Gregmal Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 At these prices it will be soon. Been a top 5 but took some off mid teens as there’s a clear catalyst gap from phase 1- phase 2. Now we re getting into the heart of phase 2, oil and gas pickup means fracking revenue could blow up, and this transitions real nicely into the commercial phase which is where all the dollars start pouring in. Still early if you’re trying to time the move, but I think at these prices I’m cool with holding dead money for a couple quarters. Just wish the options were more liquid. I’d be shorting 10/12.5 puts all day here.
Castanza Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 25 minutes ago, Gregmal said: At these prices it will be soon. Been a top 5 but took some off mid teens as there’s a clear catalyst gap from phase 1- phase 2. Now we re getting into the heart of phase 2, oil and gas pickup means fracking revenue could blow up, and this transitions real nicely into the commercial phase which is where all the dollars start pouring in. Still early if you’re trying to time the move, but I think at these prices I’m cool with holding dead money for a couple quarters. Just wish the options were more liquid. I’d be shorting 10/12.5 puts all day here. Nice, been holding for some time now as well. Probably maxed out on position size personally but the future looks bright.
Gregmal Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 Yea it’s an utter beast on the balance sheet side and you have a stupid margin of safety on declines to really back up the truck. Per my convos with Mark I have the utmost confidence that what irks us, ie the “come on already” shouts from the bleachers as far as land acquisitions and buybacks go, is also what protects us. Guy is 1000% committed to being well capitalized and not making mistakes.
Gregmal Posted January 25, 2022 Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 2:37 PM, thepupil said: i bought some QQQ...moving from 5.5% "big tech" to 7.5%. I still feel egregiously underweight these (for the most part) high quality growing businesses at pretty reasonable/fair valuations. I buy a good bit off index /month in my 401k which i don't consider part of my portfolio and is very small right now I didn't want to preclear anything and just bought the ETF which is 12% AAPL 10% MSFT 6.5% AMZN 5% META 4% TSLA GOOG, NVDA, GOOG again PEP, ADBE, etc. wont be bottom but whatever Your post actually got me thinking a little bit, and maybe a tad embarrassing, I swear I literally never look at or worry about the indexes, but damn, DOW 30 looks pretty awesome in terms of broad diversity to best in class stuff.
bizaro86 Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 3 hours ago, Gregmal said: At these prices it will be soon. Been a top 5 but took some off mid teens as there’s a clear catalyst gap from phase 1- phase 2. Now we re getting into the heart of phase 2, oil and gas pickup means fracking revenue could blow up, and this transitions real nicely into the commercial phase which is where all the dollars start pouring in. Still early if you’re trying to time the move, but I think at these prices I’m cool with holding dead money for a couple quarters. Just wish the options were more liquid. I’d be shorting 10/12.5 puts all day here. Maybe if someone wasn't buying all the volume the rest of us would be able to get a few more shares down around that $10-11 range.
Gregmal Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, bizaro86 said: Maybe if someone wasn't buying all the volume the rest of us would be able to get a few more shares down around that $10-11 range. Haha yea IDK lately Ive struggled with the whole thing. As an investor, who cares about volume, which is a stupid trading technical. Valuation matters right? Nonetheless between PCYO and GEOS its like, yea, I'd pay above market so as long as theyre there......then theres YSACW which is just kinda like, OK the SPAC isnt in any sense of the definition a standard SPAC deal. Its really going to come down to execution, with guys who know how to execute. 60c for 5 years on the warrants? Why not. Bidding against yourself? Who cares if the price is right, right?
thowed Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 7:37 PM, thepupil said: i bought some QQQ...moving from 5.5% "big tech" to 7.5%. I still feel egregiously underweight these (for the most part) high quality growing businesses at pretty reasonable/fair valuations. I buy a good bit off index /month in my 401k which i don't consider part of my portfolio and is very small right now I didn't want to preclear anything and just bought the ETF which is 12% AAPL 10% MSFT 6.5% AMZN 5% META 4% TSLA GOOG, NVDA, GOOG again PEP, ADBE, etc. wont be bottom but whatever I am starting to add to a QQQ 'proxy fund', which might be of interest to some - the Brown Advisory Sustainable Large Cap Fund (I'm buying the UCITS in Europe, but there's a Mutual Fund). I see it a bit like QQQ 'without the bad stuff'. The top holdings aren't as concentrated, but it only has about 30 holdings. Top stuff is MSFT, GOOG, INTU, DHR, AMZN, AMT etc. The UCITS has pretty much tracked QQQ which is decent given no Tesla. I have a funny feeling that the Mutual Fund hasn't performed quite so well. I think this may sometimes happen as the UCITS is a fair bit smaller so can be a bit nimbler changing things. I am normally a bit suspicious of anything called 'Sustainable', but in this case, it seems to be more about the 'Quality' rather than being overly 'woke'.
backtothebeach Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 (edited) Bought SPY Sep/Feb 400 put calendar spread @ $16.70 SPY has a gap at $400 ($2.71 gap). Gap theory says it is very likely to close. The game plan is to roll the short put as many months as necessary to close out the long put when SPY is close to the strike price. It is also a smidgen of insurance vs. my long portfolio. Edited January 26, 2022 by backtothebeach
Mephistopheles Posted January 26, 2022 Posted January 26, 2022 Sold some DISCA for tax loss and bought T on my IBKR margin
Charlie Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 Sold an underperforming fund of my parents and bought Ali Baba.
boilermaker75 Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, Castanza said: INTC I wrote some Jan 28 expiration, 47.5-strike puts for $0.31.
hasilp89 Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 bought a handful of coal names ARCH, AMR, METC, HCC
Gregmal Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 Bunch more PSTH. Billy tends to make noise in waves. Good placeholder til more interesting opportunity arrives
Gregmal Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 After a long stalk and starter in 40s, pulled the trigger on some CPNG calls
perulv Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today.
Castanza Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, perulv said: Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today. Short term probably. But long term I think this sector will outperform. I'm picking up some here as well.
Spekulatius Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, perulv said: Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today. I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space. Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do. Edited January 27, 2022 by Spekulatius
perulv Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 25 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space. Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do. That is a sobering thought SIMO and LRCX does not mention this directly in their forecasts as far as I can tell. But then again, not sure how much weight I should put in what is not in these guidances. SIMO on 2022 outlook: "“After delivering record operating results in 2021, we are optimistic that 2022 could be another banner year,” said Wallace Kou, President and CEO of Silicon Motion. ", revenue +20% to 30% Y/Y LRCX: " “While supply chain conditions worsened in late December and are causing near-term impacts to our results, we expect wafer fabrication equipment investments to again increase in calendar year 2022, leading to another strong growth year for Lam.” Q1 guidance: Net income per diluted share $7.36 (down from 8.44 in Q4) In the short term, it feels like that saying "a rising tide lifts all boats" works in reverse too. SIMO with EV/EBIT at 12 falls 8%, TSLA with EV/EBIT at 200 falls 10%.
Ross812 Posted January 27, 2022 Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) Started a position in SONO. Brand recognition, great balance sheet, margins are good, '22 PE of 15 and growing at 15%+. Audi deal and they successfully defended their patent against google. Every Sonos household buys on average 2.75 speakers and their music subscription service is getting traction. I see this becoming the Apple of home audio. Edited January 27, 2022 by Ross812
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