Spekulatius

Interesting- Warren’s talks about LAACZ on this annual meeting. He discussed it with Munger when they first met ( amongst many other quirky stocks): Amazing too that he remembers the details of this conversation after more than 50 years or so.

It is a bigger problem at 2x book versus 1x book.

He is already in the grave. Can’t dance any more. Maybe he can turn around in his coffin.

I personally think after looking at all of the them that BRO and AJG are the best picks here. I only have a small position in BRO bought a bit more than a year ago and it’s as close to a neversell than you can get.

The tool market volatility is extremely low (VIX is at 13.5 and had been low for a while) , but the volatility in individual names can be very high as earnings misses get punished harshly and earnings beats rewarded handsomely. I think the latter may be a result of option activity.

VSTS was a margin improvement and debt paydown story from the spin. Now it looks again like the spinoff was oversold and my guess is that they may have to sacrifice some margin to keep the topline from falling. The CC brought new information to light that they have customer retention issues which to me sounds like a combination of service issues and pricing. This was not dixlosed before. They need to work this out to prevent the topline from imploding (which is the real risk here). At least, I am not paying a fancy multiple here and if the story works out LT, then I still think we could see a multibagger here. I think @Dinar owns the stock too and may have further insight.

Bought some VSTS yesterday and today. just another spinoff that runs into trouble, but uniform rental fundamentally a good business, so I think this should be fixable. High leverage (from spin) is a concern.

What do you think happened when you dodged draft during the Vietnam war or even Germany during the Cold War?

Yes every significant merger is going to get sued by the FTC and COF and DFS will have a high combined market share in credit cards. It is going to be tough to get this merger to close, imo.

LHX has very straightforward management incentives. They have been bulking up with acquisitions to become a prime contractor, but it has stretched their balance sheet somewhat. I think GD is probably the best run of the primes. LMT has a great balance sheet so they could flex when growth prospects are limited because some much is dependent on the F35 program which is not a priority in the current defense budget.

Sold most of my DFS yesterday. I think the merger with COF will be blocked and I expect DFS to fall from current levels (~$130 sales price).

Forward multiples. Nobody drives just looking in the rear view mirror.

Myanmar is an interesting situation because it looks like the Junta running the country may lose the Guerilla war and get toppled. Could happen quicker then many people think. China is also vying for influence there, of course. Hopefully our folks from the state department are also paying attention.

Yes, the defense budget is already old news. The defense stocks are very dependable slow growers typically so while the business model is like an industrial , they are almost like annuities or consumer staples in a sense. You get extra browny points owning them if there is geopolitical strife and local wars. I keep holding RTX mostly and sold out of LHX in my IRA accounts (for a profit). One thing to keep in mind instant the Ukraine war has not been as good as you might think for defense stocks, as some focus has shifted from F35 to other more pressing issues, which has hurt LMT for example.

Picked up some CNHI shares this AM on the dunk related to the CEO change.

Pretty good and short assessment of the situation from Sarah Paine : She is correct (imo) that dictators tend to tell anyone who will listen what they are going to do, before they do it. She very well explains the difference between maritime and continental order and how cooperation creates wealth via win win versus expansion and win-lose.

I agree the optics matter. Making $10 or $20M isn’t worth the headache for Berkshire. Think about this, if this becomes a political issue, it could mean that WEB get dragged in a Congress hearing to testify. Probably not worth it for him.

Well said. Germany never thrived because of trade with a Russia. The NG dependency from Russia was a self inflicted wound that could have been voided by Merkel. It wasn’t necessary to drive the German industry.

These 3x ETF’s get killed by volatility if the underlying index goes nowhere and the index just seesaws. It’s going to essentially buy high and sell low all the time due to the inherent 3x leverage.

I booked a vacation during Gulf War I. It was very cheap. So, if you are cheap, you could get better airfare prices if this escalates. In any case, the Gaza Strip is not in Europe, so it’s not going to affect European travel directly. Flights to Israel, or travel from Europe to India or Gulf States is a different story.

I love old annual reports. The writing was so much clearer and you could get a grip what the company you owned was doing and where they tried to go. Her is Lockheed 1958 and Getty Oil 1956 annual reports (the oldest I could find). Some of t(r airplanes introduced in lockheeds 1958 annual report are still flying. getty oil 1956.pdf Lockheed 1958ß.pdf

I love this song, but the choreography is out of this world:

After watching “ Boy Swallows Universe” this:

Xi came into power in 2013 but it did only became gradually obvious that Chinese way of checks and balances within the party (via committees and fractions and term limits ) are replaced with one man Neo Maoist rule. The Frog is slowly getting boiled, I guess. I have a few shares of BABA which I intend to hold, but I have a hard time seeing me making a large investment in Chinese equities until something changes for the better.