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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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About a week ago I sold a whole bunch of stuff, essentially as bridge financing on a home purchase. So now I am sitting at around 45% cash at least for the next month. This is the second time I have sold a significant portion of equity investments to fund real estate purchases, before what seems to be a market pullback.

 

I will have to update my forum signature and update the board when I plan on any future RE purchases :)

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About a week ago I sold a whole bunch of stuff, essentially as bridge financing on a home purchase. So now I am sitting at around 45% cash at least for the next month. This is the second time I have sold a significant portion of equity investments to fund real estate purchases, before what seems to be a market pullback.

 

I will have to update my forum signature and update the board when I plan on any future RE purchases :)

 

All the times I sold stock to buy real estate, it turned out that I was considerably better off holding on to those stocks... sigh  :-\

 

 

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LEVI (AH) and HII.

 

HII was a starter position and the defense play I had the least confidence in.

 

It's great move, Speculatius,

 

Because HII is not a business, it's a scheme [with a ticker, though] to suck up funds from the US military budget to keep people meaningless employed.

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LEVI (AH) and HII.

 

HII was a starter position and the defense play I had the least confidence in.

 

It's great move, Speculatius,

 

Because HII is not a business, it's a scheme [with a ticker, though] to suck up funds from the US military budget to keep people meaningless employed.

 

Well, I am not sure I fully agree. Should the US just outsource building these ships to Korean shipbuilders for example? it sure would be cheaper, but I don’t think it would ever happen. There is some issue with IP too, but I don’t think there is much IP in the hulls and that is actually my concern with HII in the long run.

 

Longer term, military power is going to be driven by technology much more so than by the number of boots on the ground. that’s why I believe the likes of LMT, NOC and LHX are better bets than HII.

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LEVI (AH) and HII.

 

HII was a starter position and the defense play I had the least confidence in.

 

It's great move, Speculatius,

 

Because HII is not a business, it's a scheme [with a ticker, though] to suck up funds from the US military budget to keep people meaningless employed.

 

Well, I am not sure I fully agree. Should the US just outsource building these ships to Korean shipbuilders for example? it sure would be cheaper, but I don’t think it would ever happen. There is some issue with IP too, but I don’t think there is much IP in the hulls and that is actually my concern with HII in the long run.

 

Longer term, military power is going to be driven by technology much more so than by the number of boots on the ground. that’s why I believe the likes of LMT, NOC and LHX are better bets than HII.

 

I wasn't sure what the prior cryptic comment was getting at.  But I agree with you that the biggest risk here is that advances in anti-ship cruise and anti-ship ballistic missiles (aided by satellite guidance) render large surface ships like aircraft carriers obsolete in combat against other advanced militaries.  There are already commentators who believe that even in the open ocean US carrier battle groups would not survive the initial stages of a serious conflict with China or Russia. 

 

As you note, the construction of aircraft carriers won't be outsourced to non-US shipyards, nor will a competing US shipyard be built.  Rather, the threat to HII is that in 10 years aircraft carriers and other large surface ships won't be built at all.  That being said, if you look at the free cash flow HII is likely to generate from the current order book over the next 5-10 years, what terminal value is actually being assigned to the business?

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EQR, FTS, CU, FFH, FIH, SU

 

Happy to lock in small gains (4.5 to 10%).

 

FIH was break even; do like the opportunity long term. Learned it is not a good fit for what i want in my portfolio right now.

Sold 25% of SU (recently doubled position size).

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EMGC

 

they filed for bankruptcy for the 2nd time in 2 years.

 

it appears to be a pre-pack and the equity likely still has value, but filing for BK w/o a press release or description of who gets what is enough to see me out.

 

I am the patsy at the poker table; there could still be significant value; this is more of a liquidity rather than solvency thing. 

 

I realized a loss of 20%-50% on various lots of the small position that nevertheless stings.

 

the stock is only down 17% today, but the intraday range is big. I thought selling down 30% or 40% was rational for a bankruptcy filing and chose not to wait for more information. this could prove costly.

 

EDIT: Commentary on VIC more or less confirms I am the patsy and that the company should be okay

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EMGC

 

they filed for bankruptcy for the 2nd time in 2 years.

 

it appears to be a pre-pack and the equity likely still has value, but filing for BK w/o a press release or description of who gets what is enough to see me out.

 

I am the patsy at the poker table; there could still be significant value; this is more of a liquidity rather than solvency thing. 

 

I realized a loss of 20%-50% on various lots of the small position that nevertheless stings.

 

the stock is only down 17% today, but the intraday range is big. I thought selling down 30% or 40% was rational for a bankruptcy filing and chose not to wait for more information. this could prove costly.

 

EDIT: Commentary on VIC more or less confirms I am the patsy and that the company should be okay

 

love the sequence here:

 

1. File for Bankruptcy

2. Then release the RSA (during market/work hours)

3. then release good quarterly results that show the thing still has value.

 

I hold myself accountable for reacting poorly and selling a stock down 30-40% when it ended up down 10%, but couldn't they have released an explanatory press release first? Is that too much to ask. Again, I'm the patsy. I'm the idiot who owned an already bankrupt Boca Raton based life settlements company. But c'mon.

 

also I love how the bankruptcy is a "subsequent event"

 

Subsequent Event

 

On October 15, 2020, Emergent and its wholly-owned subsidiary Red Reef Alternative Investment, LLC filed voluntary petitions for relief under chapter 11 of title 11 of the United States Code in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. More information was disclosed by the Company in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on October 15, 2020.

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