Is another burst of inflation coming?

[SharperDingaan]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

It's how the dogs have been trained. Anything up...equals inflation. After the massive oil rally...we're at a 3 handle....so anticlimactic given all the noise. 

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate#:~:text=Basic Info,in price over a year.

 

Nah .... millions clearly showing that inflation is here, and in your face ... yet not seeing it in the charts ..... is evidence that the wrong things are being measured, in the wrong time frames. Economists measuring what they can vs what they should be, and misinterpreting results.

 

That grocery budget ... AFTER SUBSTITUTION ... should show minimal inflation. Had you measured the change in the cost of the SAME basket of goods BEFORE substitution (definition of inflation) ... the results would be very different.

 

All of a sudden ... white is the new black !!!!! 

The opportunity 

 

SD  

 

 

 

Edited April 10 by SharperDingaan

[tede02]

2 hours ago, Spooky said:

This chart really says it all. CPI is up but just back to levels we saw recently. Core is still above target but not affected since it ignores food and energy. Meanwhile WSJ headline is “Inflation Soared”. Hopefully elevated energy prices don’t stick around too long.

 

Saw that today. Pretty much what one would expect in terms of an uptick. Next 3-6 months will be very interesting. It is peculiar how different the CPI numbers are from the Truflation figures. I haven't studied the methodology of each to any significant extent but it is a bit curious. 

[Gregmal]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Nah .... millions clearly showing that inflation is here, and in your face ... yet not seeing it in the charts ..... is evidence that the wrong things are being measured, in the wrong time frames. Economists measuring what they can vs what they should be, and misinterpreting results.

 

That grocery budget ... AFTER SUBSTITUTION ... should show minimal inflation. Had you measured the change in the cost of the SAME basket of goods BEFORE substitution (definition of inflation) ... the results would be very different.

 

All of a sudden ... white is the new black !!!!! 

The opportunity 

 

SD  

 

 

 

There’s always give and take. The entire skew this month was energy related which unless you’ve been living under a rock, shouldn’t be a surprise. 

[Hoodlum]

I am more concerned about the damage to processing facilities as the straight will eventually reopen. Also, yesterday Iran hit a major East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.  The longer this goes on, the greater the risk is to facilities/pipelines that will impact production over the medium term.  Opening of the straight is not the risk. 

[dealraker]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

There’s always give and take. The entire skew this month was energy related which unless you’ve been living under a rock, shouldn’t be a surprise. 

Unlike Warren Buffett who considers inflation the "swindler" I think business profits over time always take inflation along with them to an equal degree, that in the end inflation is a non-event as to business value.

 

I have not spent one single moment in my entire life worried about inflation in that it would ruin the long term value of my investments.  That's over 50 years and includes the early 80's 20% rates.

 

I occasionally make inflation comments, did that recently.  I think inflation is headed higher for a number of reasons.  I also think Trump is going to run deficits up like a rocket ship.

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Unlike Warren Buffett who considers inflation the "swindler" I think business profits over time always take inflation along with them to an equal degree, that in the end inflation is a non-event as to business value.

 

I have not spent one single moment in my entire life worried about inflation in that it would ruin the long term value of my investments.  That's over 50 years and includes the early 80's 20% rates.

 

I occasionally make inflation comments, did that recently.  I think inflation is headed higher for a number of reasons.  I also think Trump is going to run deficits up like a rocket ship.

My instinct here is that inflation is almost always a byproduct of short term disruptions or a hot economy. 2021 was both. Those things are an easy excuse to raise prices, and then when the unwind occurs, this translates back into margin strength. These types of businesses(the ones you and I favor) almost never lower prices. The only economic scenarios that really require lowering prices are serious recessions or depressions.
 

So again to your point, those businesses are exactly what you want to own. Both in general, and if you’re concerned with inflation.  

[dealraker]

11 hours ago, Gregmal said:

My instinct here is that inflation is almost always a byproduct of short term disruptions or a hot economy. 2021 was both. Those things are an easy excuse to raise prices, and then when the unwind occurs, this translates back into margin strength. These types of businesses(the ones you and I favor) almost never lower prices. The only economic scenarios that really require lowering prices are serious recessions or depressions.
 

So again to your point, those businesses are exactly what you want to own. Both in general, and if you’re concerned with inflation.  

Greg my deceased father-in-law was a bright man with a very nicely paying job with pension.  He retired early and lived to 83, but along the way he managed his money not to lose.  With the solid pension he just did the bank CD thing for years.  He always knew where to get the best rates and he'd broadcast that every time you were in his presence.

 

He was a domineering sort, going to his home was hell on earth, he dominated conversations and the slightest disagreement set him off.  On top of that he was a micro detail thinker, facts were his display of mental superiority.  He, like my wife, was on the spectrum but unlike Angela he refused to admit such.  This personality trail often comes with huge anxiety, hence is conversation control and money management decisions.  I once said, "We spent time in the Black Mountains (Germany)" meaning of course the Black Forest.  20 years later he was still reminding me of my stupidity.

 

I tolerated his garbage, Angela literally despised him with of course the guilt (thankfully in her case it was a small amount of guilt) that comes along with such a view.  But the view was earned as Angela is literally brilliant yet he found ways to embarrass her in public a much as he could and get away with it.  He did the same with his wife, the end of his life was where he could walk...but chose not to walk so that he could further dominate his spouse- that was ten years of wheelchair life.  His big thing early in the years was to buy us elaborate Christmas gifts (we wouldn't let him contribute to us otherwise, it came with control) to make sure we knew who the big man was in the family.

 

But anyway I remember decades ago thinking that he and I had the same net worth outside of his pension.  This of course became a "competition" for me, I badly want to set the record straight (seriously LOL when I type this) one day.  So it ended up that a couple of weeks before he went to hospice, his mind had not declined one bit but his body was toast (from sitting for ten years in a wheelchair).  He's been going over his estate with Angela...so....At a family meal I "broke down" (with a bit of controlled rage LOL) so to speak and spoke my mind, politely telling him that Angela's net worth was 5 times his and mine was 50 times his.

 

I nailed the MF's ass and I assure you if you knew the guy you'd say, "Charlie you should have rubbed it in far more."  

 

But anyway, my father-in-law's lack of net worth growth is the outcome of fearing inflation and fearing stock market falls and all that comes of it.  Like I say, this man was as bright as they come in the detail picture...but he was by far the dumbest SOB living as to the overall picture of finance.

[73 Reds]

26 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Greg my deceased father-in-law was a bright man with a very nicely paying job with pension.  He retired early and lived to 83, but along the way he managed his money not to lose.  With the solid pension he just did the bank CD thing for years.  He always knew where to get the best rates and he'd broadcast that every time you were in his presence.

 

He was a domineering sort, going to his home was hell on earth, he dominated conversations and the slightest disagreement set him off.  On top of that he was a micro detail thinker, facts were his display of mental superiority.  He, like my wife, was on the spectrum but unlike Angela he refused to admit such.  This personality trail often comes with huge anxiety, hence is conversation control and money management decisions.  I once said, "We spent time in the Black Mountains (Germany)" meaning of course the Black Forest.  20 years later he was still reminding me of my stupidity.

 

I tolerated his garbage, Angela literally despised him with of course the guilt (thankfully in her case it was a small amount of guilt) that comes along with such a view.  But the view was earned as Angela is literally brilliant yet he found ways to embarrass her in public a much as he could and get away with it.  He did the same with his wife, the end of his life was where he could walk...but chose not to walk so that he could further dominate his spouse- that was ten years of wheelchair life.  His big thing early in the years was to buy us elaborate Christmas gifts (we wouldn't let him contribute to us otherwise, it came with control) to make sure we knew who the big man was in the family.

 

But anyway I remember decades ago thinking that he and I had the same net worth outside of his pension.  This of course became a "competition" for me, I badly want to set the record straight (seriously LOL when I type this) one day.  So it ended up that a couple of weeks before he went to hospice, his mind had not declined one bit but his body was toast (from sitting for ten years in a wheelchair).  He's been going over his estate with Angela...so....At a family meal I "broke down" (with a bit of controlled rage LOL) so to speak and spoke my mind, politely telling him that Angela's net worth was 5 times his and mine was 50 times his.

 

I nailed the MF's ass and I assure you if you knew the guy you'd say, "Charlie you should have rubbed it in far more."  

 

But anyway, my father-in-law's lack of net worth growth is the outcome of fearing inflation and fearing stock market falls and all that comes of it.  Like I say, this man was as bright as they come in the detail picture...but he was by far the dumbest SOB living as to the overall picture of finance.

Reads like a common depression-era investment mentality.  We both have surely known many such individuals, most of whom are gone now.  

[Gregmal]

Indeed, both my grandfathers were apparently like that. One, a big 4 accountant, back in the day style, meaning his entire "career" was spent at the same big ass, well paying firm. The other, high level exec at the same company, that took on several different names, but ultimately is what is now Otis Elevator, doing what was then not that common, although now moreso....making fucktons of money as the "international guy"....constantly uprooting his family to live, all expenses paid, in expat resort towns across Europe and South/Central America....both ended up having very nice homes, fully paid for in cash, no debt, and a stack of......muni bonds! The Depression was ever present on their minds....no convincing them otherwise. Towards the end of their lives, the majority of their net worths were.....their homes! Once the estates got settled out, amongst their 2 and 3 children....whats left? Enough for each to maybe buy an average-ish home or maybe 10,000 shares of JOE or something! 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

Greg my deceased father-in-law was a bright man with a very nicely paying job with pension.  He retired early and lived to 83, but along the way he managed his money not to lose.  With the solid pension he just did the bank CD thing for years.  He always knew where to get the best rates and he'd broadcast that every time you were in his presence.

 

He was a domineering sort, going to his home was hell on earth, he dominated conversations and the slightest disagreement set him off.  On top of that he was a micro detail thinker, facts were his display of mental superiority.  He, like my wife, was on the spectrum but unlike Angela he refused to admit such.  This personality trail often comes with huge anxiety, hence is conversation control and money management decisions.  I once said, "We spent time in the Black Mountains (Germany)" meaning of course the Black Forest.  20 years later he was still reminding me of my stupidity.

 

I tolerated his garbage, Angela literally despised him with of course the guilt (thankfully in her case it was a small amount of guilt) that comes along with such a view.  But the view was earned as Angela is literally brilliant yet he found ways to embarrass her in public a much as he could and get away with it.  He did the same with his wife, the end of his life was where he could walk...but chose not to walk so that he could further dominate his spouse- that was ten years of wheelchair life.  His big thing early in the years was to buy us elaborate Christmas gifts (we wouldn't let him contribute to us otherwise, it came with control) to make sure we knew who the big man was in the family.

 

But anyway I remember decades ago thinking that he and I had the same net worth outside of his pension.  This of course became a "competition" for me, I badly want to set the record straight (seriously LOL when I type this) one day.  So it ended up that a couple of weeks before he went to hospice, his mind had not declined one bit but his body was toast (from sitting for ten years in a wheelchair).  He's been going over his estate with Angela...so....At a family meal I "broke down" (with a bit of controlled rage LOL) so to speak and spoke my mind, politely telling him that Angela's net worth was 5 times his and mine was 50 times his.

 

I nailed the MF's ass and I assure you if you knew the guy you'd say, "Charlie you should have rubbed it in far more."  

 

But anyway, my father-in-law's lack of net worth growth is the outcome of fearing inflation and fearing stock market falls and all that comes of it.  Like I say, this man was as bright as they come in the detail picture...but he was by far the dumbest SOB living as to the overall picture of finance.

 

45 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Reads like a common depression-era investment mentality.  We both have surely known many such individuals, most of whom are gone now.  

 

Yes, I've met numerous people like this...those personality traits aren't as unique as you would think.  We may actually be the outliers...not them!

 

As Reds said, a lot of it is built though their personal experiences earlier in life.  My aunt's husband was exactly the same.  Bullied his wife and children, often joked at the expense of others, believe only in a steady job and pension...not the stock market, and was extremely gruff and demanding. 

 

Weirdly, he was extremely good to the grandchildren, and grand-nephews/nieces.  He was just an ass to those close to him in age, and for some reason his own children.  Supposedly, his father was exactly the same way, and he witnessed a lot himself as the youngest in his large family of siblings.

 

Not sure about your father-in=law Dealmaker, but this uncle mellowed a bit with age.  He was quite the jerk until about 50, and then when his first grandchild was born, he mellowed somewhat over night.  I don't think his grandchildren had a clue what he was like previously...they just knew him as this new gentle version.  His children have a number of emotional issues with how they grew up, but as he mellowed, they have much fonder memories later in life as adults.

 

He also served with the British Army in Germany, so he had some outlandish conspiracy views and opinions about Israel and the United States, as he befriended many Germans and Brits back then.  Extremely regimented...he would have to eat his dinner at exactly the same time every day in the same dining chair...exact same portions...rarely overate...weighed within 10 pounds his entire life as an adult...extremely meticulous...would be asleep by 7:30pm and up by 5:30am every day...no polite "Can you do this?" to his children, just a really loud, gruff shout to wake them up early Saturday mornings to go rake the leaves and cut grass...all the other cousins would join in if we were staying over, as we would get yelled at indirectly! 

 

But he also did the important stuff...like live below your means...pay your bills on time...don't crave what others have.  So like your father-in-law, he had a paid off home, nice pension, good government benefits and no debt when he retired.  Not wealthy by any means, but he had all of the basic comforts with few worries.  A lot of people, especially anyone who saw, witnessed, experienced poverty or anything like a depression, tend to have that fear of investing going forward and think it is akin to gambling...which is isn't if done using an intellectual framework to reduce risk and buy undervalued assets.  Cheers! 

[dealraker]

28 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

 

Yes, I've met numerous people like this...those personality traits aren't as unique as you would think.  We may actually be the outliers...not them!

 

As Reds said, a lot of it is built though their personal experiences earlier in life.  My aunt's husband was exactly the same.  Bullied his wife and children, often joked at the expense of others, believe only in a steady job and pension...not the stock market, and was extremely gruff and demanding. 

 

Weirdly, he was extremely good to the grandchildren, and grand-nephews/nieces.  He was just an ass to those close to him in age, and for some reason his own children.  Supposedly, his father was exactly the same way, and he witnessed a lot himself as the youngest in his large family of siblings.

 

Not sure about your father-in=law Dealmaker, but this uncle mellowed a bit with age.  He was quite the jerk until about 50, and then when his first grandchild was born, he mellowed somewhat over night.  I don't think his grandchildren had a clue what he was like previously...they just knew him as this new gentle version.  His children have a number of emotional issues with how they grew up, but as he mellowed, they have much fonder memories later in life as adults.

 

He also served with the British Army in Germany, so he had some outlandish conspiracy views and opinions about Israel and the United States, as he befriended many Germans and Brits back then.  Extremely regimented...he would have to eat his dinner at exactly the same time every day in the same dining chair...exact same portions...rarely overate...weighed within 10 pounds his entire life as an adult...extremely meticulous...would be asleep by 7:30pm and up by 5:30am every day...no polite "Can you do this?" to his children, just a really loud, gruff shout to wake them up early Saturday mornings to go rake the leaves and cut grass...all the other cousins would join in if we were staying over, as we would get yelled at indirectly! 

 

But he also did the important stuff...like live below your means...pay your bills on time...don't crave what others have.  So like your father-in-law, he had a paid off home, nice pension, good government benefits and no debt when he retired.  Not wealthy by any means, but he had all of the basic comforts with few worries.  A lot of people, especially anyone who saw, witnessed, experienced poverty or anything like a depression, tend to have that fear of investing going forward and think it is akin to gambling...which is isn't if done using an intellectual framework to reduce risk and buy undervalued assets.  Cheers! 

Yes without venturing too far we encounter these types.  Dick never witnessed a family member play a sport or perform in any event despite having many accomplished descendents.  He was simply eaten alive by anxiety and seeming arrogance...who knows?  Unfortunately his wife Angela's mom spent her entire life pretending he cared and she made excuses for every absence.  The marriage relationship is what riled Angela the most, it was simply intolerable to be around.

Edited April 11 by dealraker

[Parsad]

13 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Yes without venturing too far we encounter these types.  Dick never witnessed a family member play a sport or perform in any event despite having many accomplished descendents.  He was simply eaten alive by anxiety and seeming arrogance...who knows?  Unfortunately his wife Angela's mom spent her entire life pretending he cared and she made excuses for every absence.  The marriage relationship is what riled Angela the most, it was simply intolerable to be around.

 

Exactly the same!  Brothers from another mother, perhaps.  Cheers!

[flesh]

I for the first time, 1.5 years ago, went through my parents financials, because my dad (82) has some form of dementia. He was always great at making money, climbed the corporate ladder at Union pacific for 22 years (grew up in omaha), made six figures in the 80's. He accepted a buy out for 450k in today's dollars when he was 48 and moved the family back to utah (where he and my mom grew up, mormon). Failed at a couple businesses then succeeded and did well for a couple decades. He was always right about everything, he always exaggerated, "I told you a million times I never exaggerate". Once I started doing well, he always competed with me financially, which seemed strange, aren't you supposed to be happy when your kid does well? He would repeatedly tell me about how well his investments had done, mainly his mobile home investments, which did do well, he bought about 20 of them for 8k, fixed them up for 5k, sold them for 40k on 15 year notes at 15%, the last one just finally paid off totally. However this was maybe 20% of his cash. 

 

After looking through his financials, I found out he's done nothing, literally nothing, with his money for at least 10 years. It was spread out in like 10 accounts which was such a pain to consolidate. Not even in money market accounts. Just cash. Some of the institutions were charging him 500/year to hold it (equity trust, ira self direct). 

 

I had to step in to their finances as my mom is smart but incompetent financially, very mormon patriarchal setup. My dad had recently built a ADU that cost 120k and he just stopped when it was half done and forgot about it, the neighbors were calling the city and so forth. My mom, had been letting my schizo brother, 48, living with them, spent 60k on their credit cards(he said hed pay it back from profits in the businesses he was starting, he hadn't worked for years) , mom said (a entrepreneur needs capital), wtf. 

 

Anyways, I asked my dad why he never invested any of the money, or let me help him or do it for him (every major downturn I'd say, please! please! buy something). He had sold his business and got a chunk of cash in 2008. Didn't invest a penny. He said he grew up poor on a farm in central utah and he was just always deathly afraid of being poor again. That's why he always worked so hard. He had tried investing in stocks, trading options that is, said he did well with it, however never more than 5% of liquidity was invested (I spent days over the years explaining why this was a bad idea for most if not all). I asked him to track his trades over 15 years ago so he KNEW what his actual returns were for a given strategy, he never did. He'd show me though and I'd see the account balance was 40k or something small. 

 

His alcoholic father would rent him to the farmers to drive their tractors starting when he was 10, his father would keep all the money and go on benders, disappearing for two weeks. His father died at 45 years old, was drunk, tripped and hit his head on the sink in a motel room. 

 

I tried to explain to him that for some companies or indexes that the entire country would have to fail for them to fail and if that happened his dollars wouldn't be worth anything anyway, to no avail. He was just scared to death and wouldn't admit it. 

 

It is hard to know how to invest their money now that I can, at their age, knowing they had 6 kids and half of them are broke, could really use a big payday and are too old for you to expect them to do it themselves. 

 

 

[Parsad]

11 minutes ago, flesh said:

I for the first time, 1.5 years ago, went through my parents financials, because my dad (82) has some form of dementia. He was always great at making money, climbed the corporate ladder at Union pacific for 22 years (grew up in omaha), made six figures in the 80's. He accepted a buy out for 450k in today's dollars when he was 48 and moved the family back to utah (where he and my mom grew up, mormon). Failed at a couple businesses then succeeded and did well for a couple decades. He was always right about everything, he always exaggerated, "I told you a million times I never exaggerate". Once I started doing well, he always competed with me financially, which seemed strange, aren't you supposed to be happy when your kid does well? He would repeatedly tell me about how well his investments had done, mainly his mobile home investments, which did do well, he bought about 20 of them for 8k, fixed them up for 5k, sold them for 40k on 15 year notes at 15%, the last one just finally paid off totally. However this was maybe 20% of his cash. 

 

After looking through his financials, I found out he's done nothing, literally nothing, with his money for at least 10 years. It was spread out in like 10 accounts which was such a pain to consolidate. Not even in money market accounts. Just cash. Some of the institutions were charging him 500/year to hold it (equity trust, ira self direct). 

 

I had to step in to their finances as my mom is smart but incompetent financially, very mormon patriarchal setup. My dad had recently built a ADU that cost 120k and he just stopped when it was half done and forgot about it, the neighbors were calling the city and so forth. My mom, had been letting my schizo brother, 48, living with them, spent 60k on their credit cards(he said hed pay it back from profits in the businesses he was starting, he hadn't worked for years) , mom said (a entrepreneur needs capital), wtf. 

 

Anyways, I asked my dad why he never invested any of the money, or let me help him or do it for him (every major downturn I'd say, please! please! buy something). He had sold his business and got a chunk of cash in 2008. Didn't invest a penny. He said he grew up poor on a farm in central utah and he was just always deathly afraid of being poor again. That's why he always worked so hard. He had tried investing in stocks, trading options that is, said he did well with it, however never more than 5% of liquidity was invested (I spent days over the years explaining why this was a bad idea for most if not all). I asked him to track his trades over 15 years ago so he KNEW what his actual returns were for a given strategy, he never did. He'd show me though and I'd see the account balance was 40k or something small. 

 

His alcoholic father would rent him to the farmers to drive their tractors starting when he was 10, his father would keep all the money and go on benders, disappearing for two weeks. His father died at 45 years old, was drunk, tripped and hit his head on the sink in a motel room. 

 

I tried to explain to him that for some companies or indexes that the entire country would have to fail for them to fail and if that happened his dollars wouldn't be worth anything anyway, to no avail. He was just scared to death and wouldn't admit it. 

 

It is hard to know how to invest their money now that I can, at their age, knowing they had 6 kids and half of them are broke, could really use a big payday and are too old for you to expect them to do it themselves. 

 

 

 

Hmmm...be careful!  If your father was wary of the market, some of your siblings may be as well.  Even though you are doing what you think is in their best interest, they may not think that way, because they don't see investing/stock market the same way.

 

I've become very tired of people asking me "what stocks look good" or "what are you investing in these days"?  Everybody is looking for a quick buck, or that speculative mentality is very draining to me.  So for years now, I've been telling anyone who asks:

 

"I always tell people to invest where they have an advantage.  If you are a real estate agent, you are getting listings and foreclosures ahead of the general public...you have an advantage in something you know well.  If you are a builder, you understand property repair, the costs involved, you know some trades...buy houses cheap, fix them, and resell for a healthy profit.  If you are a business owner, focus on how you can generate more revenues or add to your business...etc.  If you are a professional, work on self-growth and moving up to get more income to save.  Everyone should also take advantage of all the tax shelters available to them that reduce their taxable income.". 

 

That's it...I don't talk about stocks to them at all!  Zero, nada, zilch!  Cannot help you with stocks or what to buy...get lostI  Other than my one brother!

 

Regarding your problem, I would consolidate most of your father's assets into the fewest number of accounts.  Make it easy for your mother to manage...because what if you get hit by a bus tomorrow...who is going to help her?  Don't overcomplicate with stock market investments, etc...just make sure between any pensions/income and the funds on hand, she will have a comfortable life. 

 

If you or your siblings get anything after she passes...that's just icing on the cake for everyone!  Also, make sure your free-loading brother has zero access to the accounts and credit cards! 

 

Cheers! 

[73 Reds]

25 minutes ago, flesh said:

I for the first time, 1.5 years ago, went through my parents financials, because my dad (82) has some form of dementia. He was always great at making money, climbed the corporate ladder at Union pacific for 22 years (grew up in omaha), made six figures in the 80's. He accepted a buy out for 450k in today's dollars when he was 48 and moved the family back to utah (where he and my mom grew up, mormon). Failed at a couple businesses then succeeded and did well for a couple decades. He was always right about everything, he always exaggerated, "I told you a million times I never exaggerate". Once I started doing well, he always competed with me financially, which seemed strange, aren't you supposed to be happy when your kid does well? He would repeatedly tell me about how well his investments had done, mainly his mobile home investments, which did do well, he bought about 20 of them for 8k, fixed them up for 5k, sold them for 40k on 15 year notes at 15%, the last one just finally paid off totally. However this was maybe 20% of his cash. 

 

After looking through his financials, I found out he's done nothing, literally nothing, with his money for at least 10 years. It was spread out in like 10 accounts which was such a pain to consolidate. Not even in money market accounts. Just cash. Some of the institutions were charging him 500/year to hold it (equity trust, ira self direct). 

 

I had to step in to their finances as my mom is smart but incompetent financially, very mormon patriarchal setup. My dad had recently built a ADU that cost 120k and he just stopped when it was half done and forgot about it, the neighbors were calling the city and so forth. My mom, had been letting my schizo brother, 48, living with them, spent 60k on their credit cards(he said hed pay it back from profits in the businesses he was starting, he hadn't worked for years) , mom said (a entrepreneur needs capital), wtf. 

 

Anyways, I asked my dad why he never invested any of the money, or let me help him or do it for him (every major downturn I'd say, please! please! buy something). He had sold his business and got a chunk of cash in 2008. Didn't invest a penny. He said he grew up poor on a farm in central utah and he was just always deathly afraid of being poor again. That's why he always worked so hard. He had tried investing in stocks, trading options that is, said he did well with it, however never more than 5% of liquidity was invested (I spent days over the years explaining why this was a bad idea for most if not all). I asked him to track his trades over 15 years ago so he KNEW what his actual returns were for a given strategy, he never did. He'd show me though and I'd see the account balance was 40k or something small. 

 

His alcoholic father would rent him to the farmers to drive their tractors starting when he was 10, his father would keep all the money and go on benders, disappearing for two weeks. His father died at 45 years old, was drunk, tripped and hit his head on the sink in a motel room. 

 

I tried to explain to him that for some companies or indexes that the entire country would have to fail for them to fail and if that happened his dollars wouldn't be worth anything anyway, to no avail. He was just scared to death and wouldn't admit it. 

 

It is hard to know how to invest their money now that I can, at their age, knowing they had 6 kids and half of them are broke, could really use a big payday and are too old for you to expect them to do it themselves. 

 

 

That's a sad story but as alluded to earlier not that uncommon - especially among older folks.  Heck, I even have some of it in my genes, never really trusting management of public companies unless and until they earn such trust, while keeping much larger sums than necessary in bank accounts just to have money on a whim and a friendly banker always willing to do me a favor.   Your story shows how different most of us here on this Board are though.  Not offering you specific investment advice but somewhat of an analogy:  I was recently asked to review the finances of an elderly relative whose husband recently died.  She was left with more than enough to pay for independent living and all accompanying expenses yet she is afraid to death of taking any risk with her money.  I tried to explain the "risks" of not investing but she didn't want to hear anything of it.  I asked her who she was leaving her remaining assets to and she replied that her kids have enough and its all going to charity.  Made my job easy - money market funds for the entirety.  I did explain to her that she would have a tax bill as the result of taxable interest and to no one's surprise, when she met with her accountant she was not pleased with the amount she owed.  I told her there are alternative safe investment that generate less taxes but she said she liked watching the balance grow each month.  So to each, his or her own.

[SharperDingaan]

One of my grandfathers was the 6th of 7 kids from a Yorkshire family; the family were butchers, and for many years his bed was clean straw under the cutting table. His gifts were the ability to value livestock to within 2% of its meat value and accurately tumble numbers in his head as a human calculator.

 

At 16 he was kicked out of the family, fought his way into university, and ultimately became a CA, when there were very few of them. Immediately after WW II he was sent out to South Africa, as a director, to manage the empire. A lifelong pipe smoker, and a product of the changing times, he eventually passed away in very modest circumstances, in the UK.

 

Always stand-offish, growing up it was Canasta every Sunday afternoon, and chess twice a week. While out driving, first to accurately add up and multiply the numbers on random number plates. No idea he was also the silent partner at the city butchers buying the livestock, had colourful friends, and had a watchful eye on my bootlegging!

 

Once on my own, outside of Africa, I met some of his colourful friends; near all of them master’s at the dark arts of making things appear and disappear; my kind of people! All self made, and with little privilege outside of what was in their heads.

 

His generation was the flappers, and the young men forcing their way amongst the privileged.

Different way of doing things, and none of them shrinking violets.

 

SD

Edited April 14 by SharperDingaan

[Red Lion]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

One of my grandfathers was the 6th of 7 kids from a Yorkshire family; the family were butchers, and for many years his bed was clean straw under the cutting table. His gifts were the ability to value livestock to within 2% of its meat value and accurately tumble numbers in his head as a human calculator.

 

At 16 he was kicked out of the family, fought his way into university, and ultimately became an CA, when there very few of them. Immediately after WW II he was sent out to South Africa, as a director, to manage the empire. A lifelong pipe smoker, and a product of the changing times, he eventually passed away in very modest circumstances, in the UK.

 

Always stand-offish, growing up it was Canasta every Sunday afternoon, and chess twice a week. While out driving, first to accurately add up and multiply the numbers on random number plates. No idea he was also the silent partner at the city butchers buying the livestock, had colourful friends, and had a watchful eye on my bootlegging!

 

Once on my own, outside of Africa, I met some of his colourful friends; near all of them master’s at the dark arts of making things appear and disappear; my kind of people! All self made, and with little privilege outside of what was in their heads.

 

His generation was the flappers, and the young men forcing their way amongst the privileged.

Different way of doing things, and none of them shrinking violets.

 

SD

 

If this was a book, I'd read it. Sounds like a fascinating individual! 

[cubsfan]

15 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

If this was a book, I'd read it. Sounds like a fascinating individual! 

 

No doubt, SD like Deal & Parsad are great story tellers!

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

If this was a book, I'd read it. Sounds like a fascinating individual! 

 

He was 21, with feet flat as pancakes, played in a swing band with one of my uncles, and wrapping up at the University of Manchester when WW II broke out. Thereafter, there was an articling stint in Spain to become fluent in both German and Spanish, and an 'official secrets act' return to the UK for the rest of the war. Evenings spent managing a string of barrage balloons and anti-aircraft guns for fun.

 

When you're young, ambitious, free of societal restraints, and adventurous .... you meet all kinds of 'interesting' people , and he was no different. The tough bit is remembering what is/is-not within the law whilst transiting various jurisdictions, everything else is just fun !

 

SD

 

 

Edited April 13 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

On 4/11/2026 at 10:37 AM, Parsad said:

 

 

Yes, I've met numerous people like this...those personality traits aren't as unique as you would think.  We may actually be the outliers...not them!

 

As Reds said, a lot of it is built though their personal experiences earlier in life.  My aunt's husband was exactly the same.  Bullied his wife and children, often joked at the expense of others, believe only in a steady job and pension...not the stock market, and was extremely gruff and demanding. 

 

Weirdly, he was extremely good to the grandchildren, and grand-nephews/nieces.  He was just an ass to those close to him in age, and for some reason his own children.  Supposedly, his father was exactly the same way, and he witnessed a lot himself as the youngest in his large family of siblings.

 

Not sure about your father-in=law Dealmaker, but this uncle mellowed a bit with age.  He was quite the jerk until about 50, and then when his first grandchild was born, he mellowed somewhat over night.  I don't think his grandchildren had a clue what he was like previously...they just knew him as this new gentle version.  His children have a number of emotional issues with how they grew up, but as he mellowed, they have much fonder memories later in life as adults.

 

He also served with the British Army in Germany, so he had some outlandish conspiracy views and opinions about Israel and the United States, as he befriended many Germans and Brits back then.  Extremely regimented...he would have to eat his dinner at exactly the same time every day in the same dining chair...exact same portions...rarely overate...weighed within 10 pounds his entire life as an adult...extremely meticulous...would be asleep by 7:30pm and up by 5:30am every day...no polite "Can you do this?" to his children, just a really loud, gruff shout to wake them up early Saturday mornings to go rake the leaves and cut grass...all the other cousins would join in if we were staying over, as we would get yelled at indirectly! 

 

But he also did the important stuff...like live below your means...pay your bills on time...don't crave what others have.  So like your father-in-law, he had a paid off home, nice pension, good government benefits and no debt when he retired.  Not wealthy by any means, but he had all of the basic comforts with few worries.  A lot of people, especially anyone who saw, witnessed, experienced poverty or anything like a depression, tend to have that fear of investing going forward and think it is akin to gambling...which is isn't if done using an intellectual framework to reduce risk and buy undervalued assets.  Cheers! 

Everyone has somebody in the family like that. In ours, it was my paternal grandpa.

[Hoodlum]

I mentioned earlier in this thread regarding the the AI boom and the impact on memory and other component costs that will begin filtering down to businesses and consumers.  Well, Samsung today quietly increase prices of all existing phones and tablet by 10-15% due to these increasing memory costs.  Microsoft today did the same for their Surface laptops, increasing pricing by an average of 25% on all models! 

 

This is just the beginning and is likely spreading to network/security devices,  servers, cars, etc.  Basically anything with a cpu/memory will be impacted.  This will then soon filter down to service costs (ie hosting), maintenance costs, insurance, etc.   

 

Inflation was already in the cards for this year.  The oil price and all the other impacted related resources (Helium (Chip manufacturing), Fertilizer for Food, Petroleum for Plastics, etc) are just the cherry on top.

 

https://www.phonearena.com/news/samsung-us-price-hikes-galaxy-z-flip-7-tab-s11-ultra-tab-s10-fe-more_id179647

 

https://www.windowscentral.com/hardware/surface/microsoft-reveals-major-price-increases-for-all-surface-pro-laptop-pcs-as-ram-crisis-continues

 

 

Edited April 15 by Hoodlum

[LC]

Another factor is that most people don't really care about money. Once they have enough that they don't need to ever worry about it...well, they stop thinking about it and begin enjoying the freedom it brings. 

 

Not a lot of folks out there sitting around after dinner thinking about how they can continue to maintain and grow their purchasing power!

[KPO]

Interesting related data point. Their coating solutions touch a wide range of industrial and commercial products, including both new and repaired automobiles. This is how inflation sneaks into many products. 
 

https://investor.ppg.com/news/news-details/2026/PPG-announces-global-price-increase-of-up-to-20-already-in-progress/default.aspx

[scorpioncapital]

On 4/14/2026 at 7:31 PM, LC said:

Another factor is that most people don't really care about money. Once they have enough that they don't need to ever worry about it...well, they stop thinking about it and begin enjoying the freedom it brings. 

 

Not a lot of folks out there sitting around after dinner thinking about how they can continue to maintain and grow their purchasing power!

 

I doubt those folks will have money for long with that attitude. I mean holding cash is a road to the poor house eventually with all this inflation.

[LC]

1 minute ago, scorpioncapital said:

I doubt those folks will have money for long with that attitude. I mean holding cash is a road to the poor house eventually with all this inflation.

 

Yeah you're definitely right over a long period of time, I agree 100%.

 

That said - I have seen a lot of boomers in their late 70s,80s...they are sitting on a few million and it's mostly conservatively invested. Bonds, t-bills...

And these folks are spending maybe 75k/year in living expenses? Everything's been paid off years ago, they're not spending like their 40 raising a family...so even 3M earning 5% is earning well in advance of their living expenses. 

 

Definitely not optimal but I think it's fairly common in the older generations.