SafetyinNumbers Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, dartmonkey said: The recovery of IIFL Finance continues. To recap, they got into some regulatory trouble in March as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) asked IIFL FInance to stop sanctioning or disbursing gold loans after raising concerns about the company's gold loan portfolio. The share price dropped from about 600 to close to 300, and IIFL issued shares (at 300 INR) and debt, FIH participating in both. FIH now owns 15.1% of the firm, and with shares at 517.60 at the June 30 close, well up from 340.10 at the end of Q1 and 2/3 of the way back to the 600 region. For FIH, the impact on Q2 results should be significant, as this represents a $137m increase in this mark-to-market stake, reversing most of the $178m Q1 loss, for a gain of almost exactly $1 per FIH share. Most of FIH's book value is in the Bangalore Airport, and there are other private investments like Sanmar Chemical, 7 Islands Shipping and Maxop Engineering. But looking at the five big public investments, worth about a third of FIH's total book value, they seem to have all gone in the right direction. Ignoring USD:INR (which stayed at exactly 83.7), FIH's 5 biggest public investments were up 30% in total: Q2 report was August 3rd last year, so I guess we'll know in about 4 weeks, but it looks like results should be dramatically better than Q1. Thanks for tallying up the quarterly gains, @dartmonkey. This should make a decent difference to FFH’s Q2 results as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dartmonkey Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 58 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Thanks for tallying up the quarterly gains, @dartmonkey. This should make a decent difference to FFH’s Q2 results as well. Fairfax gives FIH a carrying value of $1971m at March 31st, and a 'fair value' of $3083m. Note 5 in the Q1 report (p.9) shows that this is just the sum of cash, bonds, commons stocks and the carrying value of investments in associates (primarily the airport), $1426m, with a fair value of $2538. But does anyone know how they come up with that carrying value? Note 2 on p.47 of the Q2 report suggests that this is just equity ("The adjusted carrying value of each subsidiary represents its total equity as included in the company's interim consolidated financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2024, less the subsidiary's non-controlling interests as included in note 12 (Total Equity) to those interim consolidated financial statements."), but FIH's equity is much higher than the share price, so I don't understand how they are calculating the carrying value of FIH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 on sale again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giulio Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 https://www.ft.com/content/398fde10-6e63-4b01-b834-1897d6265dcd?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content Interesting article, it gives some context on FIH decision to sell their NSE stake. Prem mentioned the spike in options trading at the agm. I still wish they kept it though, same thesis as their IIFL companies' one but a better industry... G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMM20 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Tidefall LP - Q1 2024 Letter.pdf Our guy @hardcorevalue did a nice job highlighting the opportunity here in his Q1 letter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705673-fairfax-bial-is-worth-substantially-more-than-the-current-recorded-value Quote An eventual IPO, which they recommitted to at the AGM, will see the true value flow through to shareholders and I'm very confident that BIAL is worth substantially more than the current recorded value. During the pandemic, the slower growing Sydney airport which had 38 million passengers in 2023, nearly the same as BIAL's 37 million passengers, sold for $17bn (49x 2019 pre-covid earnings), seven times BIAL's private valuation. BIAL has far better prospects given its passenger capacity should reach 90 million in less than 10 years. Fairfax India remains a fantastic value proposition for capturing the rise of India which is expected to become the world's third largest economy by 2027. With a market capitalization of $2bn for Fairfax India and a valuation of $1.5bn for all of their non-airport net assets, investors are paying approximately half a billion for their 64% ownership in BIAL, an investment that we believe is likely worth multiples of that amount. The real question is when this IPO will happen and that might help close the gap based on the value...This stock requires patience ..I been adding this year under $14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 1 hour ago, Junior R said: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705673-fairfax-bial-is-worth-substantially-more-than-the-current-recorded-value The real question is when this IPO will happen and that might help close the gap based on the value...This stock requires patience ..I been adding this year under $14 Presumably when the Anchorage IPO happens, the BV of FIH will increase substantially. I think the real question is at what discount will the marginal investor give up it shares. Currently at a ~30% discount there are sellers every day but I’m convinced they make their decision based on price as opposed to the level of the discount so the discount might widen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 3 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Presumably when the Anchorage IPO happens, the BV of FIH will increase substantially. I think the real question is at what discount will the marginal investor give up it shares. Currently at a ~30% discount there are sellers every day but I’m convinced they make their decision based on price as opposed to the level of the discount so the discount might widen. Fingers crossed. Would love an opportunity for Fairfax to use newfound liquidity to take out another slug of shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICUMD Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 (edited) Valuation is a funny thing. Canadian Mattress co. = 1.7 Billion CDN 64% of Third largest Indian airport= 500M USD Worth waiting on Fairfax India. $14 /share is quite laughable. Guaranteed, they'll double ridership from 37M to 70M in 3 yrs. T3 will be the final major aero capacity they will build by 2030, before reaching saturation. Then all subsequent infra investment will provide solely non aero revenue. Should be a cash generating machine. Not to mention their shot at a control position in IDBI within the year. Edited July 24 by ICUMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 8 hours ago, ICUMD said: Not to mention their shot at a control position in IDBI within the year. Rumours are circulating that the decision on the final bidders is getting close. Big jump in IDBI’s share price yesterday. “New Delhi: Authorities are at an "advanced stage" of wrapping up the process to identify "fit and proper" buyers for a majority stake in IDBI Bank and the strategic sale of the state-run lender is expected to be concluded this fiscal, Tuhin Kanta Pandey, secretary, Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM), said on Tuesday.” https://m.economictimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/in-final-stage-of-identifying-idbi-bidders-tuhin-kanta-pandey/amp_articleshow/111996803.cms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 (edited) Bengaluru airport records over 1 crore flyers in first quarter of this year's fiscal Airports across India have seen 99.54 million passengers thereby recording a cumulative 7.1% growth this quarter over the corresponding period in 2023-2024. Edited July 26 by Junior R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dartmonkey Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 I'm a novice India investor, I still have to look up what a crore is (it's 10 million; 100 thousand is a lakh, 100 lakhs is a crore.) It's not clear to me why they talk about Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) getting to a crore and all Indian airports getting to 99.54 millions, which they could also have called 9.954 crore, but since 1 lakh is 10 million, it looks like Bengalaru accounts for over 10% of all Indian air traffic now. 7.1% growth year over year for all Indian traffic, and 7.2% growth at Bengalaru, so they are in line with national growth rates, which is good news I suppose. They also note that 89.3 lakh of the 100 lakh passengers were domestic, up 5.5%, and 13.4 lakh were the more profitable foreign travellers. They say that the percentage increase for foreign travellers at KIA was up by 20.3%, but unless I'm making a stupid mistake, that doesn't compute with their overall traffic increase of 7.2% ; I get foreign traffic up 38.9%, which would be even better news. Both numbers would be good, I guess we will see which one is right when KIA puts out a press release about their Q2 numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodlum Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette Quote After months of delay, the divestment of IDBI Bank may advance to the next stage, with highly placed sources indicating that the Reserve Bank of India has granted the necessary approval. The sources indicated that Fairfax India Holdings, one of the three bidders for IDBI Bank, has likely passed RBI’s rigorous ‘fit and proper’ test, advancing to the next stage. The fate of the other two bidders, cited in media reports, is unclear. Fairfax is led by Indian-born Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa. According to the media reports, Fairfax India Holdings, NBD Emirates and Kotak Mahindra Bank are said to have shown interest in buying a majority stake in IDBI Bank. Some of the people cited above said Kotak Bank is no longer in the race, but this could not be independently confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICUMD Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 13 hours ago, Hoodlum said: It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette A successful bid for IDBI should hopefully act as a catalyst for positive share price re-evaluation. Will be interesting to see how they structure this large acquisition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haryana Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/press-releases/fairfax-india-holdings-corporation-second-quarter-financial-results-08-01-2024/ "At June 30, 2024 the company’s book value per share was $21.52 compared to $19.65 at March 31, 2024 ($21.85 at December 31, 2023), an increase of 9.5%, principally from the recovery of IIFL Finance’s share price during the second quarter of 2024." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madpawn Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 With FIH selling at 35% discount to BV, I’m surprised to not see more excitement on this forum. Am I being over optimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardcorevalue Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 The better part of a decade with a discount will do that to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Yup. I'm excited. I add every once in awhile. But it first traded at this price in 2017.... Book value keeps growing, they keep repurchasing, and I'm satisfied - but not going all in on the discount to NAV that may, or may not, close in the next 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 On 7/31/2024 at 9:05 AM, Hoodlum said: It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette How would Fairfax India even fund this purchase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 8 hours ago, Junior R said: How would Fairfax India even fund this purchase? Partners like FFH and other large asset managers like pensions and Blackrock types. Hopefully while earning a fee for the privilege. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICUMD Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 23 hours ago, Junior R said: How would Fairfax India even fund this purchase? Anchorage. What the may opt to do is use Anchorage as the vehicle to purchase IDBI. If I understand correctly, BIAL is already under Anchorage and a portion of Anchorage has been sold to Omers. They could procure additional private capital through Anchorage to purchase IDBI. After which, they would seek a public listing on the Indian exchange. This would explain the delay in getting the Anchorage publicly listed. They are busy elephant hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 32 minutes ago, ICUMD said: Anchorage. What the may opt to do is use Anchorage as the vehicle to purchase IDBI. If I understand correctly, BIAL is already under Anchorage and a portion of Anchorage has been sold to Omers. They could procure additional private capital through Anchorage to purchase IDBI. After which, they would seek a public listing on the Indian exchange. This would explain the delay in getting the Anchorage publicly listed. They are busy elephant hunting. I may remember wrong, but I think Anchorage was said to be for “industrial” assets. not sure IDBI would go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haryana Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 7 minutes ago, Xerxes said: I may remember wrong, but I think Anchorage was said to be for “industrial” assets. not sure IDBI would go there. Not sure either but in terms of “industrial” IDBI is acronym for Industrial Development Bank of India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Anchorage is for infrastructure assets like airports and train stations and the like. IDBI will be merged with CSB bank (with IDBI being the surviving brand) if Fairfax is the winning bidder. Plenty of creative structures available to fund the deal with partners. Looking forward to hearing the details! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haryana Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 25 minutes ago, gfp said: Anchorage is for infrastructure assets like airports and train stations and the like. IDBI will be merged with CSB bank (with IDBI being the surviving brand) if Fairfax is the winning bidder. Plenty of creative structures available to fund the deal with partners. Looking forward to hearing the details! Right, this is actually their advantage over the rival bid by Kotak Mahindra. They can easily let go of CSB name but Kotak cannot because they are already a major national iconic brand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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