Gregmal Posted June 17, 2023 Posted June 17, 2023 30 minutes ago, Jaygo said: These guys are either dumb as rocks or nefarious in their business. Raising rates makes inflation go up as it lowers production of most goods. With our demographics we need cheap money to keep raising our standard of living. Housing is going to keep rocking until the boomers die 10 years, 15 or more who knows but when you have the two largest age cohorts fighting for the same thing you get a lot of demand. In between you’ll have the Starbucks effect playing out as well. So much of the homebuyer base is filled with folks who don’t want Folgers ground coffee, they want a $2 K cup or a $7 Starbucks the same as they don’t want boomers 3500 sq/ft McMansion or the 1950s colonial on an acre. They want new build with 10 ft ceilings and a redonkulous kitchen as the home centerpiece. On the Fed, I think it’s both. You saw it firsthand amongst most of the wealthy circles last year. The hush hush “great reset” talk. Everyone cutting back spending, selling their stocks, battening down the hatches BEFORE rates hikes even started! There’s a certain nod nod wink wink element to all this corruption. So it’s great seeing all those people get left in the dust now with their cash and 5% CDs.
Dinar Posted June 17, 2023 Posted June 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Aurelius said: @Dinar @Gregmal Thanks! Wow - those are some very juicy premiums! I feel like the club is def getting sold. Present owners are hated/disliked by virtually all the fans at this point. Can't see them backtracking now and staying as owners... What are your thoughts as to why the premiums are this high? Most be the point @Spekulatius has made regarding minority shareholders, no? Edit: I sold a few puts as well. Kind of bummed I've totally slept on this ... ManU is my team!!! The premiums are that high because the stock can move 50% at any moment either up or down depending on what deal is being struck or not done at all.
Red Lion Posted June 17, 2023 Posted June 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Jaygo said: These guys are either dumb as rocks or nefarious in their business. Raising rates makes inflation go up as it lowers production of most goods. With our demographics we need cheap money to keep raising our standard of living. Housing is going to keep rocking until the boomers die 10 years, 15 or more who knows but when you have the two largest age cohorts fighting for the same thing you get a lot of demand. I feel like this is an interesting summary of the JOE investment thesis right here. The two largest age cohorts have been moving to Florida AT THE SAME TIME for the first time in history between wfh/flight from urban blight, and this trend may continue for the next decade or longer climate change be damned.
Jaygo Posted June 18, 2023 Posted June 18, 2023 Yeah same with Florida. it’s a perfect way to look at it. With people living longer you have extended the age of downsizing / dying off. most boomers have the vitality to stay in the big houses and if they have a pool or some land it’s a great way to get the grandkids knocking. so here we are, the 28 year old couple are bidding against their peers for the housing their parents won’t give up. the dick in the feds, nimbys, green libs and the rest are raising rates, blocking development and generally making the family formation a real slog. go talk to a 25 year old male. I guaranfuckintee you he has lost money on pump and dumps, weed stocks or crypto ect cause they are all looking for a big score since they have no way of competing for the same goods with an honest living. They are demoralized because they see the writing on wall, pussy is relegated to their car or when mom and dad go to the cottage or work late or even worse her parents basement. I don’t know how long this will go on but higher rates will only make it worse.
Gregmal Posted June 18, 2023 Posted June 18, 2023 Yup. And what was strange was all the very deliberate attempts to control the narrative. The blatant lying. All trying to get people to part ways with their properties. Housing is crashing. Omg mortgage volume is down. Builders are impaired. Just blatant lies or misrepresentation. Like duh mortgage volume is down, so what, rates doubled! It was the greatest crash in history and what were the numbers last year? Basically flat-modestly up for national home prices. Most decent areas actually increased? Meanwhile really behind the scenes you still see crazy demand and still see JPM raising money for SFH and BX raising money for residential. I do think it’s been an effort to control the resources. Rents are cheap currently compared to owning which is why rents aren’t going down anytime soon. But much of this has been a total farce and the morons at the Fed are either ignorant academic schmucks or basically attempting to rig the game like they did in 2007.
competitive-advantage Posted June 18, 2023 Posted June 18, 2023 On 6/17/2023 at 4:35 PM, Spekulatius said: UNH and ELV are quite similar business. UNH trades at a considerable premium ELV and the rest of the health care space and at least for the UNH- ELV pair, the valuation premium for UNH over RLV seems too high for me. UNH has great operational performance and the stock has responded accordingly which is one of the reasons for the premium. Health care insurers are incredible business due to their cash generation ability. Their liabilities are short term in nature and much of the business is not insurance at all, but more of a fee for service or subscription business. It is a way better business than Pharma in general, imo. Elective procedures are procedures for non- acute conditions and there is a fine line to absolutely essential procedures. The fact that the incidence rate of elective procedure rises could be an indication of a weakening labor market and fear of layoffs. People often get medical stuff done when they think they may lose their health insurance temporarily due to getting laid off , but that’s just my hunch. As for ELV, the part that’s missing are insider purchases - I have not seen any. Insiders didn’t even buy in summer 2020 (when I bought most of my shares) and that would have been a very good time to do so, so maybe their timing acumen isn’t that great. Thank you very much. This was really helpful. I also read something about that some elective procedures were postponed because of Covid-19, but your assumptions makes great sense to me too.
Castanza Posted June 21, 2023 Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) small add to OXY edit: MSGE Edited June 21, 2023 by Castanza
Jaygo Posted June 21, 2023 Posted June 21, 2023 Watering the weeds today. aritzia, smartcentres, small bits of each. Man I’ve had some real dogs lately. Woof throw in bti and most of my “best” ideas are on a pretty ugly slope in the wrong direction.
Saluki Posted June 21, 2023 Posted June 21, 2023 Trimmed a little NETI in my retirement account and bought some OXY and PXD. I should have trimmed NETI two days ago on the merger news, but when I worked out the conversion ratio for Cadeler shares, I got $14.70 and NETI was trading at $13.50 and I literally said to myself "No, they still owe me another dollar." So now they owe me $2, LOL.
rkbabang Posted June 21, 2023 Posted June 21, 2023 On 6/9/2023 at 3:58 PM, rkbabang said: On 6/9/2023 at 3:19 PM, Sweet said: Why today? I'm becoming more and more sure that BTC is going to be the crypto you want to hold. I don't see XTZ going anywhere, I originally bought it at the ICO and have held and staked it since, but I don't see any reason for XTZ over say ETH, ADA, etc... long term. I think ETH has a future, but I can't see why the SEC would say that ADA is a security but ETH is not. I think ETH is going to be targeted by the SEC at some point, probably soon. And when that happens its price will drop relative to BTC and I'd lose my chance to convert at a favorable ratio. So today I made the decision to do it. Even before this business with the SEC this week I had already made the decision that I want to hold a lot more BTC than ETH. I've been watching the ETH/BTC pair for a few weeks and I just got sick of waiting. I'm certainly glad I did that on the 9th. The value of ETH has been decreasing wrt BTC ever since. I expect this trend to continue. ETH has value and will continue to have value, but the long term potential is many orders of magnitudes less than BTC.
Ulti Posted June 21, 2023 Posted June 21, 2023 On 6/12/2023 at 12:19 PM, Gregmal said: Yea that’s why 10x or whatever territory we are getting into is important. You’ll have issues but eventually start getting buried in cash. With no issues this is a 20-25x type of company. https://www.wsj.com/articles/at-3m-lawsuits-threaten-to-transform-the-company-1fb5dc3e?st=s51jdy4vqmh6506&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink As an aside , I opened a small position
rkbabang Posted June 22, 2023 Posted June 22, 2023 I bought a few MSGE JAN $40 calls yesterday and today to add a little leverage to my position.
Viking Posted June 22, 2023 Posted June 22, 2023 Interest rate sensitive stocks in Canada are cheap again. Re-establishing positions in a collection of these: big banks, telecom, pipelines, energy, reits. Average dividend yield is around 6%.
Castanza Posted June 22, 2023 Posted June 22, 2023 43 minutes ago, rkbabang said: I bought a few MSGE JAN $40 calls yesterday and today to add a little leverage to my position. This premiums looked a little pricey no?
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