Aurelius

Peak comedy:

Seen on twitter: Hopefully not true: BREAKING: Howard Lutnick was involved in reversing FIFA’s red card decision on American player Balogun, per POLITICO

What you should complain about is the USA red card getting overturned. Every team knew you could not overturn a decision after the match in this world cup. This was the policy. And believe me through out WC history there has been some terrible red card mistakes. They happen. Though it might not have been a red card... the ref and VAR room decided it was red. End of story as per the policy. If you want to make it possible to correct mistakes then fine. (although with VAR this should be way less of a problem) But make it a policy before the tournament starts. There have been yellow cards given that were not yellow. Mistakes happen. Accumulate enough yellow cards and you'll miss a match... This smells like some kind of corruption. Crazy really.

You guys need to shut up lol If you don't watch or haven't played football, you really shouldn't complain/critique the refereeing! Think about it - that makes no sense. Brazil had two clear penalties. It does not matter if there was a chance or not for Brazil to score had it not been a penalty. Both were fouls inside the box and thus a penalty. The second one was really clumsy and just bad defending by Norway. A really stupid penalty to give away. It was a penalty nontheless.

@Gregmal I understand your feeling. The problem is though: offside is a black and white decision just like if the ball is inside the goal or not. Is what it is. Also the refs and the VAR room know the rules much better than the public and it's their job to apply the rules obv. Wrt offside I've heard it mentioned that they should/could change the rule to if the feet are offside or not. I tend to agree that might be better. Still we'd be having the issue regarding centimers offside, but seem better to look at the feet rather than the body. Easier to see and understand.

Love F1!

Unfortunately here we can absolutely blame the new regs! It won't be great as the drivers won't be able to go flat out in two of the most important corners due to saving energy instead (so they can go faster in a straight line!). It's so fucking crazy and ridiculous. Hopefully they'll get the regs sorted out as soon as possible. Hopefully going back to v8 eventually.

You can only suggest getting rid of the offside rule if you actually are not a fan/player. It's a totally ridiculous suggestion - sorry. There are def issues I'd like to get sorted. Like time wasting, cheating, professional freekicks (I'd like these yellowcard to give a 10 min suspension as they are so effective to kill the game). Having said all that I've thought the refereeing has been very good so far. One thing to keep in mind is that it's impossible for the referees to get it all right. Because they are human of course, but also because everybody never really agrees even after the fact with all camera angles if it indeed was a freekick, penalty or a yellow or red card. It's a continuous discussion after every match it seems.

thanks

@SharperDingaan What makes you certain we'll see a material change in the coming days?

META

YES! These days the "racism" card is called very easily! I believe Guy is Jewish. Being pro Israel is just a lot of very bad words for a lot of people. Pointing out that there is an immigration problem is also racism etc. Is what it is... -- Guy Spier always seemed thoughtful and kind. Wishing him and his family all the best.

Bought a home some 13 years ago. Proved to be a fantastic investment. 40% downpayment; interest only loan. Refinanced within 3 years = got the downpayment plus a bit out. Net investment negative! Present LTV 40%ish. Home up appr. 150%. Tax free if/when I sell. Yearly expenses have been less than half compared to renting. And still are. Fantastic neighbourhood; great city. Neighbourhood has improved while living here and will continue to do so - although not at the same rate. So will the city. Of course this opportunity not present for current buyers. Easy to take for things for granted, but important to reflect and be grateful.

@yesman182 could you please link the mentioned article?

Not true! Americans are polite and well liked. Trump on the other hand... not well respected; laughing stock; disliked; etc. Sure that's true. But Trump exhibits some of the worst character traits: constant blatant lying; arrogant, petulant; bully; narcissist; and I could go on. But let's hear what Munger had to say:

Truly bizarre watching functioning grown adults going all in on MAGA (or any political block) and then becoming complete loyalists and just suspending all critical thinking. These people are more loyal to their ideology then their own children and family. So fucking bizarre! Since this a corner of the internet has heroes like Mr. Munger I'd advice to read up on what Munger said about intense ideology!

Musk is absolutely losing it I'm afraid. His brand is taking a terrible hit at the moment. Will be interesting to see how tesla sales hold up. He is making lots of enemies. Would not be surprised if he gets whacked. @Gregmal it's okay to be a republican while at the same time calling out shitty behaviour. Team politics is stupid.

Pabrai knows how to make money! Great marketer! I like his lectures. Seems to me he is living life on his own terms. Good for him. More people should do that. I remember a few years back being very surprised his returns weren't better than they actually are. Does anyone have his 5-10-15-20 year returns?

@Dinar @Gregmal Thanks! Wow - those are some very juicy premiums! I feel like the club is def getting sold. Present owners are hated/disliked by virtually all the fans at this point. Can't see them backtracking now and staying as owners... What are your thoughts as to why the premiums are this high? Most be the point @Spekulatius has made regarding minority shareholders, no? Edit: I sold a few puts as well. Kind of bummed I've totally slept on this ... ManU is my team!!!

@dinar Do you know at what price are Manu expected to be sold for? Ie how are you thinking about this?

AMZN is a steal! They obviously have a variety of different businesses. And as they are still investing heavily in growth you are not seeing the results on the bottomline. You'd need to value each component to get to a valuation. As a shortcut I've always thought it made sense to look at EV/gross profit as they do a lot of their investing through their PNL below the gross profit line. I believe Bill Miller has mentioned this as well. AMZN hasn't been this cheap (on EV/gross profit) since early 2015 before they broke out AWS in their financials. They are a powerhouse today compared to 2015. And do a lot more high margin business (AWS, Ads, 3rd party, subscription) today. There was a period in 2014-2015 when it traded at these levels we are seeing now. Then you have to get all the way back to 2009.

Unfortunately, the same where I live. It's really rather unfortunate for the investor. And I don't see the benefit for the society either. How is it better that I invest in company B rather than company A? I have to assume it's because of less developed "investment culture". Oh well...

Interesting! So you can sell a specific lot? Makes a lot of sense that you should be allowed to do that. Otherwise it seems like a pretty bad deal to add to a position when you're up a lot. I don't think that is possible where I live. @John Hjorth can you help here?

Here’s a dynamic I hadn’t thought of before. Please correct if I am wrong. Example Buy 100 shares at $100. Total investment $10.000. Price goes up a lot over time. Valuation gets cheap and I invest another $10.000 and get 10 shares. New price per share is $1000. Previous average price per share: $100 New average price per share: $181.8 Total investment: $20.000 Total shares: 110 Times passes and the price does another double to $2000 per share. I go to sell the 10 shares I added. Sell amount: 10*2000= $20.000 Amount invested: 10*181.8 = $1818 (shares sold*average price per share) Profit: $18.182 (20.000-1.818) Taxes at 40%: $7273 Money I can spend: 20.000-7.273 = $12.727 (So you invest 10K. It doubles. After tax you are left with 2.7K) VS investing in a new company Invest 10k Doubles to 20k I sell and pay 4k in taxes Money I can spend 16k Other cons of adding to my position: If I for whatever reason want to sell I can only do so while incurring tax payments. Example: I sell the amount I added to the position for the same price, i.e. $10.000. But now I owe $3.273 in taxes. A disaster outcome really. Even worse if I sell at a loss on my added-on position. I still owe taxes as oppose to a tax credit had it been a new position. I hadn’t given this much thought before. Seems important when you have big winners in your portfolio. Just writing it down and wanted to share my observations. Am I thinking about this the right way?