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LightWhale

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  1. Interesting observing the age differences there. The young feel invincible, the old not so much? Either that, or Ackman has already made his year by hedging the original downdraft and riding the ride up. He probably isn't as worried about additional downside in markets because he's already locked in massive outperformance for the year, earned his fees, and will probably have dramatic alpha for 2020 regardless of if markets are up or down over the next 8 months . Another difference is that Ackman is more of a finance trader who looks at each part in isolation. Buffett, Zell, and possibly Larry Fink are all looking at the intricacies of the economy, as a collection of complex systems, from a bird's eye view. Think of it as the difference between object oriented vs system design coding.
  2. That's a great source, thanks.
  3. Anyone has a transcript of the entire meeting?
  4. This thread is turning into 'Ask Eric! II' :) And it's about time.
  5. At-the-money calls, out-of-the-money calls, and cash. I will have a lot of cash at some point here, because of a full redemption at Dec 31st prices -- still waiting for the audit to complete before releasing the cash to me. Are these ATM calls LEAPS or near term? I'm assuming the latter, but finding it hard to decide for myself which ones to go for. Thanks.
  6. CTL does not buy back stock because of its dividends, but insiders have been buying in the last week, including the CFO
  7. "Extinction" of what? Common sense. Thanks. made my day.
  8. Pittsburgh does sound awesome. Jurgis, save me a room. Thank you guys for the comments.
  9. If you know mind numbing smart guys who do AI, are worth $0.5M in annual salary, and would truly work for free, why don't you send them over? I'm serious. But until that materialises, forgive me for remaining doubtful.
  10. It's a matter of opportunity cost. How much do you think such engineers make at Google/Facebook/Amazon?
  11. startups are in a bubble only if you think public markets, and FAANG stocks in particular, are in a bubble. The need for greater funding comes from inflated labour costs. We compete with rising salaries in those public companies. Hiring a proper engineer for less than $200k (and % equity) is a real struggle. Re And with illiquid stocks the risk of overfitting is alarming. re revenues, we haven't even started building the product. But we've gone through the PoC process with some potential S&P 500 customers. That's no reason to celebrate though, and chances are still skewed towards failure. Thanks for the community tip. Real-life connections are indispensable. I'm in touch with various entrepreneurs, but it's uncomfortable to always be on the asking side. It's probably obvious to say, but shallow learning might work better for trading than deep learning, because of the low signal-to-noise and the moving goalpost inherent in asset pricing problems. Plus, if the main factor is momentum, maybe it's because these models try to forecast changes in the risk premium? But I know far less than you as it sounds, so i'll try to stick to what I know :)
  12. you mean ML apps in investing? I don't see a reason that correlations would zoom in only on momentum, but it's not my field. Ultimately it would depend on the specific methods employed. ML is a fuzzy term, a suite of dissimilar methods of search ranging from generalised linear models to KNN, regression trees and deep neural networks, which are nonlinear. Plus the results will be heavily reliant on the input quality, where it is very hard to beat the big funds. Does it answer your Q? if you could be more specific, I'll try to help more.
  13. That's a great tip, thanks. I'll have a look at their youtube channel. We got enough funding to have breathing room in case the world falls apart in the next 18 months, but we took it from investors with less infrastructure than traditional VC's.
  14. Thanks guys. There's already a very solid idea of what the product should be. And funding is secured ;) But seriously, we've already received seed funding guarantee for $5-6m. It's more about how to perform the everyday, non-technical practicalities that I anticipate to struggle with. Jurgis, thanks for the offer, and I'll check out the subreddit forums you suggested.
  15. Hi guys, I'm considering joining a ML startup as a founding member. This field of building young tech companies is new to me (my background is in theoretical science). During the last years when I was doing value investing on the side, CoBF and its members taught me much more about the practicalities of investing than any business school could have. So I'm wondering of any of you knows a similar discussion board for startups? Dealing with VC investors, finding HR & accounting vendors, buying insurance, issuing visas for foreign employees, and running cap tables are common themes that I'm about to bang my head into, and 10-15 pages of discussion about of each topic would probably save me endless days and mistakes. Thanks!
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