What are you buying today?

[Williams406]

small adds to Altius and FRP Holdings

[Eng12345]

NTDOY

[Lance]

STR

 

Thanks

Lance

[thowed]

1 hour ago, Lance said:

STR

 

Thanks

Lance

 

I struggled with management (as a Brigham holder) & the raise is questionable?  I continue to prefer DMLP or BSM (the time to add to TPL seems to have passed).

 

But I get it's down today.

[Gregmal]

Added a good slug of Jan MGK 210 puts as an insurance policy on Wiley Coyote. 

[dipod]

T Bills expiring in 2 months. Have some other positions but good to have easily accessible dry powder in case something breaks.

[brobro777]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Added a good slug of Jan MGK 210 puts as an insurance policy on Wiley Coyote. 

 

Haha the Roadrunner cartoons were great 

 

I'll probably lose money on my QQQ put options but maybe I'll get lucky and big cap tech will crack 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

28 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

 

Haha the Roadrunner cartoons were great 

 

I'll probably lose money on my QQQ put options but maybe I'll get lucky and big cap tech will crack 

 

 

 

They’re hedges, the only problem with them losing money is if you aren’t making money. When they work I expect my broader portfolio to be declining, and when they work I structure them so they should pay out multiples of the capital I commit which allows me to then redeploy it at much lower levels. The $210s should 5x on a 20% correction.

[changegonnacome]

HSW

[brobro777]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

They’re hedges, the only problem with them losing money is if you aren’t making money. When they work I expect my broader portfolio to be declining, and when they work I structure them so they should pay out multiples of the capital I commit which allows me to then redeploy it at much lower levels. The $210s should 5x on a 20% correction.

 

Yea yea, just keep posting so I can continue to make money off your ideas

 

Just keep going bro

 

 

[Cod Liver Oil]

 I begged @Dinar to talk me off the ledge regarding Nintendo. The next day I found this in a used book I bought on Amazon:

I'm fine.

 

[changegonnacome]

HSW

[Luke]

55 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

 I begged @Dinar to talk me off the ledge regarding Nintendo. The next day I found this in a used book I bought on Amazon:

I'm fine.

 

Pretty bullish sign for all of us

[Whensthepaintdry?]

Added to BOC under 18. 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

Added to BOC under 18. 

How about $OUT if you like the billboard business. You get a big dividend check as well.

[Whensthepaintdry?]

38 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

How about $OUT if you like the billboard business. You get a big dividend check as well.

I’m not going to kid myself, I am a sucker for the story on this one. At the current price I’m willing to add. The dilution is worrisome, but if book value continues to go up I can live with it. 

[cubsfan]

^^ No body like the dilution, but it's pretty insignificant if you are building the right business.

The fiber subscriber growth looks pretty damn good - so I really do think they are building the right business. 

[Saluki]

Picked up some shares of NTDOY.  

[CorpRaider]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

How about $OUT if you like the billboard business. You get a big dividend check as well.

Is it ok?   I'm a full on Lamar bro over here.  I did a little work on OUT a few years ago.  I need to update that, if the price is right...and JCDecaux.  Reckon they will distress buy CCO at some point.

 

I'm going to buy some BOC if it gets down below trailing book again....but not for the billboard bidness (and way less than CMCSA and LAMR). 

 

What dilution you talking about, the carry?  I don't really mind the ATM issuance above book since there is zero chance I would pay a big premium to book.

Edited August 11, 2023 by CorpRaider

[Spekulatius]

I would buy BOC, but don’t like the hedge fund like incentive structure. ATM issues are OK at the right price (above NAV) and I think BOC financed themselves well.

 

OUT is a reversal to the mean play,  but quite frankly, I haven’t looked at it very deeply. I just noticed it when I poked a round LAMR.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Spekulatius

[ValueMaven]

Has anyone looked at the JNJ-KVUE swap?  It's an interesting one.

You buy 99 shares of JNJ and swap it into KVUE at a meaningful discount.  It's about a 17% return in 2 weeks time.  

If you buy 100 shares you want be guaranteed a full swap, and if you buy 99 shares and don't allocate the full 99 shares, then you will lose out as well.  KVUE also has sold off and seems cheap to me given its business and moat.  Hedge Funds cant do this (99 share issue) and most retail is unaware of the transaction.  

[Castanza]

7 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

Has anyone looked at the JNJ-KVUE swap?  It's an interesting one.

You buy 99 shares of JNJ and swap it into KVUE at a meaningful discount.  It's about a 17% return in 2 weeks time.  

If you buy 100 shares you want be guaranteed a full swap, and if you buy 99 shares and don't allocate the full 99 shares, then you will lose out as well.  KVUE also has sold off and seems cheap to me given its business and moat.  Hedge Funds cant do this (99 share issue) and most retail is unaware of the transaction.  

Interesting situation

 

Another one I stumbled upon courtesy of Andrew Walker is the RideQ situation with Foxconn. Shares trading around $3ish and they filed for bankruptcy. Interesting aspect is they have no debt and a lot of cash on hand. To top it off they are suing Foxconn for basically pulling the rug out from under their business and causing permanent damages. Will be interesting. The kicker is there is a 3% cap on share ownership so a lot of the big guys can’t touch this. According to Andrew there is a lot of cash per share that could give quite. A bit of upside pending the suit. Haven’t checked any of the math here and I’m always hesitant of the suit working out, but either way I guess there are some interested parties in the assets of RideQ. 
 

MSFT ATVI discount to buyout price looks interesting as well. Seems like free money on the table (knock on wood). 

[wisowis]

8 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

Has anyone looked at the JNJ-KVUE swap?  It's an interesting one.

You buy 99 shares of JNJ and swap it into KVUE at a meaningful discount.  It's about a 17% return in 2 weeks time.  

If you buy 100 shares you want be guaranteed a full swap, and if you buy 99 shares and don't allocate the full 99 shares, then you will lose out as well.  KVUE also has sold off and seems cheap to me given its business and moat.  Hedge Funds cant do this (99 share issue) and most retail is unaware of the transaction.  

 

Interesting idea, but how do you get 17%? As of Friday, JNJ shares closed at $173.85, KVUE closed at $23.72. Indicative ratio (as of Friday) was 7.9334x (per https://www.envisionreports.com/jnjseparation/2023/JNJSeparationaug11/index.html?voting=true). 

 

That gives me an 8.2% return, unless I am missing something?

 

[lnofeisone]

8 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

Has anyone looked at the JNJ-KVUE swap?  It's an interesting one.

You buy 99 shares of JNJ and swap it into KVUE at a meaningful discount.  It's about a 17% return in 2 weeks time.  

If you buy 100 shares you want be guaranteed a full swap, and if you buy 99 shares and don't allocate the full 99 shares, then you will lose out as well.  KVUE also has sold off and seems cheap to me given its business and moat.  Hedge Funds cant do this (99 share issue) and most retail is unaware of the transaction.  

I saw this popped up on Barron's and meant to look at it further. thanks for the reminder!

[UK]

11 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

Has anyone looked at the JNJ-KVUE swap?  It's an interesting one.

You buy 99 shares of JNJ and swap it into KVUE at a meaningful discount.  It's about a 17% return in 2 weeks time.  

If you buy 100 shares you want be guaranteed a full swap, and if you buy 99 shares and don't allocate the full 99 shares, then you will lose out as well.  KVUE also has sold off and seems cheap to me given its business and moat.  Hedge Funds cant do this (99 share issue) and most retail is unaware of the transaction.  

 

Thanks!

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/jnj-kenvue-stock-price-odd-lot-rule-96aa9b74

 

Also: One potential positive is that arbitragers have been buying J&J and selling short Kenvue to take advantage of the 7.5% spread. This has depressed Kenvue by about 3% since the deal was announced in July while J&J is up about 2%. This could mean that Kenvue may appreciate once the deal is done and that trade is unwound. When General Electric did an exchange offer for Synchrony Financial in 2015, GE stock outperformed before the deal and Synchrony outperformed GE immediately thereafter.

 

And: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kenvue-set-join-p-500-224200805.html