lnofeisone Posted January 26 Posted January 26 1 hour ago, longlake95 said: I don’t know what’s hated worse right now…. Chemicals or food stocks… At least with chemicals, you know what you are getting. Food right now is in the middle of all sorts of transitions and hard to figure out what will win. Food to me is now on par with retailers. Too hard pile.
Gregmal Posted January 26 Author Posted January 26 I also think there’s clear secular decline for branded grocery like Kraft/Heinz. These things had their heyday when white label wasn’t really an option or wasn’t nearly as prevalent as it is today. The pricing they demand in many cases is just so excessive compared to store brand that unless someone really just wants to waste money, it’s a dumb purchase. Even during the height of covid inflation, store brand ketchup was like $2 and Heinz was $4 for a smaller bottle…
brobro777 Posted January 26 Posted January 26 41 minutes ago, Gregmal said: I also think there’s clear secular decline for branded grocery like Kraft/Heinz. These things had their heyday when white label wasn’t really an option or wasn’t nearly as prevalent as it is today. The pricing they demand in many cases is just so excessive compared to store brand that unless someone really just wants to waste money, it’s a dumb purchase. Even during the height of covid inflation, store brand ketchup was like $2 and Heinz was $4 for a smaller bottle… Maybe for Ketchup, but the Kraft BBQ sauce I get is like $2, not much different from Kroger's brand BBQ at Ralphs https://www.amazon.com/Kraft-Original-Barbecue-Sauce-18/dp/B00VC5BIC6/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.5yMQFQC_0oHQ17aZRLVGaTZw3SJrZXIJkkvA5V-28-e14430PI4XeCdrAnDzjp5lRVLGgoSwUB9mG8rjmLu_mEhLts5sGyY9GoTBC-zrrZS_FPfUyswjb0090g-Mg3QQx1gR5deFz9Z59obXFvkFSGcjwUYVtGekhKwimDMyWOv1hWbJj-e7vYhesdxqsr3kso44xMehi3wwtVkLlNhxjrTkpNvfx07M0R7Z040zGUvPofj19rvCVoVc1e5-nzLHLfbbSsxrk-zsyevw55IkMBn5DsCw_Xnh8-LED6f52Yk.K_4DvTrmFOh5tKJGYBcjZT1wvIuNN1s1WCsEKLkKAoc&dib_tag=se&keywords=kraft%2Bbarbecue%2Bsauce%2Boriginal&qid=1769388715&rdc=1&sr=8-1&th=1 By the way guys, don't buy gift cards from Von's on 3rd Street - the scammers already got all the Amazon codes and it'll take you months, months to get your refund back from Albertson's!
formthirteen Posted January 26 Posted January 26 7 hours ago, Gregmal said: I also think there’s clear secular decline for branded grocery like Kraft/Heinz. These things had their heyday when white label wasn’t really an option or wasn’t nearly as prevalent as it is today. The pricing they demand in many cases is just so excessive compared to store brand that unless someone really just wants to waste money, it’s a dumb purchase. Even during the height of covid inflation, store brand ketchup was like $2 and Heinz was $4 for a smaller bottle… I tried to be contrarian by buying the following stocks late last year, but I bailed out quickly: General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Could be a contrarian idea going forward because I don't see any catalysts (no revenue growth, etc.). I also thought about GLP-1 contrarian stock picks last year, but I didn't find any conviction in my ideas. Online classifieds must be contrarian the way their stocks have traded: YELP business has improved (operating margins). Market doesn't care. Payment processors (FOUR, PYPL, GPN, FISV) are also interesting. Market doesn't care about PYPL's EPS/FCF growth.
Milu Posted January 26 Posted January 26 (edited) The ultimate contrarian bet right now would be short gold or silver. Edited January 26 by Milu
Gregmal Posted January 26 Author Posted January 26 4 hours ago, formthirteen said: I tried to be contrarian by buying the following stocks late last year, but I bailed out quickly: General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Yea cereal especially its crazy. A box of General Mills or Post/Kellog cereal, standard size, regular price is now $4-5. Sure, they often have sales, but you compare that to the generic, say Cheerios/Fruity Pebbles/etc store brand, where you get 3-4x as much for the same $5. You dont eat the box, and outside of that there is absolutely zero difference to attribute the value. If the consumer is getting pinched, who in their right mind is buying these?
73 Reds Posted January 26 Posted January 26 16 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Yea cereal especially its crazy. A box of General Mills or Post/Kellog cereal, standard size, regular price is now $4-5. Sure, they often have sales, but you compare that to the generic, say Cheerios/Fruity Pebbles/etc store brand, where you get 3-4x as much for the same $5. You dont eat the box, and outside of that there is absolutely zero difference to attribute the value. If the consumer is getting pinched, who in their right mind is buying these? My favorite contrarian idea now is cash. Holding much more than usual with the hope of investing it in the not-too-distant future into some very low hanging fruit.
gfp Posted January 26 Posted January 26 Just now, 73 Reds said: My favorite contrarian idea now is cash. Holding much more than usual with the hope of investing it in the not-too-distant future into some very low hanging fruit. BOR-ing!
73 Reds Posted January 26 Posted January 26 (edited) Just now, gfp said: BOR-ing! LOL, love boring, rocking chairs and lemonade. Edited January 26 by 73 Reds spelling
SharperDingaan Posted January 26 Posted January 26 BTC. The risk-on assets are gold and silver .... yet BTC can't even hold 90K in a strong wind? Opportunity SD
tnathan Posted January 26 Posted January 26 Isn't the issue with chemicals that the market has fundamentally changed with China increasing the supply? Seems possible that is secular and won't revert
Longnose Posted January 26 Posted January 26 On 1/24/2026 at 11:44 AM, brobro777 said: ADBE gonna rip back up to $600 in 2026 to learn these AI funboys a lesson about profit margins and cash flow! Yea baby Lets go!! +1
Cod Liver Oil Posted January 26 Posted January 26 (edited) I love contrarian ideas when they invert all your assumptions and make you question your gender. But I have not found battleground stocks particularly fruitful. @dealraker suggested that stocks which go curiously silent (I think he meant Dollar Stores) are sometimes the most interesting. People frozen in silence may be a better signal. It reminds me of the "dog which did not bark" in Sherlock Holmes or stocks which "have the EKG of a stone" which Lynch mentions or stocks which are just DOA. Edited January 26 by Cod Liver Oil
Spekulatius Posted January 26 Posted January 26 (edited) 2 hours ago, tnathan said: Isn't the issue with chemicals that the market has fundamentally changed with China increasing the supply? Seems possible that is secular and won't revert Yes, China has been deflationary to chemicals in whole world across the board. Even US based business with cheaper input costs and protected by tariffs are suffering. I don’t think a bit after economic growth will fix that. Edited January 26 by Spekulatius
dealraker Posted January 26 Posted January 26 2 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said: I love contrarian ideas when they invert all your assumptions and make you question your gender. But I have not found battleground stocks particularly fruitful. @dealraker suggested that stocks which go curiously silent (I think he meant Dollar Stores) are sometimes the most interesting. People frozen in silence may be a better signal. It reminds me of the "dog which did not bark" in Sherlock Holmes or stocks which "have the EKG of a stone" which Lynch mentions or stocks which are just DOA. It seems a logical thought here. My experience with the dollar stores, particularly DG, is one where I'm so appalled by what I saw at the local stores a couple of years ago that I just could not fathom too much commitment. They both had A/C out in the middle of the summer, spoiled food, crap all over the back side of the isles not in place, and so under-staffed it made theft almost mandated. But such a history of making money. I danced around with cowardice just enough to make a little bit of money. But a lot of money could have been made with more thought and knowledge than I had. I was disappointed in the silence of this forum on the stores, but it was everywhere. It was an idea that I need help adjusting to and I often do make decisions on interactions with other investors. This is something many find not helpful as crowd thought is often bad logic, but for me discussion isn't a bad thing for something I'm learning about.
UK Posted January 26 Posted January 26 6 hours ago, Gregmal said: Yea cereal especially its crazy. A box of General Mills or Post/Kellog cereal, standard size, regular price is now $4-5. Sure, they often have sales, but you compare that to the generic, say Cheerios/Fruity Pebbles/etc store brand, where you get 3-4x as much for the same $5. You dont eat the box, and outside of that there is absolutely zero difference to attribute the value. If the consumer is getting pinched, who in their right mind is buying these? +1. I used to buy cereals only from Kellogs or Nestle, but just recently did a test with some Aldi and Lidl alternatives and could not taste the difference at more than half the price. Still buying original Coke though:)
Spooky Posted January 26 Posted January 26 On 1/24/2026 at 9:11 PM, Fly said: This would have done well if you could have held til now. And for a contrarian idea I'd say we're getting close to shorting PMs. Not yet, but sometime back half of this year. Software sector looks pretty bombed out currently. AI fears are overblown My man. I feel the same way. Gold and silver are behaving like meme stocks! Some software companies are going to prosper, just have to find the right ones.
Spooky Posted January 26 Posted January 26 On 1/24/2026 at 1:44 PM, brobro777 said: ADBE gonna rip back up to $600 in 2026 to learn these AI funboys a lesson about profit margins and cash flow! Yea baby Lets go!! +1. I haven't dug too deep on Adobe but basically everyone still uses it all the time. My partner is an architect / interior designer and she says there is no alternative to photoshop for now.
Longnose Posted January 26 Posted January 26 The contrarian play here is that Adobe isn't just making "assets" anymore, they’re owning the entire enterprise Content Supply Chain. Sure, some startup can gen a cool cat video, but big brands need 10,000 versions of an ad that won't get them sued. That’s where Firefly wins; it’s "commercially safe" and baked right into the tools everyone already uses. The market is freaking out over nothing because AI is actually a massive tailwind. Brands now need 10x more content than before, and Adobe is the only player fully equipped to manage, edit, and legal clear that mountain of data at scale. You’ve got massive switching costs. good luck moving a global team off those proprietary file formats. Additionally, the data shows it’s working: AI users are sticking around longer (churn is down 10%). We're looking at a classic "fear of the new" mispricing. Adobe isn't being replaced; it's becoming the high-margin, agentic backbone of the whole creative economy.
Spooky Posted January 26 Posted January 26 11 hours ago, Milu said: The ultimate contrarian bet right now would be short gold or silver. +1. Problem is this can keep going for longer than you would expect.
Spooky Posted January 26 Posted January 26 5 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said: suggested that stocks which go curiously silent (I think he meant Dollar Stores) are sometimes the most interesting. Maybe there is a case for Berkshire. It seems much to quiet given the leadership change.... flying under the radar?
Sweet Posted January 26 Posted January 26 13 hours ago, Milu said: The ultimate contrarian bet right now would be short gold or silver. 1 hour ago, Spooky said: +1. Problem is this can keep going for longer than you would expect. You wouldn’t short either. You’d short the junior miners. I just had a look at GDXJ, the puts aren’t nearly as expensive as I thought.
formthirteen Posted January 31 Posted January 31 Against the Grain - Staying grounded in fundamentals - CIO Perspectives https://gqg.com/insights/against-the-grain/ Quote By focusing on sound fundamentals we aim to guard against long-term downside risks and avoid speculative bubbles In the current environment, we view defensive sectors such as utilities, staples, and insurance as offering attractive total return potential due to their valuations, stable growth, and capital return Being early in identifying bubbles reflects our disciplined approach to seeking durable, quality businesses, in our view Quote GQG’s best performance historically has generally come in bear markets and our worst performance has come in frothy markets. The good news for long-term investors is that over full market cycles, the math of having downside risk management with less participation on the upside has led to meaningful outperformance on the whole. I've been crying myself to sleep with my sleep-well portfolio because I'm overweight the insurance sector and low-beta stocks. Maybe that will change... I wouldn't bet 2026 is the year.
KPO Posted January 31 Posted January 31 On 6/13/2022 at 5:49 PM, Gregmal said: Come on, let’s hear em. Most ridiculous things people are doing and thinking about doing. Always a fun exercise. A year ago I joked about $200 oil. Seems now more than an outside shot. Today, I’m not buying bonds but am getting tempted to hit up some dirty dirty junk. Maybe not some carvana but how about some of the energy companies? Transocean has some real wild ones currently hoisting bong yields. Berkshire Energy as well has duration. Where’s the biggest consensus opportunities? Meaning, where are there 10 kids all on the same side of the seesaw? HOG checks the contrarian box given obvious demographic headwinds, and below $20 it’s historically cheap.
Malmqky Posted January 31 Posted January 31 On 1/26/2026 at 3:49 AM, Milu said: The ultimate contrarian bet right now would be short gold or silver. Good timing!
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