Gregmal Posted January 14, 2022 Posted January 14, 2022 BKEP is a bit of a hybrid. Had a small single digit position from under $2 then after the buyout offer the profile changed dramatically so I upped a good bit. So there's an investment portion of the position and then also an event driven cash sub element to a much bigger part of it. Will adjust accordingly as things evolve.
Kupotea Posted January 14, 2022 Posted January 14, 2022 Took a large position in SU. No hedges and it seems to be priced slightly below strip pricing which I already think is understated. One of the few large cap stocks allocating serious capital to buybacks right now.
Spekulatius Posted January 15, 2022 Posted January 15, 2022 Bought a bit of AJRD for $43 at the close. AJRD is supposed to merge with LMT for $51 but now the vote on this merger got delayed. I think the downside is protected even if the merger doesn’t take place. AJRD trades at similar multiples in term of EV/EBITDA and P/S than other defense primes and it is a unique and irreplaceable asset with an EV of a mere $3.3B. After it was floundering for a long time, current management has started to run the company well and their balance sheet is in great shape (net cash position). I also think it will ultimately have to merge because the industrial logic to combine rocket propulsions manufacturing with the rocket itself is indisputable. I do think it’s possible that AJRD gets split into pieces that go to different competitors (NOC would be one, maybe even SpaceX), if the merger with LMT fails to get approval.
Dinar Posted January 15, 2022 Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: Bought a bit of AJRD for $43 at the close. AJRD is supposed to merge with LMT for $51 but now the vote on this merger got delayed. I think the downside is protected even if the merger doesn’t take place. AJRD trades at similar multiples in term of EV/EBITDA and P/S than other defense primes and it is a unique and irreplaceable asset with an EV of a mere $3.3B. After it was floundering for a long time, current management has started to run the company well and their balance sheet is in great shape (net cash position). I also think it will ultimately have to merge because the industrial logic to combine rocket propulsions manufacturing with the rocket itself is indisputable. I do think it’s possible that AJRD gets split into pieces that go to different competitors (NOC would be one, maybe even SpaceX), if the merger with LMT fails to get approval. Were you the one who posted the VIC write-up with the same logic on Friday evening?
Spekulatius Posted January 15, 2022 Posted January 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, Dinar said: Were you the one who posted the VIC write-up with the same logic on Friday evening? No, I am a peon on VIC with 90 day delay.
boilermaker75 Posted January 16, 2022 Posted January 16, 2022 (edited) 10 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Bought a bit of AJRD for $43 at the close. AJRD is supposed to merge with LMT for $51 but now the vote on this merger got delayed. I think the downside is protected even if the merger doesn’t take place. AJRD trades at similar multiples in term of EV/EBITDA and P/S than other defense primes and it is a unique and irreplaceable asset with an EV of a mere $3.3B. After it was floundering for a long time, current management has started to run the company well and their balance sheet is in great shape (net cash position). I also think it will ultimately have to merge because the industrial logic to combine rocket propulsions manufacturing with the rocket itself is indisputable. I do think it’s possible that AJRD gets split into pieces that go to different competitors (NOC would be one, maybe even SpaceX), if the merger with LMT fails to get approval. @Spekulatius I like these all cash risk arbitrage plays. I do it by writing puts when they look attractive like this. The 40-strike, Jan 21 expirations puts were going for $0.60 at the close on Friday. I'll likely write these first thing Tuesday morning. If the Jan 21 puts change dramatically by then I'll be looking at the Feb. 18 expiration puts, which were going for $1.70 at the close on Friday. I like to play these with puts because the time frame is known. Thanks for the heads up. Edited January 16, 2022 by boilermaker75
formthirteen Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 Starter position in ZM. Seems like a great business.
Gregmal Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 On 11/10/2021 at 2:39 PM, Gregmal said: Puts on SPCE and PLTR Been covering these lately. Played out mostly as expected. SPCE is still probably a zero but I’ve scaled back the total portfolio enough that I don’t really need as much hedge exposure as I had/have on.
CafeB Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 (edited) UL. Will management disregard market's vote of no confidence? Edited January 18, 2022 by CafeB
longlake95 Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, CafeB said: UL. Will management disregard market's vote of no confidence? I hope so. I own this. Among, all the negativity recently, over the past year or so, I thought Jope did a fine job selling the low-growth tea biz for 5B. He is certainly reshaping the product portfolio. I do take exception to the over-focus on ESG, mayo-with-purpose, is a waste of time. LOL. I like the pivot to health and wellness... I'm not a fan potential dilution... we'll see
exege Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 Starter positions in CVE, SU, CNQ. Better late than never.
E. Nashton Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 Haven't made any big moves today or YTD but did some small add-ons to existing long-term positions today including COST, BAM and AMZN.
Spekulatius Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 Adding a bit across the board - LBRDA, PINS, TWTR, TPB, KIND, FROG in small chunks. Started ESTC in one account. I feel some growth or even SAAS plays start to get into interesting valuation ranges.
RiskAdjReturn Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: PCYO gregmal, is there a thread on the board on this name/thesis?
Gregmal Posted January 18, 2022 Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, RiskAdjReturn said: gregmal, is there a thread on the board on this name/thesis? Been a boring last 12 months for the story and should continue to be for the next couple Qs, but at this price I view it as a reasonable place to again start going overweight in anticipation of the future catalysts.
formthirteen Posted January 19, 2022 Posted January 19, 2022 (edited) MSB, PCYO, more 9988. Edited January 19, 2022 by formthirteen
BG2008 Posted January 19, 2022 Posted January 19, 2022 CCRN - Healthcare staffing company with a Founder who returned as CEO. Took EBITDA margin from 3% to 8%. Founder CEO transitioning to Chairman and installing one of his leutenant as CEO. 2021 is a crazy year with $3 EPS so this trades at just under 7x P/FCF. Normalized, this should be about $2 of FCF so 10x FCF for a healthcare staffing biz. There is optionality in Chairman being able to acquire/roll up the space a bit. @wabuffo Take a look
Spekulatius Posted January 19, 2022 Posted January 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, BG2008 said: CCRN - Healthcare staffing company with a Founder who returned as CEO. Took EBITDA margin from 3% to 8%. Founder CEO transitioning to Chairman and installing one of his leutenant as CEO. 2021 is a crazy year with $3 EPS so this trades at just under 7x P/FCF. Normalized, this should be about $2 of FCF so 10x FCF for a healthcare staffing biz. There is optionality in Chairman being able to acquire/roll up the space a bit. @wabuffo Take a look Temp staffing for travel nurses? No way the demand for travel nurses stays where it is right now. I think the business is likely to shrink, post pandemic.
Gregmal Posted January 19, 2022 Posted January 19, 2022 Nursing has and always will be in demand though, so its decent. Personally I'm looking for opportunities to make private investments in schooling or education platforms for K-12. One thing COVID really exposed is how much of a joke the public schooling systems are. Outside of being slaves to the scumbags at the unions, they're just plain second rate compared to other options. Record number of kids are currently being homeschooled or enrolled in private schools. There will be fortunes made with this, and not in the scummy for profit college type way. You just gotta dig a little harder to find the opportunities.
BG2008 Posted January 19, 2022 Posted January 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Temp staffing for travel nurses? No way the demand for travel nurses stays where it is right now. I think the business is likely to shrink, post pandemic. Will definitely shrink after Covid. That's why I think the $3 EPS goes to $2. Figure a 1.2 bn of revenue at 8% EBITDA margin instead of $1.6bn of revenue. Gets to you to roughly 10x P/FCF normalized in 22. Good management team gets you some optionality in growth and this company becoming AMN in the future.
drzola Posted January 19, 2022 Posted January 19, 2022 I just added another 25% to my holdings and it now is a large holding sitting at close to 5% portfolio sizing too date.
rkbabang Posted January 19, 2022 Posted January 19, 2022 50 minutes ago, drzola said: I just added another 25% to my holdings and it now is a large holding sitting at close to 5% portfolio sizing too date. I think you forgot to include the ticker symbol or company name in your post. Unless I'm missing something.
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