As someone on the other end of the spectrum (age wise), I’m certainly hoping that Fairfax and my other investments stay flat over the next years if not decade or two so I can keep accumulating shares at a reasonable price, assuming the underlying business continues to perform.
That said, if I knew time is against me and I’ve got a short runway left (for lack of better words), holding any type of stocks would be inherently risky no? It doesn’t matter if it’s Fairfax, Berkshire, the S&P; no one’s going to accurately predict the behaviour of these equities within a given time frame. Whilst you’re not interested in holding for a flat run over 7 years, I’m certain you’d be interested in holding it for a bull market of 6 years and sell right before the next drop down.
Perhaps I’m oversimplifying it, but wouldn’t it be simply a matter of risk allocation where given the timeframe, you’re better off with a larger weight in fixed income investments?