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Posted

Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity

Posted

Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity

 

mybookie.ag

 

A few caveats...1) daily wire limit is only $2,500. 2) Its an offshore based operation so you effectively have no recourse should they try to screw you. The limits on $ in a way for me are to remind myself that obviously its still gambling(not best use of money) and also to only screw around with insignificant sums in the event there is an issue with #2. I've looked at some of the legal operations that have sprouted up in past few years but dont think they make a huge difference. I tried FanDuel but kept running into issues where they couldn't verify locations and wouldn't allow bets. I also dont gamble a lot. Maybe a half dozen events in the last 10-15 years.

 

Posted

Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity

 

mybookie.ag

 

A few caveats...1) daily wire limit is only $2,500. 2) Its an offshore based operation so you effectively have no recourse should they try to screw you. The limits on $ in a way for me are to remind myself that obviously its still gambling(not best use of money) and also to only screw around with insignificant sums in the event there is an issue with #2. I've looked at some of the legal operations that have sprouted up in past few years but dont think they make a huge difference. I tried FanDuel but kept running into issues where they couldn't verify locations and wouldn't allow bets. I also dont gamble a lot. Maybe a half dozen events in the last 10-15 years.

 

 

The name "mybookie" is also another reminder that it is gambling I think.  Sounds like fun with small amounts though.

 

Posted

QQQ puts.

 

Triple top, all lower than preceding one.

 

Cardboard

 

I bought some December bear verticals here too. Not a lot but just in case the market decides to sell off.

Posted

Bought some Teva yesterday, results out today. Really cheap on a P/FCF basis, lots of noise around litigation. Should be in a place to return money to shareholders in 3 years time. Expanding margins, growth plus litigation settlement could see this triple in 3 years but there are obviously risks here.

Posted

Not necessarily today (two days ago), but bought SEA in size after cutting my Shopify position by a quarter and the extra capital coming in.

 

 

That's SEA Limited, right?  I was almost going to get in, except regular life busy work got in way.

Posted

Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again!

 

I have them at 129x EV/EBITDA (forward 12M). Is the 110x PE a CapIQ / Bloomberg estate? That looks cheap.

 

I didn't realize SE had earnings.

Posted

Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again!

 

I have them at 129x EV/EBITDA (forward 12M). Is the 110x PE a CapIQ / Bloomberg estate? That looks cheap.

 

I didn't realize SE had earnings.

 

Not PE but rather owner’s earnings - how much cash flow can I sustainably take from the business over its lifetime?

 

Optically it has no earnings but looking at the business it seems they are under earning. They can actually generate a profit this year, but I believe that they chose to invest in their moat. Which is about right, as they mentioned they want to “break even” by 2020.

 

Here’s the unit economics.

 

It takes $6 to acquire a customer. Customer orders on average 3.6 times per month and average spend per order is $16. Hence, customer orders $60 per month and if we assume take rate is 10% - they’re being paid back customer acquisition cost in little over a month.

 

Why would you want to generate a profit now?

 

Once they make a profit - I think the huge returns are too late, as it becomes a mature company.

 

Only thing that destroys this is interest rates/deflation on a valuation basis, but I believe they can fund growth from their cash flow if they wanted, hence it’s a temporary problem.

 

It’s similar to Zozo and other e-com in Japan where they did relatively well considering the economy they were operating in where it had deflation or as some call it - the lost decade.

 

Since I always have more capital coming in - I can always average down whenever that happens.

 

Posted

Thanks for clarifying the unit economics. Yup completely agree with you. By the time Fed raises, hopefully Shopee becomes a beast.

 

Posted

Last week added to: ATCO, PCYO, RTX, BAC, WFC, INTC, and started new 3% position AAPL

 

This morning started positions in ESRT, PGRE, VNO. Still cheap with the vaccine news.

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