What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

Yea that’s why 10x or whatever territory we are getting into is important. You’ll have issues but eventually start getting buried in cash. With no issues this is a 20-25x type of company. 

[longlake95]

TRZ - event arb 

[throw123]

oxy and DG

[bizaro86]

1 hour ago, longlake95 said:

TRZ - event arb 

Are you talking about Air Transat here? I thought that deal was cancelled?

[longlake95]

Maybe, another player emerges…

[Dinar]

Monarch cement

[dealraker]

5 hours ago, Castanza said:

 

Yeah but DD has averaged like 3% since 2013 lol I guess with MMM you get a nice divy, but there is no guarantee that stays around. Could go either way, but every time I get invest in stocks with litigation ongoing i get cucked. 

Me too.  

[NnnnotSoSmart]

On 6/9/2023 at 5:13 PM, Gregmal said:

Nothing high level. Just seems to be one of those every once in a while setups where you have a really good, resilient business getting sludged up by a temporary issue. Balance sheet is solid, trades at a low multiple. Just seems like an easy thing to buy a bit here and maybe somewhat lower and then just put it away for a while. 

3M - Elephants in the room - lawsuits. Ear plug (200,000+) lawsuits and "forever"  chemicals.  Forever chemicals doesn't sound temporary.

All sounds so scary.  How does one quantify liabilities? Thanks,

Edited June 13, 2023 by NnnnotSoSmart

[Gregmal]

59 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

3M - Elephants in the room - lawsuits. Ear plug (200,000+) lawsuits and "forever"  chemicals.  Forever chemicals doesn't sound temporary.

All sounds so scary.  How does one quantify liabilities? Thanks,

Just gotta make some loose assumptions and be comfortable with the unknowable. Not everyone is capable of that.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

3M - Elephants in the room - lawsuits. Ear plug (200,000+) lawsuits and "forever"  chemicals.  Forever chemicals doesn't sound temporary.

All sounds so scary.  How does one quantify liabilities? Thanks,

The other issue with MMM is that the business has stagnated for years. They got some revenue boost from inflation in 2021 but besides that, their earning shave been flatish for years.

They did the Neogen spinoff transaction but even accounting for this, there just has not been any growth for many years.

[Luca]

Added to Evolution AB @122,24€ on gettex stock exchange

[Saluki]

Added some OXY and STNG on the dip.  

[Spekulatius]

Bought some Fuji Corp 7605 (Japan). Tire discounter in japan. Asian century stocks wrote it up, but I bought it before. Deep value with decent growth. Bought just a few shares though.

[Spekulatius]

On 6/1/2023 at 6:40 AM, Luca said:

Starter in Investor AB

@Luca given your preference for compounder Holdcos you should really look into MBB.DE imo. Management is a but quirky but the fellow running it has achieved decent results and it is cheap based on NAV. I have a few shares. Not worth a large bet for me, but certainly good enough for a few shares.

[Luca]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

@Luca given your preference for compounder Holdcos you should really look into MBB.DE imo. Management is a but quirky but the fellow running it has achieved decent results and it is cheap based on NAV. I have a few shares. Not worth a large bet for me, but certainly good enough for a few shares.

Nice, i will have a look

[NnnnotSoSmart]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The other issue with MMM is that the business has stagnated for years. They got some revenue boost from inflation in 2021 but besides that, their earning shave been flatish for years.

They did the Neogen spinoff transaction but even accounting for this, there just has not been any growth for many years.

Lack of revenue/earnings growth doesn't mean it's not worth owning. Could still be worth more than it's selling for.  I don't know, but I like all of their products. 

Their margins have been consistently good over the years.

The world's still gonna need Sticky notes and Scotch Brite pads.

[Gregmal]

You aint buying 3M for growth and you're not buying it because its clean on the liability side. You're buying it because its stable, irreplaceable American brands trading at 10x with roughly $40B of liability priced in. 

 

One of the most head scratching things I repeatedly see with investments is when folks look at the opportunity, and then declare the reason for the opportunity, as the reason not to take advantage of the opportunity. Heard it in 2013 that "you just dont know the magnitude of the London Whale losses" at JPM. Well, yea, thats why its at $32 a share, duh!

 

If you didnt have the liability side, this business wouldnt be trading at 10x. 

[Spekulatius]

Also joined the deep value crowd buying some shares in SOM. L (Somero) which trades by appointment. My orders executed on different days in separate accounts. A few shares only since it's hard to get a read on business direction, but seems too cheap to ignore.

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@Luca given your preference for compounder Holdcos you should really look into MBB.DE imo. Management is a but quirky but the fellow running it has achieved decent results and it is cheap based on NAV. I have a few shares. Not worth a large bet for me, but certainly good enough for a few shares.

Spek, why not worth a large bet?  Thank you.

[WayWardCloud]

Added to Liberty Broadband. My one conviction that hasn't gone up in this rally so relatively speaking it's even cheaper now. I just don't see what the market sees...

 

Below is management telling you they're planning to 2x-3x your money in 3-5 years

 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by WayWardCloud

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

Spek, why not worth a large bet?  Thank you.

None, I could find really. The CEO Constantin Wanger has shown some skill buying some companies cheap and selling them dearly.

I can find some rumbling about Vorwerk, which MBB purchased and then floated for 46 Euro and it’s now trading for 11 and change as it has underperformed. It was overvalued  when it was IPO’d and some people are oilseed and blame MBB. Vorwerk is really a construction company that does mostly energy and energy infrastructure projects  and it was sold as a green energy play. hard to blame MBB for that though.

 

MBB has done a better job than other Holdings creating value faith Mittelstand or Public co acquisitions. I probably add to my small holdings now that I think about it. 

[Aurel]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

None, I could find really. The CEO Constantin Wanger has shown some skill buying some companies cheap and selling them dearly.

I can find some rumbling about Vorwerk, which MBB purchased and then floated for 46 Euro and it’s now trading for 11 and change as it has underperformed. It was overvalued  when it was IPO’d and some people are oilseed and blame MBB. Vorwerk is really a construction company that does mostly energy and energy infrastructure projects  and it was sold as a green energy play. hard to blame MBB for that though.

 

MBB has done a better job than other Holdings creating value faith Mittelstand or Public co acquisitions. I probably add to my small holdings now that I think about it. 

 

I like and hold MBB, too.

 

Maybe we'll see a squeeze-out at some time? Management owns already a lot of stock and is still buying.

I also had a look at Gesco.DE, since it's more diversified and it's quite cheap, too. But I think MBB.DE has the better management and better holdings.

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Aurel

[Paarslaars]

16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Bought some Fuji Corp 7605 (Japan). Tire discounter in japan. Asian century stocks wrote it up, but I bought it before. Deep value with decent growth. Bought just a few shares though.

Interesting find, might join you on this one, going to take a deeper look.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Interesting find, might join you on this one, going to take a deeper look.

It’s like Tirerack but in Japan. They have some stores, but focus is on online. I actually had found this one using screening a while ago, but never bought it until someone mentioned it on Twitter with a short writeup and I connected some dots. It’s a business that has shown some decent organic growth over time, which is rare in Japan. Cash flows are pretty lumpy though.

 

Edit : just be aware that the recent writeup from Asian Century stocks seems to have moved the stock. The stock was somewhat weak after earnings, presumable due to their guidance (which some Japanese companies set very conservatively). I think they are likely to beat the guidance just looking at the number trends so far, but could be wrong.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Aurel said:

 

I like and hold MBB, too.

 

Maybe we'll see a squeeze-out at some time? Management owns already a lot of stock and is still buying.

I also had a look at Gesco.DE, since it's more diversified and it's quite cheap, too. But I think MBB.DE has the better management and better holdings.

 

There are several “Mittelstand”  Holding cos listed in Germany but MBB seem by far the best managed. Gesco and Indus are other ones, but they are often invested in value trap business ( small car suppliers etc ) and seem to overpay in general. Gesco’s largest holding is Dorrenberg (specialty/ niche steel) which isn’t the greatest business either, but at least seems decently run. They are moving away from car supplier focus to hopefully owning better business.