What are you buying today?

[no_free_lunch]

Roblox RBLX.  Hard to justify but I see a lot of potential. Seen too many kids playing on it.  I love that the video game content is created by the users for near free. Could be considered a social network.

Edited April 8, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[lnofeisone]

Another binary trade.

 

Vertex Energy - the company is doing 100% pivot from used motor oil refining to being a refinery producing renewable diesel. Shell is trying to become green and is selling an enormously profitable refinery in Mobile, Alabama. What does it mean for VTNR:

-Revenue today is 120M or so and it will go to about (VTNR-guided) 2.5B (you are reading this correctly) and 200M in gross profit for FY22. They just closed the purchase of the refinery.

-They are guiding to 3.5B in revenue and 400M gross profit for FY23

-They have offtake and supply agreements signed

-EV is about 700M once accounted for all new debt

-There is a 30% short interest in the stock

 

Options are insanely priced but 10/17.5 2023 vertical spread will cost you 1.10. 

 

Some references: https://www.accesswire.com/671855/Vertex-Energy-Reports-Third-Quarter-2021-Results-and-Provides-Strategic-Update

 

 

[Red Lion]

Added to APO. 

[Ross812]

Added to GOOG and GOOGL

[fareastwarriors]

PCYO and CLPR

[lnofeisone]

Topped off ibonds for the whole family. 

[WFF]

On 4/2/2022 at 9:46 AM, WFF said:

PCYO， recycling some APTS proceeds that are now over the line.

Same old same old.  This time picked up some BAC and AIV.  

[GordonGekko69]

addded a bit to PCYO

[Libs]

BC. Stupid cheap at $75

[Red Lion]

I sold short a very small position in TLT, and used the proceeds to buy  ITM, slightly OTM,  and very OTM. Very late to this trade, and I'm only dabbling in small amounts. If rates on the long term melt upward though the next two Fed meetings, this might provide a little green in a sea of red for my portfolio. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by RedLion

[bennycx]

BABA

[Parsad]

Five Guys little bacon burger, little fries and regular Coke!  Other than that...nothing!  Cheers!

[no_free_lunch]

Bought some TWTR this week. It seems so cheap relative to its usage.  Also a gamble that Musk doesn't bail and somehow multibags it. 

 

I think having your own satellite system combined with dominant social media could be a powerful combination.

 

If Musk bails you are only paying a 15% premium.  Evrn without him it could work out ok. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[igotthisnow]

On 4/12/2022 at 4:21 PM, Ross812 said:

Added to GOOG and GOOGL

 

So did I.  With Facebook facing advertising issues, I think Google will be the winner.  We'll see when numbers are reported.

[Spekulatius]

Added back a bit of PINS and PKE ( I really like PKE’s management). I also bought a starter of SONY in one account.

[formthirteen]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Added back a bit of PINS and PKE ( I really like PKE’s management). I also bought a starter of SONY in one account.

 

What's your thesis and view on the management of PINS? I see a profitable company with 743m FCF, 2.5B cash in 2021, MSFT and PYPL trying to acquire the company ~50B vs. current EV of ~14B, ~80% gross margins, ~20% operating margins, 500m MAUs. I have a tracker position and for some reason I find it difficult to make it any bigger.

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

What's your thesis and view on the management of PINS? I see a profitable company with 743m FCF, 2.5B cash in 2021, MSFT and PYPL trying to acquire the company ~50B vs. current EV of ~14B, ~80% gross margins, ~20% operating margins, 500m MAUs. I have a tracker position and for some reason I find it difficult to make it any bigger.

 

It’s a website /social network ideally suited for discovery & shopping. I don’t think they will be independent in 5 years, someone is going to buy it eventually.  It‘s already profitable  and relatively cheap. Not a major bet yet, but worth a small position. User trend KPI‘s are a concern.

 

I have a position in PYPL as well.

[formthirteen]

On 4/15/2022 at 1:55 PM, Spekulatius said:

It’s a website /social network ideally suited for discovery & shopping. I don’t think they will be independent in 5 years, someone is going to buy it eventually.  It‘s already profitable  and relatively cheap. Not a major bet yet, but worth a small position. User trend KPI‘s are a concern.

 

I have a position in PYPL as well.

 

Mr. Market does not like tech companies that have FCF. I have a tracker position in PYPL as well (5B FCF, growing ~20% / year). DBX is another one (1B FCF 2024E vs. current ~9B EV).

[Libs]

SCHW - again.

 

Thank you, Mr. Market.

[cubsfan]

KMX 91.50

[Spekulatius]

On 4/17/2022 at 12:49 AM, formthirteen said:

 

Mr. Market does not like tech companies that have FCF. I have a tracker position in PYPL as well (5B FCF, growing ~20% / year). DBX is another one (1B FCF 2024E vs. current ~9B EV).

Mr Market hates tech companies without FCF even more so than tech companies with FCF. I may add some PYPL as well, just added added a bit more to PINS.

[rkbabang]

Opened small positions in COIN and SQ.  Added to MSTR and PYCO.

 

[throw123]

KMX

[Castanza]

adds AIV, PCYO, PINS, INTC

 

new (small position) CMMC.TO trading at levels from 1 year ago with balance sheet improvements. Hit some operational issues Q4 but are expected to resolve by 2H 22. Trading at like 2.5x cash compared to 9x industry average. Upcoming call April 26th…will be interesting to hear updates on AUS mine. 

 

Anyone else looking at the copper/metals segment? Definitely open to ideas as this area is not my forte….

 

 

[PJH111]

15 hours ago, Castanza said:

adds AIV, PCYO, PINS, INTC

 

new (small position) CMMC.TO trading at levels from 1 year ago with balance sheet improvements. Hit some operational issues Q4 but are expected to resolve by 2H 22. Trading at like 2.5x cash compared to 9x industry average. Upcoming call April 26th…will be interesting to hear updates on AUS mine. 

 

Anyone else looking at the copper/metals segment? Definitely open to ideas as this area is not my forte….

 

 

For copper, have a look at ARG.TO. They process tailings from one of Chile's largest state owned copper mines. Leveraged to copper prices but limited capex requirements as they are not directly mining (also a nice ESG angle). Low cash operating costs and favorable long-term power supply agreement with locked in prices for the next 15 years. CAD$320m market cap, net cash, and at today's prices are generating in the range of CAD$90 - $100m in FCF per year. Big focus on capital returns...currently paying a 6.5% div yield and buying back stock - in addition to NCIB in place they completed an SIB at the end of last year scooping up shares at 1.30 with stock now trading at 1.80. And mgmt has recently committed to return all excess cash back to shareholders in the form of special divs (subject to min cash need of US$25m). They are currently sitting on about USD $75m of cash at the end of Q1...