What are you buying today?

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

Spek, why not worth a large bet?  Thank you.

None, I could find really. The CEO Constantin Wanger has shown some skill buying some companies cheap and selling them dearly.

I can find some rumbling about Vorwerk, which MBB purchased and then floated for 46 Euro and it’s now trading for 11 and change as it has underperformed. It was overvalued  when it was IPO’d and some people are oilseed and blame MBB. Vorwerk is really a construction company that does mostly energy and energy infrastructure projects  and it was sold as a green energy play. hard to blame MBB for that though.

 

MBB has done a better job than other Holdings creating value faith Mittelstand or Public co acquisitions. I probably add to my small holdings now that I think about it. 

[Aurel]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

None, I could find really. The CEO Constantin Wanger has shown some skill buying some companies cheap and selling them dearly.

I can find some rumbling about Vorwerk, which MBB purchased and then floated for 46 Euro and it’s now trading for 11 and change as it has underperformed. It was overvalued  when it was IPO’d and some people are oilseed and blame MBB. Vorwerk is really a construction company that does mostly energy and energy infrastructure projects  and it was sold as a green energy play. hard to blame MBB for that though.

 

MBB has done a better job than other Holdings creating value faith Mittelstand or Public co acquisitions. I probably add to my small holdings now that I think about it. 

 

I like and hold MBB, too.

 

Maybe we'll see a squeeze-out at some time? Management owns already a lot of stock and is still buying.

I also had a look at Gesco.DE, since it's more diversified and it's quite cheap, too. But I think MBB.DE has the better management and better holdings.

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Aurel

[Paarslaars]

16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Bought some Fuji Corp 7605 (Japan). Tire discounter in japan. Asian century stocks wrote it up, but I bought it before. Deep value with decent growth. Bought just a few shares though.

Interesting find, might join you on this one, going to take a deeper look.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Interesting find, might join you on this one, going to take a deeper look.

It’s like Tirerack but in Japan. They have some stores, but focus is on online. I actually had found this one using screening a while ago, but never bought it until someone mentioned it on Twitter with a short writeup and I connected some dots. It’s a business that has shown some decent organic growth over time, which is rare in Japan. Cash flows are pretty lumpy though.

 

Edit : just be aware that the recent writeup from Asian Century stocks seems to have moved the stock. The stock was somewhat weak after earnings, presumable due to their guidance (which some Japanese companies set very conservatively). I think they are likely to beat the guidance just looking at the number trends so far, but could be wrong.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Aurel said:

 

I like and hold MBB, too.

 

Maybe we'll see a squeeze-out at some time? Management owns already a lot of stock and is still buying.

I also had a look at Gesco.DE, since it's more diversified and it's quite cheap, too. But I think MBB.DE has the better management and better holdings.

 

There are several “Mittelstand”  Holding cos listed in Germany but MBB seem by far the best managed. Gesco and Indus are other ones, but they are often invested in value trap business ( small car suppliers etc ) and seem to overpay in general. Gesco’s largest holding is Dorrenberg (specialty/ niche steel) which isn’t the greatest business either, but at least seems decently run. They are moving away from car supplier focus to hopefully owning better business.

[Paarslaars]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It’s like Tirerack but in Japan. They have some stores, but focus is on online. I actually had found this one using screening a while ago, but never bought it until someone mentioned it on Twitter with a short writeup and I connected some dots. It’s a business that has shown some decent organic growth over time, which is rare in Japan. Cash flows are pretty lumpy though.

 

Edit : just be aware that the recent writeup from Asian Century stocks seems to have moved the stock. The stock was somewhat weak after earnings, presumable due to their guidance (which some Japanese companies set very conservatively). I think they are likely to beat the guidance just looking at the number trends so far, but could be wrong.

 

I noticed the recent run up, still looking for a good entry point.

[Luke]

Opened a position in Teqnion AB 

[frommi]

150$ TSLA puts DEC23.

[thowed]

21 minutes ago, Luca said:

Opened a position in Teqnion AB 

 

Did you get inspiration from Chris Mayer - I think it's one of his serial acquirers.  It's on my list to look at at some point.

[Luke]

15 minutes ago, thowed said:

 

Did you get inspiration from Chris Mayer - I think it's one of his serial acquirers.  It's on my list to look at at some point.

Friend of mine send me this name a year ago, i pushed the idea down, reports where not available easily, couldnt find any write ups. Few weeks ago i watched the interview with the CXO, was quite impressed, then i was recommended chris mayer who still owns it (twitter thread from CXO about a new acquisition today)-->

Edited June 14, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

Continued to read about it and opened a starter today, its not cheap but also a long runway, will just let it set in my account and follow the business over time

[Malmqky]

23 hours ago, Luca said:

Continued to read about it and opened a starter today, its not cheap but also a long runway, will just let it set in my account and follow the business over time

So obviously you’re a fan of holdcos that compound book value at superior rates. Does the discount to NAV that these companies inherently deal with bother you at all?  

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

So obviously you’re a fan of holdcos that compound book value at superior rates. Does the discount to NAV that these companies inherently deal with bother you at all?  

Doesnt bother me one bit, i get more earnings power for a cheaper price, they continue to compound at high rates, win win. Buying back their shares etc

[CorpRaider]

Recently bought some CLPR, SAVE, K, WFC-L for grandmother (thanks to poster who alerted me to existence).

[Dinar]

NEN.  Sold June 23rd MANU puts with a $21 strike for $1.15 each.

[Aurelius]

@dinar

Do you know at what price are Manu expected to be sold for? Ie how are you thinking about this? 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Aurelius

[Dinar]

34 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

@dinar

Do you know at what price are Manu expected to be sold for? Ie how are you thinking about this? 

So, Gregmal is a lot more knowledgeable than I am on this subject.  My guess is that it will most likely to be sold to Sheikh Jassim for around $33-37 per share.  However, my bet is that nothing will happen for the next seven days, and I felt that I got paid very well for the risk - $1.15 per option.  Yes, if the Sheikh walks or club gets sold to Ratcliffe, the stock probably goes to $14-$17, but I doubt that it will happen next week.  I have been writing at the money options on this since January...

[Gregmal]

Yea if you're long, or a buyer of MANU here, you are solely betting on a full takeover deal with Sheikh. They've tried manufacturing a lot of leverage, but for the reasons Ive detailed in the thread, see no other reasonable alternative in terms of outcomes. Price doesnt matter. It will be higher than this. 

[Spekulatius]

Added a bit more $ELV in several accounts on the dip a few days ago, caused by $UNH mentioning more selective procedures on the GS conference.

[competitive-advantage]

14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Added a bit more $ELV in several accounts on the dip a few days ago, caused by $UNH mentioning more selective procedures on the GS conference.

Will you explain why ELV is the better choice? And what are selective procedures? I have looked into UNH recently and the pharma industry to get more knowledge about this subject.

[Aurelius]

@Dinar @Gregmal Thanks!

Wow - those are some very juicy premiums!

I feel like the club is def getting sold. Present owners are hated/disliked by virtually all the fans at this point. Can't see them backtracking now and staying as owners...

 

What are your thoughts as to why the premiums are this high? 

Most be the point @Spekulatius has made regarding minority shareholders, no? 

 

Edit: I sold a few puts as well. Kind of bummed I've totally slept on this ... ManU is my team!!! 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Aurelius

[dealraker]

In recent times, last 2-3 months or so as more money comes in than goes out:

 

BN

OWL

DPZ

CBE

ICE

NSC

LHX

 

And yes I agree with Parsad as to recession.  But I do what I know to do and just keep doing it.  

Edited June 17, 2023 by dealraker

[Gregmal]

22 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

@Dinar @Gregmal Thanks!

Wow - those are some very juicy premiums!

I feel like the club is def getting sold. Present owners are hated/disliked by virtually all the fans at this point. Can't see them backtracking now and staying as owners...

 

What are your thoughts as to why the premiums are this high? 

Most be the point @Spekulatius has made regarding minority shareholders, no? 

 

Edit: I sold a few puts as well. Kind of bummed I've totally slept on this ... ManU is my team!!! 

You definitely have to be a little careful selling the puts this far along in the process because an outcome is really your enemy there. But yea, these are the sort of gold mines you live for. Its why you need to be constantly looking for opportunities instead of whining about the market or the Fed or whatever. Been hitting this since late last year. The volatility alone is pretty awesome. The puts have consistently had $1-2 on the premiums for 5-10% out of the money 2-4 week expirations. Very similar to CLF in 2021. 

[dealraker]

Although off topic here maybe, I also think Greg is right in so many ways.  Seems the simplistic mode is too simple, that if we have inflation just crush the economy with rates that scare the living hell out of everyone.  Really?  We had years of thriving economy where the fed was so afraid to do anything even up to 1/16th % interest rate rise or whatnot, then obvious issues relating to all kinds of things jamming up the world...and that's when you raise rates?  Really?  Really? Really?  Oh my!

 

Hell, why not just shut down all the railroads for 6 months and set the prime to 20%?  Then we can go back to start again, like 100 years ago or something.

 

So higher interest rates solve the housing issue?  Yeaboy, got it.  Solved!  

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Aurelius said:

@Dinar @Gregmal Thanks!

Wow - those are some very juicy premiums!

I feel like the club is def getting sold. Present owners are hated/disliked by virtually all the fans at this point. Can't see them backtracking now and staying as owners...

 

What are your thoughts as to why the premiums are this high? 

Most be the point @Spekulatius has made regarding minority shareholders, no? 

 

Edit: I sold a few puts as well. Kind of bummed I've totally slept on this ... ManU is my team!!! 

Do we think the Glazers actually care about being hated though? I mean there is A LOT of hated franchise owners out there that stick around for a long time. Dolan and Jerry Jones come to mind here in the US. 
 

I think if they choose to sell its entirely about the money. If they really cared about image and making a better name for themselves they would likely find a way to sell to Ratcliff. Bringing Manu back under the British fold would be a positive image booster with die hard Brit fans. Brit tradition/heritage angle etc. Reminds me somewhat of the LIV golf situation. I don’t think they care about any of that and will simply go with the highest offer if they choose to sell at all.