What are you buying today?

[investor1]

SAX.DE

[longlake95]

JOE

[gary17]

looking at fairfax two year corporate bond lol

[fareastwarriors]

average down on $META...

getting really painful. 

Edited September 13, 2022 by fareastwarriors

[Spekulatius]

8 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

average down on $META...

getting really painful. 

[jfan]

38 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

average down on $META...

getting really painful. 

I joined you in this toilet flushing moment.

Not that I'm fantastic at pinpointing intrinsic value. But it seems to me the market has already priced in a digital ad market share decline from mid 20% to mid teens, and a terminal value PE multiple compression to 16 over the next decade. I just see WhatsApp monetization and Reality Labs as a free option at these market values. 

 

I guess the biggest risk is an exponential deterioration of social networks when people churn off to competitors. What were the reasons for MySpace's demise? 

 

[IceCreamMan]

1 hour ago, jfan said:

What were the reasons for MySpace's demise? 

 

Facebook?

[jfan]

17 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said:

 

Facebook?

Sorry could be a bit clearer. Just trying to draw historical lessons from the demise of MySpace and to see if there are parallels with the Meta story.

[crs223]

23 minutes ago, jfan said:

Sorry could be a bit clearer. Just trying to draw historical lessons from the demise of MySpace and to see if there are parallels with the Meta story.

 

He’s saying “facebook was the reason for myspace’s demise”.

[LC]

facebook:myspace

tiktok:instagram

 

?

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, LC said:

facebook:myspace

tiktok:instagram

 

?

Tiktok really is not a replacement for FB or Instagram. It’s not a social interaction platform. Most users just passively watch short form video there, which is different than interacting with other users or uploading your own fotos etc. In my opinion, Tiktok is more a competitor for YouTube than FB and IG.

 

That said, they all compete for eyeballs and attention. With Zuck’s Metaverse Adventure, there is a real risk than Meta becomes a rapidly melting icecube. For that reason, I would be reluctant to average down to no end.

 

When network effects start to unwind, the underlying value can become extremely squishy. I own some shares, but I am reluctant to add more. I need to see some tangible progress on the product development from Meta here to add more to this bet.

 

I decided a while ago to switch ~80% of my Meta allocation to GOOGL. I would much rather add to GOOGL than to Meta at this point.

[DooDiligence]

41 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I would much rather add to GOOGL than to Meta at this point.

 

I just Googled this and the internet says you are correct.

[Spekulatius]

43 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

I just Googled this and the internet says you are correct.

This feel like  a circularity or singularity has been reached.

 

On a side note, when you asked google the question" Should I buy XX stock?", you get some interesting answers and links to look at. I actually started doing this as part of my research process.

 

Same with $XX (XX= ticker symbol) in twitter.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

Small add to Uber.

[Benderok]

Added to GOOGL today 

[ValueMaven]

On 9/13/2022 at 6:19 PM, Spekulatius said:

One of the shittiest insurance companies I am aware of (from a shareholders perspective). Hasn’t gone anywhere for 2 decades.

 

I owned shares around 2001 or so and made out OK riding the shares up a bit, but they are pretty much back to the same levels.

 

I liked them as a customer when I lived in CA, lowest rates for the combo of homeowners and car insurance by a country mile for me.

 

What is your thesis?

 

I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around.  I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers.  Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income.  Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders.  Hardly any leverage as well

[yesman182]

58 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:

I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around.  I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers.  Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income.  Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders.  Hardly any leverage as well

Didn't they just cut their dividend in half? Didn't California also not allow price increases for another year or so? I am happy to pass on MCY until it is well below book. I will be interested to see what happens when the old man is no longer at the helm. 

[n.r98]

1 hour ago, ValueMaven said:

 

I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around.  I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers.  Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income.  Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders.  Hardly any leverage as well

 

Speaking about insurance companies - maybe $ARGO might interest you, still looking into it. Right off the bat, already trading at 0.6 BV despite making a division sale at 0.81 BV. Business has been trimming international divisions and current core US insurance biz has a combined ratio <100 whilst previously, blended combined ratio in the 120s. Activists just got on BoD and really pushing for a sale here it seems.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

 

I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around.  I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers.  Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income.  Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders.  Hardly any leverage as well

Thanks for your perspective. I am not convinced that MCY is a good value. The way I see it, they operate mostly at a combined ratio of 100% , so the result comes from the investment return. I think they operate around 2x premium /equity and their (mostly bond) investment are a bit higher than premiums so with this short duration portfolio, the returns on equity have been mostly below 10%.

 

They did better than that in 2020, but that’s because accident frequency was way down due to less driving. I think for a stock that earns less than 10% on equity (and in fact barely 8% over the years) valuation at book value is about fair. So for me  MCY doesn’t  look all that cheap.

 

 

[DooDiligence]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This feel like  a circularity or singularity has been reached.

 

On a side note, when you asked google the question" Should I buy XX stock?", you get some interesting answers and links to look at. I actually started doing this as part of my research process.

 

Same with $XX (XX= ticker symbol) in twitter.

 

Not sure how accurate this visualization is but yeah, more Google.

 

 

[GordonGekko69]

more PAH3, sold puts on PAH3 @ 64 (9/16) @ 67 (9/16) and @ 62 (10/21), little add to PCYO and sold Puts on WBD @ 10.5 (10/28)

Edited September 15, 2022 by GordonGekko69

[Spekulatius]

Bought a starter in WRK. I think it's cheap and less cyclical than Mr Market thinks.

[Gregmal]

Bought some more XLE. We now have the Biden put at $80 a barrel. Joe thinks he's gonna keep the price from crashing and replenish the reserves. Little does he know he's already accomplished that, in spades. 

[Gregmal]

Notha 20% add to JOE

[fareastwarriors]

47 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Notha 20% add to JOE

+ $joe one pack here 

Edited September 15, 2022 by fareastwarriors