2022 returns thread

[Gregmal]

Overall was probably one of my finest years as far as actual investing went. Performance was below my annual averages and definitely not 2021 or 2020 type numbers but overall the ebb and flow of this year required a whole lot more focus.
 

Outside of Q2 it seemed there was always something working and also always opportunity to put capital to work. Commodity/Oil/War boom Q1, China pop in early Q2, buyouts on APTS, CNR, BKEP, RFP, and kinda buyouts/bids on VRE and MANU as well as plenty of other names I didn’t own that supported certain key drivers that made investing elsewhere easy. Index shorts I staggered well and then pivoted to the TSLA and AAPL shorts once it kinda seemed like the CPI fear was peaking. 
 

Sitting tight on APTS and PSTH into June and July also worked. Not even sure why I did other than for tax reasons; I almost always chuck stuff once the bulk of the story is done but for whatever reason didn’t and that capital was a huge source of new investment in H2. 
 

Longer term holdings moved around as you’d expect from stocks with those profiles. PCYO got overdone but came back a bit. AIV thrown out despite fundamentals improving. Then corrected. MSGS did what you’d expect. MSGE was really the only head scratcher that I’m still not quite sure I fully grasp the reasons for the severity of going $85 to $40 in 6 months. JOE kinda behaved how I would anticipate given the overall market narratives but I’m confident I backed into that appropriately and now have like 5x the position I did earlier in the year. The Berkshires and Fairfaxes shined as well, this is their environment so that’s expected too.
 

Disney was a bag of shit that I would probably label my only real mistake on the year. I felt the shift at $135 and decided I needed to ignore that so I could be a “long term investor” and ate dirt when it was avoidable. Zillow too I just wasn’t looking at the right stuff and then failed to really take action decisively. Also stubbornly kept buying VIX calls even though it started becoming apparent over the summer they weren’t working. Went like 1/20 with those fuckers and at a certain point forgot rule 1 of trading….you know it’s over when it stops making money. 
 

Biggest gains again really came from the places we are told we shouldn’t go….margin, options, leverage whatever. Being able to 10-20x a single digit position is really a game changer as far as managing risk goes. 

I even flipped my car to Carvana. 
 

So, put another one in the books. 

 

[spartansaver]

10 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Done.  You can answer in the poll now too.  Cheers!

Thank you

 

Happy New Year!

Edited January 1, 2023 by spartansaver

[competitive-advantage]

Thanks for sharing your stories.
 

Lack of focus. I did everything from Magic Formula to Grahams Simple Way and macro investing. Now I’m using all my time on annual reports within known areas.
 

Account 1: -39.17

Account 2: -13.16

 

Biggest loser: Meta

Biggest winners: Alphabet & Innoviva

Edited January 1, 2023 by competitive-advantage

[ValueArb]

In writing my client reports I came across an interesting performance metric I didn't anticipate. One of my clients started in June 1, 2021 and her account is up 39% since then. She chose me over a Schwab broker, so I gave her a comparison to the S&P 500, which is down -10.7% in same period.

 

But she is in her 50s so that's not a fair comparison as I would expect Schwab to put a substantial amount of her portfolio into bond funds and cash (and some international funds). That would have reduced volatility greatly over a pure SP 500 holding and obviously done much better. So I used Vanguard Target Retirement funds as my proxy, 2030 and 2035 funds and they were both down even more than the SP500 during same period, around -13%!

 

I hadn't realized how big a shellacking bond funds had taken, or how little diversification can help during some major market moves.

[Gregmal]

I’ve never understood the institutionally inspired obsession with fretting or fearing volatility. You should only be investing money you don’t need. And if you don’t need it who cares about what’s literally just one of the features of the stock market? I can’t think of anything that probably costs investors more money over the course of a lifetime than trying to avoid volatility. 

[UNF2007]

31.14% according to IBKR. Small concentrated portfolio.  Some of the winners were TPL, which I initially bought in 2020 after reading a horizon kinetics report, and fully exited this year, thanks Murray! AMZN, which I just had luck with entry/exiting prior to the run down. Also DIS, that June to Aug window, again pure luck.  Went to 80% cash by around mid August, decided I needed to sit out for a bit with the Fed moves, also took a new teaching position as surgical faculty with a cross country move, and preparing applications for subspecialty fellowship around that time and just didn't have the bandwidth. Biggest unrealized loss so far has been INTC, which I have held since 2020. Finishing up the book Chip Wars, gives a very good historical perspective on the major players. 

 

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I’ve never understood the institutionally inspired obsession with fretting or fearing volatility. You should only be investing money you don’t need. And if you don’t need it who cares about what’s literally just one of the features of the stock market? I can’t think of anything that probably costs investors more money over the course of a lifetime than trying to avoid volatility. 

 

It's not institutionally inspired, but just human nature.  The institutions do a good job of propagating it.  Human's are always more psychologically traumatized by loss of money, rather than the equivalent amount gained.  Almost everyone will buy more of something when it is on sale, but God only knows why 90%+ of society doesn't feel the same way when their house, stocks, bonds, etc drop in value. 

 

Only about 2 in a 100 people are built where they feel the reverse...they get excited when stocks fall.  I'm actually even more perverse...I actually get more fearful when they start rising!  I'm happy loading up when the world is apparently "collapsing", but start getting more fearful when something goes up 50-100% in short succession!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

19 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

It's not institutionally inspired, but just human nature.  The institutions do a good job of propagating it.  Human's are always more psychologically traumatized by loss of money, rather than the equivalent amount gained.  Almost everyone will buy more of something when it is on sale, but God only knows why 90%+ of society doesn't feel the same way when their house, stocks, bonds, etc drop in value. 

 

Only about 2 in a 100 people are built where they feel the reverse...they get excited when stocks fall.  I'm actually even more perverse...I actually get more fearful when they start rising!  I'm happy loading up when the world is apparently "collapsing", but start getting more fearful when something goes up 50-100% in short succession!  Cheers!

So translating it, basically 95% of people are buying a stock quote when they think they’re making an investment and get all flustered based on irrelevant day to day stuff; the other 5% realize they’re buying a business/asset and realize short term quotes are pretty meaningless. No wonder the rich get richer. Imagine if Bezos had an aneurism every 5-10% fluctuation in Amazon stock since 1998?

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

So translating it, basically 95% of people are buying a stock quote when they think they’re making an investment and get all flustered based on irrelevant day to day stuff; the other 5% realize they’re buying a business/asset and realize short term quotes are pretty meaningless. No wonder the rich get richer. Imagine if Bezos had an aneurism every 5-10% fluctuation in Amazon stock since 1998?

 

I'm sure some of the rich even get annoyed when their assets fall in value...thinking about Elon Musk and his margin calls on TSLA due to his Twitter purchase. 

 

The smart ones like Buffett never get overleveraged and live well below their means.  If you do it like Buffett, even if you are getting only average returns, you will slowly become financially independent and never get into financial trouble.  Few people are patient enough to build it through their life time.  Everyone wants to be rich tomorrow!

 

The irony is that if you just live below your means...you are already in better shape than 60% of people!  No matter how much you are earning.

 

Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

+3%.

 

Carried by Berkshire Hathaway+9,9% in my functional currency [DKK, Berkshire Hathaway +3,3% in USD], and Novo Nordisk [+27,6% for the year] - also both largest positions in the mentioned order.

 

I'm certainly not complaining, while seeing SP500 -15,5% for the year and OMX C25 -13,5%. I was expecting a meager 2022 anyway upon a wild 2021 at 40%.

Edited January 2, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Paarslaars]

2013	8%
2014	25%
2015	-20%
2016	40%
2017	-26%
2018	-17%
2019	20%
2020	-5%
2021	47%
2022	-4%

 

Basically lost my O&G profits on BABA and some crypto gamling (really should stop doing those things).

 

Overall still happy I beat the S&P.

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Paarslaars

[KFS]

+31% USD

 

--- Long FRFHF throughout the year and added opportunistically.  (Cheers, @Viking)

--- Long BRK

—- Smallish positions of Fairfax India and MKL 

--- At various times during the year, short MSTR, AMC, GME, and TSLA (both directly and/or via puts).  

Edited January 2, 2023 by KFS

[backtothebeach]

2 hours ago, KFS said:

+31% USD

 

--- Long FRFHF throughout the year and added opportunistically.  (Cheers, @Viking)

--- Long BRK

—- Smallish positions of Fairfax India and MKL 

--- At various times during the year, short MSTR, AMC, GME, and TSLA (both directly and/or via puts).  

Congrats! Looks so simple in hindsight. Short meme stocks when nobody is talking about shorting them anymore.

[Ulti]

Up 2% for 2022

Gains: Brkb , Rio, Joe ,Nee, ,Apts,Atco, Aiv Ctra ( both small gains )

Loss: Vet,Shittybank , Vwinx ( in wife's restricted to mutual fund account)

Got out with small losses in Meta, Kind... ( still learning about renting vs owning ).

Thanks again to everyone for the education this year ( esp. in RE and Commodities).

[Pelagic]

Up 13.5%

 

Was a lot better in June so the second half of the year was a bit of a disappointment. Bought tech a bit early, Meta and Baba mainly, and could have taken some more profits in oil earlier. 

 

Also think I devoted too much mental energy to positions I never put a meaningful percent in. Twitter mainly, but some small speculative bets on RIG and BTU too. All made money but didn't ever put in enough to move the needle. 

 

 

[dealraker]

I may be the only investor here who has far more belief in the businesses I have shares with than my picking of what and when to buy then sell.  But as Parsad says above it does work.

 

I do enjoy here the atmosphere of not going psycho over downturns and parabolic upsides.   

Edited January 2, 2023 by dealraker

[cwericb]

While I have been investing for a fair number of years I am still a rank amateur in this game. In 2021 I was pretty satisfied with being up 34% and was rather disappointed with my results for this year at only 14%. But looking at other board member’s numbers, I don’t feel so bad. Anyway I’m satisfied. On to 2023...

(Correction: 15.0% - not including dividends which would have added another 1-2%)

 

Much of the credit for the increase goes to Fairfax (FFH), Altius (ALS), and Suncor (SU).
Royal Bank (RY) and SNC Lavalin (SNC) were disappointments, but I am comfortable continuing holding both.

 

One more thing, I believe we have to factor in inflation. With inflation (in my area) running in the 8% range. So I would think that I have to be up at least 8% just to break even.

Edited January 4, 2023 by cwericb
Correction

[Xerxes]

Finally back home and can post my 2022 results.

I am happy to report that my 2022 totally beat Cathie Wood star investor in the 2022 year.

 

Assuming i have done the math right, it comes to -11% down for the combined TFSA/RRSP/LIRA.

It is all in Canadian dollar terms.

 

Account split:

     RRSP/LIRA where I hold the crown jewels (including the cut-in-half Alphabet and Amazon) are down a combined -3.2% for the year.

 

     TFSA had a monster -31.9% drop. Within that account I had IAC, Grab, Spotify, Angi, Onex Etc. I should add that in the prior year (2020-21), I had bought Microstrategy at about $377 and sold over $1,000. And had also multibagger realized gains on Blackberry and Lightspeed. So in 2022, I gave back what I unlawfully sold to the greater fools than myself, and became a fool myelf.

 

Naturally, the RRSP/LIRA is more than 3.5 times larger than TFSA, so stupidity is hedged. 

 

Biggest +ve Contributor in TFSA/RRSP/LIRA (not counting dividends):

 

Exxon                     80% up

Fairfax Financial    28% up

Bombardier            27%

Starbucks               27% up (from May when I started position)

RTX                         17% up

Stelco                     13% up

Couche-Tard          11% up

Berkshire                3% up

 

If I am not mistaken in my math the above constitued in total dollar terms ~46% of the combined portfolio, which means there was the balance ~54% in dollar terms that went down in 2022. Either a little bit or a lot. 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Xerxes

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Finally back home and can post my 2022 results.

I am happy to report that my 2022 totally beat Cathie Wood star investor in the 2022 year.

 

Assuming i have done the math right, it comes to -11% down for the combined TFSA/RRSP/LIRA.

It is all in Canadian dollar terms.

 

Account split:

     RRSP/LIRA where I hold the crown jewels (including the cut-in-half Alphabet and Amazon) are down a combined -3.2% for the year.

 

     TFSA had a monster -31.9% drop. Within that account I had IAC, Grab, Spotify, Angi, Onex Etc. I should add that in the prior year (2020-21), I had bought Microstrategy at about $377 and sold over $1,000. And had also multibagger realized gains on Blackberry and Lightspeed. So in 2022, I gave back what I unlawfully sold to the greater fools than myself, and became a fool myelf.

 

Naturally, the RRSP/LIRA is more than 3.5 times larger than TFSA, so stupidity is hedged. 

 

Biggest +ve Contributor in TFSA/RRSP/LIRA (not counting dividends):

 

Exxon                     80% up

Fairfax Financial    28% up

Bombardier            27%

Starbucks               27% up (from May when I started position)

RTX                         17% up

Stelco                     13% up

Couche-Tard          11% up

Berkshire                3% up

 

If I am not mistaken in my math the above constitued in total dollar terms ~46% of the combined portfolio, which means there was the balance ~54% in dollar terms that went down in 2022. Either a little bit or a lot. 

 

 

 

Holy cow, I forgot Microstrategy was over $1,000. It's down more than 85% since then, that was awesome timing!

[MattR]

My best year so far. +144.7%. Gains were mostly through BTU , YPF, UAN and BTI calls and through the short side being short Carvana, Tesla, and pretty much all the ark names. Hope to not have a 30% loss next year, but probabilities are high that it will happen. 

[writser]

On 1/1/2023 at 7:51 AM, aws said:

 

Luckily I had a 1000 share position (worth all of about $40) in the common right before the bankruptcy from a tracker position that I never closed. It was enough to put a few warrants in my account, so I saw immediately when they started trading. Very lucky indeed. Although it was a bit of a hassle to find a broker who would actually let me put an above market bid out there for the warrants. I felt bad taking them at pennies, but it took four phone calls before I even found a broker who would let me buy at the ask price.

 

Very well done!

 

I'm up ~7.5% in EUR, so around break-even in USD. Not the best year, as always I made some mistakes here and there. Nevertheless I am reasonably content to see my deep value / special situations grab bag holding up in a challenging year.

 

As in 2020, special situations tend not to be completely market neutral in case the shit really hits the fan. This year, ADES was an example of something that might have worked out a year earlier. Management should have simply liquidated as there was absolutely no appetite for a cash box pursuing a speculative SPAC-like deal in 2022. I liked the setup but that was ugly.

 

RBCN was an example of something that worked out very well - if you paid some attention you could make some very decent trades around the Janel tender offer.

 

As in other years there's still quite a bit of fat left on the bones in terms of CVR's, liquidations and delisted instruments for which I simply use brokerage marks. That performance will show up when these instruments pay out (or don't). Noteworthy are a large position in the PDLI liquidation, a position in UDF IV that is potentially very undervalued, a large position in Genkyotex CVR's and a position in the BMY CVR lawsuit. Last year I also added quite a bit of Akouos CVR's to my grab bag last year.

 

Also, a decent (and growing) chunk of my portfolio is in expert market stocks now. Some of these are ridiculously cheap and I am very happy to own them.

Edited January 3, 2023 by writser

[thepupil]

2022: +4.5%

 

 

Historical: 

 

All rough approximations, putting the old stuff from contributions to similar threads like this, it looks something like this

 

My consolidated IBKR accounts have returned: +248% from May 24th 2013 to December 30th 2022. SPY is about 178%. REITS +62%....Account = 13.9% / yr. SPY = 11.2% / yr 

 

My consolidated Fidelity accounts have returned +106% from August 12th 2016 to December 30th 2022. SPY is about 96%. REITS +23%. SPY: 11.2% /yr, Account = a bit better than that. 

 

My (slight) outperformance has come with much greater volatility and tax drag. 

 

 

2022: +4.5%

2021: +55%

2020:  +2%

2019: +20%

2018: -2%

2017:  +15%

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/thepupil11/status/1610293154871406593?s=20&t=ljxIAVKsBs5hps4Nrk7LAg

Edited January 3, 2023 by thepupil

[rkbabang]

According to Fidelity performance tab for all of my accounts as of 12/31/22:

 

1 year: -19.81  (vs SP500 -18.11)

3 year: +15.91 (vs SP500 +7.66)

5 year: +12.94 (vs SP500 +9.42)

 

My positions which were all down this year. BAM, BN, BNRE, JOE, APPL, AMZN, MSGE, AIV, AIV calls, NVDA, OSTK, SE, CLPR, VET, SHOP, TRUP, TRRSF

 

Luckily I also bought and held BRKB, FRFHF, ATHOF, EPSN, ALNY, WMB, RIVN $30 puts

 

And I sold for gains:  UI, WFCF, EPD, OBE, APTS, APTS calls, VRE calls, VET calls

 

I broke even on TSLA puts which I sold and lost money on APPL puts which I sold.

 

 

EDIT:  Also down a large amount in Crypto I've held BTC and ETH all year, bought some more, but haven't sold any this year.  I haven't calculated the % loss on that.

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by rkbabang

[hasilp89]

Personal - down 1.4%

Managed account - down 4.3%.

 

Went mostly to cash aside from GTXAP and WHC at the end of Q3 as I'll be investing through 1 account going forward. 

 

 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, writser said:

 

Very well done!

 

I'm up ~7.5% in EUR, so around break-even in USD. Not the best year, as always I made some mistakes here and there. Nevertheless I am reasonably content to see my deep value / special situations grab bag holding up in a challenging year.

 

As in 2020, special situations tend not to be completely market neutral in case the shit really hits the fan. This year, ADES was an example of something that might have worked out a year earlier. Management should have simply liquidated as there was absolutely no appetite for a cash box pursuing a speculative SPAC-like deal in 2022. I liked the setup but that was ugly.

 

RBCN was an example of something that worked out very well - if you paid some attention you could make some very decent trades around the Janel tender offer.

 

As in other years there's still quite a bit of fat left on the bones in terms of CVR's, liquidations and delisted instruments for which I simply use brokerage marks. That performance will show up when these instruments pay out (or don't). Noteworthy are a large position in the PDLI liquidation, a position in UDF IV that is potentially very undervalued, a large position in Genkyotex CVR's and a position in the BMY CVR lawsuit. Last year I also added quite a bit of Akouos CVR's to my grab bag last year.

 

Also, a decent (and growing) chunk of my portfolio is in expert market stocks now. Some of these are ridiculously cheap and I am very happy to own them.

Who do you trade expert stocks through?  Thank you.