73 Reds Posted January 15 Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, Longnose said: This is exactly what i did when I first started investing on my own. I still have that 1 and only BRK.B. I will never sell it. But I believe for me there are bigger fish to catch in the sea to grow my small sums of capital. Even if I was young, I'd allocate a small, but meaningful amount to Berkshire and gradually add over the years. Its been a LONG time since we've had a real, prolonged market downturn. Arguably it was the GFC in 2009 but even that was relatively short lived for financial markets. Intuitively it can never be a disadvantage to own the strongest balance sheet, the most investment capital and some of the smartest capital allocators. Berkshire's performance will be lumpy but IMO far better than most predict.
dealraker Posted January 16 Posted January 16 3 hours ago, 73 Reds said: Even if I was young, I'd allocate a small, but meaningful amount to Berkshire and gradually add over the years. Its been a LONG time since we've had a real, prolonged market downturn. Arguably it was the GFC in 2009 but even that was relatively short lived for financial markets. Intuitively it can never be a disadvantage to own the strongest balance sheet, the most investment capital and some of the smartest capital allocators. Berkshire's performance will be lumpy but IMO far better than most predict. +1
bargainman Posted January 16 Posted January 16 On 1/14/2026 at 1:12 PM, hardcorevalue said: My advice to SaaS buyer is just wait for a while. The narrative is pretty horrible post Claude Cowork What I find interesting is that the Software companies are the ones with the most AI expertise, short of the AI companies (which are also usually software companies). So it's kind of ironic. I mean do you think the non software companies are going to benefit greatly from AI without help from the software companies? Just wondering...
nsx5200 Posted January 16 Posted January 16 3 hours ago, bargainman said: What I find interesting is that the Software companies are the ones with the most AI expertise, short of the AI companies (which are also usually software companies). So it's kind of ironic. I mean do you think the non software companies are going to benefit greatly from AI without help from the software companies? Just wondering... The latest narrative is that "non-coders" will be able to crank out software in one hour when it used to take a team of software engineers one years to do. Even Microsoft is getting impacted, which has both the AI and software component. So it looks like anti-software is currently winning out. IMHO, this current hype cycle seems kind of like automotive FSD back then(has it been 10 years already?). Lots of high expectation, but will take a while to actually deliver. Even now, looking at some of the videos from actual coders seems to indicate that to use "vibe coding", you need a decent understanding of the limits of these AI agents. You have to be trained in scoping and prompting to get it do anything practical. Even then, nobody's really tackle the issue of debugging, which engineers know is the real skill differentiator. AI coding is definitely a skill multiplier, but definitely not a skill replacement (yet?). Better code tend to be more compact, so the amount of good to bad code is highly skewed toward bad code. If all those AI training is done on code that's on public repository (aka bad code), then I would claim that the future of human-centric software development remains bright. Most experienced software engineers know that over time, technical debt becomes the biggest cost/drag to any project, and very few managers, especially non-technical ones, can grasp the implications of that correctly.
Junior R Posted January 16 Posted January 16 22 minutes ago, Jan said: buying the dip in FFH again same
villainx Posted January 16 Posted January 16 31 minutes ago, Jan said: buying the dip in FFH again !!!!!
bargainman Posted January 17 Posted January 17 16 hours ago, nsx5200 said: The latest narrative is that "non-coders" will be able to crank out software in one hour when it used to take a team of software engineers one years to do. Even Microsoft is getting impacted, which has both the AI and software component. So it looks like anti-software is currently winning out. IMHO, this current hype cycle seems kind of like automotive FSD back then(has it been 10 years already?). Lots of high expectation, but will take a while to actually deliver. Even now, looking at some of the videos from actual coders seems to indicate that to use "vibe coding", you need a decent understanding of the limits of these AI agents. You have to be trained in scoping and prompting to get it do anything practical. Even then, nobody's really tackle the issue of debugging, which engineers know is the real skill differentiator. AI coding is definitely a skill multiplier, but definitely not a skill replacement (yet?). Better code tend to be more compact, so the amount of good to bad code is highly skewed toward bad code. If all those AI training is done on code that's on public repository (aka bad code), then I would claim that the future of human-centric software development remains bright. Most experienced software engineers know that over time, technical debt becomes the biggest cost/drag to any project, and very few managers, especially non-technical ones, can grasp the implications of that correctly. What do you mean by MSFT is getting impacted? That could mean a number of things, I'm just curious. Here's one example. https://business.adobe.com/products/firefly-business/firefly-foundry.html https://business.adobe.com/products/firefly-business/custom-models.html Adobe offers their customers the ability to train models for them using the customer company's data/assets. Remember a lot of these are large media companies with proprietary assets they don't want to share. These companies are going to have a hard time getting top tier ML talent probably(?), much less the GPUs, frameworks etc to do what it takes to properly train and tune multi modal models. Anyone can download sample code from huggingface and try to train stuff, doesn't mean it'll be any good. Nevermind the legal challenges on using public models trained on data. I think the coding agents are a big plus to experienced engineers and a real challenge for folks getting started. But Andrew Ng recently commented that it's not like agentic coding is easy cognitively, in fact it can be rather exhausting. You're just thinking at a higher level. Essentially each agent is now like a really smart intern you have to manage. I think it could be great for tiny startups too which can create a lot from a idea very quickly. It's going to be an interesting few years that's for sure.
benchmark Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/2/2026 at 10:37 PM, Spekulatius said: Why do they hate it? I am a user who doesn’t. The alternatives I came across as a user were worse (SAP modules). Anyways, the stock is cheap if you look at NonGaap numbers. It’s a category leader growing low to mid teens and I think they can do so for quite some time while also improving margins. For comparison, WDAY trades at ~EV/ 5x revenues with 75% and growing gross margins compared to ROP at 6.7x with less organic gross (relying on acquisitions to grow). So, I think it’s cheaper than ROP. Sorry that I missed this. Most complaints were around bad UI, being slow, and functionalities not quite tied together. For example, if you want to have a dashboard of all your folks in the org for annual review and comp. adjustment, it is nearly impossible. What my HR partner ended up doing is to export to excel, then after all the adjustment, etc, then import back to workday.
Spekulatius Posted January 18 Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, benchmark said: Sorry that I missed this. Most complaints were around bad UI, being slow, and functionalities not quite tied together. For example, if you want to have a dashboard of all your folks in the org for annual review and comp. adjustment, it is nearly impossible. What my HR partner ended up doing is to export to excel, then after all the adjustment, etc, then import back to workday. This sounds like general adjustment . To do so, the employees need to be classified (engineers l admins, managers etc) and a general business process needs to apply the approved change to each employees based on a matrix set up. Just my opinion, but a manager I talked to said that management wants to make across the board increases to salary as difficult as possible to avoid age inflation. The software setup probably reflects that. Anyways some users that complain about WDAY missing that the true customers are HR and management, not the individual users. The company I work for runs hiring (most large companies do nowadays), learning system, review system and salary via a link with ADP (which processes the paychecks). I think most companies switched to WDAY from SAP and Oracle modules and those were clunky.
benchmark Posted January 18 Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: This sounds like general adjustment . To do so, the employees need to be classified (engineers l admins, managers etc) and a general business process needs to apply the approved change to each employees based on a matrix set up. Just my opinion, but a manager I talked to said that management wants to make across the board increases to salary as difficult as possible to avoid age inflation. The software setup probably reflects that. Anyways some users that complain about WDAY missing that the true customers are HR and management, not the individual users. The company I work for runs hiring (most large companies do nowadays), learning system, review system and salary via a link with ADP (which processes the paychecks). I think most companies switched to WDAY from SAP and Oracle modules and those were clunky. Interestingly, one developer that I talked to (he used to work at workday) said that workday has a lot of modules, we probably don't have the right one, which can be expensive
WFF Posted January 19 Posted January 19 Buying some Maotai. Money was in China, and seems like with the chaos, buying national champion that pays around 4% might not be too shabby.
John Hjorth Posted January 19 Posted January 19 Bought into EQNR.OS - Equinor ASA, Stavanger, Norway [again] today. - - - o 0 o - - - Sold it in the begining of January 2022, to pay Danish PAL-taxes in & on Danish tax deferred accounts. It diden't last long before I regretted that sale, instead of selling something else. Sold it back then after holding it since middle of August 2013.
Luke Posted January 19 Posted January 19 7 hours ago, WFF said: Buying some Maotai. Money was in China, and seems like with the chaos, buying national champion that pays around 4% might not be too shabby. I am buying 4% yielding CSU - already enough China!
73 Reds Posted January 19 Posted January 19 2 hours ago, multidecade said: Increased my FFH position today. Would like to have placed a bid for Fairfax today but our markets were closed. Maybe tomorrow.
This2ShallPass Posted January 19 Posted January 19 On 1/17/2026 at 5:13 PM, benchmark said: Sorry that I missed this. Most complaints were around bad UI, being slow, and functionalities not quite tied together. I hated using Workday as well, bad Ui and very unintuitive.
Saluki Posted January 20 Posted January 20 I got assigned some shares from puts I sold on Coupang. I'm keeping them and selling more puts 60 days out.
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