important than the actual results: am I happy with my decision-making this year? As always, the answer is: meh. I'm happy with:

 

+ Most importantly, my 6-year CAGR is still over 22% and if I can sustain even one-third of that over the long run I'm pretty much set.

+ I'm generating my results with a somewhat conservative portfolio, I hardly ever have a >10% position and most of my holdings are either short-term corporate actions or have a conservative balance sheet.

+ For several reasons I'm funnelling more and more cash into corporate actions. This is a space with high turnover and where it is relatively easy to measure performance. Based on my results over the past few years I think I can assume I generate some alpha here.

 

- I'm probably too cautious with position sizing sometimes: even when I'm convinced an idea is very good I almost shit my pants when I try to up it above a 5% allocation.

- I'm too lazy: I generate / collect a lot of ideas but I often have a quick opinion about a stock without doing extended research as, for example, Picasso did on FELP the past few years.

- I have a tendency to sell positions too fast, i.e. I buy a merger at a 4% spread, then sell it at 1% a week before the closing.

- When I get bored I occasionally spew away some pocket change trying to flip a bitcoin stock or shorting some pump & dump. STOP DOING THAT!

 

That's all. Ended up a bit longer than I expected. Happy new year!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 104
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I see your poll isn't designed with crypto enthusiasts in mind. It's a bit sad to select >40% after a +1000% year :P (there must be some of these people, although I wonder if we can find them here)

 

PS. I just voted for >30%, but perhaps I should have gone for the >40% option since for me I realized 30% in euro versus 49% in dollars.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2015: studied value investing, discovered CoBF

2016: 192% (tax free ira)

2017: 7% (tax free ira + taxable brokerage)

 

 

Antibiotic companies down 40% from mid year despite the story progressing on track, patiently await recovery. Happy to be learning everyday and grateful to compound at above inflation rate and risk free rate! No scope for envy or jealousy. Paid off our mortgage and completed my MBA in 2017.

 

Portfolio:

AKAO    PRTK    FNMAT    FMCKL    Cash

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see your poll isn't designed with crypto enthusiasts in mind. It's a bit sad to select >40% after a +1000% year :P (there must be some of these people, although I wonder if we can find them here)

 

PS. I just voted for >30%, but perhaps I should have gone for the >40% option since for me I realized 30% in euro versus 49% in dollars.

 

Yeah, no currency in the poll makes results a bit arbitrary. Would be nice anyway if people give a small explanation besides just a percentage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ending the year at -21% in €, oil/gas + FELP were the big killers this year, along with DEST.

Sold AMZN, AAPL & BAC way to early it seemed.

Lots of headwind because of the currency of course but I've have had tailwinds of it in the past so no complaints here.

 

Most of what I touched this year went bad, I believe it is some kind of karma as I've had great fortune in my private & professional life.

So my apologies to anyone who invested alongside me, my karma dragged you down. :)

 

Truth be told my due diligence was lacking in 2017, new job + baby has been taking up so much time.

I'm looking into a more passive form of investing, bigger/safer companies and a more concentrated portfolio that requires less work on my part.

 

PS: I voted <10% as I do not fall into the -10% - 0% range, I assume this was meant to be the <-10% range?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7% for me.

 

The good:

AMZN, GOOG, BRK (continued holding), NVDA (continued holding until early this year)

FFH (bought a lot at the bottom + sold the most recently)

Good timing with some Canadian oil stocks

 

The bad:

Big blow ups... DEST, AIM.TO preferreds, MND.TO

Small blow up... CBI

Sold NVDA too soon (it doubled up since I sold them!)

 

p.s. I've made some minor investments in crypto currencies that are up ~300% but didn't include them since I consider them as gambling. I took the original investment out and now just rolling the dice with the house money. ;D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35%. Primarily due to GNCMA, loaded up back at the lows of August 2016 and LVNTA bought them out in the beginning of Q2 2017 for ~2x YTD. Ditto FRMO, bought at the lows this year and their crypto voodoo had it as a 3x. ATUSF and OZM were also positives for the year. Sold HCOM for a decent profit after they got bought out by CBB. Took a loss on AIQ's takeunder. MTM losses on AWLCF and STNG.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

~10% USD, pre-tax

 

2016: ~22% USD, pre-tax

 

Biggest difference between 2016 and 2017 was a series of blunders (both analytical and portfolio management) regarding Rentech that ultimately cost me ~850 bps of performance this year.  Fortress Paper also cost me ~380 bps this year.

 

The positive returns came from several investments that appreciated 20-60%, most of which have been discussed elsewhere on this board:  Command Center, PAR Technology, Parkit, QVC, EZCorp, Keck Seng, Gaia, Clarus (formerly Black Diamond).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some ETF/hurdle rates:  YTD through 12/29

 

QVAL:  25.60%

IUSV:  15.09%

RPV:    17.29%

VBR:    11.80%

RFV:    14.73%

FNDB:  16.93%

VIG:    22.22%

VTI:      21.21%

 

IVAL:    31.02%

FNDF:  23.95%

IEFA:    26.59%

VWO:    31.48%

IEMG:  37.40%

VXUS:  27.45%

VIGI:    27.96%

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some ETF/hurdle rates:  YTD through 12/29

 

QVAL:  24.08%

IUSV:  12.75%

RPV:    15.11%

VBR:    9.74%

RFV:    13.04%

FNDB:  14.57%

IVAL:    31.02%

FNDF:  21.12%

IEFA:    23.23%

VWO:    28.31%

IEMG:  34.04%

VXUS:  23.82%

VTI:      19.02%

 

Thank you for another reminder that I should probably switch to indexing.  :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

About +14% in CAD.  +21% in USD.  20% cash for most of the year.  I benchmark to the S&P 500 and I beat it if you exclude my cash.  I am happy with these results.  I generally outperform in a down market but in the meanwhile it is tough just to keep up.

 

TSLA and Bollore were my big winners this year.  I don't want to discuss my losers :) .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

+ 35.5% USD. 

 

Five biggest gainers are: Autohellas (+93.4%), General Communications (+93.1%), Lotte Chilsung Pfd (including spin-off consideration) (+73.2%), KIH Pfd (+57.2%) & Gray Television (+51.6%). 

 

Five biggest losers: Swick Mining (-25%), Gear Energy (-24.1%),  Deasang Hold Pfd (-5.4%), sebang Pfd (-3.1%) & Hyundai HCN (-2.1%). 

 

Overall a good year with natural resources lagging significantly.  If oil prices stay where they are or go up hopefully the stocks will increase next year.

 

Packer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice results and thanks for the discussion of the results.

 

~15% for me in USD. Biggest winners were HNZ (announced a sale), RICK (shares repriced after good capital allocation), and PNTR (microcap spinoff which has repriced following strong execution). Losers were OCN (I underestimated the regulatory death by 1000 cuts), and CMG (customers haven't returned like I expected them to).

 

Also have a fairly significant short basket that was a pretty significant detractor on performance. One benefit of the short basket is it lets me mentally swing a bit harder at long positions. Some of these I expect to come around eventually, but I'm not sure of the right balance.

 

Few things I'm focusing on in 2018:

1. Documenting my research and seeking criticism (Based on reading Ray Dalio's book). Have some write-ups I'll share for feedback once I get through the holidays.

2. Continue focusing long portfolio in strong companies with increasing intrinsic values. As they summarized in University of Berkshire Hathaway, look for businesses with decreasing market value and increasing intrinsic value. 

3. Special situations / corporate actions: My swings here have all been small, but 2017 was the first year I had these in my portfolio. Would like to incorporate a larger percentage of these for uncorrelated returns. Thanks to Writser and others for sharing these... hopefully I can contribute rather than just take ideas in 2018.

4. Short positions - These have been a fairly significant detractor like I said, but they have helped me to be fully invested.

 

Thanks all for your ideas, thoughts and feedback. I forget when I found this site, but the community here has been a great find. In 2017 I went to my first annual meeting (Fairfax). That was a great experience and I'm looking forward to going to more meetings and putting some faces to screen names.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ll separate stocks from crypto currencies.

 

Stocks 27% Driven by Overstock, MKL, BACWSA, Amazon, Apple I had a really good year all around, but the S&P was not far behind, so I didn’t beat the market by much.

 

Crypto portfolio 3900%, has been as high as 5000% in early December.

 

Crypto went from being less than 1% of my total portfolio to around 65% now.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some ETF/hurdle rates:  YTD through 12/29

 

QVAL:  24.08%

IUSV:  12.75%

RPV:    15.11%

VBR:    9.74%

RFV:    13.04%

FNDB:  14.57%

IVAL:    31.02%

FNDF:  21.12%

IEFA:    23.23%

VWO:    28.31%

IEMG:  34.04%

VXUS:  23.82%

VTI:      19.02%

 

Thank you for another reminder that I should probably switch to indexing.  :)

 

Yeah, probably good to keep our bull market genius in perspective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share




×
×
  • Create New...