What are you buying today?

[brobro777]

Scuttle Blurb had an analysis of ADSK years ago that I thought was decent:

 

https://www.scuttleblurb.com/category/adsk-autodesk/

[ourkid8]

Added to my BTI and BABA position. 

Edited April 19 by ourkid8

[Lance]

ADM, BTI and MSB

 

Thanks

Lance

[Saluki]

Trimmed some SWBI and added to NTDOY and BTI.  

[Malmqky]

Haven’t done anything in months now, getting bored. So to scratch that itch, bought a little more Hershey, little Nintendo.

[Viking]

Canfor (CFP.TO) at C$14.35. Time to scratch my (monthly?) lumber itch. 
 

Market cap is $1.7 billion. Net debt is a positive $300 million (net cash position). So enterprise value is about $1.4 billion.
 

They also have +$900 million of duties on deposit. This is worth something.

 

The stock is selling off aggressively because interest/mortgage rates have moved higher. 

Edited April 19 by Viking

[DooDiligence]

3% position in Hershey. Anchored to a price now and would buy more if it dropped.

 

HSY + DPZ + NVO = $

[Luca]

I'll build a 3x KWEB ETF position on monday with a planned allocation of 3-5% of my PF. 

 

If we hit 2021 Valuations again in the next 5 years its gonna be close to a 10-bagger. Valuation in China are nuts and company quality is at least as high in the US, KWEB is cheap: 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 20 by Luca

[Luca]

5 minutes ago, Luca said:

I'll build a 3x KWEB ETF position on monday with a planned allocation of 3-5% of my PF. 

 

If we hit 2021 Valuations again in the next 5 years its gonna be close to a 10-bagger. Valuation in China are nuts and company quality is at least as high in the US, KWEB is cheap: 

 

 

 

 

Btw, these slides are a bit older. Tencent got cheaper, PDD grew a lot and is now at 10-15x earnings. JD.com buying back, Net-ease, Baba, Meituan...

Edited April 20 by Luca

[Luca]

And they all have very large cash positions on their balance sheet on top. 

[Luca]

I hope I am not catching the falling knife china and we end up 50% lower next year due to the crisis getting even worse...still I can not resist. 

[Spekulatius]

These 3x ETF’s get killed by volatility if the underlying index goes nowhere and the index just seesaws. It’s going to essentially buy high and sell low all the time due to the inherent 3x  leverage. 

Edited April 20 by Spekulatius

[Luca]

20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

These 3x ETF’s get killed by volatility if the underlying index goes nowhere and the index just seesaws. It’s going to essentially buy high and sell low all the time due to the inherent 3x  leverage. 

Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. 

Edited April 20 by Luca

[KJP]

1 minute ago, Luca said:

Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. 

 

That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to.  3x funds rebalance on a daily basis.  So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index.  A simple example:

 

Buy at 100

Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115.

Day 2: index goes back to 100.  This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%.  115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57.  The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). 

 

This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets.  

[Spekulatius]

Just now, KJP said:

 

That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to.  3x funds rebalance on a daily basis.  So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index.  A simple example:

 

Buy at 100

Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115.

Day 2: index goes back to 100.  This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%.  115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57.  The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). 

 

This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets.  

[sleepydragon]

19 minutes ago, Luca said:

Yep, and a -30% crash will get you down to -90% and that can happen but I also think that with all the buybacks, sentiment bottom and ongoing recovery that the window to go into china with leverage looks relatively attractive here, ill leave some space to DCA into this too. 

if you buy it using margins , it will outperforms the 3x etfs. The 3x ETFs are a ripoff and a big profit source for banks trading it. You basically being front run because people know how much the index must buy at eod especially when there’s large movements . 

Edited April 20 by sleepydragon

[RedLion]

On 4/20/2024 at 11:20 AM, KJP said:

 

That likely is not what @Spekulatius was referring to.  3x funds rebalance on a daily basis.  So, over time they do not track 3x the cumulative performance of the index.  A simple example:

 

Buy at 100

Day 1: index goes to 105, so up 5% -- 3x goes up 15%, so 3x fund to 115.

Day 2: index goes back to 100.  This is down 5/105 = down 4.7619%, so 3x fund will be down 3 x 4.7619 = 14.2857%.  115 * (1 - .142857) = 98.57.  The 3x fund has underperformed (3 x cumulative return of the index). 

 

This effect will magnify over time and can be particularly brutal in volatile but overall flat markets.  

I experimented with a trade several years back where you went short on both long and short etf’s and then tried to keep them balanced to try to capture the time decay, don’t remember exactly what happened but I think I closed out with a small profit. 

[Luca]

Starter in 3x KWEB 

 

ISIN:XS2399370043

[KJP]

Solitron Devices

Thomasville Bancshares

[Spekulatius]

Picked up some CNHI shares this AM on the dunk related to the CEO change.

[Sweet]

55 minutes ago, Luca said:

Starter in 3x KWEB 

 

ISIN:XS2399370043

 

 

I’m sure you already know, but these 3x ETFs have horrible decay in their value when held for the long term.  Be careful with these.

[Luca]

21 minutes ago, Sweet said:

I’m sure you already know, but these 3x ETFs have horrible decay in their value when held for the long term.  Be careful with these.

Yeye, i like the setup here, didnt play around with this kind of product before and will gain some experience...no investment advice  

Edited April 22 by Luca

[Saluki]

small adds to BTI, NTDOY, FFXDF and ENVX

[Luca]

Adding to 3x KWEB

[John Hjorth]

Started with small positions today in :

 

HUFV A.STO [Hufvudstaden AB, ser. A, Stockholm, Sweden],

ENTRA.OS [ENTRA AS, Oslo, Norway], &

WALL B.STO [Wallenstam AB, ser. B, Göteborg, Sweden].