hardcorevalue

ha yes that was me! thanks! Weird seeing my name in the transcript as I go through it now

I recorded the audio and will post it with the slides this week on our substack and in this thread it’s about 12 minutes long https://tidefall.substack.com

I still don’t get how a stock going down a little bit in a week is an indication of a bunch of short sellers?

The stock has negative returns for almost a decade and at a time when the Indian markets have been the hottest in the world. At this stage Fairfax India is a bit of a nuisance to the renaissance at Fairfax Financial and with FFH's improving balance sheet it just becomes easier to take out FIH.u shareholders at a premium to book value and acquire the crown jewel BIAL holding rather than keep this public. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they changed the AGM to the day before the Fairfax Financial one. Who wants to end their week with a bunch of disgruntled shareholders' at this tiny vehicle when there is so much to celebrate at the far more significant parent! I keep a position because I believe in Fairfax’s investment skills in India and trust their stewardship. I’m not optimistic that the discount will ever close in its current form. However, I think there is value and the Anchorage IPO will surface this or Fairfax will take this private at book value at some point (an outcome I am ok with even though I think book value is understated).

Fairfax India would be ripping on this but Digit is held at Fairfax Financial!

I just don’t see a material long term benefit to a stock split. Prem is all about building long term shareholders and if somebody gets excited by a share costing less nominally then they are probably in it for the wrong reasons.

A local burger joint is charging like $18-20 for a meal in Toronto in USD equivalent and then want you to tip 20% minimum. Don’t know if I’m getting old and cranky but it feels like the government and central banks are bleeding people of their wealth trying to avoid a recession.

Howard Marks is a marketer and (one of the best out there)

Of course, this is done just before earnings so the company is in a quiet period

Wow this is really weak, even in his bear case (which rests on IFRS 17 mandated change and Digit) he’s calling for an 18% hit to book value. The reason FFH has been crushing it and why it’s cheap is the unbelievable amount of cash it’s making (primarily from bonds and strong underwriting). I like MW but this will age terribly.

"Shares of Athens International Airport SA jumped 15% at the start of trading on the Athens Stock Exchange, in the country’s biggest initial public offering in more than two decades. The stock began trading at €9.40 a share, compared with the IPO price of €8.20, the high end of the initial range."

haha I did totally copy you. but still screwed up the tweet so I look stupid anyways!

well locking in the duration is locking in a big part of the market cap in terms of earnings so it’s still really cheap regardless of if we get back to 2%. Also, call me crazy but I still believe in higher for longer, 7% US deficits aren’t sustainable, especially with the obligations the US has.

agreed on treating shareholders right would cost ffh peanuts at this stage. at this stage, it’s just more of an embarrassment for the team, especially in light of how fairfax africa was total disaster.

Thanks Raj, how do you think the alleged modi government killing a canadian citizen will shake out? I don’t know enough on Nijjar but if true, then it’s pretty crazy that a country like Canada would be so cool with a foreign government murdering one of its own. Obviously, Trudea tried to get ahead of the story but when/if the evidence finally comes out, does Canada just pretend it didn’t happen? or will there be a back channel solution?

do we have another Xi on our hands? Obviously not there yet but things are drifting in the wrong direction in terms of personal freedoms and democracy. Prem praising Modi at every turn but this guy is acting like a nationalist and increasingly authoritarian. "At least 46 people were questioned during the raids and their devices, including laptops and cellphones, and documents were taken away for examination. India’s anti-terrorism law has stringent requirements for bail, which mean individuals often spend months, sometimes years, in custody without being found guilty. Successive Indian governments have invoked the law, but it has been used with increasing frequency in recent years. Reporters Without Borders, an advocacy group for journalists, ranked India 161st in its press freedom rankings this year, writing that the situation has deteriorated from “problematic” to “very bad.”" https://apnews.com/article/india-press-freedom-newsclick-arrest-raid-3faa0830e9f3bcd4e75f1b7df404f432

In the long run if debt is deflationary (japan would be a great example) why do we have all the previous cases like Germany and South America/asia where inflation exploded after the countries took on too much debt?

I think at this stage with Fairfax finally going so well that India’s single digit book value growth and 35% discount (at a time when India is all the rage) is just a bit of an embarrassment. I figured it’s so small they might just take out shareholders at book. But yes it’s in their financial incentive to just keep scraping fees and the capital wouldn’t be treated as well by regulators, so I doubt much will change. I also don’t get why they kept talking about an upcoming IPO even though it was years away. If the BIAL valuation is real they should be selling down stocks and aggressively buying back shares. Sure they have done buybacks but just keep going at it with SIBs. This was supposed to be a vehicle that could raise but after this long at a huge discount it seems like they should just be more fair with their non fee collecting shareholders. Sorry just venting.

no change in the stock price over 8 years. -30% since 2017. I get the discount has gone down but wow this has been pretty terrible returns for shareholders. not sure that the anchorage ipo (which never comes) will close the discount kind of frustrating supporting fairfax on this one.

it was $US

Nobody knows where a stock will be 12 months. I don’t think that’s how Viking is looking at it.

even though it's losing relevance does anyone care to guess what p/b $BRK.b is trading at today?

if it’s anything less than NAV you will see a riot on this forum

Would a registered LIF account avoid the deemed dividend?

Happy Birthday Sanjeev 8)