Castanza Posted June 12, 2023 Posted June 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, RedLion said: I know there are talks of technologies to literally skim them from drinking water. Nationwide. Worldwide maybe. If this was just the earplug thing I’d be loading up on margin now, but this is hard to handicap. Same, I've always had my eye on this Co. But it seems like this will be a class action punching bag for the next decade or more.
Gregmal Posted June 12, 2023 Posted June 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, Castanza said: Same, I've always had my eye on this Co. But it seems like this will be a class action punching bag for the next decade or more. Hasn’t this been true of tobacco now for like 4 decades? I was talking with someone on this recently and another prevailing thought was simply the 30,000 ft view acknowledging that hey, DuPont is still around when they’re like the king of liability related issues. So it really just comes down to price. Which here, is definitely reasonable.
Ulti Posted June 12, 2023 Posted June 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Hasn’t this been true of tobacco now for like 4 decades? I was talking with someone on this recently and another prevailing thought was simply the 30,000 ft view acknowledging that hey, DuPont is still around when they’re like the king of liability related issues. So it really just comes down to price. Which here, is definitely reasonable. One thing that has not been mentioned is the healthcare spinoff that should take place by years end... I think that MMM will retain 12% of the new company and will also slowly sell what they retain.... This could bring in some extra cash but the healthcare division has been struggling over the past few years,with shrinking margins.
Red Lion Posted June 12, 2023 Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Hasn’t this been true of tobacco now for like 4 decades? I was talking with someone on this recently and another prevailing thought was simply the 30,000 ft view acknowledging that hey, DuPont is still around when they’re like the king of liability related issues. So it really just comes down to price. Which here, is definitely reasonable. I remember reading somewhere that litigation outcomes are typically over discounted into stocks and it can be a great strategy to buy stocks selling down on litigation concerns. I do think there’s been a bit of an inflection point recently with larger jury verdicts, huge settlements (look at Jpm settling these tangential claims about Epstein for hundreds of millions, crazy), some plaintiff friendly rulings re: Texas two step bankruptcy. Dupont was fortunate to be the king of liability back then versus now. 100%. My personal feeling is that what used to be a winning strategy, just like spin-offs, might lose some of its appeal in a developing society where corporations get taken down by mass tort and other legal liability. Two examples of recent years are the Purdue pharma and pacific gas and electric. I think this stock probably does great, and maybe does quite poorly. Maybe the play is to buy leaps, calls and puts. Edited June 12, 2023 by RedLion
Castanza Posted June 12, 2023 Posted June 12, 2023 30 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Hasn’t this been true of tobacco now for like 4 decades? I was talking with someone on this recently and another prevailing thought was simply the 30,000 ft view acknowledging that hey, DuPont is still around when they’re like the king of liability related issues. So it really just comes down to price. Which here, is definitely reasonable. Yeah but DD has averaged like 3% since 2013 lol I guess with MMM you get a nice divy, but there is no guarantee that stays around. Could go either way, but every time I get invest in stocks with litigation ongoing i get cucked.
Gregmal Posted June 12, 2023 Posted June 12, 2023 Yea that’s why 10x or whatever territory we are getting into is important. You’ll have issues but eventually start getting buried in cash. With no issues this is a 20-25x type of company.
bizaro86 Posted June 12, 2023 Posted June 12, 2023 1 hour ago, longlake95 said: TRZ - event arb Are you talking about Air Transat here? I thought that deal was cancelled?
dealraker Posted June 12, 2023 Posted June 12, 2023 5 hours ago, Castanza said: Yeah but DD has averaged like 3% since 2013 lol I guess with MMM you get a nice divy, but there is no guarantee that stays around. Could go either way, but every time I get invest in stocks with litigation ongoing i get cucked. Me too.
NnnnotSoSmart Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 (edited) On 6/9/2023 at 5:13 PM, Gregmal said: Nothing high level. Just seems to be one of those every once in a while setups where you have a really good, resilient business getting sludged up by a temporary issue. Balance sheet is solid, trades at a low multiple. Just seems like an easy thing to buy a bit here and maybe somewhat lower and then just put it away for a while. 3M - Elephants in the room - lawsuits. Ear plug (200,000+) lawsuits and "forever" chemicals. Forever chemicals doesn't sound temporary. All sounds so scary. How does one quantify liabilities? Thanks, Edited June 13, 2023 by NnnnotSoSmart
Gregmal Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 59 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said: 3M - Elephants in the room - lawsuits. Ear plug (200,000+) lawsuits and "forever" chemicals. Forever chemicals doesn't sound temporary. All sounds so scary. How does one quantify liabilities? Thanks, Just gotta make some loose assumptions and be comfortable with the unknowable. Not everyone is capable of that.
Spekulatius Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 1 hour ago, NnnnotSoSmart said: 3M - Elephants in the room - lawsuits. Ear plug (200,000+) lawsuits and "forever" chemicals. Forever chemicals doesn't sound temporary. All sounds so scary. How does one quantify liabilities? Thanks, The other issue with MMM is that the business has stagnated for years. They got some revenue boost from inflation in 2021 but besides that, their earning shave been flatish for years. They did the Neogen spinoff transaction but even accounting for this, there just has not been any growth for many years.
Luke Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 Added to Evolution AB @122,24€ on gettex stock exchange
Spekulatius Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 Bought some Fuji Corp 7605 (Japan). Tire discounter in japan. Asian century stocks wrote it up, but I bought it before. Deep value with decent growth. Bought just a few shares though.
Spekulatius Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 On 6/1/2023 at 6:40 AM, Luca said: Starter in Investor AB @Luca given your preference for compounder Holdcos you should really look into MBB.DE imo. Management is a but quirky but the fellow running it has achieved decent results and it is cheap based on NAV. I have a few shares. Not worth a large bet for me, but certainly good enough for a few shares.
Luke Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Spekulatius said: @Luca given your preference for compounder Holdcos you should really look into MBB.DE imo. Management is a but quirky but the fellow running it has achieved decent results and it is cheap based on NAV. I have a few shares. Not worth a large bet for me, but certainly good enough for a few shares. Nice, i will have a look
NnnnotSoSmart Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: The other issue with MMM is that the business has stagnated for years. They got some revenue boost from inflation in 2021 but besides that, their earning shave been flatish for years. They did the Neogen spinoff transaction but even accounting for this, there just has not been any growth for many years. Lack of revenue/earnings growth doesn't mean it's not worth owning. Could still be worth more than it's selling for. I don't know, but I like all of their products. Their margins have been consistently good over the years. The world's still gonna need Sticky notes and Scotch Brite pads.
Gregmal Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 You aint buying 3M for growth and you're not buying it because its clean on the liability side. You're buying it because its stable, irreplaceable American brands trading at 10x with roughly $40B of liability priced in. One of the most head scratching things I repeatedly see with investments is when folks look at the opportunity, and then declare the reason for the opportunity, as the reason not to take advantage of the opportunity. Heard it in 2013 that "you just dont know the magnitude of the London Whale losses" at JPM. Well, yea, thats why its at $32 a share, duh! If you didnt have the liability side, this business wouldnt be trading at 10x.
Spekulatius Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 Also joined the deep value crowd buying some shares in SOM. L (Somero) which trades by appointment. My orders executed on different days in separate accounts. A few shares only since it's hard to get a read on business direction, but seems too cheap to ignore.
Dinar Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 3 hours ago, Spekulatius said: @Luca given your preference for compounder Holdcos you should really look into MBB.DE imo. Management is a but quirky but the fellow running it has achieved decent results and it is cheap based on NAV. I have a few shares. Not worth a large bet for me, but certainly good enough for a few shares. Spek, why not worth a large bet? Thank you.
WayWardCloud Posted June 13, 2023 Posted June 13, 2023 (edited) Added to Liberty Broadband. My one conviction that hasn't gone up in this rally so relatively speaking it's even cheaper now. I just don't see what the market sees... Below is management telling you they're planning to 2x-3x your money in 3-5 years Edited June 13, 2023 by WayWardCloud
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