Jump to content

What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

Recommended Posts

Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity

 

mybookie.ag

 

A few caveats...1) daily wire limit is only $2,500. 2) Its an offshore based operation so you effectively have no recourse should they try to screw you. The limits on $ in a way for me are to remind myself that obviously its still gambling(not best use of money) and also to only screw around with insignificant sums in the event there is an issue with #2. I've looked at some of the legal operations that have sprouted up in past few years but dont think they make a huge difference. I tried FanDuel but kept running into issues where they couldn't verify locations and wouldn't allow bets. I also dont gamble a lot. Maybe a half dozen events in the last 10-15 years.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity

 

mybookie.ag

 

A few caveats...1) daily wire limit is only $2,500. 2) Its an offshore based operation so you effectively have no recourse should they try to screw you. The limits on $ in a way for me are to remind myself that obviously its still gambling(not best use of money) and also to only screw around with insignificant sums in the event there is an issue with #2. I've looked at some of the legal operations that have sprouted up in past few years but dont think they make a huge difference. I tried FanDuel but kept running into issues where they couldn't verify locations and wouldn't allow bets. I also dont gamble a lot. Maybe a half dozen events in the last 10-15 years.

 

 

The name "mybookie" is also another reminder that it is gambling I think.  Sounds like fun with small amounts though.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bought some Teva yesterday, results out today. Really cheap on a P/FCF basis, lots of noise around litigation. Should be in a place to return money to shareholders in 3 years time. Expanding margins, growth plus litigation settlement could see this triple in 3 years but there are obviously risks here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again!

 

I have them at 129x EV/EBITDA (forward 12M). Is the 110x PE a CapIQ / Bloomberg estate? That looks cheap.

 

I didn't realize SE had earnings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again!

 

I have them at 129x EV/EBITDA (forward 12M). Is the 110x PE a CapIQ / Bloomberg estate? That looks cheap.

 

I didn't realize SE had earnings.

 

Not PE but rather owner’s earnings - how much cash flow can I sustainably take from the business over its lifetime?

 

Optically it has no earnings but looking at the business it seems they are under earning. They can actually generate a profit this year, but I believe that they chose to invest in their moat. Which is about right, as they mentioned they want to “break even” by 2020.

 

Here’s the unit economics.

 

It takes $6 to acquire a customer. Customer orders on average 3.6 times per month and average spend per order is $16. Hence, customer orders $60 per month and if we assume take rate is 10% - they’re being paid back customer acquisition cost in little over a month.

 

Why would you want to generate a profit now?

 

Once they make a profit - I think the huge returns are too late, as it becomes a mature company.

 

Only thing that destroys this is interest rates/deflation on a valuation basis, but I believe they can fund growth from their cash flow if they wanted, hence it’s a temporary problem.

 

It’s similar to Zozo and other e-com in Japan where they did relatively well considering the economy they were operating in where it had deflation or as some call it - the lost decade.

 

Since I always have more capital coming in - I can always average down whenever that happens.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...