Parsad Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 hours ago, ourkid8 said: I added to my position in SBRCY @ $0.93 Be careful! This is the problem with political risk...it's immeasurable. Shareholders in SBRCY will probably get wiped out, even if the sanctions are short-term. Bondholders would more likely make some money here, but only if sanctions are short-term. The only hope is some Chinese bank walks in and buys it, since Russia cannot nationalize a bank that has no prospects under essentially a worthless ruble. If you are trying to take advantage of this situation, look for businesses outside of Russia that have been hit because they do business there, but have no risk in terms of most of their assets being situated outside. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Parsad said: Be careful! This is the problem with political risk...it's immeasurable. Shareholders in SBRCY will probably get wiped out, even if the sanctions are short-term. Bondholders would more likely make some money here, but only if sanctions are short-term. The only hope is some Chinese bank walks in and buys it, since Russia cannot nationalize a bank that has no prospects under essentially a worthless ruble. If you are trying to take advantage of this situation, look for businesses outside of Russia that have been hit because they do business there, but have no risk in terms of most of their assets being situated outside. Cheers! Russia has wiped out investors before, so has Egypt. Investors in Argentina pretty much lost 90% over the years. Country equity market absolutely can go to zero. Edited March 3, 2022 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 eBay starter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 I saw that too. What do u think longer term, Greg? Revenues are defendable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Yea I actually think they can grow them if they focus on the right places. I wouldnt make that as a base case assumption by any stretch, but its definitely doable. Ebay IMO is one of the most under appreciated businesses in the world. Its pretty much everyones pawn shop. Nowhere else can you reliably turn pretty much anything you own into cash inside of 3 days, without leaving your house? One of the biggest ticket segments has been items that requires authentication. So stuff like designer clothing, watches, etc. Stuff that Ive always thought "what kind of idiot would buy one on eBay as you're almost certainly getting a fraud"....these things have been opportunity for the consignment shops and places like Farfetched. But they've moved strong there and while I dont think its going to be an overnight success, no doubt their guarantee program will attract more buyers and sellers than before. They make consistent money and fees are not really challengeable. So if you take all this and then look at the bigger picture, its a mature biz and a financial engineering/operating story. If they keep earning and just blowing holes in the share count you dont need a whole lot to go right to make good money from here. If it came back another 20-30% Id happily make it a 10%+ position. Also has a shot at being acquired IMO. Just all around unappreciated when really its a different animal than AMZN and the other stuff people always comp it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfbm21 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 EBAY - Any thoughts on the following, Here is a message from a (soon to be former) Ebay power seller, from the "trenches". I am an "old timer" as far as Ebay goes - nearly 18 years. Most of them have been good for me. Now, it's time to move everything to Amazon. Why? Because the fees have gone over the top, for what you receive from Ebay as a seller. I can get fulfillment by Amazon for nearly the same price. That means I don't have to do a thing! So my well into 6-figure sales are going to Amazon. I am part of a local Ebay user group. Collectively, we sell well into 7 figures per year on various online sites, with (up to this point) most of it on Ebay. We're leaving. It's too expensive. And get this - and I just learned this from one of the associates that helps pack our products for shipments. Ebay charges sellers a fee on the sales tax it collects! For us that amounts to thousands of dollars per year lost in profit! I never see a PENNY of that money, even to invest. That was the nail in the coffin for me. We are winding down now with Ebay. By summer I will be 100% Amazon and will be shutting down most of my operation. I won't need it. Amazon will be doing 75%+ of the work, and I will only need a small space for consolidating and then sending to various Amazon locations. I am aware of others in our user group that will be doing the same. I suspect this is playing out in other areas in the US as well. It has been a great run. Too bad Ebay had to ruin it with excessive fees. I'm also wondering how many users Ebay is losing because of the new 1099 rules. I understand why the government wants it, but it has to be scaring off many sellers who don't want to deal with a Schedule C on their taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 KKR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Those things are real for sure but thats always going to be a risk with any platform. They've been going back and forth with AMZN forever with poaching and stealing customers. However I think a good portion is amazon proof. Amazon has a much bigger issue with authenticity and quality than Ebay. Additionally, many "power sellers" are just simply stores that sell basic shit. Thats a great cash cow but not sustainable and I find it somewhat miraculous eBay has been able to keep that going as long as they have. Other areas though are apples to oranges. Amazon is basically a dollar store and Ebay is a pawn shop. Both can easily exist. Theres certain items that one buys on eBay that they'd never buy on Amazon. And vice versa. I also think they've got room to redo and monetize better the payments void PayPal left. Ebay itself, is one hell of a unique piece of internet real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Value_Added Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) Both Amazon and ebay are creating a need for a high dollar marketplace built on trust. Gregmal nailed it with the descriptions of dollar store and pawn shop and I don’t see how they can get past these connotations with the scale they’ve developed in those markets. Not saying they are bad businesses because they are clearly not, but there is a huge void they’ve created in the high dollar market and someone will eventually fill it. It’ll be interesting who will be the first to get to scale and profitability with trust and reputation still intact. There are several sites trying to do this, but it still seems highly fragmented in terms of offerings and trustworthiness. It seems like most deal with fashion (farfetch, stock x). Then there is 1st Dibs who is the only publicly traded company I know of that you can dig into and they seem to be less fragmented with offerings from furniture and art to watches and fashion. Edited March 3, 2022 by Value_Added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Inditex. At 52w lows. About 7% of its stores are located in Russia, 1% in Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) 30 minutes ago, elliott said: Inditex. At 52w lows. About 7% of its stores are located in Russia, 1% in Ukraine. Wel wil definitely see some impact from sanctions in many companies. For example, I was surprised that ~4% of VISA’s business is related to Russia and Ukraine (including cross border revenues). European will take the biggest hit - the European car makers struggle with supply chain issues due to lack of wire harnesses, which were produced in western Ukraine. This could well cause a recession there. Edited March 4, 2022 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) On 3/3/2022 at 12:33 PM, Gregmal said: Yea I actually think they can grow them if they focus on the right places. I wouldnt make that as a base case assumption by any stretch, but its definitely doable. Ebay IMO is one of the most under appreciated businesses in the world. Its pretty much everyones pawn shop. Nowhere else can you reliably turn pretty much anything you own into cash inside of 3 days, without leaving your house? One of the biggest ticket segments has been items that requires authentication. So stuff like designer clothing, watches, etc. Stuff that Ive always thought "what kind of idiot would buy one on eBay as you're almost certainly getting a fraud"....these things have been opportunity for the consignment shops and places like Farfetched. But they've moved strong there and while I dont think its going to be an overnight success, no doubt their guarantee program will attract more buyers and sellers than before. They make consistent money and fees are not really challengeable. So if you take all this and then look at the bigger picture, its a mature biz and a financial engineering/operating story. If they keep earning and just blowing holes in the share count you dont need a whole lot to go right to make good money from here. If it came back another 20-30% Id happily make it a 10%+ position. Also has a shot at being acquired IMO. Just all around unappreciated when really its a different animal than AMZN and the other stuff people always comp it to. Totally agree. It also should do fine in inflation, a little light thermonuclear war (get your iodine pills when the walgreens is out), boom during covid shutdowns, whatever. I bought my last laptop and qc35s through the new factory refurbished with extended warranty program as well. I think they should be helped if financial conditions tighten with a bunch of non-economic competition funded by venture money. Hopefully they can roll some people up. Wish the stock issuance would chill a bit. If it grows a bit faster than GDP, but slower than ecommerce that's fantastic with their returns structure (that's what managements have called out for it long term, setting aside things like starting to collect sales taxes and the shutdowns ending). [Disclosure: been long a couple years] As you know, ebay started dominating in collectibles and antiques in the 19 hundred and 90's. Some of the earliest bigtime users were antique consignment stores. I like the strategy of adding these verification services for high dollar to effort categories, like sneakers and watches. Deminishes returns a bit but enhances the moat without needing to rebuild UPS and also not suck at running a marketplace and doing software. I think they will crush the upstarts in those areas, perhaps quickly if the markets begin to impose some modicum of financial discipline on venture players, because they can offer the liquidity of casual buyers like me who might also go there to look for an antique to fit a room (and vastly overpay) on a global basis. Edited March 4, 2022 by CorpRaider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agrippa07 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 in the past week added a bit here and there to FB, Intel, Naspers, Prosus and KWEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 2/17/2022 at 7:06 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said: My June $175 Call options that were purchased OTM several months back are looking decent with this recent breakout from the recent consolidation. Risked less than 0.5% of the portfolio, but now ITM on a notional that is ~20% of the portfolio value. Gold has often bottomed just before the first set of rate hikes so I think mich of the hiking is already priced in. I know everyone here likes stocks for an inflationary environment, but the track record of gold in response to negative real rates/financial repression is enviable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Probably the first time in my life that a major options position has worked out for me TLT call spreads and APPL put spreads might get there too. We'll see over the next 6 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Yea well that’s the beauty of these highly asymmetric trades. You only really need a handful to work to justify the strategy. One works well and the rest are essentially free plays at the casino. Now if only my CLF leaps could get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 KKR. Going to have to slow the roll from here on out since I'm pushing up on this being my #1 position. I've been drinking heavily at the alternative asset manager fountain all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 DIS/EBAY adds and PDD ATM leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gregmal said: DIS/EBAY adds and PDD ATM leaps. Thanks for directing my attention to EBAY - not a company I had looked at in many years and I was surprised at both the market cap and the pace of share repurchases. I bid 54 premarket at it ran higher without filling anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Wrote a couple of MSGE 65-strike March 18 puts for $0.90 per share. I have limit orders in for more at higher prices. I echo GFP with thanks to Gregmal for calling our attention to EBAY. One I also haven't thought about for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Yea, thats EBAY to a T. The forgotten about internet commerce giant. Maybe one day it surprises some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Small adds in PAH3 / POAHY, ROST, FYBR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Iodine pills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGekko69 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) added a small portion to PDD and a bottle macallan classic cut 2019 and a bottle macallan Edition No. 5. A bit of an alternative investment and if the world decides to go to hell I have 2 excellent bottles of whiskey before I bite the dust. Saying that its Friday eve over here and its time to start the weekend with a Gin. laters Edited March 4, 2022 by GordonGekko69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Bought Safran, and Ashtead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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