Spekulatius

The Shah grandson would be a poor choice. The Shah deserves a lot of blame for the Islamic revolution succeeding in the first place. There have to be people with more legitimacy.

Has any regime fallen though. Killing the leader does not kill the regime. The Venezuela regime is still there. So far, the Iran regime is still there as well. The new Khomenei is already groomed, if you know how Iran works (they do have a succession system j and in any case, it’s not the spiritual leader running the country. The protest that many predicted would cause the regime to fall, were suppressed so far. Regime change requires either total control via occupation or change from within, which is hard to predict.

How do you envision this to happen? LLM can’t do accounting, since they not deterministic, so the application layer will persist. LLM’s can assist users and there is a lot of value that can created by making data easier to extract.

I assure you, with your wiry frame you look better than 80% of the peers in your age, all your health issues no withstanding.I hope we can find another opportunity to meet up.

I looked at his report and what do you think is so great about it?. All these independent ad resellers or platforms seem to be struggling.

Khameni is just the spiritual leader, he is not running Iran- the Republican guards are. Removing him does not change the regime or win the war. The strike on Iran was well advertised with fleet presence and here we are. The golden armada world police is in action again. If this regimes goes, it will be a very good thing for almost everyone, the concern is obviously that this could become a long entanglement.

It seems that a lot of virus infections are linked to cancer risk many years later . HPV being one example. The current vaccination backslash will probably have consequences down the road in that regard.

This guy is hilarious. he should have his own show:

Health and gohealth got already destroyed and it wasnt’t because of AI.. They operate in highly standardized markets and were relying heavily on online marketing for customer acquisitions.

DOD is now toxic to do business with as they deemed Anthropic to be “supply chain risk”. “Supply chain risk” means black listed like Chinese co. that means to federal agency or even contractor working for a federal agency can use them. It’s the nuclear option. Now the problem is - who wants to do business with the DOD? https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5759630-pentagon-designates-anthropic-risk/

Sold remainder of HII. That one worked really well. It’s not a great business either.

It’s not likely related to AI. Block was a bloated company and they got into a bunch of money losing sideline like making bitcoin mining rigs. The fired people there will find jobs elsewhere. I think WDAY is another business that is run with bloated employee count a d probably should do a 20 cut. This would be very bullish for the stock price.

A good deal why Epstein got away was because he lived on Florida and did get of easy there (Acosta etc): https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/12/politics/department-of-justice-alex-acosta-epstein Pam Bondi was Florida’s attorney general from 2011-2019. There is a reason why white collar criminals like Florida.

I think some of the sceptic claim that LLM have a ceiling in term of how good they can be and it may not be much higher than what we currently have at hand. The reason is that LLM’s are basically just guessing machines based on context once they ingested all the publicly available data, and squeeze juice out of the algos, they are pretty much done improving. Adding 10x of the computing will probably not improve results much which means that all those folks that invested in this infrastructure are pretty much screwed. Now, it may not be quite that bad, as you can have running the LLM trained on non public proprietary data (owned by corporation ) who create their own models and apps, based on practical use cases. For this, you don’t need extremely advanced models but it may take time to get the date cleaned enough to be able to train and then apply this to practical use cases in many domains. I

They outsourced managing their investment portfolio to a Blackstone entity (BIS) and somehow the founding father of the Financial services empire (Foley) has his finger into this too for fees. Seems like a dangerous setup , as this increases blowup risk, imo.

I added some more RYAN. I think this guy (and the people he put in place) are the real deal and will do well over time even though I don’t like the structure (tax /LLC). The last quarter however was not good and rightfully caused some of the decline ins hare price.

The problem with private equity and credit is that it long in the tooth in terms of cycle. I think they may have accumulated a lot of junk in Theo asset base and the software is just the latest flavor to jour as @gfp states. They also had sudden sudden writedowns (19% for a credit portfolio for a. DC) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-private-credit-write-down-200929197.html I also think that dumping this stuff into private retirement accounts is probably not going to happen at scale due to all those negative headlines that start to grab attention. So I think we will see some dispersion between the good managers and some also rans. My guess that BX and KKR will be fine.

More RYAN and WDAY (AH).

This could best interesting : https://apnews.com/article/anthropic-hegseth-ai-pentagon-military-3d86c9296fe953ec0591fcde6a613aba Restriction of use are pretty common. Had our legal guy sign some for some hardware from Japan that was part of a piece of equipment we purchase.

The under wiring ratio includes Sg&A and customer acquisitions / commission costs, so you could see costs getting squeezed out there. I don’t think AI is necessary, this needs to be thoroughly digitized first. LSO standardization where applicable could do wonders.

At this point, people just make shyte up. One thing is for sure, AI is the biggest capital cycle of the last 50 years. If it’s really life changing remains TBD.

And it’s the same guy who remote worked from…, “Las Vegas” https://www.yahoo.com/news/kash-patel-wants-home-fbi-173857046.html And visits his Gf with a private jet: https://people.com/kash-patel-takes-60m-fbi-jet-to-see-girlfriend-2-years-after-slamming-predecessor-for-using-government-plane-11842772

This is true for everyone, not just SaaS though. What if semiconductor chips are leapfrogged? Some of the same people these claims have to problems paying up for memory business that for sure a re commodity like and where prices have trippled the last 6 month, but have a long long history of being on a deflationary trajectory. Or look at CAT trading at 5 x revenue because they sell some generators to AI datacenters as a filler for more durable solutions. I don’t think the bubble is in software it is elsewhere.

Written in September 2024 - timing is hard. I think Citrini has gone negative on the payment business too, due to AI.

Going there in a private jet on taxpayers dime while on the job.