brobro777 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Scuttle Blurb had an analysis of ADSK years ago that I thought was decent: https://www.scuttleblurb.com/category/adsk-autodesk/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) Added to my BTI and BABA position. Edited April 19 by ourkid8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 ADM, BTI and MSB Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Trimmed some SWBI and added to NTDOY and BTI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malmqky Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Haven’t done anything in months now, getting bored. So to scratch that itch, bought a little more Hershey, little Nintendo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) Canfor (CFP.TO) at C$14.35. Time to scratch my (monthly?) lumber itch. Market cap is $1.7 billion. Net debt is a positive $300 million (net cash position). So enterprise value is about $1.4 billion. They also have +$900 million of duties on deposit. This is worth something. The stock is selling off aggressively because interest/mortgage rates have moved higher. Edited April 19 by Viking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 3% position in Hershey. Anchored to a price now and would buy more if it dropped. HSY + DPZ + NVO = $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 (edited) I'll build a 3x KWEB ETF position on monday with a planned allocation of 3-5% of my PF. If we hit 2021 Valuations again in the next 5 years its gonna be close to a 10-bagger. Valuation in China are nuts and company quality is at least as high in the US, KWEB is cheap: Edited April 20 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Luca said: I'll build a 3x KWEB ETF position on monday with a planned allocation of 3-5% of my PF. If we hit 2021 Valuations again in the next 5 years its gonna be close to a 10-bagger. Valuation in China are nuts and company quality is at least as high in the US, KWEB is cheap: Btw, these slides are a bit older. Tencent got cheaper, PDD grew a lot and is now at 10-15x earnings. JD.com buying back, Net-ease, Baba, Meituan... Edited April 20 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 And they all have very large cash positions on their balance sheet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 I hope I am not catching the falling knife china and we end up 50% lower next year due to the crisis getting even worse...still I can not resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 (edited) These 3x ETF’s get killed by volatility if the underlying index goes nowhere and the index just seesaws. It’s going to essentially buy high and sell low all the time due to the inherent 3x leverage. Edited April 20 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: These 3x ETF’s get killed by volatility if the underlying index goes nowhere and the index just seesaws. It’s going to essentially buy high and sell low all the time due to the inherent 3x leverage. Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. Edited April 20 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 1 minute ago, Luca said: Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to. 3x funds rebalance on a daily basis. So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index. A simple example: Buy at 100 Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115. Day 2: index goes back to 100. This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%. 115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57. The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Just now, KJP said: That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to. 3x funds rebalance on a daily basis. So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index. A simple example: Buy at 100 Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115. Day 2: index goes back to 100. This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%. 115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57. The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Luca said: Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. if you buy it using margins , it will outperforms the 3x etfs. The 3x ETFs are a ripoff and a big profit source for banks trading it. You basically being front run because people know how much the index must buy at eod especially when there’s large movements . Edited April 20 by sleepydragon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Lion Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/20/2024 at 11:20 AM, KJP said: That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to. 3x funds rebalance on a daily basis. So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index. A simple example: Buy at 100 Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115. Day 2: index goes back to 100. This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%. 115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57. The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets. I experimented with a trade several years back where you went short on both long and short etf’s and then tried to keep them balanced to try to capture the time decay, don’t remember exactly what happened but I think I closed out with a small profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Starter in 3x KWEB ISIN:XS2399370043 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Solitron Devices Thomasville Bancshares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Picked up some CNHI shares this AM on the dunk related to the CEO change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 55 minutes ago, Luca said: Starter in 3x KWEB ISIN:XS2399370043 I’m sure you already know, but these 3x ETFs have horrible decay in their value when held for the long term. Be careful with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Sweet said: I’m sure you already know, but these 3x ETFs have horrible decay in their value when held for the long term. Be careful with these. Yeye, i like the setup here, didnt play around with this kind of product before and will gain some experience...no investment advice Edited April 22 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 small adds to BTI, NTDOY, FFXDF and ENVX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Adding to 3x KWEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Started with small positions today in : HUFV A.STO [Hufvudstaden AB, ser. A, Stockholm, Sweden], ENTRA.OS [ENTRA AS, Oslo, Norway], & WALL B.STO [Wallenstam AB, ser. B, Göteborg, Sweden]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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