TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 8, 2022 Posted March 8, 2022 9 hours ago, james22 said: Gold has competition for the first time (Crypto). That makes me much less certain than I otherwise would be. While I don't yet dismiss the "store of value" argument for crypto, I do think the volatility gets in the way for use in trading it like that for these shorter term events. With gold, you typically don't have to worry about 50+% drawdowns over a matter of months in a favorable environment. Crypto on the other hand? Bitcoin has had 50+% corrections in the middle of its manic bull markets. I would think this makes BTC hard to trade on these macro concerns because at any given time you could find yourself in one of those 50+% corrections, in a broader bull market, and BTC doesn't respond to the event as you might expect. That uncertainty is enough for me to continue to own gold to hedge financial repression and geopolitics but I own way more BTC as a secular bet on it's future growth.
Spekulatius Posted March 8, 2022 Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: While I don't yet dismiss the "store of value" argument for crypto, I do think the volatility gets in the way for use in trading it like that for these shorter term events. With gold, you typically don't have to worry about 50+% drawdowns over a matter of months in a favorable environment. Crypto on the other hand? Bitcoin has had 50+% corrections in the middle of its manic bull markets. I would think this makes BTC hard to trade on these macro concerns because at any given time you could find yourself in one of those 50+% corrections, in a broader bull market, and BTC doesn't respond to the event as you might expect. That uncertainty is enough for me to continue to own gold to hedge financial repression and geopolitics but I own way more BTC as a secular bet on it's future growth. In addition, crypto is clearly a risk on asset and gold more the opposite.
meiroy Posted March 8, 2022 Posted March 8, 2022 BTW I was buying options on the gold futures, not sure what's the advantage of buying options on the ETF?
formthirteen Posted March 8, 2022 Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) Buying starter positions in dividend aristocrats ADM.L and IGG.L. Both are trading like there's a pandemic ongoing and WW3 just started. Edited March 8, 2022 by formthirteen
bizaro86 Posted March 8, 2022 Posted March 8, 2022 21 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Some adds here and there. As a new position, bought some HERDEZ.MX. Thanks for sharing this! I find this quite interesting. High quality packaged food in a growing emerging market, Mexico is probably also a net beneficiary from near-shoring and any move away from globalization. Decent dividend yield, reasonable history of growth. Biggest risk would probably be not being able to pass along input inflation. I didn't know they were publicly traded, but am familiar with the products. I quite liked a number of their Herdez branded sauces/salsas when I was in Mexico a number of years ago. Previously I was only able to find them in the small/local Hispanic grocer, but lately I've noticed a number of Herdez choices in my regular grocery store choices, taking share from US based salsa brands, probably on a perception of authenticity/quality. I'm not sure how meaningful that will be but it doesn't hurt. I've also observed they have significant share of shelf space in the large format stores in Mexico (Wal-Mart/Mega) for their Herdez brand. I didn't know until you posted that they own the McCormick brand in Mexico, which has a much wider variety and higher market share (imo based on shelf space) than the US equivalent brand. Valuation seems reasonable and dividend doesn't hurt, down significantly recently. Curious how you came across them?
Spekulatius Posted March 8, 2022 Posted March 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, bizaro86 said: Thanks for sharing this! I find this quite interesting. High quality packaged food in a growing emerging market, Mexico is probably also a net beneficiary from near-shoring and any move away from globalization. Decent dividend yield, reasonable history of growth. Biggest risk would probably be not being able to pass along input inflation. I didn't know they were publicly traded, but am familiar with the products. I quite liked a number of their Herdez branded sauces/salsas when I was in Mexico a number of years ago. Previously I was only able to find them in the small/local Hispanic grocer, but lately I've noticed a number of Herdez choices in my regular grocery store choices, taking share from US based salsa brands, probably on a perception of authenticity/quality. I'm not sure how meaningful that will be but it doesn't hurt. I've also observed they have significant share of shelf space in the large format stores in Mexico (Wal-Mart/Mega) for their Herdez brand. I didn't know until you posted that they own the McCormick brand in Mexico, which has a much wider variety and higher market share (imo based on shelf space) than the US equivalent brand. Valuation seems reasonable and dividend doesn't hurt, down significantly recently. Curious how you came across them? I also knew the products and looked them up, then put it on my Mexican stock tracking list. I recently realized that the stock has been tanking. Granted, they do have issues with price inflation possibly exceeding their pricing power, but for the life of me, I could find a reason why a food producer's stock should get wrecked so much. So I bought a few shares as just another portfolio bet. Actually, what made me push the buy button was that the company has been buying back a lot of shares in 2021. This is unusual for emerging market stocks and I think it warrants some attention. FWIW, this is family controlled and they have a somewhat weird structure where all the different subs are only 50% owned, but fully consolidated. It screws up some financials websites metrics. As for the products, we actually found some in a Super Walmart in NH. Walmart's often have a decent Hispanic food selection and they are cheap. I highly recommend the Street taco sauces: https://www.salsas.com/herdez/products/taqueria-street-sauces/
Ross812 Posted March 8, 2022 Posted March 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I also knew the products and looked them up, then put it on my Mexican stock tracking list. I recently realized that the stock has been tanking. Granted, they do have issues with price inflation possibly exceeding their pricing power, but for the life of me, I could find a reason why a food producer's stock should get wrecked so much. So I bought a few shares as just another portfolio bet. Actually, what made me push the buy button was that the company has been buying back a lot of shares in 2021. This is unusual for emerging market stocks and I think it warrants some attention. FWIW, this is family controlled and they have a somewhat weird structure where all the different subs are only 50% owned, but fully consolidated. It screws up some financials websites metrics. As for the products, we actually found some in a Super Walmart in NH. Walmart's often have a decent Hispanic food selection and they are cheap. I highly recommend the Street taco sauces: https://www.salsas.com/herdez/products/taqueria-street-sauces/ Thanks for the idea. Their salsas are in all the grocery stores here in KY. I used to have to go to Walmart to find it after being introduced to it in AZ. I'll have to dig into it. The price action looks strange to me lately with a lot of flat lining at $30 then $25. Maybe buybacks?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 8, 2022 Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) On 2/17/2022 at 6:06 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said: My June $175 Call options that were purchased OTM several months back are looking decent with this recent breakout from the recent consolidation. Risked less than 0.5% of the portfolio, but now ITM on a notional that is ~20% of the portfolio value. Gold has often bottomed just before the first set of rate hikes so I think mich of the hiking is already priced in. I know everyone here likes stocks for an inflationary environment, but the track record of gold in response to negative real rates/financial repression is enviable. Probably trying to be too smart, but sold April $183 calls against this. Got about $5 of time value per contract and some downside protection since they're ITM by a few percent. Kind of figured this may pull back some over the next month or so now that it's overbought and basically went vertical for a few days. Just want to take some gains off the table and get paid a little to wait for this to cool off a hair. Hoping for a retest of $180 sometimes around the time the Fed actually hikes rates. Edited March 8, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital
Fundmanagerthrwawy Posted March 9, 2022 Posted March 9, 2022 Added to my JPM position. Has anyone else? Is there a topic on JPM on this forum?
meiroy Posted March 9, 2022 Posted March 9, 2022 Commodities. https://theovershoot.co/p/the-implications-of-unrestricted?s=r
meiroy Posted March 9, 2022 Posted March 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Fundmanagerthrwawy said: Added to my JPM position. Has anyone else? Is there a topic on JPM on this forum? I'm keeping an eye on it but there's so much uncertainty, who knows what they're exposed to. What's the hurry? GS is the king of commodities, at least while Blankfein was around and they indeed reduced their exposure but Lloyd is probably still around in spirit...
Dinar Posted March 9, 2022 Posted March 9, 2022 51 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Shorted some OTM puts on OXY and XOM If you do not mind my asking, why and what maturity? Thank you.
Gregmal Posted March 9, 2022 Posted March 9, 2022 ~10% OTM and a month or less til expiration. With VIX over 30 you're getting paid extremely well and if you get put the shares the valuations are still favorable.
boilermaker75 Posted March 9, 2022 Posted March 9, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 2:25 PM, boilermaker75 said: Wrote a couple of MSGE 65-strike March 18 puts for $0.90 per share. I have limit orders in for more at higher prices. I echo GFP with thanks to Gregmal for calling our attention to EBAY. One I also haven't thought about for a while. Wrote some MSGE 70-strike March 18 puts for $0.90 per share.
boilermaker75 Posted March 9, 2022 Posted March 9, 2022 wrote OXY 53-strike, March 11 expiration puts.
lnofeisone Posted March 10, 2022 Posted March 10, 2022 Bought some KWEB calls. Seems like everyone is taking a beating on all things China so I may as well join the club.
hillfronter83 Posted March 10, 2022 Posted March 10, 2022 21 minutes ago, lnofeisone said: Bought some KWEB calls. Seems like everyone is taking a beating on all things China so I may as well join the club. Chinese stonks are new Russia stocks.
Spekulatius Posted March 10, 2022 Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, hillfronter83 said: Chinese stonks are new Russia stocks. I am going to explain to my grandkids why investing my money in communist and totalitarian countries is a great idea one day. Edited March 10, 2022 by Spekulatius
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