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MattR

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Everything posted by MattR

  1. His partners yanked the money out and it was only through big wrestling that he convinced them to stay on for one more year, in which he had a good result. If the partners yank their capital because of the drawdowns, your fund has blown up.
  2. I know that he blew up once. He said so in one podcast. That doesn't make him a bad manager. Given what he holds and the results that he got, shows that he is much better at risk management. Everyone learns. Munger basically blew up his Partnership as well. Do we say that he is a bad investor?
  3. THe market is as bifurcated as it was in 2000. Tech stocks are insanely expensive, and ex US and old industries are among the lowest valuations in history.
  4. Doordash, Palantir, MongoDB, Duolingo, Affirm, Upstart, Carvana, Coinbase, Broadcom, Nvidia, Sentiment is that Apple and Microsoft never goes down.
  5. I mean sure, but we are talking about stocks trading at over 100x earnings here. So they already did not price in the 5% yields anyway. PPI is negative today. Bad news is good news I guess.
  6. This market is completely insane. Tesla added 150b in market cap in less than 15 days, Nvda over 250b on basically no news. Every company with a terrible balance sheet is rising as though rates have already been cut. At the same time rate cut expectations are for March. We had the same this year as well, but rates rose and stock rose in tandem.
  7. Seeking Alpha has gone down slowly in quality and rapidly since mid 2022. Many of the deep value guys or bankruptcy articles don't get accepted anymore and it seems to focus more on clicks than good ideas
  8. I think it should be Philip Morris.
  9. I am a bit biased, because I write my own substack (though free, and will always stay that way - but maybe I add a support tier as a few have asked). I was subscribed to quite a lot of them, several paid - but I often stopped subscribing to them. IMO a regular schedule creates as you already pointed out, content gaps and these are not easily filled with content. I was subscribed to around 50 substacks, not it is just around 15.
  10. Chat GPT4 is getting plugins. So people can develop plugins for it. Already exisiting one is Wolfram Alpha. Chat GPT4 was bad with math, but now it wont. Still in Beta, but we should get it in the next few months as plus user.
  11. CVNA, CACC, WIX, CRM, TRUP. These are either or were extremely overvalued, partly fraudulent (CVNA, CACC, TRUP in trying to pass as subscription instead of insurance). Or they have no moat (WIX) . It is hard to make a worse portfolio IMO
  12. My best year so far. +144.7%. Gains were mostly through BTU , YPF, UAN and BTI calls and through the short side being short Carvana, Tesla, and pretty much all the ark names. Hope to not have a 30% loss next year, but probabilities are high that it will happen.
  13. MattR

    ChatGPT

    I am in DevOps and it is perfect for being a templating enginge and exactly what I need most of the time and especially takes away the work I hate most of the time (setting up the basics)
  14. Yeah, it looks good on first site, but I am much faster using custom search engines in chrome. For example typing sec and the ticker brings me to the sec filings, tv brings me to tradingview. Sadly it does not work for Tikr, but for many others its perfect and awesome.
  15. I think thinking fast and slow is the most overrated book of all time. It should just be a blog post with a few examples. The summary of the book, is better than the book itself.
  16. His interviews are basically the same since a decade. How is he one of the greatest investors of all time? He did not come even close to beat the market the last 10 years. He doesn't republish his book despite huge demand. Druckenmiller's interview at Sohn this year was much more insightful.
  17. That is why I don't buy US oil companies, just coal. My oil exposure is outside the US in Canada, Brazil, Peru and Argentinia. There are still risks, but those are priced in mostly.
  18. Q2 ends at 30.06. Historically the selling has started 2 weeks before the end. While energy has gained some momentum, it is still far from boat fully loaded. I agree that oil might have some downturn, but that is a mixture of a bit of hype and window dressing. Look at the inflows. ARKK had inflows of a single day, that were higher than the xle inflows of several months. Look at the hedge funds, they are still deep into tech and FANGs. Oil was around 90$ before the war. Given the current valuations of the oil stocks, they would still be very cheap. Yeah everyone on Twitter calls for $300 oil, but the oil companies don't need or even want that. I don't think it will, and I think we will see the ICE bans being lifted soon, due to the even higher prices on the metals. Also there is so much use for fossil fuels currently, its crazy. Look at the 2020 oil usage. The whole world locked down and there was a 9% drop in oil demand. Actually crazy. But I agree that re-investments are impaired through policies and ESG goals.
  19. End of Quarter window dressing. This pattern was noticeably in BTU for the last two year, seems it has spilled over other energy stock as well.
  20. I am getting bullish precious metals. I believe that the market prices in a lot of rate hikes - but I think the fed won't do them and inflation is here to stay. They can't break the system, and a lot would break at 5% fed fund rate.
  21. Found that on Twitter: This engineer who thinks the AI is sentient probably also thinks the stripper at his bachelor party really liked him
  22. If you like history, the Hardcore History episodes are awesome. Wrath of Khans and the one about World War 1 are crazy good. Each episode is about 4h and one series is about 20.
  23. Still not a great business, but he ignored the cash and that they have stable customers (mainly libraries). Now it is pretty highly valued, but around 20 it was cheap
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