StevieV Posted February 1, 2022 Posted February 1, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:23 PM, RedLion said: Added to BX today. Great timing.
Red Lion Posted February 1, 2022 Posted February 1, 2022 15 hours ago, StevieV said: Great timing. Thank you! Wish it had still been sitting at $102 when I had a bunch of dry powder land in my account 2 days later..
perulv Posted February 1, 2022 Posted February 1, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 9:00 PM, Spekulatius said: I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space. Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do. The general idea is that if everyone has put in huge orders to these suppliers (that seem to all be dropping in price now), and at some point all these orders are filled, everyone suddenly has all the <whatever the suppliers produce>, and the demand drops? Are you staying away from (buying in) this space altogether atm. @Spekulatius?
Spekulatius Posted February 1, 2022 Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, perulv said: The general idea is that if everyone has put in huge orders to these suppliers (that seem to all be dropping in price now), and at some point all these orders are filled, everyone suddenly has all the <whatever the suppliers produce>, and the demand drops? Are you staying away from (buying in) this space altogether atm. @Spekulatius? Yes, that's the concern in a nutshell. These type of boom busts have occurred with semiconductors and other components many times. I have seen tis personally at work over and over. it happens because purchasing organizations collectively can panic just as much as any individual human can. Just a recent example - the company I work for produces components that get used in medical equipment including respiratory equipment. Guess what, business went gangbusters early in 2020 and volumes went up and up faster than we could deliver until late 2021. Then they went to....zero. Word from the customer is that they have inventory for at least 12 month that they need to burn through. The same thing happens again and again. I do think especially right now with all the supply chain issues, there is a lot of double ordering going on (likely exaggerating the very real underlying issue) in many different parts in manufacturing and supply chains. These are ripples that all come from the COVID-19 shock that hit supply chains at different points in time, depending on products, lead time, raw materials, labor availability. It will take a long time until these ripples have made it through the system, but eventually it will happen.
CafeB Posted February 1, 2022 Posted February 1, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, perulv said: if everyone has put in huge orders to these suppliers (that seem to all be dropping in price now), and at some point all these orders are filled, everyone suddenly has all the <whatever the suppliers produce>, and the demand drops? Offset in part by services for larger installed base? Edited February 1, 2022 by CafeB
Red Lion Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 Started a new position in OWL. There are some warrants on this one I'm sniffing around as well.
perulv Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 Small position in Ørsted (ORSTED.CO). Not cheap, but less pricy now that everything "green", both crappy and good businesses, have come down in price. Decent fundamentals in an obviously increasing market.
Castanza Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 F%ck it.....Starting a small position in BABA
Longnose Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 44 minutes ago, Castanza said: F%ck it.....Starting a small position in BABA Welcome to the club
Castanza Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Longnose said: Welcome to the club
Red Lion Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 Just started a decent sized new position in PYPL after-hours at 129.60
Red Lion Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 Also initiated a decent sized position in FB at $252.64/252.75 after hours.
lnofeisone Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, RedLion said: Also initiated a decent sized position in FB at $252.64/252.75 after hours. Fascinating rotation. PYPL, FB, and growth in general, is getting destroyed but market is up.
Gregmal Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, lnofeisone said: Fascinating rotation. PYPL, FB, and growth in general, is getting destroyed but market is up. GOOG and MSFT are diversified behemoths. Basically high quality tech ETF. The one dimensional one trick ponies are getting walloped.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Gregmal said: GOOG and MSFT are diversified behemoths. Basically high quality tech ETF. The one dimensional one trick ponies are getting walloped. Except for Apple, but maybe it's day will also come.
rohitc99 Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gregmal said: GOOG and MSFT are diversified behemoths. Basically high quality tech ETF. The one dimensional one trick ponies are getting walloped. isnt GOOG the same ? most of their earnings are from search. youtube is there too but unlike MSFT not as diversified ?
scorpioncapital Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Gregmal said: GOOG and MSFT are diversified behemoths. Basically high quality tech ETF. The one dimensional one trick ponies are getting walloped. all those behemoths started as one trick ponies.
Gregmal Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 All I know is that if things keep playing out that way they are, theres gonna be an ugly divorce. The romance that basically the entire market has with the FANGs won't last forever. Its perfectly normal in the course of history for good companies to trade at 15x if theres question marks or headwinds. We're still seemingly at the "every dip is buyable because theyre beautiful" phase.
Gregmal Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, rohitc99 said: isnt GOOG the same ? most of their earnings are from search. youtube is there too but unlike MSFT not as diversified ? Search, Android, Youtube, self driving and AI units, cash. Google is a total monster. Apple is probably overvalued but its excellent as well. MSFT I dont see a weakness to not even regulatory. The rest, rightfully having issues.
Gregmal Posted February 2, 2022 Posted February 2, 2022 Even the ones that just posted awesome earnings are for some reason trading lower after these couple duds. Too many retards in the market and too many know nothing participants and index/etf products. It’s gonna drag down everything.
Spekulatius Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 14 hours ago, Gregmal said: Even the ones that just posted awesome earnings are for some reason trading lower after these couple duds. Too many retards in the market and too many know nothing participants and index/etf products. It’s gonna drag down everything. FB going back to prices last seen in march 2021. If you read Fintwit you would think that an asteroid hit earth and destroyed half the hedge fund managers and finance professionals in NYC. Even crude oil prices are falling. LOL. Edited February 3, 2022 by Spekulatius
boilermaker75 Posted February 3, 2022 Posted February 3, 2022 Wrote 230-strike, Feb 4 expiration FB puts.
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