Spekulatius

$NNI and $APA.

Bought a starter in APA, mostly because I think the value of their exploration assets in Suriname are not reflected fully in the valuation. Suriname is adjacent to Guyana and APA has a stake in two blocks 53 and foremost 58 where the latter is operated by Total (APA owns 50%) and has shown several gushers: https://geoexpro.com/the-suriname-guyana-basin/ https://investor.apacorp.com/static-files/cb0eb758-205d-406c-8af0-9f781d1a245c this will take some time to play out (years) but i think at some point continued exploration progress and development will start to get reflected more in the share price. Even discounting Suriname, APA looks quite cheap based on metrics

I have watched some of "China observer" clips on youtube and it is very biased and sensationalistic and I say this as someone who is very suspect of China CCP and their economic future.

My wife just showed me who the boss is - bought DVA at $78 an sold at $106.5 a few weeks later. She also bottom ticked $FMS a while ago and $BAX more recently. She just trades around dialysis stocks.

Looks like Fuso' Chemicals main business is Food additives and then the smaller business is Colloidal / nanocystalline Silica for polishing wafers. https://fusokk.co.jp/eng/wp/wp-content/themes/fuso/images/ir/financialresults_en_231124.pdf FWIW, looks like their profit margins for the semi business is roughly 33% and actually topped out at 45% profit margins last year which really isn't that shabby.

The article is a bit misleading. While they raised some debt (no doubt at very favorable terms), they still have more cash than debt on the balance sheet. They also generate 25% operating margins which is not too shabby. Recently, the Bloomberg stories appear to get more and more distorted and resemble clickbait. When you look at FUSO chemicals financials it’s just does not seem to show the same picture than the article.

Just realized that Everything Everywhere all at once is available on Prime Video now. What a great movie and it fits the season: https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/amzn1.dv.gti.9d433401-4b4f-4737-9ec7-ce92e6b313f2?autoplay=0&ref_=atv_cf_strg_wb

The 4th season was weaker imo, but S5 again is hilariously great.

@nwoodman Amyl and the sniffers are pretty good. Their records sound a bit flat though (not unusual for punk rock) and I think live the energy comes across much better.

Jinxed it.

Trying again and bought a starter in CUERVO in two accounts to add to my Booze portfolio. The way I see it, it’s cheaper than it was in 2018 since revenues have grown by ~60% in USD. That said, I don’t like management here and I don’t think they have done a great job so far since the IPO but margins should improve due to Blue Agave cost coming down eventually. There is also a recent ill timed VIC writeup on this stock.

Yes, when you watched the documentaries about him- especially the last one “ Crock of Gold” you really wonder how he kept going as long as he did. Time to rewatch “Crock of Gold” in Hulu.

Fargo S5 is bloody good:

Looks like they had a bloody good time... https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fcnninternational%2Fposts%2Fpfbid02H3jTcDCwruZEzEnkZVZ9ioEL5i7J1DJihYgVEzS98C9Hdbw6veivYNcsmpyGC7KRl&show_text=true&width=500"

Why would they stop this. Guyana is poor and going to a massive boom already, all fueled by energy investments. Suriname is in the same situation and looks like the O&G cos have been reasonable terms. This oil is going to flow as well. Venezuela has plenty off resources and cant even manage those - so the more difficult offshore fields will remain unexploited if they exist. But the rest is a go.

I think this offshore trend extends all the way from Venezuela to Brazil. $APA / Total already have several gushers in Suriname next to Guyana. PBR intends to drill in Brazillian offshore waters there. This will probably be a monster exploration area similar to shale in the USA. Opec better watch out or try to get this countries into their fold but in a way it wont matter, because for these countries, drilling for these resources is a no brainer.

Let me guess - the liver went first: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/30/entertainment/shane-macgowan-death-scli-intl

Small add to $CPNG for $15 and change.

@RedLion I don't know where you live but when i lived in Santa Rosa, I loved making trips around Alexander valley (Dry Creek road) and try the vineyards that are chained around that Road. One of the largest is Alexander Valley vineyard which has a tasting room and a complete range from $20-$60 priced wines which are a good value, imo. I also liked the Russian River valley for similar reasons. Got a friend working the Porter Creek vineyard tasting room which is more boutique and according to her, the wines are very very good, but also pricier.

Seems expensive for $90/ bottle but even more egregious is selling $65 Bottles with "California" appellation. "California" means the grapes are coming from Central Valley - Ouch. I can buy good bottles of Cabernet for <$20 with Grapes from Sonoma county. You can't make great wine with crappy grapes (at least that's what my dad told me who was a winemaker).

ultimately the value of the sports teams depends on the revenues they can pull in, which is mostly from media/TV income. Even billionaires don't like losing money on an trophy assets even if it comes with an ego booster. So far media revenue has been rising quickly even though expenses matched the rise in income but I think eventually that revenue increases will subside since the ecosystem with streamers and cable isn't exactly healthy.

Every epidemic becomes endemic or the host dies out, so that was never in question. What was questionable is what happens until the epidemic becomes endemic.

Biggest risk is that the tax code changes and the intangibles paid for the team cannot be written off any more. If this happens, team values immediately would take a huge hit.

Imagine being worth $8.8B and then coming up with this low life scheme to squeeze out the last few hundred million $ from the remaining 20% of the business they agreed to sell already. WEB misjudged the character of the sellers here.

I don't think they have $330M in FCF. They have gotten a loan to pay for these. BRP has roughly ~$1.3B in debt and expect to pay $120M in interest next year. Their "FCF" does not include the cash earnout payments, so I think the absolute amount of debt will increase slightly. They may show lower leverage if their EBITDA continues to increase.