Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

We live in interesting times.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

Well said SD, though it would be even more interesting if the gas station had no nukes, taking out that extreme left-tail events, that might get realize in unexpected ways. Than it would be just be economics without the Mad Max post-script.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

5 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

Well said SD, though it would be even more interesting if the gas station had no nukes, taking out that extreme left-tail events, that might get realize in unexpected ways. Than it would be just be economics without the Mad Max post-script.

 

 

Without nukes, we would have a parade of Bradley's and Abrahams tanks on the Red Square by now. It's just a 10h drive from Latvia or Estonia to Moscow and there wouldn't be much to stop them, since they are busy beating up their neighbor in the south.

[Spekulatius]

I also wonder if we could end this war in one hour if we gave the Ukraine a few dozen of tactical and ballistic nukes.

 

Edit: I am surprised Bill Ackman hasn't floated this idea

Edited March 31, 2022 by Spekulatius

[boilermaker75]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Holy crap. I feel sorry for these guys. There were rumors that some conscripts got Nagant bolt action rifles (WW2 standard edition). That may be almost true (the fellow in this clip shows a rather worn AK47).

 

I also see news that Putin conscripted 135k new soldiers  - more cannon fodder.

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Without nukes, we would have a parade of Bradley's and Abrahams tanks on the Red Square by now. It's just a 10h drive from Latvia or Estonia to Moscow and there wouldn't be much to stop them, since they are busy beating up their neighbor in the south.

 

Slight quibble with the term beating up. They, Russia military, are definitely issuing some beatings but let's not ignore all the Russia soldiers who are coming out dead or maimed.  Ukraine continues to fight back.

 

Agree though that sanctions and oil could ultimately resolve this or allow it to continue. I don't quite follow SD and whole I hope he's right I don't see Russia in such a bad financial spot.  They have $600b in gold alledged and can shift business to China India Brazil and more.  Meanwhile Europe IS continuing to buy their product.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Without nukes, we would have a parade of Bradley's and Abrahams tanks on the Red Square by now. It's just a 10h drive from Latvia or Estonia to Moscow and there wouldn't be much to stop them, since they are busy beating up their neighbor in the south.

 

Maybe nothing to stop them logistically on paper taking off from the Baltic states, but the same God of War that weighed in with a punishing judgement on the Ukrainian-Russian war and sided with Kiev can quickly change its mind. That balancing act that keeps everything together when one sides goes too far beyound their critical mass.

 

General Mud/Winter sided against the force of mon empereur in 1812, sided against the Wehrmacht in 1941, and finally donned an Ukrainian uniform in 2022 sided against the Kremlin itself, but may quickly change its mind.

 

Russian Winter - Wikipedia 

 

The Ottomans faced theirs "balancing act" in the siege of Malta and Vienna at the height of their power as they overstrech themselves. No one knew it at the time. A third siege of Vienna few decades later would have probably revealed that the emperor has no clothes. Kremlin just revealed that the emperor has no clothes. It is better for NATO not too overstrech and "mark" the limits of its power. The illusion of power is stronger than the need to show it.

 

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

Any military conflict that starts without clear purpose is doomed to fail.

 

"The political object is the goal, war is the means of reaching it, and means can never be considered in isolation from their purpose."

Carl Von Clausewitz.

[SharperDingaan]

The king may order, but it takes many fingers to push the button. Back in the day, press at the time; revealed Trump had ordered a nuclear strike on Qom; that saner heads declined to execute. Russia has saner heads too.

 

Money is the oxygen a regime needs to survive; a plastic bag over its head, and it soon suffocates.

Sanctions, currency implosion, etc. are just different bags. One/all works ... and suddenly there is a new king.

 

SD   

[Blugolds11]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

 

The illusion of power is stronger than the need to show it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Power perceived is power achieved".....the opposite is also true..

 

 

[Spekulatius]

It’s 3/31 so I have to say it. Great quarter  Z-guys:

 

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

There are reports that Ukraine has attacked Belgorod, a Russian city.  The second time this happened actually.  Last time it was a weapons cache and this time oil storage attacked.  Good.  Why should Russia be safe when Ukrainian civilians are being murdered. 

[Blugolds11]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

There are reports that Ukraine has attacked Belgorod, a Russian city.  The second time this happened actually.  Last time it was a weapons cache and this time oil storage attacked.  Good.  Why should Russia be safe when Ukrainian civilians are being murdered. 

 

Was wondering if they would start taking the fight to the enemy. Tough situation though...this isnt really all of Russia as an enemy, its pretty much one guy calling the shots, Putin...remain defensive and Putin is clearly the bad guy...they are just  protecting themselves...go too much on the offensive and it makes it easier for Putin to act like he was right all along and maybe has an easier time rallying everyone against the enemy...TBH the majority of Russians are also victims of Putin, not to the degree that Ukraine is obviously...but still victims. 

 

Imagine some Ukrainian guy loads a truck full of fertilizer/diesel and somehow makes it to Moscow and lets it loose...would they be justified? Maybe there are no civilian casualties, maybe there are. How would that change global perception? Perception of Ukrainian supporters in Russia? Does that actually harm Ukraine more by aiding Putins propaganda?

 

Generally I like the idea of strategically hitting them at home, makes it a little more real for Putin maybe. Too bad they didnt have a way to get at the Eagles Nest...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin's_Palace

 

 

 

[lnofeisone]

16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Holy crap. I feel sorry for these guys. There were rumors that some conscripts got Nagant bolt action rifles (WW2 standard edition). That may be almost true (the fellow in this clip shows a rather worn AK47).

 

I also see news that Putin conscripted 135k new soldiers  - more cannon fodder.

the whole video is inconsistent but these are not likely Russian conscripts. They sound more like pro-ukrainian troops from Donbass. They are complaining about being on the Russian territory. Few inconsistencies:

 

1) Accents of several speakers match up closer to ukrainian (ukranians roll certain letters)

2) The content of what they are saying around 0:58 which is not transcribed, it sounds like "return us to Donbass"

3) The video is confusing. At first they say "we are soldiers" but then they say "we are ordinary civilians, coal miners, factory workers, and students."

4) Around minute 1:06, they are saying that they are facing GRADs, artillery, mortar shells. Those are russian weapons so doesn't match up that russian conscripts would be fighting their own.

5) 119th brigade of russian troops involved in ukranian theater is the Iskander missile brigade. People in the video don't look the part. 

 

Most videos of the conflict show relatively well armed Russian infantry (take a look at the video of them doing house to house search, etc.). 

 

I've seen this video in few different segments now. Really shows that Ukraine is controlling the narrative and winning the info war. 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

There are reports that Ukraine has attacked Belgorod, a Russian city.  The second time this happened actually.  Last time it was a weapons cache and this time oil storage attacked.  Good.  Why should Russia be safe when Ukrainian civilians are being murdered. 

Happy April 1st fools day, Vladimir!

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

the whole video is inconsistent but these are not likely Russian conscripts. They sound more like pro-ukrainian troops from Donbass. They are complaining about being on the Russian territory. Few inconsistencies:

 

1) Accents of several speakers match up closer to ukrainian (ukranians roll certain letters)

2) The content of what they are saying around 0:58 which is not transcribed, it sounds like "return us to Donbass"

3) The video is confusing. At first they say "we are soldiers" but then they say "we are ordinary civilians, coal miners, factory workers, and students."

4) Around minute 1:06, they are saying that they are facing GRADs, artillery, mortar shells. Those are russian weapons so doesn't match up that russian conscripts would be fighting their own.

5) 119th brigade of russian troops involved in ukranian theater is the Iskander missile brigade. People in the video don't look the part. 

 

Most videos of the conflict show relatively well armed Russian infantry (take a look at the video of them doing house to house search, etc.). 

 

I've seen this video in few different segments now. Really shows that Ukraine is controlling the narrative and winning the info war. 

You could well be right. Ukraine and Russia are both fighting a propaganda war, but Ukraine is much better at it. You would think that they at least have decent rifles. I have seen some videos from the Russian side, showing house to house search in Mariopolis mostly. A lot of those are Chechen and they don’t look that impressive either, but they do have decent weaponry.

 

Russia has definitely fielded a lot of conscripts and Putin calling up 135k more in a hurry shows this as well. I don’t think that part is propaganda.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Buckeye]

27 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

You could well be right. Ukraine and Russia are both fighting a propaganda war, but Ukraine is much better at it. You would think that they at least have decent rifles. I have seen some videos from the Russian side, showing house to house search in Mariopolis mostly. A lot of those are Chechen and they don’t look that impressive either, but they do have decent weaponry.

 

Russia has definitely fielded a lot of conscripts and Putin calling up 135k more in a hurry shows this as well. I don’t think that part is propaganda.

Hey Spek,

Just to clarify your statement about “Putin calling up 135k more,” I read that that headline is a little misleading as Russia has two drafts a year (one in the Spring) where they draft approximately 135k troops. So while it does appear that Russia is adding to their troop levels (and they may certainly need it) it may be also a little bit of “lucky” timing.

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Buckeye

[SharperDingaan]

17 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Hey Spek,

Just to clarify your statement about “Putin calling up 135k more,” I read that that headline is a little misleading as Russia has two drafts a year (one in the Spring) where they draft approximately 135k troops. So while it does appear that Russia is adding to their troop levels (and they may certainly need it) it may be also a little bit of “lucky” timing.

 

 

There are also the recent BBC reports of widespread dissention within the ranks, and refusal to fight. The old fodder is being replaced, and 'disciplined' in places where there are no cameras. This is Russia; expect some viscous fire fights, war crimes, and 'eliminations'.

 

SD

 

[mcliu]

BBC also reported this: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60522454.

 

Ukraine has honoured 13 soldiers who were killed defending a tiny island after reportedly swearing at a Russian ship that ordered them to surrender.

In unverified audio clips, the borders guards defending Zmiinyi Island in the Black Sea are told to "lay down your weapons" or "be bombed".

"Russian warship, go to hell," they respond.

Ukraine says they were then killed by air and sea strikes. Russia denies the account, saying they all surrendered.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has awarded each of the guards the posthumous title of "Hero of Ukraine".

"On our Zmiinyi Island, defending it to the last, all the border guards died heroically," Mr Zelensky said.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/snake-island-ukraine-russia-survivors-alive-intl/index.html

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

There are also the recent BBC reports of widespread dissention within the ranks, and refusal to fight. The old fodder is being replaced, and 'disciplined' in places where there are no cameras. This is Russia; expect some viscous fire fights, war crimes, and 'eliminations'.

 

SD

 

SD - are you expecting Russia to regroup and resume the assault or kind of keep it status quo? I'm positioned for the former. 

[Libs]

https://faridaily.substack.com/p/now-were-going-to-fck-them-all-whats?s=r

 

Fascinating article. Russian elites are angry at the west - not Putin. Forget about regime change, folks....

[Spekulatius]

6 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

SD - are you expecting Russia to regroup and resume the assault or kind of keep it status quo? I'm positioned for the former. 

I expect a regrouping and a new attack, presumably in the east.

 

As for regime change, I don't think that's something one can bet on and it's quite unlikely.

[SharperDingaan]

1 minute ago, lnofeisone said:

SD - are you expecting Russia to regroup and resume the assault or kind of keep it status quo? I'm positioned for the former. 

 

The intent would seem to be resume assault, but ability suggests otherwise.

Tanks/transport don't move with no gas, guns/launchers don't fire with no bullets/shells/missiles, troops don't move when commanders are dead. It's also doubtful that Putin can afford troops coming home, spreading 'tales from the front'.

 

The more troops in the south, the less in the north, and the more exposed the czar becomes.

And if that military is not entirely 'on board', the rink opens up a bit.

 

Interesting times.

 

SD  

[Pelagic]

5 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

the whole video is inconsistent but these are not likely Russian conscripts. They sound more like pro-ukrainian troops from Donbass. They are complaining about being on the Russian territory. Few inconsistencies:

 

1) Accents of several speakers match up closer to ukrainian (ukranians roll certain letters)

2) The content of what they are saying around 0:58 which is not transcribed, it sounds like "return us to Donbass"

3) The video is confusing. At first they say "we are soldiers" but then they say "we are ordinary civilians, coal miners, factory workers, and students."

4) Around minute 1:06, they are saying that they are facing GRADs, artillery, mortar shells. Those are russian weapons so doesn't match up that russian conscripts would be fighting their own.

5) 119th brigade of russian troops involved in ukranian theater is the Iskander missile brigade. People in the video don't look the part. 

 

Most videos of the conflict show relatively well armed Russian infantry (take a look at the video of them doing house to house search, etc.). 

 

I've seen this video in few different segments now. Really shows that Ukraine is controlling the narrative and winning the info war. 

Pro-Russian territorial forces from Donbas most likely. Guy on the far left (rear of truck) has red armbands.

 

Ukraine has plenty of grad rocket systems too, both countries share a lot of the same weaponry. And Ukranians likely never had time to pull forces from the Donbas area to defend Sumy. 

[no_free_lunch]

8 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Was wondering if they would start taking the fight to the enemy. Tough situation though...this isnt really all of Russia as an enemy, its pretty much one guy calling the shots, Putin...remain defensive and Putin is clearly the bad guy...they are just  protecting themselves...go too much on the offensive and it makes it easier for Putin to act like he was right all along and maybe has an easier time rallying everyone against the enemy...TBH the majority of Russians are also victims of Putin, not to the degree that Ukraine is obviously...but still victims. 

 

Imagine some Ukrainian guy loads a truck full of fertilizer/diesel and somehow makes it to Moscow and lets it loose...would they be justified? Maybe there are no civilian casualties, maybe there are. How would that change global perception? Perception of Ukrainian supporters in Russia? Does that actually harm Ukraine more by aiding Putins propaganda?

 

Generally I like the idea of strategically hitting them at home, makes it a little more real for Putin maybe. Too bad they didnt have a way to get at the Eagles Nest...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin's_Palace

 

 

 

 

I have heard, from Russians living in Canada that there actually is a lot of support for the war in Russia. Clearly many disapprove but overall yes, support.  Not that it matters and I guess it's maybe 60 40 but yes lots of support.  People talk about MSM and how it lies about the war, this is how it lies.  It inflates our perception of issues in Russia.  It doesn't lie about EVERYTHING but it does lie about little things. Judging by American movies I feel the population can only support what it sees as a winnable war. 

 

Anyways it doesn't matter. It's all self defense.  I really think you are underestimating what is happening in Ukraine. All this moral stuff goes right out the window when children become targets. 

 

Ukraine is not a little pussycat that got stepped on.  Russia is a lion then so is Ukraine.  Ukraine will strike back, Russians will die.  Stop the war and it will stop.

 

The west will continue to support Ukraine because they are not so stupid.  Those that are likely to swing, they are already sold. Let's let it unfold. 

Edited April 1, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[lnofeisone]

7 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

Pro-Russian territorial forces from Donbas most likely. Guy on the far left (rear of truck) has red armbands.

 

Ukraine has plenty of grad rocket systems too, both countries share a lot of the same weaponry. And Ukranians likely never had time to pull forces from the Donbas area to defend Sumy. 

I also thought it was pro-russian troops from Donbass but 0:34 they are saying how they were surrounded in Sumy. Russian troops encricled Sumy but not the other way around. Very confusing video and hard to prove authenticity.