What are you buying today?

[LearningMachine]

3 hours ago, wabuffo said:

I like to sell at the money puts for stocks I like.  In this case, the premium was too juicy to resist, and puts me into the stock at my buy price if I am put the shares

Selling naked puts is almost always a bad strategy.

1) if one is selling puts at a strike price above one's estimate of IV, then one is not getting adequately compensated in terms of premium for the risk being taken.   IOW - one is selling insurance way too cheaply.

2) if the strike price of the naked put is at or below your estimate of IV, then you are better off buying the underlying stock. Why bother with the naked puts in this case?

There could be times where selling puts makes sense - but usually because someone like Buffett is accumulating the underlying stock.  He has done this in the past when he believes he is buying a stock trading below IV and wants to lock in the price for continued accumulation beyond the immediate term of his buying (eg, KO in 1993-94 and BNSF in 2009-10).

wabuffo

Indeed, it can make sense for someone like Buffett accumulating shares as it probably lets him keep low percentage of trading volume he is buying in order to not ring up the price.  

From my perspective, I see two issues with selling puts:
#1.  Good businesses don't go on sale at good prices all the time.  If you only sell puts, and don't get put on, you might miss the opportunity of acquiring an amazing business at an amazing price. 

#2. Another great business might go on sale during your put duration.  If you already have your cash earmarked for being put on, during the period of your put duration, you might miss an opportunity of acquiring another amazing business at an amazing price. 

Edited April 3, 2021 by LearningMachine

[Gregmal]

On 7/31/2020 at 1:52 PM, Gregmal said:

Bought some GLDD. May write it up later. Very interesting company. Turn around story, high barriers to entry, lots of free call options on various businesses/developments, including global warming.

Listed by Barrons as one of the top infrastructure plays poised to benefit from Joseph's spending bonanza. Up nearly 80% inside of 8 months. Think its still got room to run. More Gregmalpha. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

I added to MKO.V and FISH.V last week. Mako is a gold miner in Nicaragua and Sailfish has a royalty on Mako's mine along with some other assets.

I also went on a podcast and talked about them along with ATTO and ELF.TO. 

Mako stuff starts at 34:30

https://twitter.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1378157840049782784?s=20

 

[Ulverski]

On 4/3/2021 at 6:20 PM, MattR said:

Hey, do you have more information on both? Their numbers look great.

Hey MattR, yes of course.

PhosAgro

It's fertilizer producer from Russia with the best phosphate ore. Rich in phosphate and with low cadmium, arsenic and lead levels. It means that they don't have to do additional work to make their product the best quality and safe for people = low cost of production. They're making money even when fertilizer prices are low. Margins range was between 23-49% depending on the cycle. Own distribution network, so no middlemen, more money for the company.

Most of their products goes to China and India. It's possible that they increase sales to Europe, becasue EU wants to introduce more strict norms limiting alloved cadmium levels in fertilizers. That will hit PhosAgro's competition. Also they don't have to worry about US sanctions.

Have good, conservative management, with Jim Rogers on the board, concentrated on the business - not only on the stock performance - and rewarding shareholders with dividend (39-59% payout ratio). They grow 5-10% per year, passed ivestment peak and are planning to increase production till 2025 (Volkov project).

Long story short. Very good business and inflation hedge. Best quality and low cost producer in one. You can't be wrong with that. 

Risk is Russia and currency issues, but to be fair I'm more afraid of that what is happening in USA (FED printing, Biden's taxes and spendings...) than what might or might not happen in Russia.

FLOW

There is really good article about them on Seeking Alpha.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395073-flow-traders-portfolio-hedge-pays-fat-dividends

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by Ulverski

[DumDumInvestor]

49 minutes ago, Ulverski said:

Hey MattR, yes of course.

PhosAgro

It's fertilizer producer from Russia with the best phosphate ore. Rich in phosphate and with low cadmium, arsenic and lead levels. It means that they don't have to do additional work to make their product the best quality and safe for people = low cost of production. They're making money even when fertilizer prices are low. Margins range was between 23-49% depending on the cycle. Own distribution network, so no middlemen, more money for the company.

Most of their products goes to China and India. It's possible that they increase sales to Europe, becasue EU wants to introduce more strict norms limiting alloved cadmium levels in fertilizers. That will hit PhosAgro's competition. Also they don't have to worry about US sanctions.

Have good, conservative management, with Jim Rogers on the board, concentrated on the business - not only on the stock performance - and rewarding shareholders with dividend (39-59% payout ratio). They grow 5-10% per year, passed ivestment peak and are planning to increase production till 2025 (Volkov project).

Long story short. Very good business and inflation hedge. Best quality and low cost producer in one. You can't be wrong with that. 

Risk is Russia and currency issues, but to be fair I'm more afraid of that what is happening in USA (FED printing, Biden's taxes and spendings...) than what might or might not happen in Russia.

FLOW

There is really good article about them on Seeking Alpha.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395073-flow-traders-portfolio-hedge-pays-fat-dividends

 

Investing in Russia is insanity.

Potential new war in Ukraine and sanctions. Any business in Russia can be easily destroy by Putin and his close friends. Checkout what happened with Durov, founder of Telegram or what happened with Chichvarkin,  Michael Calvey and others. Checkout what happened with ruble in past 5 years add to this that Russia is more interesting in cheap ruble because it sells oil in $. In nearest couple of years 1$ will be 100 rubles, for sure.

To invest in Russia you really need to know that market very well.

Several Russian investors who live in Russia do not touch that market at all. I know quite well what happens there and I know the language and I would never invest in that country while there Putin in power.

[Ulverski]

1 hour ago, DumDumInvestor said:

Investing in Russia is insanity.

Potential new war in Ukraine and sanctions. Any business in Russia can be easily destroy by Putin and his close friends. Checkout what happened with Durov, founder of Telegram or what happened with Chichvarkin,  Michael Calvey and others. Checkout what happened with ruble in past 5 years add to this that Russia is more interesting in cheap ruble because it sells oil in $. In nearest couple of years 1$ will be 100 rubles, for sure.

To invest in Russia you really need to know that market very well.

Several Russian investors who live in Russia do not touch that market at all. I know quite well what happens there and I know the language and I would never invest in that country while there Putin in power.

I'm aware of the risks. I'm Polish. We were 'Russophobes' before it became european trend. Don't know this stories, but the one with Yukos and Khodorkovsky isn't probably far away.

Insanity is also investing in China. Yet Dalio, Munger, Buffet and Li Lu are doing it. Top tier investors will tell you that investing in US market at those levels is insanity too. Not to mention USD devaluation etc. IMHO there is no safe haven anymore (not from my perspective). I'm sure that if I keep my money on the bank account they will loose purchasing power at least 5% in a year. Thats the only guarantee I have. What I can do about it is to look for good businesses that I feel comfortable about.

If 1$ will be 100 rubles than great. PhosAgro is selling in USD.

Edited April 5, 2021 by Ulverski

[MattR]

13 minutes ago, Ulverski said:

I'm aware of the risks. I'm Polish. We were 'Russophobes' before it became european trend. Don't know this stories, but the one with Yukos and Khodorkovsky isn't probably far away.

Insanity is also investing in China. Yet Dalio, Munger, Buffet and Li Lu are doing it. Top tier investors will tell you that investing in US market at those levels is insanity too. Not to mention USD devaluation etc. IMHO there is no safe haven anymore (not from my perspective). The only thing I can do is to look for good businesses that I feel comfortable about.

If 1$ will be 100 rubles than great. PhosAgro is selling in USD.

Thanks for the info on Both businesses. Being from Austria, I am also sceptical of Russia, but I still am invested in Gazprom.

Will buy more British American Tobacco today.

[fareastwarriors]

Added some Ether...

 

 

[Mephistopheles]

On 4/3/2021 at 1:01 PM, wabuffo said:

I like to sell at the money puts for stocks I like.  In this case, the premium was too juicy to resist, and puts me into the stock at my buy price if I am put the shares

I think one has to be very careful with this strategy.  A closer look indicates that selling naked puts is almost always a bad strategy.

1) if one is selling puts at a strike price above one's estimate of IV, then one is not getting adequately compensated in terms of premium for the risk being taken.   IOW - one is selling insurance way too cheaply.

2) if the strike price of the naked put is at or below your estimate of IV, then you are better off buying the underlying stock. Why bother with the naked puts in this case?

There could be times where selling puts makes sense - but usually because someone like Buffett is accumulating the underlying stock.  He has done this in the past when he believes he is buying a stock trading below IV and wants to lock in the price for continued accumulation beyond the immediate term of his buying (eg, KO in 1993-94 and BNSF in 2009-10).

wabuffo

I think selling puts can be beneficial in a situation where the IV is crazy high. Here you may not really care to own the stock but you can still make good money. For instance on Viacom last week I sold a few short term puts ATM $45 strike that expired last week and on. The one that expired last week I kept almost all of the premium as profit.

The other one, expires on 4/23, I sold on 3/29 when the stock was $46, and today it closed below $43 yet I am still in the black. Most of the profit is from the IV collapse and some of it in the time value factor. (Though tomorrow I will probably be in the red).

But, here's a stock which I think is ok to own at $45 but I am not thrilled about it. I am betting not on valuation, rather against volatility.

Hoping to sell some $40s tomorrow depending on IV as CS and Nomura unwind.

Edited April 6, 2021 by Mephistopheles

[Gregmal]

^^Yup. I generally like to go anywhere from a week to maybe a month or so out, and 15-20% or so out of the money, at least on things I wouldnt mind being put, but yea. Selling puts like that is just playing dealer at the casino. Everyone I know was going crazy trying to figure out how to short or buy puts on GME the past 3 months. Answer was simple. Just sell puts. All day. Money in the bank. I remember getting like $5 per share for some April $20s back in early February. $4 for March $15 puts. Got 45c for some July $4 puts. 10c on the $1 puts. It was beautiful. Best part is when the stock went from $340 to $50 and the puts still lost 50%+ of their value. 

Edited April 6, 2021 by Gregmal

[shamelesscloner]

BABA... Charlie gave me the nudge I needed

[formthirteen]

More BABA. Now a full position.

[Fahrweid]

BABA followed Charlie in this Business. (Found it intressting bevor, but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger... Thx Charlie)

[Longtermlens]

BABA - approaching full allocation for me. 

[DooDiligence]

BABA because...

[Agrippa07]

added to BABA  

[Ross812]

Added to BTI and RPAR. Added BABA a couple weeks ago - I want to be in the club too... 

[wabuffo]

Keep in mind FWIW that Munger's foreign investments haven't done as well as his WFC, BAC, USB US bank investments (or that 10% corporate bond that he bought and sold).

- Posco (PKX) - sold most of it at break-even to a loss.  Did a writedown during his ownership for acctg purposes.

- 005389.KS (Hyundai Pfd 3) - sold all of it at a loss.  Did a writedown during his ownership for acctg purposes.

- 1211.HK - his initial purchases back in 2011 didn't do great and he wrote down most of it to FMV.  Its performance has largely been due to its big pop in 2020 - otherwise its been "meh" for most of his holding period.  He sold probably 15% of it last year IIRC (too early - before the pop).  Probably sold another 25% this Q to fund the BABA purchase.

Not saying it won't work out.  Just pointing out the mixed-track record of buying/selling Asian stocks.

wabuffo

Edited April 6, 2021 by wabuffo

[Lakesider]

Bought more BABA 

[Gregmal]

BABA is the new Verizon it seems.

[Spekulatius]

Interesting crowd behavior. I don't think Munger would have anything to add that hasn't been discussed before as far as pro's and con's of BABA are concerned. Li Liu's opinion I think count's more.

[cubsfan]

On 10/28/2020 at 12:40 PM, wabuffo said:

NVEC - small cap ($225m mkt cap).  Consistent, after-tax net income margins of 45-55% year-after-year.  Dividend yield of 8.5% currently.  Nice, safe, boring, little Minnesota tech company.

 

wabuffo

Sold rest of NVEC today - thanks for the great idea Wabuffo!

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, wabuffo said:

Keep in mind FWIW that Munger's foreign investments haven't done as well as his WFC, BAC, USB US bank investments (or that 10% corporate bond that he bought and sold).

- Posco (PKX) - sold most of it at break-even to a loss.  Did a writedown during his ownership for acctg purposes.

- 005389.KS (Hyundai Pfd 3) - sold all of it at a loss.  Did a writedown during his ownership for acctg purposes.

- 1211.HK - his initial purchases back in 2011 didn't do great and he wrote down most of it to FMV.  Its performance has largely been due to its big pop in 2020 - otherwise its been "meh" for most of his holding period.  He sold probably 15% of it last year IIRC (too early - before the pop).  Probably sold another 25% this Q to fund the BABA purchase.

Not saying it won't work out.  Just pointing out the mixed-track record of buying/selling Asian stocks.

wabuffo

I sized it accordingly (smallish at 1.6%) mainly because of the aforementioned issue re: Chinese ADR’s.

www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sec-foreigncompanies/chinese-tech-stocks-slump-as-u-s-sec-begins-rollout-of-law-aimed-at-delisting-idUSKBN2BG2AI

I think it’s worth a shot since I missed out on Amazon.

[wabuffo]

Sold rest of NVEC today - thanks for the great idea Wabuffo!

[ourkid8]

Additional BABA