fareastwarriors Posted January 10, 2022 Posted January 10, 2022 a bit of MSGN a house - Investment SFH - closing this week.
rkbabang Posted January 10, 2022 Posted January 10, 2022 I sold some EPD puts last week, I just bought them back today to close them out for $600 less than I received for them in less than a week. Wanted to free up the cash which was backing them to buy some more TRRSF, SE, and AIV calls.
Spekulatius Posted January 11, 2022 Posted January 11, 2022 I am going compounder brother: GDRX, CRM, FROG, TWTR, and a bit more LBRDA and TMUS.
GordonGekko69 Posted January 11, 2022 Posted January 11, 2022 (edited) A starter position in NVAX and added to ARWR Edited January 11, 2022 by GordonGekko69
KPO Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Starter in PTLO and added a tad to NATH A sausage theme. Nice! I get these are reopening plays, but to what extent is that offset by input inflation? I’ll admit I haven’t done research on either besides watching the Nathan’s contest some years. The announcer may be worth picking up a small position, but I digress.
lnofeisone Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 CVE/WS and bought bear spreads on UNG (1/3 position).
Gregmal Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, KPO said: A sausage theme. Nice! I get these are reopening plays, but to what extent is that offset by input inflation? I’ll admit I haven’t done research on either besides watching the Nathan’s contest some years. The announcer may be worth picking up a small position, but I digress. @cubsfan brought up the discussion on PTLO and simply, I liked it so I started a position and plan to dig in deeper when I get settled on vacation. NATH I've owned a position as a buy and hold for ages and its got a kick ass royalty biz that is inflation proof and probably worth more than the market cap of the entire company. Management is also best in class and have done tons of buybacks and special dividends over the past decade.
cubsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 ^ PTLO has a strong cult following in Chicago area. I think it will grow nicely throughout the Midwest and Sunbelt.
Value_Added Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: @cubsfan brought up the discussion on PTLO and simply, I liked it so I started a position and plan to dig in deeper when I get settled on vacation. NATH I've owned a position as a buy and hold for ages and its got a kick ass royalty biz that is inflation proof and probably worth more than the market cap of the entire company. Management is also best in class and have done tons of buybacks and special dividends over the past decade. I love Portillos. I looked into them via their IPO report and the share count information was very confusing (could be something missed on my part). In their IPO documentation they had a total of 378m units/shares outstanding which was broken down by Class A, Class B, and LLC units totaling 378m. This document came out on 10/22/21. Their most recent quarterly report mentions a 7.4 to 1 reverse split which brought their count to 51m outstanding. The reverse split occurred on 10/20/21. Not saying anything odd is going on, simply that it’s a bit confusing as to why this wasn’t mentioned in their initial IPO documents. Maybe something to look into. Hope you share your thoughts on Portillos post analysis and look forward to hearing them if you do. From someone who has been eating there for years, it’s an amazing chain offering a great expirience.
KPO Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, cubsfan said: ^ PTLO has a strong cult following in Chicago area. I think it will grow nicely throughout the Midwest and Sunbelt. Thanks for the idea. I’ll check it out when we’re in Arizona in a few weeks as I see they have locations there.
cubsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 ValueADD - thanks for comments on share count. Seemed way too cheap in my quick ratios. I'm confused as well. My quick scan gave me this result, so I may have sharecount botched. I showed Yum @ 6X sales, MCD @ 9X sales, CMG @ 7X sales, SHAK @ 5X sales - with PTLO @ 2X sales
Spekulatius Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 I think the right sharecount is 71.5M shares outstanding after the IPO based on 33.6M/0.47=71.5M shares. the yahoo/finance market cap is off. I guess they only count the A shares but not the LLC units, which are economically equivalent. Their NPS is on par with Chick Fill-A. I think their locations are more expensive. it not an explosive grower, the add a few locations every year. Revenues are ~ 516M / year if you annualize their 6 month revenue numbers. I am getting an EV of 71.5M (shares)*$30+~300M debt = $2445M EV so a P/S of 4.74. Please feel free to correct me where I am wrong. Probably a ~10% grower. It's not a cheap stock, imo. 71.5*30+300
cubsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 ^ Thanks for the help guys - I blew the share count. So your P/S of 4.74 is accurate. So not so cheap.. PTLO will grow. The average Portillo does around $7.5M in sales vs MCD average around $2.5+. Footprint is larger. Catering business is significant and drive through business is spectacular and very well run. One to keep an eye on. Company has talked about 10% new openings per year.
Gregmal Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 I think one thing to keep in mind with restaurant growers, is that a good concept is incredibly valuable and you probably dont want them when theyre "cheap". The mature ones, sure, but thats a different type of investment. The early stage runway stuff I think is very different and a powerful brand can work almost by itself. Wingstop baffled me for years. Wings and tenders, WTF. But cult following, small store base to grow off, and solid execution made it work. If one wants to chase cheap garbage TAST has been luring value investors for years. However I think a more appropriate comp here might be something like SHAK. Especially as blue state migration continues, these awesome city concepts have room to move around and will undoubtedly have fans in much of the country dying for their hometown favorites. With 70 stores or so they say 10% a year but frankly I think if things keep ticking up they can pull forward a lot of growth and surprise to the upside. Not a big position at all, just took a starter today, but I like the idea.
Value_Added Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: I think the right sharecount is 71.5M shares outstanding after the IPO based on 33.6M/0.47=71.5M shares. the yahoo/finance market cap is off. I guess they only count the A shares but not the LLC units, which are economically equivalent. Their NPS is on par with Chick Fill-A. I think their locations are more expensive. it not an explosive grower, the add a few locations every year. Revenues are ~ 516M / year if you annualize their 6 month revenue numbers. I am getting an EV of 71.5M (shares)*$30+~300M debt = $2445M EV so a P/S of 4.74. Please feel free to correct me where I am wrong. This makes perfect sense and I see that number represented here: However, my continued confusion comes from their most recent quarterly filing in which they mention this reverse split that occurred around the time of their IPO yet wasn't mentioned in their IPO filing. Their IPO filing which you've posted above, shows about 378m shares outstanding, yet it also shows as I've highlighted from the same document that the total number of LLC units is 71.5m. Now if we look at the newest quarterly report and account for the 7.4 to 1 reverse split they mention, it equals roughly the number of shares outstanding in this quarterly filing (51m). The only way to get there is to start with 378m shares... I'm not a guru at financial statements and am by no means correcting anyone, but it really seems there are discrepancies between the filings. Are you all pretty certain that its 71.5m and it is just misrepresented on the newest filing? Trying to dig into the business and this is throwing me off.
Spekulatius Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 Well, 378M/7.4 (reverse split)= 51M shares + 20M (IPO offering) also gets you to ~71M shares. Different path but same result.
Value_Added Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Spekulatius said: Well, 378M/7.4 (reverse split)= 51M shares + 20M (IPO offering) also gets you to ~71M shares. Different path but same result. PERFECT, thanks. I knew I was missing something, but just couldn't figure it out. I appreciate it, I always learn a lot from this forum.
Gregmal Posted January 12, 2022 Posted January 12, 2022 IPO was 23m but yea. What spek said basically
ERICOPOLY Posted January 14, 2022 Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:26 PM, Gregmal said: Especially as blue state migration continues, these awesome city concepts have room to move around and will undoubtedly have fans in much of the country dying for their hometown favorites. With 70 stores or so they say 10% a year but frankly I think if things keep ticking up they can pull forward a lot of growth and surprise to the upside. Not a big position at all, just took a starter today, but I like the idea. Have you looked at Dutch Bros (BROS)? There is always a line at my local Dutch Bros. This is an interesting story: https://archive.totalfratmove.com/apparently-dutch-bros-coffee-is-making-college-kids-rich-af/
Gregmal Posted January 14, 2022 Posted January 14, 2022 Have not heard of Dutch Bros. More good reading to do!
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