What are you buying today?

[Spekulatius]

Adds to FISV and Prosus /PROHY.

[Gregmal]

rebought a bunch of PSTH warrants. Finally getting appealing on a non-speculative hot potato basis now that the hot money has left. 

[Spekulatius]

NTDOY / Nintendo (starter) and a tracker in ATVI.

[bathtime]

11 hours ago, Gregmal said:

rebought a bunch of PSTH warrants. Finally getting appealing on a non-speculative hot potato basis now that the hot money has left. 

Nice, I started a little high at $4. Benefit I see compared to many other SPACS is that Ackman will more likely be buying an already profitable company. So there’ll be a reasonable growth compounding over five years to support equity/warrant appreciation. 

[gfp]

On 7/27/2021 at 12:47 PM, Gregmal said:

Yea the bankers quite regularly seem to fall back on internal models which price these based on what phase a biotech company is in or how far away they are from generating revenue. Same thing happened with BEAM and not much later it was a 5 bagger. Not saying the same occurs with CRBU, but what I will say is that I would have paid more than the current market cap to own shares pre IPO. So I like it here. Doesnt take much to start moving the needle, as we just saw with NTLA the past year. 

 

On 7/27/2021 at 11:24 AM, bathtime said:

 

At $16/share, if underwriters exercise their option for additional shares, CRBU has market cap of approx. $916m with cash of approx. $398m. Seems like a relative value compared to other CRISPR companies.

 

This one was a great heads up - Thanks Gregmal

[Gregmal]

^ No problem. Everyone should have one of these!

 

[Charlie]

Bought some Berkshire b shares. 

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-is-reporting-earnings-on-saturday-heres-what-to-expect-51628176595?siteid=yhoof2

[dalekirkwood]

On 7/30/2021 at 9:37 PM, Libs said:

The simplified version is, if all goes well, they'll be growing over a million pounds of weed in a few years, at a cost of $150 a pound. A pound of cannabis in CA goes for $2,000 a pound now. 

Market cap is under $500MM now.

Small, obviously very speculative position. There's a thread. My contention is CA will not suffer from oversupply and the selling price will hold up.

 

Thanks for getting back to me. I did read a bit more into it, and it's a very interesting proposition. I'd be interested in a small speculative position. Best of luck!

 

[ERICOPOLY]

On 7/24/2021 at 8:45 AM, Gregmal said:

Bought some food for the kids on the way to the shore this morning. When the heck did McDonalds become so expensive? Ordered 2 hash browns(used to be .99 each) and a sausage egg and cheese(IIRC always like $3...was featured in the Buffett HBO doc!) and it was $8.30! Then went across to Burger King and got a jr cheeseburger, 10 piece chicken nuggets(same 10 piece nugget at MCD are like $5), a rodeo burger, small fries, mozzarella sticks, and a chocolate milk...for $8.74. 

 

I dont know why anyone would ever eat at MCD...only attraction used to be how cheap the food is. Now the same dogshit, plastic play food is more expensive than Burger King or Wendys and both of the later choices are significantly better quality. 

 

 

I passed a comment like that to our teenagers (4 of them) and they staunchly defended MCD.  I was dumbfounded.

[rkbabang]

13 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

I passed a comment like that to our teenagers (4 of them) and they staunchly defended MCD.  I was dumbfounded.

 

I agree with your teenagers.  I'd rather pay to eat McD.  I wouldn't eat at BK if they had an all you can eat for free promotion.  BK is the TacoBell of burger joints, absolutely disgusting.  Although I do prefer Wendy's to McDs.

 

[Gregmal]

LOL yea IDK. I really cant eat that kind of food(or candy for that matter either) anymore. I dont know what it is but something changed when I got older and I just cant. Actually there's one exception. Chick-fil-A I can eat all day. I'll occasionally try...usually prompted by the nostalgia of loving it as a little kid, or as a teenager smoking a ton of weed with my friends and then going to Wendys and getting a half dozen Jr Bacon Cheeseburgers and a couple fries for under $10...but generally even when I push myself to have something, I'll end up taking a few bites and then throwing it out or giving it to my dog. My kids though....love it. Cant pass a BK/MCD/Wendys without soccer game like cheers. 

[aws]

A new house. Paying 3x more per square foot than my last house from 9 years ago ($270/sq ft vs. $90 last time), but in this market we were probably lucky to get anything. And this was probably the most reasonably priced of the homes we offered on as most closed at more like 400/sq ft.

[Gregmal]

25 minutes ago, aws said:

A new house. Paying 3x more per square foot than my last house from 9 years ago ($270/sq ft vs. $90 last time), but in this market we were probably lucky to get anything. And this was probably the most reasonably priced of the homes we offered on as most closed at more like 400/sq ft.

Good shit. I'm in the process of closing on a property as well. A couple months ago I didnt think I've be pulling the trigger for a long time given the market, but sometimes when you really evaluate things, the opportunity cost is too great and its better to just bite the bullet. 

[Gregmal]

On 8/5/2021 at 10:07 AM, gfp said:

 

 

This one was a great heads up - Thanks Gregmal

In case you guys are still holding...word of advice on the CRISPR stocks....never sell a small piece of your position. If you understand the investment case, the sky is the limit and irrespective of how it plays out the moves in these names will shock you so dont get too giddy after a simple 10-20% move. Ive generally found trimming 20-30% of the position after 30-50% moves or so works. Then reverse that process in terms of accumulating. You'll have your original investment pulled in no time. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Bought some PFIX yesterday to profit from higher long-rates. 

 

Moved 15-20% of my intermediate bond funds to money market. 

 

Still in the lower for longer camp on rates - definitely don't see 2-3% interest rates anytime soon, but the move down in rates has been strong and fast and TLT has been bouncing off of over-bought levels for a bit now. 

 

Also, seems as if the consensus in some places is now for another major leg down ...which made anxious that we're now ready to move the opposite direction and head back closer to 1.5 - 1.6%

Edited August 6, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[matthew2129]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Bought some PFIX yesterday to profit from higher long-rates. 

 

Moved 15-20% of my intermediate bond funds to money market. 

 

Still in the lower for longer camp on rates - definitely don't see 2-3% interest rates anytime soon, but the move down in rates has been strong and fast and TLT has been bouncing off of over-bought levels for a bit now. 

 

Also, seems as if the consensus in some places is now for another major leg down ...which made anxious that we're now ready to move the opposite direction and head back closer to 1.5 - 1.6%

Curious why you picked PFIX instead of something like XLF or VFH? I don't know much about PFIX. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Leverage. 

 

PFIX is a swaption wrapped in an ETF. Basically they own options to enter into floating rate interest rate swaps once 20-year rates get to 3-4%. 

 

In short, it's an option (leverage) that allows you to enter into a contract where you short fixed rates and go long floating rates (more leverage) on 20-year rates (massive duration/leverage). 

 

Up 3% today. Dunno what the 20-year reference rate moved, but 10-year is only up 0.07% so this thing gives you MANY multiples exposure to the rise in rates and doesn't come with any of the business specific risk of owning financials directly. 

 

Also, I already own a ton of European financials so covered there. 

[johnpane]

16 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Up 3% today. Dunno what the 20-year reference rate moved, but 10-year is only up 0.07% so this thing gives you MANY multiples exposure to the rise in rates and doesn't come with any of the business specific risk of owning financials directly. 

The market price was up 3% Friday but the NAV barely moved. So don't count on that day's action as an indicator of leverage. Also, keep in mind that the swaption prices are also affected by volatility.

 

https://www.simplify.us/etfs/pfix-simplify-interest-rate-hedge-etf

 

NAV Change

+$0.07/0.17%

Price Change

+$1.26/3.14%

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by johnpane

[TwoCitiesCapital]

7 hours ago, johnpane said:

The market price was up 3% Friday but the NAV barely moved. So don't count on that day's action as an indicator of leverage. Also, keep in mind that the swaption prices are also affected by volatility.

 

https://www.simplify.us/etfs/pfix-simplify-interest-rate-hedge-etf

 

NAV Change

+$0.07/0.17%

Price Change

+$1.26/3.14%

 

 

+1

 

Hadn't considered to check the NAV, but ultimately this should act as a super leveraged exposure to rising 20-year rates which was my intention. 

[Every Banana Counts]

JD and BABA over the last few weeks. Both felt uncomfortable to buy, as there is obviously a lot of fear and publicity surrounding China now. Setting aside massive regulatory risks this seems like a simple investment decision. Position size is the only way I know to manage the very complex regulatory risk. These are both great companies in a system I don’t understand and have a very hard time relating to. 

[formthirteen]

$WISH and $PDD

 

Yes, this might be a sign that we're at the top.

Edited August 9, 2021 by formthirteen

[fareastwarriors]

some MSGE

[WayWardCloud]

More Tencent.

 

It has become a major position of mine.

Amazing core business spitting out free cash which is being reallocated to a gigantic international VC portfolio.

If you back out their investments this trades at a PE in the low teens.

 

I wish the CCP would leave them alone but then again it's the only reason you could ever buy this for so cheap so I'm ready to take the political risk and see where we're at in 10 years. Politicians and their scrutiny come and go, hopefully.

Edited August 9, 2021 by WayWardCloud

[Gregmal]

2 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

some MSGE

Me too. Its definitely caught in the current "oh no covid" selling cycle/trading pattern...but whatever. I like playing that game. I'm shocked people are still playing it on the panic sell side, but just remember how it played out last time. Take you time accumulating, make a lot of money once the boogey man fades. Indestructible, world class trophy assets for sure, and the LYV Q2 note was immensely bullish for the space. 

[changegonnacome]

4 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

some MSGE

Me too

 

Las Vegas is never shutting down again & NYC......well.......vaccination rates are high, it was epicentre of early COVID so lots of people with Mid-2020 naturally acquired antibodies.....combined NY metro is probably at ~75% of adults with COVID antibodies . Lockdowns wont be needed, health system wont be overwhelemed and NY'ers are done staying in their basements

 

MSG Arena will be full this fall/winter with sports and concerts

Rockettes will be jam packed as it has been for 84 years (excepting last year)

Tao Group restaurants are already full / booked out in NYC for weekend nights

Sports betting is coming to NY state - MSGN will have super engaged viewers for knicks/rangers games & desperate advertisers looking to pitch their gambling gaming app