'23-'24 hidden stock purchase ideas

[nsx5200]

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stock-purchase-431172f6

 

"When Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its U.S. equity holdings as of Sept. 30 via its quarterly 13-F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission in mid November, it had asked the regulator for confidential treatment for one or more stocks."

"Barron’s has written about the Berkshire mystery purchase and speculated that it was a financial company based on disclosure in Berkshire’s third-quarter 10-Q report showing an increase of over $1 billion in the cost basis of its equity holdings in financial stocks. 

The ultimate position in the company could total $5 billion or more."

 

Any idea?  Trying to see what companies might be in this space, and see if the idea can be reverse engineered.

 

 

[yesman182]

I have wondered about the reverse engineering aspect as well. Presumably he is going to have 9% of some company. How are those shares accounted for when you see a list of a companies largest holding. 
 

Does each company need to file a list of its largest holding?

 

my ideas would be

 AIG

DFS

 

[John Hjorth]

30 minutes ago, yesman182 said:

... How are those shares accounted for when you see a list of a companies largest holding. ...

 

@yesman182,

 

Where and when? - What do you mean?

[Whensthepaintdry?]

I also had thought DFS 

[longterminvestor]

AIG's accounting is an insult to accountants.  Hard for me to see AIG.  And Mr. Buffett already passed on it (or parts of it) in 2008.  

[CassiusKing1]

I have nothing to add to the topic other than to say @longterminvestor you have the best avatar of all time.  I sill laugh at that clip to this day,lol! 

[Gamecock-YT]

Citigroup

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:

Citigroup

 

I don't think that's how the rules work.  Citi is a disclosed position in the 13-F.  If it had disappeared while it was confidential that would be one thing, but having it show up as a position while "confidential positions are being omitted" suggests that it isn't anything that is on the list.  Citi isn't being omitted from the 13-F.

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, Gamecock-YT said:

Citigroup

 

Stop it. You're getting me excited.

[dealraker]

PayPal?  

[coffeecaninvestor]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

PayPal?  

+1 

 

from a valuation perspective it makes sense. 
 

I was thinking SCHW, but unsure about valuation on that one.

Edited May 5 by coffeecaninvestor

[sleepydragon]

FIS or FI

[mcliu]

10 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

Citigroup

I think CNBC said Jane Fraser was at the Berkshire AGM..

[yesman182]

17 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@yesman182,

 

Where and when? - What do you mean?

If you go to TIKR or any other website that tracks investments, you can usually see a list of the companies largest shareholders. I don't know how those lists are compiled. It isn't clear to me if the company itself needs to file something with the SEC naming the largest holders. Or if the websites are aggregating the filing of the individual shareholders who need to disclose their ownership stake in securities. 

[gfp]

31 minutes ago, yesman182 said:

If you go to TIKR or any other website that tracks investments, you can usually see a list of the companies largest shareholders. I don't know how those lists are compiled. It isn't clear to me if the company itself needs to file something with the SEC naming the largest holders. Or if the websites are aggregating the filing of the individual shareholders who need to disclose their ownership stake in securities. 

 

So those websites are aggregating a bunch of different disclosures like 13-Fs, 13d, 13g.  The companies themselves use those disclosures to name the largest shareholders in their proxy statements.  If a manager is not large enough to be required to file 13-F and isn't over 5% or a reporting insider, they can stay anonymous and under the radar.  

[John Hjorth]

Thank you to @yesman182 for elaborating, and thank you to @gfp for elaborating on the reply side.

 

Personally, I consider this topic to be about the omitted position[s] [It could actually be more than one] in Berskhires latest 13F-HR, filed at SEC February 14^th 2024, containing this message [in blue font] :

 

 

 

[nsx5200]

I thought about DFS as well, but the hidden disclosure (Nov. '23) was before COF announced DFS acquisition intention(Feb. '24).  That in itself is not an issue, but was there wasn't an obvious catalyst back in late '23.  In fact, it seems like their net income (quarter) dropped.  Maybe he thought the drop was only temporary so that's why he bought into it.

 

FI is an interesting possibility.  Anybody know what might be cause of the run up from late '23 to now (~$120 to $150)?

 

 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

I think value act was in FI pretty heavy around that time. 

[Xerxes]

A gentleman on Gabelli TV makes the case that this is potentially “Mitsubishi Financial”

 

note that it trades in the US, so part of SEC requirement for disclosure 

[giulio]

He is the guy from compounding quality. 

He essentially recited this article and a bunch of other staff. Zero original thoughts.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/18/new-clues-confidential-stock-warren-buffett-buying/

I find him and Christohper Tsai highly overvalued at the moment 
 

[nsx5200]

Barron's speculation list:

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/berkshire-hathaway-mystery-stock-bfd8ec86

[gfp]

I guess Chubb - do I win??

[Hektor]

2 minutes ago, gfp said:

I guess Chubb - do I win??

[Sweet]

Is it Chubb?  I’ve not seen anyone predict that, not on COBF or financial media.

[gfp]

6 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Is it Chubb?  I’ve not seen anyone predict that, not on COBF or financial media.

 

There was somebody at Barron's who guessed Chubb and that person was correct.