bargainman

Already happening to some degree with coding assistants like GitHub copilot and others. MS Office copilot possibly as well.. Question as it is with LLMs is how do you evaluate? testing is generally still done with human trials which are slow and very expensive. It will be a while before it moves to pure simulation if ever. I wonder about this. If what Tony Seba projects comes to pass, I wonder if oil will completely collapse along with the dairy industry among others.

Interesting interview from Karpathy (one of the AI luminaries) on what makes Elon unique

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-1929-prediction-sp500-outlook-overvalued-john-hussman-2024-3 Hmm apparently Hussman is a legendary investor. Anyone know what his returns have been?

Made me LOL. Sorry but this is the nature of tech, always has been. Gates always said he was more worried about a couple of folks in a garage cooking something up that would turn the entire industry upside down. These days a LOT of stuff is out in the open. Take a look at huggingface which hosts community and models of many many open source LLMs. This is academia driven sort of. they always were driven to publish or perish and release their stuff to get reviewed. These days though the limits are starting to show with training. It's crazy how expensive it is to train an LLM, how many GPUs and how much energy it takes. it's really only very large companies with huge budgets, GPUs and data that can afford it. Plus the data annotation process is difficult and error prone, nevermind ethically challenging. Still, once models are out, a lot of them are open source, so you can finetune for less money, and just try prompt engineering to get what you want/need. It's still day one.. early early days which is shocking but true.

It's more than that. I mean there's user level stuff but then there are things like https://www.langchain.com/langchain that create components that get chained together for different flows. It's usually not just a single statement. When you message Chat GPT for example it doesn't just take what you wrote and give it to the LLM. It goes through layers and tries to prevent attacks and uses what are called "system" level prompts to wrap your user level prompt. Plus there's no memory so it actually sends your entire conversation through the LLM every time. So there's a lot too it.

Small positions in SCHD and DGRO. Getting older I guess lol

You have to take him for what he's like which is that he's not knowledgeable enough about the industry to really see things as they were or are. He got attached to Jobs, and has/had the reputation of being 'soft' on his subject. Apple didn't like his biography of Jobs since they didn't think it was an accurate representation. In fact they 'endorsed' a different one. https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-execs-criticise-steve-jobs-biographies-2015-10 That's not to say he's a bad writer or biographer, just that he's biased and flawed like anyone.

It's amazing. I remember after 2008 and 2009 when BRK was already one of the largest most well known companies. Since then it just kept going up up up.

thank goodness! 6% is ridiculous!

Well there's a whole new field of so called "Prompt Engineering", which talks about how to properly ask questions of the LLMs to get good answers. if you are serious about using them you probably want to check that out. This is a free short course for developers but might be useful for others https://www.deeplearning.ai/short-courses/chatgpt-prompt-engineering-for-developers/ There are likely more suitable ones for the chat interfaces.

I assume you have watched the talks by Ray Kurzweil and Tony Seba?

With regards to the comments around unskilled immigrants, good luck finding nonimmigrants in the tiktok generation willing to do the menial difficult jobs like the migrant workers on farms, the dishes and floors in restaurants etc.

if you get the McDonald's app, there's always a daily 2 for 1. 2 double cheeseburgers or 6pc chicken nuggets for $3.39. plus you earn points for the occasional free ice cream cone

Well it depends sgov is 0-3 months so it really won't go down much. SHV is short term but slightly longer than that.

I get good rates from the cash in Interactive Brokers. But for my other not so fortunate brokerage accounts I use some combination of SGOV, SHV, and MINT. that said if it's in a taxable account you probably want to wait till it goes ex-div, otherwise you will be converting some part of your capital into taxable income.