What are you buying today?

[Paarslaars]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It’s like Tirerack but in Japan. They have some stores, but focus is on online. I actually had found this one using screening a while ago, but never bought it until someone mentioned it on Twitter with a short writeup and I connected some dots. It’s a business that has shown some decent organic growth over time, which is rare in Japan. Cash flows are pretty lumpy though.

 

Edit : just be aware that the recent writeup from Asian Century stocks seems to have moved the stock. The stock was somewhat weak after earnings, presumable due to their guidance (which some Japanese companies set very conservatively). I think they are likely to beat the guidance just looking at the number trends so far, but could be wrong.

 

I noticed the recent run up, still looking for a good entry point.

[Luke]

Opened a position in Teqnion AB 

[frommi]

150$ TSLA puts DEC23.

[thowed]

21 minutes ago, Luca said:

Opened a position in Teqnion AB 

 

Did you get inspiration from Chris Mayer - I think it's one of his serial acquirers.  It's on my list to look at at some point.

[Luke]

15 minutes ago, thowed said:

 

Did you get inspiration from Chris Mayer - I think it's one of his serial acquirers.  It's on my list to look at at some point.

Friend of mine send me this name a year ago, i pushed the idea down, reports where not available easily, couldnt find any write ups. Few weeks ago i watched the interview with the CXO, was quite impressed, then i was recommended chris mayer who still owns it (twitter thread from CXO about a new acquisition today)-->

Edited June 14, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

Continued to read about it and opened a starter today, its not cheap but also a long runway, will just let it set in my account and follow the business over time

[Malmqky]

23 hours ago, Luca said:

Continued to read about it and opened a starter today, its not cheap but also a long runway, will just let it set in my account and follow the business over time

So obviously you’re a fan of holdcos that compound book value at superior rates. Does the discount to NAV that these companies inherently deal with bother you at all?  

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

So obviously you’re a fan of holdcos that compound book value at superior rates. Does the discount to NAV that these companies inherently deal with bother you at all?  

Doesnt bother me one bit, i get more earnings power for a cheaper price, they continue to compound at high rates, win win. Buying back their shares etc

[CorpRaider]

Recently bought some CLPR, SAVE, K, WFC-L for grandmother (thanks to poster who alerted me to existence).

[Dinar]

NEN.  Sold June 23rd MANU puts with a $21 strike for $1.15 each.

[Aurelius]

@dinar

Do you know at what price are Manu expected to be sold for? Ie how are you thinking about this? 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Aurelius

[Dinar]

34 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

@dinar

Do you know at what price are Manu expected to be sold for? Ie how are you thinking about this? 

So, Gregmal is a lot more knowledgeable than I am on this subject.  My guess is that it will most likely to be sold to Sheikh Jassim for around $33-37 per share.  However, my bet is that nothing will happen for the next seven days, and I felt that I got paid very well for the risk - $1.15 per option.  Yes, if the Sheikh walks or club gets sold to Ratcliffe, the stock probably goes to $14-$17, but I doubt that it will happen next week.  I have been writing at the money options on this since January...

[Gregmal]

Yea if you're long, or a buyer of MANU here, you are solely betting on a full takeover deal with Sheikh. They've tried manufacturing a lot of leverage, but for the reasons Ive detailed in the thread, see no other reasonable alternative in terms of outcomes. Price doesnt matter. It will be higher than this. 

[Spekulatius]

Added a bit more $ELV in several accounts on the dip a few days ago, caused by $UNH mentioning more selective procedures on the GS conference.

[competitive-advantage]

14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Added a bit more $ELV in several accounts on the dip a few days ago, caused by $UNH mentioning more selective procedures on the GS conference.

Will you explain why ELV is the better choice? And what are selective procedures? I have looked into UNH recently and the pharma industry to get more knowledge about this subject.

[Aurelius]

@Dinar @Gregmal Thanks!

Wow - those are some very juicy premiums!

I feel like the club is def getting sold. Present owners are hated/disliked by virtually all the fans at this point. Can't see them backtracking now and staying as owners...

 

What are your thoughts as to why the premiums are this high? 

Most be the point @Spekulatius has made regarding minority shareholders, no? 

 

Edit: I sold a few puts as well. Kind of bummed I've totally slept on this ... ManU is my team!!! 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Aurelius

[dealraker]

In recent times, last 2-3 months or so as more money comes in than goes out:

 

BN

OWL

DPZ

CBE

ICE

NSC

LHX

 

And yes I agree with Parsad as to recession.  But I do what I know to do and just keep doing it.  

Edited June 17, 2023 by dealraker

[Gregmal]

22 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

@Dinar @Gregmal Thanks!

Wow - those are some very juicy premiums!

I feel like the club is def getting sold. Present owners are hated/disliked by virtually all the fans at this point. Can't see them backtracking now and staying as owners...

 

What are your thoughts as to why the premiums are this high? 

Most be the point @Spekulatius has made regarding minority shareholders, no? 

 

Edit: I sold a few puts as well. Kind of bummed I've totally slept on this ... ManU is my team!!! 

You definitely have to be a little careful selling the puts this far along in the process because an outcome is really your enemy there. But yea, these are the sort of gold mines you live for. Its why you need to be constantly looking for opportunities instead of whining about the market or the Fed or whatever. Been hitting this since late last year. The volatility alone is pretty awesome. The puts have consistently had $1-2 on the premiums for 5-10% out of the money 2-4 week expirations. Very similar to CLF in 2021. 

[dealraker]

Although off topic here maybe, I also think Greg is right in so many ways.  Seems the simplistic mode is too simple, that if we have inflation just crush the economy with rates that scare the living hell out of everyone.  Really?  We had years of thriving economy where the fed was so afraid to do anything even up to 1/16th % interest rate rise or whatnot, then obvious issues relating to all kinds of things jamming up the world...and that's when you raise rates?  Really?  Really? Really?  Oh my!

 

Hell, why not just shut down all the railroads for 6 months and set the prime to 20%?  Then we can go back to start again, like 100 years ago or something.

 

So higher interest rates solve the housing issue?  Yeaboy, got it.  Solved!  

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Aurelius said:

@Dinar @Gregmal Thanks!

Wow - those are some very juicy premiums!

I feel like the club is def getting sold. Present owners are hated/disliked by virtually all the fans at this point. Can't see them backtracking now and staying as owners...

 

What are your thoughts as to why the premiums are this high? 

Most be the point @Spekulatius has made regarding minority shareholders, no? 

 

Edit: I sold a few puts as well. Kind of bummed I've totally slept on this ... ManU is my team!!! 

Do we think the Glazers actually care about being hated though? I mean there is A LOT of hated franchise owners out there that stick around for a long time. Dolan and Jerry Jones come to mind here in the US. 
 

I think if they choose to sell its entirely about the money. If they really cared about image and making a better name for themselves they would likely find a way to sell to Ratcliff. Bringing Manu back under the British fold would be a positive image booster with die hard Brit fans. Brit tradition/heritage angle etc. Reminds me somewhat of the LIV golf situation. I don’t think they care about any of that and will simply go with the highest offer if they choose to sell at all.

[Gregmal]

25 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Although off topic here maybe, I also think Greg is right in so many ways.  Seems the simplistic mode is too simple, that if we have inflation just crush the economy with rates that scare the living hell out of everyone.  Really?  We had years of thriving economy where the fed was so afraid to do anything even up to 1/16th % interest rate rise or whatnot, then obvious issues relating to all kinds of things jamming up the world...and that's when you raise rates?  Really?  Really? Really?  Oh my!

 

Hell, why not just shut down all the railroads for 6 months and set the prime to 20%?  Then we can go back to start again, like 100 years ago or something.

 

So higher interest rates solve the housing issue?  Yeaboy, got it.  Solved!  

Yea the setup was visible from 100 miles away. 
 

-Sour the population on housing…check

-Under build for a decade…check

-Pandemic reminds everyone why they love them some space and a backyard

-low rates and a big liquidity boost flush out the remainder of the past decades inventory

-load up homebuilders with 2 years worth of order backlog 

-raise rates to make housing MORE unaffordable while letting homebuilders adjust to the new environment as they work through a historic backlog at fat margins which shore up the balance sheets

 

Whoops JPow? Whoops Mrs Zelman and all the experts? Did no one see this coming?

 

I said in 2021 we were basically in like the 2/3 inning of a historic run for housing. Setup mirrors the tech bubble 1999 and then the tech run we ve had the last decade or so. First act(2005) will look like a minnow compared to this one. We re probably in the 4th inning or so. Anyone who can’t see it isn’t looking. 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Gregmal

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Do we think the Glazers actually care about being hated though? I mean there is A LOT of hated franchise owners out there that stick around for a long time. Dolan and Jerry Jones come to mind here in the US. 
 

I think if they choose to sell its entirely about the money. If they really cared about image and making a better name for themselves they would likely find a way to sell to Ratcliff. Bringing Manu back under the British fold would be a positive image booster with die hard Brit fans. Brit tradition/heritage angle etc. Reminds me somewhat of the LIV golf situation. I don’t think they care about any of that and will simply go with the highest offer if they choose to sell at all.

Has nothing to do with the Glazers. No right minded individual parting with billions is going to partner with the Glazers as it would undoubtedly impair the brand and make it significantly harder to create value in an entity that only really gains value through its brand power. I’ve mentioned in the MANU thread but there’s a huge difference between Dolan and Jones and those guys. They never yank their fans around with false hope of a sale. It would totally shock me if the Glazers put this out there in such a fashion, got the hopes up, and then backed out. There would definitely be riots. It’s would massively damage the brand.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Gregmal

[Gregmal]

The Feds “mandate is to fight inflation” they say. 1/3 of inflation is housing. These geniuses employed thousands of economists and piss away billions of dollars annually paying these nimrods….and the answer to fighting inflation they come up with? Make housing even more expensive! And now, even after everything else has plummeted, not just stopped inflating, but deflated in many cases, they sit sit here and say the overall number, is still “stubbornly high” lol even though they’re the reason why.

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, competitive-advantage said:

Will you explain why ELV is the better choice? And what are selective procedures? I have looked into UNH recently and the pharma industry to get more knowledge about this subject.

UNH and ELV are quite similar business. UNH trades at a considerable premium ELV and the rest of the health care space and at least for the UNH- ELV pair, the valuation premium for UNH over RLV seems too high for me. UNH has great operational performance and the stock has responded accordingly which is one of the reasons for the premium.

 

Health care insurers are incredible business due to their cash generation ability. Their liabilities are short term in nature and much of the business is not insurance at all, but more of a fee for service or subscription business.  It is a way better business than Pharma in general, imo.

 

Elective procedures are procedures for non- acute conditions and there is a fine line to absolutely essential procedures. The fact that the incidence rate of elective procedure rises could be an indication of a weakening labor market and fear of layoffs. People often get medical stuff done when they think they may lose their health insurance temporarily due to getting laid off , but that’s just my hunch.

 

As for ELV, the part that’s missing are insider purchases - I have not seen any. Insiders  didn’t even buy in summer 2020 (when I bought most of my shares) and that would have been a very good time to do so, so maybe their timing acumen isn’t that great.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Jaygo]

58 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The Feds “mandate is to fight inflation” they say. 1/3 of inflation is housing. These geniuses employed thousands of economists and piss away billions of dollars annually paying these nimrods….and the answer to fighting inflation they come up with? Make housing even more expensive! And now, even after everything else has plummeted, not just stopped inflating, but deflated in many cases, they sit sit here and say the overall number, is still “stubbornly high” lol even though they’re the reason why.

These guys are either dumb as rocks or nefarious in their business. Raising rates makes inflation go up as it lowers production of most goods.  With our demographics we need cheap money to keep raising our standard of living. Housing is going to keep rocking until the boomers die  10 years, 15 or more who knows but when you have the two largest age cohorts fighting for the same thing you get a lot of demand.