Gregmal Posted June 13, 2022 Posted June 13, 2022 Come on, let’s hear em. Most ridiculous things people are doing and thinking about doing. Always a fun exercise. A year ago I joked about $200 oil. Seems now more than an outside shot. Today, I’m not buying bonds but am getting tempted to hit up some dirty dirty junk. Maybe not some carvana but how about some of the energy companies? Transocean has some real wild ones currently hoisting bong yields. Berkshire Energy as well has duration. Where’s the biggest consensus opportunities? Meaning, where are there 10 kids all on the same side of the seesaw?
thepupil Posted June 13, 2022 Posted June 13, 2022 I am thinking of buying a basket of KRC / VNO / PGRE / SLG
Parsad Posted June 13, 2022 Posted June 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Come on, let’s hear em. Most ridiculous things people are doing and thinking about doing. Always a fun exercise. A year ago I joked about $200 oil. Seems now more than an outside shot. Today, I’m not buying bonds but am getting tempted to hit up some dirty dirty junk. Maybe not some carvana but how about some of the energy companies? Transocean has some real wild ones currently hoisting bong yields. Berkshire Energy as well has duration. Where’s the biggest consensus opportunities? Meaning, where are there 10 kids all on the same side of the seesaw? We're not going to see $200 oil in the next 12 months. At $150, the pain is going to start to really hit consumers and industry. 10 kids on the same side of the seesaw...maybe market sellers, crypto sellers, strength of USD, commodity investors. Not that I'm for the current batch of crypto, but blockchain infrastructure companies are getting thrown out with the coins...so there may be some opportunity there. Really most of the ridiculous stuff was happening late last year when I had moved to 50% cash...crypto, markets, real estate, spacs, etc. It's Christmas again and I'm doing a ton of shopping! Cheers!
Gregmal Posted June 13, 2022 Author Posted June 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, thepupil said: I am thinking of buying a basket of KRC / VNO / PGRE / SLG Might be early but I doubt we here one more contrarian than that.
crs223 Posted June 13, 2022 Posted June 13, 2022 What my coworkers say: buy the dip, ticker XXX is 30% off, never seen a bear market last more than 6 months What I wish they were saying: market is rigged, little guy can’t win
Spekulatius Posted June 13, 2022 Posted June 13, 2022 The commodity supercycle is going to get cancelled by the next recession. Works every time.
KPO Posted June 13, 2022 Posted June 13, 2022 Not exactly contrarian, but there are some interesting merger arb opportunities like TEN, and of course ATVI, with 30-35% annualized profit potential. Even Y is 2% off the deal price and should close in 4 months or so. Not exciting, but should perform ok on a relative basis with less risk of principal. I also have to wonder if BA @ $115 and WBD sub-$14 will look like bargains in retrospect when we look back on them 4-5 years from now.
Spekulatius Posted June 14, 2022 Posted June 14, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, KPO said: Not exactly contrarian, but there are some interesting merger arb opportunities like TEN, and of course ATVI, with 30-35% annualized profit potential. Even Y is 2% off the deal price and should close in 4 months or so. Not exciting, but should perform ok on a relative basis with less risk of principal. I also have to wonder if BA @ $115 and WBD sub-$14 will look like bargains in retrospect when we look back on them 4-5 years from now. I think Airbus (AIR.PA) is much better risk adjusted bet than BA. Better blance sheet, much better management and better products. WBD is too tough of a call to me with the knife fight in streaming. I agree on the merger arb opportunities. Edited June 14, 2022 by Spekulatius
Parsad Posted June 14, 2022 Posted June 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The commodity supercycle is going to get cancelled by the next recession. Works every time. Yup, totally agree! Cheers!
scorpioncapital Posted June 14, 2022 Posted June 14, 2022 6 hours ago, Parsad said: Yup, totally agree! Cheers! seems like everything is getting cancelled. cancel culture has come to stocks!
MattR Posted June 14, 2022 Posted June 14, 2022 I am getting bullish precious metals. I believe that the market prices in a lot of rate hikes - but I think the fed won't do them and inflation is here to stay. They can't break the system, and a lot would break at 5% fed fund rate.
lnofeisone Posted June 14, 2022 Posted June 14, 2022 Metaverse will be a niche thing and not as big as FB thinks. While we are in digital world, 80% of "AI-centric" companies are trash (especially in the insurance/finance industry) and will be outcompeted by the incumbents.
mcliu Posted June 14, 2022 Posted June 14, 2022 Short Apple. COVID stimulus over. Innovation cycle slowing. Phone adoption peaking. Market still pricing in rapid growth.
backtothebeach Posted July 24, 2022 Posted July 24, 2022 Argentinian ADRs https://topforeignstocks.com/foreign-adrs-list/the-full-list-of-argentina-adrs/ I have no special insight into any of these names, but most of them are down 75-95% from late 2017 when Argentina issued 100 year bonds. I think the banks by themselves are probably fine, but there is no telling what the government will do. Lottery tickets. But you asked for contrarian ideas, so ...
n.r98 Posted July 24, 2022 Posted July 24, 2022 (edited) Herbalife? Stock got killed on declining volumes v 2021 and guiding to a full year decline in volumes and revenue. But guiding adj EPS of 3.50-4? Their adjustments are not egregious so even taking low end of guidance is 6.5x P/E or with 700m of guided EBITDA, and 4.5b of EV, 6.5x EBITDA - both measures at low end of historical range. Share cannibal, FCF generative and good level of insider buying last few months - seems like what matters is whether volume declines will stabilize and eventually return to growth - insiders seem to agree that headwinds are temporal. Edited July 24, 2022 by n.r98
backtothebeach Posted September 5, 2022 Posted September 5, 2022 BASF Highly dependent on ever more expensive natural gas. Russia cutting off Nord Stream. All baked in? Didn't Buffett buy some?
backtothebeach Posted January 24 Posted January 24 On 7/24/2022 at 8:20 AM, backtothebeach said: Argentinian ADRs https://topforeignstocks.com/foreign-adrs-list/the-full-list-of-argentina-adrs/ I have no special insight into any of these names, but most of them are down 75-95% from late 2017 when Argentina issued 100 year bonds. I think the banks by themselves are probably fine, but there is no telling what the government will do. Lottery tickets. But you asked for contrarian ideas, so ... On 9/5/2022 at 12:42 PM, backtothebeach said: BASF Highly dependent on ever more expensive natural gas. Russia cutting off Nord Stream. All baked in? Didn't Buffett buy some? Just remembered this fun thread, because I had a contrarian idea. First of all going back, Argentinian ADRs was a great idea (which of course I did not follow with money), they are all up bigly, many of them have 5 - 10xed. BASF however has only returned ~5% p.a., mostly the dividend.
backtothebeach Posted January 24 Posted January 24 Let's hear it with your most ridiculous contrarian idea. Stuff that is bombed out, left for dead, etc. My idea: KHC. What does this Greg guy know about business and investing anyway.
SharperDingaan Posted January 24 Posted January 24 (edited) Trump assassination after he loses the senate. Underweight the US to buy back on the day of the announcement. Every mafia boss knows its a time limited engagement, and that the end comes suddenly. Just saying ... SD Edited January 25 by SharperDingaan
brobro777 Posted January 24 Posted January 24 ADBE gonna rip back up to $600 in 2026 to learn these AI funboys a lesson about profit margins and cash flow! Yea baby Lets go!!
Fly Posted January 25 Posted January 25 (edited) On 6/14/2022 at 5:36 AM, MattR said: I am getting bullish precious metals. I believe that the market prices in a lot of rate hikes - but I think the fed won't do them and inflation is here to stay. They can't break the system, and a lot would break at 5% fed fund rate. This would have done well if you could have held til now. And for a contrarian idea I'd say we're getting close to shorting PMs. Not yet, but sometime back half of this year. Software sector looks pretty bombed out currently. AI fears are overblown Edited January 25 by Fly
FCharlie Posted January 25 Posted January 25 11 hours ago, backtothebeach said: Let's hear it with your most ridiculous contrarian idea. Stuff that is bombed out, left for dead, etc. My idea: KHC. What does this Greg guy know about business and investing anyway. I love this. Everyone is terrified of the lack of growth and the overhang of Berkshire selling... Reminds me of Wells Fargo during summer 2020 when it was in the $20s and no one would touch it for the exact same reasons. With KHC yielding nearly 7% investors could achieve a double-digit total return if the stock just rose 6 cents per month going forward.... But who cares because Greg's got a 325 million share iceberg sitting there on the offer, right?
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